Fear The Chorizo

thank goodness...

Guerra's split sucks this year

MLB should add the horns, vuvuzelas, and stupid xylophone drums to the list of prohibited items from ballparks...keep that crap in other sports that are more painful to watch

I'm pretty much set on hoping against all hope that Grisham is still with the brewer organization this time tomorrow...even if it means punting on any significant trades to help the mlb club.

And another homer for Grisham And a run scoring single....... Wow I'm pumped he's only our 6th best prospect right now according to some services...we must have 3 cy young winners and 2 HOF infielders stashed somewhere down on the farm. Pretty fortunate for the 30th ranked system!! There is a major lack of recency bias in prospect ranking services - he is easily a top 25 prospect in all of baseball...Grisham is a monster right now and has always carried better peripherals than Hiura in terms of walk and k rates.

This year's deadline is weird...like really weird. I'm sure activity is going to pick up, but to this point the marquee player moved (Stroman) was dealt to a team that isn't considered a contender. Seems like there is plenty of smoke on some deals, but the glut of NL "contenders" is gumming things up and I'm pretty sure the obvious sellers are trying to hold out until the last minute to drive the pricetags up. That may wind up backfiring, as alot of these teams may just wind up sitting on their hands and grinding out the rest of the year. Particularly in the NL, it's the Dodgers and everyone else - even with picking up a few key pieces, every other NL team would be a huge series underdog against the Dodgers, so the calculus may be to largely stand pat and hope for a 83-win Cardinals-esque postseason run. The AL is much different considering the there are fewer teams in wildcard contention and they have better overall records - they should be jumping at the chance to upgrade their rosters. But to this point that hasn't happened.

Yeah, it's pretty apparent that his stuff is not that of a frontline starter...he could definitely become a mlb rotation piece and have a good career if he improves his command, but he needs to live on the corners to do so. Basically his upside is Zach Davies - while his downside is that he's a flash in the pan who flamed out in mlb before ever settling in as a starter at this level.

You're basing your conclusion on the fact that they made a minor deal for a depth pitching piece two days before the deadline. All I have to say is Wow. Stop drinking your Brewer Kool aid and face the facts. Without Yelich this team would be sub par. Totally, thank goodness someone found a way to acquire him...who was that again?

Yeah, saying the Brewers need to include veteran 2 month rentals in order to secure pitching help makes zero sense, unless the teams they are talking to are contenders just flush with pitching that could use Moose or Grandal to shore up a glaring hole on their own rosters. This tweet really should have nothing to do with Thor or quality starters on noncontending teams this season.

I agree that getting Yelich was a nice addition...

Brewers could be targeting one of those young starters if Grisham is headed that way...SD has more pitching coming down on the farm, so they'd likely be willing to listen on some of those youngsters if they thought they had better arms not too far off (or they were going to go get Thor)

Yates maybe?

Any chance the Mets traded for Stroman to wind up flipping him elsewhere for a better prospect package? I know what they've stated in the press since the trade, but they could definitely get a better haul by packaging Stroman/Wheeler for a team who is in dire need of starting pitching help but is hesitant to go after Wheeler so soon after an IL stint when he's just a rental... just speculating - the Mets buying at this stage is just confusing. I still would be shocked to see Thor moved.

Where are the potential landing spots for Grandal where the Brewers could get the most bang for the buck? I've seen Dodgers, but what about the Yankees, Astros, As? I don't think the Brewers would want to deal Grandal within the NL and actually have him help another postseason contender. At this point it's silly to think the Brewers plan on "selling" with no intent on trying to reach the postseason this year. They are 1 GB in the standings of the division lead with their competitors facing each other to start this week. Back to the possibility of dealing Grandal or even Moose - I think the only way it would happen is if they can get either a MLB starter that has some remaining team control beyond 2019 in return to help shore up the rotation, or if they can get a quality prospect for him. I actually would prefer they dangle Moose for this same purpose, but I think there may be even fewer ideal landing spots for a 3B rental at this point. Another option is to fully explore trading Aguilar for pitching help, then using Grandal as a 1B platoon option when facing LHP.

So what's up with the waiver trade aspect of the july 31 deadline? Have all the waiver postings already happened? Not sure how the deadline date change impacts that side of things, because I feel like prior years had waiver postings happen over the first few weeks in august and gave teams well into that month to get a deal done. With the nonwaiver trade market being very slow to get going, are waiver trades just not going to happen? Beginning to think next to nothing significant happens over the next few days.

Exactly - would you rather have the players the Brewers gave up for Yelich and a better-ranked farm system, or Yelich? I mean... The thing about these prospect rankings is they ignore the young talent in the big leagues that's no longer eligible for the lists. So yes, the Brewers' system wasn't where it was a few years ago, but they have Yelich, Moustakas (arguably), Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Hiura, Hader, and Burnes to show for it. Exactly - it's all about timing on when these lists come out. Find me another organization whose farm system has directly led (either via trade or MLB callups) to having a league MVP, AS 3B, AS Starter, AS Closer, last week's NL player of the week (Hiura), and 3 other solid young arms who still project to be MLB regulars over the course of the past two seasons - if any team's farm has even come close to doing that in recent years, their overall minor league system ranking is probably pretty low too. Additionally, there are still plenty of Brewer minor leaguers having really good seasons stretched across the minors - many of whom have pedigree of becoming quality MLB players - to take a 2/3 of the way through the regular season system ranking with much more than a grain of salt.

He has a BABIP of .438. I don't really care how much loud contact you make...that is waaay inflated. Add in his K% north of 30% and his .327 average is a huge mirage. It isn't like his K% has dropped much either, still nearly 30% the last month. Last two weeks...just as bad. Enjoy it while it lasts because Hiura is probably going to have a hard fall back down to earth eventually. Great player, great future, and great start to his career...but his numbers right now have a whole lot of luck inducing them. There is really nothing at all in Hiura's numbers that has to do with luck based on actual outcomes over a small sample size - no doubt the BABIP will drop at some point, but if that drop happens along with seeing even a slight drop in K rate and increased BB rate, his OPS won't be that impacted. I can think of only a couple base hits Hiura has had resulting from weak contact, and quite a few more loud outs or hard hit grounders right at fielders. The BABIP will drop and normalize after more ABs, as will the batting average - but I fully expect an established Hiura to be a consistent 0.900 OPS player, which I guess would be a hard fall back down considering his MLB production to date is that of a 1.000 OPS player.

There are also only 5 players currently across MLB with a higher OPS and at least the same number of at bats as Hiura - Yelich, Bellinger, Trout, Garver, and Rendon. While his K rate has dropped a bit, he still has 1-2 games/week where he'll strike out multiple times...that's the only reason I'd expect his BA to deflate a bit, because when he puts the ball in play he makes plenty of loud contact. Defensively Hiura's nowhere near GG caliber, but he's serviceable - especially for the pop he has in his bat. A righthanded hitting 2B that comes to mind as a comp for where I think Hiura is headed as a player would be prime Jeff Kent. There's differences in K rate and other offensive stats, but admittedly Hiura's MLB sample size is much too small to just line up statlines. Kent was a guy who played well enough defensively at 2B to win an MVP and live at the AS game because of his bat through the best years of his career, and I recall him having a similar approach in hitting to all fields.

I think DJ was also good at recruiting at Vandy, which is pretty much any quality high school pitcher's first choice to go to college if they don't get drafted high enough as an 18 yr old - that's essentially where he really made his name as a pitching guru...but I'd argue it's easy to look good when you have 2-3 1st round arms on your collegiate staff every year. I don't know what role a pitching coach has in game planning with the catcher/scouts on pitch sequencing or how hitters are going to be attacked - that also appears to be a weakness of this team, although it's really tough to tell at times when the pitchers miss location constantly.

This pitching coach stuff is pretty tired to be rehashed in every flipping Reds in-game thread...IMO it's much more likely that this year's decline in pitching #'s has much more to do with some of these arms getting extended beyond their comfort limit down the stretch last season and through a long playoff run than the name on the back of a pitching coach's jersey who's telling them to locate their pitches better. Knebel's damaged UCL finally gives way in spring training 2019 after pitching with it for a few seasons - maybe that's a coincidence that it happened after he was pitching 1+ IP multiple days in a row from September and well into October last year...but I'm sure the extra use played a role. Jeffress was ridden hard through the first 3/4 of the season, and it was obvious in crunch time that he was probably the least reliable pen arm - he showed up to spring training with arm fatigue and hasn't been close to the same pitcher he was during most of last year. There were threads expressing concern with innings limits on guys like Peralta and even Burnes for a time last year, now we're suddenly shocked that they aren't instant Cy Young contenders this season given it's their first full MLB season? Last year, guys like Taylor Williams and Burnes showed flashes, but were ultimately replaced by better relievers (Soria, Cedeno, eventually Woodruff and Burnes). Overall, the makeup of the innings load of the 2019 brewer pitching staff is much different than last season despite many of the same names being around because roles have been juggled so much. Junior Guerra was their best starter through the first ~4 months of 2018. Davies was largely an afterthought. Chacin was really good from mid-May through the postseason last year, but it also wound up being the most IP he had in his career for a season...which I think has impacted him this season. The 2018 Brewers were able to lean on "bullpenning" down the stretch and in the postseason because they had a ton of quality late inning pen arms and quasi starters available once rosters expanded. We largely forget that around this time of year last season that bullpen was leaky at best as well. This year, the combination of injuries and role adjustments have actually led to a totally remade bullpen - I'd argue not having Hader in the same role he was last year to get 3-9 outs every appearance starting around inning #6 has severely hampered his impact and weakened the pen. Losing Knebel and having a diminished Jeffress left them no choice with the relievers they have in house.

In all honesty, this year's Brewers team can't sell - they are 2 games from 1st in their division and in the mix for a WC berth...as frustrating as the past 6-7 weeks have been overall following this slide, playoffs are still well within their reach. I don't see any way the other NL Central teams actually get aggressive with upgrading their current rosters, either. If I'm DS, I explore trades that can improve their overall roster flexibility (the Aguilar to Tampa trade is interesting if they can get a good return and Shaw is ready to come back up), and do a soft buy in picking up a couple late inning relievers. There's only 1 week left until the deadline, and by all accounts the market has been about as hot as the past few offseason free agency periods.

I recall plenty of discussion about the likelihood of the brewers taking the bull penning approach for a full season early this year... Yeah, not so much - I get the missing Johnson aspect, but why not also look at the likelihood of an extended 2018 run that included heavy bullpen use with key relievers late into october as a factor with how crappy this team has pitched in 2019?

I don't know if the decision to IBB Suarez is as cut and dry as we all think with hindsight being 20/20 - it's rare to put on the go ahead run in the 9th when you have a lead unless you are looking at a great hitter with a platoon advantage. The book is typically to make that go ahead run hit his way on to score, which is exactly what Suarez did. Had they walked him he was going to face a lefty hitter who could still tie the game with a single, and had he gapped one Suarez probably scores from first and we're all pissed he walked him to face a lefty. JJ just made an awful pitch, and I also question Grandal's pitch selection in that spot when he was throwing hangers all inning. However you slice it, that's a gut punch in a game that about 45 minutes ago nobody saw as being a bad loss until Saladino hit another salami. Maybe the better approach is to go after Suarez on the fringes of the zone to see if you can get him to chase in that spot to get himself out.

Make it 10 runs in the 6th for the cards. Reds pitching coach must suck...

Niceeee Do we have a first here? A reply off of your own post? Probably not but it seems like a rarity, even for here. I think that's been done before...the true unicorn is the poster who gets into a fight with themself by quoting something they wrote and disagree with it - those are the special ones!