Fear The Chorizo

Phils will have plenty of offers for Neshek if they hold him until the deadline. In fact, his trade value will probably approach a level that is uncomfortable for a team like Milwaukee. Would a mid-tier MIF or OF prospect + Jungmann get it done? I'd think Jungmann still has some value with the years of team control, and frankly he's likely going to be pushed out of Brewer rotation plans by some of their other young arms.

Just because prospects haven't been playing long enough to reach higher minor league levels before being traded doesn't make them less valuable or less regarded. The Cubs gave up their best hitting and pitching prospects in the package for Quintana, regardless of the levels they were at - they also had nothing at their higher minor league levels in terms of prospects that were as talented as Jimenez or Cease. I'm guessing pretty much every single player that was in this year's all star game made a stop or two in A or A+ ball on their way to being fantastic MLB players. And by the way, while players like Almora and Happ were still eligible for prospect rankings last year, Jimenez was ranked above both of them in the Cub organization. And the "Rome is burning" shtick is just foolish - I truly hope Stearns isn't basing organizational moves on a game of one-upmanship against the defending WS champions who happen to have unlimited resources and better overall talent at the MLB level. The Brewers have had a surprising 1st half based on expectations, while the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates have all been very disappointing based on their projections/expectations. That combination is why Milwaukee still finds themselves atop the division by 3.5 games, even while in the midst of this horrifying 2 game losing streak. Stearns can't make the mistake of knee-jerk reaction trades at this point. To me this team has more of a feel to the 2007 team that got off to a great start, scuffled through midseason, then wound up finishing a few games over 0.500. Part of the fun with this year's team is watching so many of their young players come into their own at the MLB level while still being competitive in a top-heavy NL. This is not the year to empty out the farm to try and make the playoffs when your likely competitors to get to a World Series are loaded (Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs). I agree that 1-2 moves to further bolster the bullpen may be the best path forward before July 31, especially if those relievers aren't just 2 month rentals. That along with potentially shifting Hader to the rotation or getting a healthy Anderson and Woodruff back as options will help.

Schwarber is at 555 MLB plate appearances for his career thus far - just enough to qualify for 1 season although the MLB average for PA's for a heart of the order hitter (i.e., #5 hitter) is around 700 over 162 games. His career MLB OPS is 0.763 and he's a 0.210 hitter who can't play defense. He also has 157 MLB strikeouts (28% K rate). That's Adam Dunn K rate territory, only he's OPS-ing close to 100 points lower than Dunn's career average. If Schwarber is going to be the next great left-handed slugger, he's got to be a different player than what he's shown at the MLB level to date.

Gray would cost the cubs a bat like schwarber or happ to headline a deal to oakland plus prospects (if they have any more), imo. It will take part of their young position player core to make that trade. Makes sense they are looking for more starters, even with adding quintana they still have Lackey or Montgomery in their 5 man rotation.

I agree 100% Ennder, was more or less trying to make the point that the cubs aren't looking at their minor league system the same way the Brewers need to as a small market team that can't buy it's way out of problems. Also, as of 2020 the cubs will control tv rights for their games...that essentially will make them able to print money for team payroll, right around when many of their young players will be due big paydays. It's an uneven playing field, their window is much easier for them to keep open regardless of what they have coming up through the minors.

I think a good comparison is the game of golf - advances in ball and more importantly club technology have made hitting a golf ball 300 yards trivial on the pro tour, when several decades ago it was something that only a handful of the best golfers in the world could consistently do. Alterations to the baseball are definitely possible and frankly probable depending on changing materials and manufacturing techniques - I think it's more a product of today's athletic training/sports science and drastic improvements to bats, particularly maple. The wood is more dense and it allows for thinner handles and more aerodynamic barrels that help with batspeed and solid contact. Couple that with the way baseball is played today with much less care about striking out and giving yourself 3 strikes to swing hard in case you hit one solid, HRs are going to increase. I'd like to see the mound raised a bit to give pitchers a bit more downward angle toward the plate

The Cubs won the world series last year...that's the whole goal of this baseball thing, and their fan base rightfully shouldn't give two craps about them emptying their farm system to do it. Quality mlb pitching depth looks like something they are going to need to keep throwing money and prospects at, however. Brewers and the rest of the NL need to hope some of those pitching moves flame out on them and they will become baseball's version of the 85 Bears...a ton of talent, a city that loves them, 1 title and not much else. For their situation, you make this trade to give your current mlb roster the best chance to make a run...who cares in their market if it means the minor leagues are depleted? Their entire position player roster is either still pre arbitration and talented, or veterans locked into untradeable contracts. They'll have time to rebuild their farm system while their mlb team keeps winning.

I really don't think this impacts the Brewers at all for 2017 - Cubs improved their rotation with a good starting pitcher at the cost of further gutting their farm system. The Brewers mash lefties that don't have lights out stuff, so any head to head matchups against Quintana aren't going to sway heavily in their favor. I view this move as more of a longterm fix to the Cubs' starting pitching holes - Lackey appears done, Arietta probably won't be back in Chicago and has been uneven this year, and Hendricks isn't Greg Maddux. Factor in an aging and expensive Lackey and a guy like Quintana with a team-friendly contract makes great sense to them heading into next year. That probably gives them budget to sign another veteran free agent starter, and start exploring contract extensions to some of their young position players. If the Brewers were going to trade multiple prospects for impact starting pitching before the deadline, I'd rather it be for Gray or Stroman.

Let me preface this by stating that I highly doubt the Giants would be interested in trading him, but wanted to discuss this anyway. Bumgarner is just coming back from his dirt bike injury and is rehabbing in effort to rejoin the Giants MLB club after the AS break. His current contract has him under team control at about 12 million per season through the 2019 season, at which time he becomes a FA. Say he comes back for a few starts and proves to be healthy and reasonably effective, even though he is still building his arm strength back up...what do people think it would take to pry this guy away from the Giants via trade, and would it be worth the gamble to acquire a bonafide ace under a friendly contract for the stretch run/postseason, and the next two years? I'm not sure if I've missed an article or statement from the Giants that they're just not interested in trading him away, but their organization needs a retooling that frankly will take more than 1-2 seasons for them to compete in their division...I personally think he'd look pretty good pitching for the Crew come August 1st, even if it means dealing some significant prospects. This wouldn't just be a rental, either.

The fact that this team, with the lowest opening day payroll by a fair margin, can have a 5.5 game lead on their division at the AS break while missing their highest profile hitter in the lineup for basically half their games (Braun), is a testament to how much team-controlled depth has been put onto their 40-man roster in a very short time. Aside from Braun, Peralta, Garza, and Nelson (who was up for only part of 2014), essentially the entire MLB roster has been turned over since the last time the Brewers thought they could contend in 2014...that's crazy.

Is it just me or has ESPN been hyping this HR derby for the better part of the last month? Seemingly ever since their staff purge a few months ago, their baseball coverage (actual baseball coverage, not video of the monthly Tebow HR or a Sports Science snippet on Aaron Judge's last HR exit velocity) has been garbage. Is it that ESPN is televising the derby and nothing else for All Star festivities?

In general the contact play shouldn't be put on if the defense brings the infield in - and it never should be on with 0 outs. I would much rather put on a safety squeeze than the contact play anyways, simply because I think the contact play is asking the baserunner to process too much at the point of contact that it leads to plenty of easy putouts (grounders right to 3b, 1b, pitcher - or hard hit grounders to middle infielders playing in) or getting doubled off 3B if the hitter swings and misses or lines out to the left side of the IF. With the way the game has changed offensively, I'd put the contact play behind a position player sac-bunting a guy to 2nd in the order of things teams I root for should do (and I don't like giving away outs).

Then things keep going back the other way again. I guess I'm not waiting so much for us to collapse as I am for the Cubs to wake up and go on a tear. I don't know enough about them to know why they've been so mediocre for 90 games, whether it's just terrible luck or something more. I just can't bring myself to believe they are suddenly a .500 quality team after being a 100 win quality team a year ago . And it's not like they were just an aging team due for a collapse. They still have young talent. The Cubs' starting rotation is pitching nowhere near as well as they were last season. Many of their veteran position players (Heyward, Zobrist) have been fighting nagging injuries. Montero proved to be a clubhouse cancer that didn't feel he got enough credit for last year's success considering he was basically replaced by Contreras down the stretch and in the playoffs. And while the Cubs do have young talent, much of it has struggled at times this season as young talent often does. Probably doesn't help that Russel is dealing with a very public and confusing divorce process with his wife. Also, they really miss Fowler at the top of their lineup and playing CF every day - Almora and others are fine there defensively, but those young guys can't set the table in front of Bryant and Rizzo yet. That loss would be much less pronounced had Scwharber been the offensive player everyone thought he was - his struggles this season have really hurt them. I still think he's a very talented hitter, but aside from 1B he shouldn't be playing in the field. I wonder if they missed a golden opportunity this offseason to trade him to the AL for another starting pitcher or boatload of prospects when his value couldn't have been higher. People forget that he really hasn't had to face much MLB pitching that had a set gameplan with how to pitch him (couple months in late 2015 and essentially postseason due to his knee injury).

The Cubs' struggles stem from numerous areas: 1. Starters aren't all competing for this year's Cy Young 2. Fowler has proven to be a big loss at the top of their order. 3. Turns out Schwarber isn't Babe Ruth - I think they may have missed the boat on dealing him for a haul this offseason, now they've committed to a streaky hitter with pop without a position in the NL. 4. Not the same lockdown pen without Chapman 5. Young players tend to struggle at times, and baseball is really hard 6. Nothing but off-field distractions for a young team - bound to be a hangover. All that being said, nobody else in the NL Central is better, so they'll probably win the division. Unless their pitching dramatically improves, I don't think they'd be favored in a series against anyone else making the playoffs in the NL this year.

At his current (and light) usage rate, Hader will still end up with around 100IP if he stays in the pen through the end of the season. There's still 3 full months of the regular season - keeping Hader on the big league club, even in the bullpen, allows him to pitch through a much longer season than anything he's seen at this point of his career as a prospect/minor leaguer. Giving him another inning or two a week would get him close 125IP if his performance warrants it. If the Brewers find a way to make the playoffs he may get a few more innings of relief work, or if they miss the playoffs the Brewers could just line him up for a few simulated games through October to stretch him back out a bit before the offseason. I agree with FV, until he develops better command of his full arsenal of pitches I think he stays in the pen, and reaching a predetermined innings limit before being declared a MLB starter going into a season isn't a requirement.

If the "gurus" are right, he needs to get to around 150 IP this inning if he wants to stay on track to be a full-time MLB starter in the next year or two. I'm of the opinion that each scenario is its own animal - if a young pitcher brought up fulltime as a reliever is still getting enough work in on the side via simulated games, he doesn't need to log a certain number of actual game innings to justify a starter's role the following year. Chris Sale was mentioned earlier as an arm that was in the pen for a few MLB seasons before transitioning back to starting. The year Sale was drafted (2010), he logged 103 college innings as a starter followed by a combo of 10 minor league and 23 MLB innings for the White Sox from the pen. That is a total of 146 innings that includes his amateur season. In 2011, Sale threw 71 innings exclusively from the bullpen over 58 appearances. Then in 2012 he resumed status as a fulltime starter and logged 192 IP. If Hader can get comfortable breaking into the bigs in a bullpen role and work with MLB coaches during side sessions, I'd say stick him where he's comfortable and don't worry too much about what his IP total will be.

This thread having 16 pages and counting speaks to how unexpectedly well this year's Brew Crew are playing! Yes, they have warts (any team with the lowest payroll in all of baseball would, particularly while missing it's highest paid player a good deal of this season), but they continue to play an exciting brand of baseball - and it's great seeing the youngsters start to settle in and produce at the MLB level.

One has to assume the Cubs will inevitably go on a run, but in order to do so they need to pitch better...you have to wonder if the workloads of Arrieta and Lester over the past few seasons have taken a toll, Lackey's just done, and Hendricks just isn't the 2nd coming of Maddux. They'll undoubtedly trade for a veteran starter. Their lineup can score in bunches, but it can also be shut down with how much they swing and miss (similar to the Brewers). There have been several stretches where you think they've found their stride and will take off playing an extended stretch of 0.700 baseball, but they follow those 6-7 games stretches with a week of clunkers. They have warts offensively that are exposed when starting pitching is so uneven.

This portion of their schedule comes at a perfect time relative to the trade deadline - if the Brewers are going to win the division or remain in serious contention for a W.C. berth, they need to go on a roll this next month. If they scuffle and open the door for other NL Central teams to overtake them and lose sight of the W.C. spots, they'll have ample time to make some moves at the deadline to improve the young talent base of the organization for 2018.

No matter what 5 minute scouting tape, 'Perfect Game' highlight reel, or 3 paragraph report any poster reads on any player, the truth is there's no way to tell who ends up having the best MLB careers of anyone drafted last night. For every Bryce Harper or Arod drafted 1.1 there are Matt Bushes, Brady Aikens, Luke Hochevars, Bullingtons, etc who end up either flaming out due to injury, personal problems, or just not being able to be all-star caliber players at the big league level. My take on last night's picks has more to do with the current health of the Brewer organization compared to years' past. Just 2-3 seasons ago, the three picks last night would probably move straight to the top of their respective position rankings within the poor Brewer farm system. Now, there are multiple players at 2nd, OF, and P scattered throughout their system that are better prospects today, mainly due to them developing for several years as professionals. The cupboards are far from bare. For the guys drafted last night, I'm hoping it'll take awhile to hear about them doing anything down on the farm...Hiura should get the elbow surgery done ASAP and make a full recovery before taking his 1st minor league AB next season. Lemons should essentially get shut down in terms of pitching and instead get to work on his body and overall arm strength (throwing/long toss program in concert with other training). Lutz needs to get signed and then you let him get some AB's later this year before getting his stance/swing adjusted over the winter to tap into his power potential - he'll struggle initially, but he's got time to develop. Bottom line is, get these kids (20 and two 18 yr olds) set up to succeed starting in 2018 and let the current crop of minor league talent down in rookie ball through A+ continue to sort themselves out.

Cub payroll - $172 Million Cardinal payroll - $151 Million Pirate payroll - $100 Million Red payroll - $93 Million Brewer payroll - $63 Million (Combined Matt Garza and Ryan Braun are roughly 40% of their 2017 payroll) I've seen enough of this Brewers team who's leading their division after 2 months of the season to really be entertained watching them - they obviously have holes and warts with a roster that's easily the smallest payroll in all of baseball, and with their star player being knicked up and out of the lineup a good deal recently. But, they have a diverse lineup that at times can really pound the baseball and also put pressure on defenses. Pitching will be a question mark for this team all season, which would be expected for a team with a $63 Million dollar payroll in 2017. Do I think the Brewers are still going to be leading this division at the AS break? probably not. However, it's not because they are going to crater. To me, this team is very likely to outperform its preseason pythag record, and could do so by a pretty significant number of wins. With how bleh a vast majority of the NL is aside from a few elite clubs, they may very well be in contention for one of the wild card spots well past Labor Day - particularly if the Cards can't figure out how to hit and the Cubs continue their inconsistent season to avoid the expected cream of the division from running away and hiding.

My theory is we're talking about a smattering of early season AB's that 1 hot week can still make statistically insignificant.

To me it's more about flaws in developing pitchers compared to drafting poorly - coupled with unpredictability of pitching injuries derailing promising careers. The Brewers had some talented arms never amount to anything at the MLB level due to injury (Rogers, Gold, etc), which many organizations do - it's not having any organizational depth of pitching talent that was being developed properly that has hamstrung the Brewers through most of their existence. Not being able to pay top dollar for free agent starting pitching or relievers obviously hurts their ability to sustain longterm MLB pitching success - they also play in a hitter friendly park. The fact the one homegrown, drafted and developed "unicorn" starter had his best years during some of the Brewers' darkest (Sheets) before burning out makes Brewer pitching history seem that much darker. Gallardo was an effective #2-caliber starter that was developed, too. As an organization, they need to bring in ace-caliber pitching talent via the draft at least once every 3 years - that just hasn't happened enough.

Warts included, this is an extremely fun team to watch.

You don't steal 3rd with no outs or two outs - you do steal 3rd with 1 out. Same goes for trying to go from 1st to 3rd on a single, or trying to turn a double into a triple - if you're 50/50 to make it, the good, aggressive baseball play is to try and get on 3rd with 1 out. With no outs or two outs, you've pretty much got to be guaranteed making it to third safely to make it a good baseball play.