Fear The Chorizo

.323 .286 .240 .367 .423 .321 .294 .353 Those are the batting averages of today's Brewer starting lineup after today's game. And the scrub hitting .240 belted 3HR...not a bad way to kick the season off offensively for who are likely to be the core everyday players for this team.

I only have gamecast to look at...is Lohse being squeezed right now or is it just bad locations on the program? Practically every pitch is in gamecast's strike zone, yet he's walking guys.

If Trout stays healthy, he might get to 500 by the time he's 33. You have to keep in mind that he's still probably 3-5 years away from entering his prime. Highly unlikely, even if he continues to be the Mike Trout we've come to know. He'd have to average 40 HR a year over 11 seasons to reach 500. As great a start as he's had to his career, he hasn't hit more than 30 so far. Trout's on my list because he's one of the few players that's both young and talented enough to play that long at a high level to get to 500 HR. Saying he could get there by 33 is a little too ambitious IMO, even by Trout's standards.

Beltre was one I thought about including, I think his age made me rule him out - definitely has had a solid run of production in TX though. That free agent year of 48 HR in 2004 sure looks like one of those outliers created with some chemical help now, doesn't it? He OPS'd 1.017 that season and has come within 100 points of that only twice since then.

utley out with the flu today, per espn...

Did he ever show on any prospect list? Baseball America ranked Davis as the Brewers' 16th best prospect after the 2012 season...no way there were 15 other prospects in the Brewer minor leagues at that time that will become better MLB players than Davis with how he's performed recently. since recent top 100 lists have barely included any Brewers, I highly doubt he ever got close to making any MLB-wide prospect lists. Those lists are typically weighted heavily toward top draft picks and international signings anyway, and look more at a player's ceiling than what their actual minor league production or development progress may be. Players like Davis get overlooked because the physical tools aren't as dominant as the potential stars that dot those top-100 lists.

Over the past 20 years, MLB saw a huge spike in the # of players who were able to hit or approach hitting 500HR in their careers. No surprise to me how that coincides with the steroid/PED eras, but that's a discussion for another day. I took a look at the list of active HR leaders in MLB today, and was shocked at how few players currently have a legit shot at 500 HR. Even with the parks getting smaller, many of today's best players are nowhere near the 500HR club and even the young stars already find themselves with an uphill battle. I think pitching has gotten better and I also think at least having a drug testing policy has helped to bring career arcs back to historical averages - you don't see players jacking 40+HR per year into their late 30's or even 40's anymore. Here's the current list of who I think still has even the slightest of chances at 500HR: Pujols - 492 (2nd behind ARod on active list, if you count ARod as active) - Pujols will get there this season. 3 seasons ago many assumed 700HR was likely for Pujols, just 2+ seasons into his crazy contract and 600 is starting to look like a pretty big hill to climb for an aging slugger who can't stay healthy anymore. Dunn - 442 (3rd) - Dunn is 34, and IMO is likely to get to 500HR only if an AL team wants to give him a new deal after this season. 2014 is huge for Dunn, because if he has an off year it may be difficult for him to find a team willing to sign a DH who has been making progressively more outs and less contact as he ages. David Ortiz - 432 (6th) - Big Papi IMO is about 50/50 to reach 500, but he's 38 and would likely need 3 solid seasons by his career averages to get there. Miggy Cabrera - 366 (9th) - Cabrera's 31, and barring a pile of injuries costing him multiple seasons in his early 30's, Cabrera will get to 500 - I don't see him reaching 600 though. Fielder - 285 (17th) - Fielder is 30, and playing in Texas should give his power #'s a boost...215 HR is a lot to hit, but if he can transition into a DH role to prolong his career I think he has an outside shot of getting to 500. Braun - 211 (30th) - Braun is also 30, but the PED suspension and thumb injury last year cost his chances dearly to reach 500HR. Unless the thumb injury subsides and he goes on a 2-3 season tear, I don't see it happening. I skipped over a bunch of other active players between Fielder and Braun who IMO are either too old or not the type of hitters who are capable of 250+ more HR in their careers. Mark Reynolds - 203 (32nd) - Surprised on two fronts - he's only 30, and he's this high up the list. I don't see his career lasting long enough to come close to hitting about 300 more HR, but it's still cool seeing him here. Jay Bruce - 166 (46th) - still only 27, Bruce plays in the right park and is the right type of hitter to approach 500HR. He could be around 280HR once he hits 30, which would give him a shot. Justin Upton - 135 (73rd) - at 26 years old, a great prime would give him a good chance, but 500's a long way off Giancarlo Stanton - 119 (83rd) - 24 yrs old, unlimited power. If he stays healthy, I think he'll get there. He's that good. Mike Trout - 64 HR at the age of 22 - give me 3 more great seasons of 30+ HR and he's in the conversation...too soon to tell though

Brewers up a whole 1 spot to #17 in ESPN's weekly "power rankings" after going 4-2 against last season's NL East winner and last season's World Series champ...while the Marlins jump 15 spots for going 5-2 at home against the Rockies and Padres. As pointless as power rankings are for baseball, it's still fun to try and find any sliver of sane reasoning behind them week to week.

Rickie's career trajectory got hampered several ways - first was that he was rushed a bit to the big leagues. At the time the Brewers were desparate for some of their talented prospects to get to Milwaukee, and Weeks was really the 1st of them to get an everyday job. He hit like crazy in the minors, but it was evident shortly after he started facing big league pitching that he needed alot of work recognizing pitches and shrinking the holes in his swing that pitchers could attack him at. His defense was atrocious early on, too. He seemed to be developing ok on those fronts while flashing the talent everyone knew he had until the wrist and hand injuries happened. Combine that with the bad ankle injury and now the hamstring injury last season, and alot of Rickie's explosiveness (hands at the plate and speed on the basepaths) appears to be gone. Even during his prime, Weeks has been a frustrating player, because he would go months doing basically nothing at the plate, then have a 3-week stretch where he'd crush everything in sight to bump his numbers back up to respectibility, then go ice cold just as fast and randomly as his hot streak started. While many don't put emphasis on it, over his career he's been generally terrible with runners in scoring position. Overally, he's had a very similar career as many other super high draft picks have had around the years Weeks was drafted - (Delmon Young, BJ Upton), and much better than many (Matt Bush, Jeff Niemann, Kyle Sleeth, etc).

Even if they aren't world beaters, it's still nice to have two veterans who have played 1st base on the roster - particularly nice that they hit from opposite sides of the plate. Both Reynolds and Overbay have gotten off to solid starts...not great and in places just so-so, but they're not going to be the black hole of suck that was 1B in 2013. Assuming good health, there are enough pieces on this team to be good, and the roster seems diverse enough to beat teams in multiple ways. Too early to tell statistically, especially with Segura's rough night at SS on Saturday, but I think their defense is going to be pretty solid along with having a team with a good OBP at the plate - two things not typical of the Brewers for quite some time.

Jameson Taillon, top pitching prospect of the Pirates and ranked the 22nd prospect in all of baseball this season according to baseball america, will need to get his elbow cut on and miss this season and some of 2015. That's a huge blow to their longterm rotation plans, and honestly a big boost to what the Brewers may be able to do in the division this year. Taillon was slated to start the season in AAA, but could have made their rotation to start the season if he didn't have a balky spring and if they weren't concerned about when his arby clock would start.

What I do know is that if "getting used to it" leads to our #3 hitter continuing to perform horribly, I think it sets up perfectly for another one of those 5-7 game off periods keeping Braun out of the lineup but also active - which wastes a roster spot and 90% of the time leads to the team retroactively DL-ing a player anyways. It's early, but he's had one single over a SS's out-stretched glove so far in 4 games. Starting to get very alarming, because if 9 months of relative rest isn't enough to heal things to be able to play effectively with it, surgery's the likely option. For a hitter, that kind of thumb/hand surgery could easily be a season-ender.

Red Sox fans lustily booing Braun and loving PED Papi currently, and ManRam during the mid 2000s is the height of hypocrisy. Don't forget Nomar, too. http://si.com/vault/cover/featured/9782/index.htm

Is Braun DHing because of something nagging? Or is it because RF in Boston is a ***** to play, the Brewers need more LH hitters, and Schafer gives them the best option to put a better OF defender and LH bat into the lineup?

I swear I saw him on the field recently...maybe spring training or more likely in an overtired haze flipping through ESPN classic.

Ejections are still going to happen plenty for players/managers arguing balls and strikes, throwing at batters, etc. I do think there's potential for the act of asking for a review leading to arguments/ejections - if a manager or team can't believe they have review such a terrible call and they let the umpire know how bad they think the call is, I can see a salty Joe West or some other ump who feels like he's being slighted popping off and ejecting someone before they even review the play.

Segura's got one of those "days off" to rest - he's probably fighting a nagging injury but the Brewers won't DL him. Instead they'll let one of their 25-man roster spots twist in the wind uselessly, even during part of a game that would be an ideal spot for him. The Brewers are notoriously great at that. Hold a guy out for up to a week before retroactively DL-ing him, all the while playing games with less than 25 bodies.

RR playing the matchup...up to the player put in a good position to produce now - c'mon Rickie not so much

shoot - if I'm the Braves' manager I make the pitching change right here with Harang at 90 pitches, the heart of the order up, and some shutdown relievers ready to go...

I don't know what's more impressive - how good Garza has pitched so far, or how bad the Brewers offense has been against Harang. and never mind, I guess the answer is bad Brewers offense after Garza gave up the HR

I just remember those get away games with Sheets on the hill and an atrocious starting lineup winning tons of games, because the sun/shadows set up in a way that hitters couldn't pick up rotation and had no chance laying off Sheets' curveball. Every one of those games had the potential for a no-no or a 15+ K outing, it seemed. looking at some of the images, that isn't the case today - it's as simple as nobody can hit right now.

not able to watch the game, but are there any shadow/sunlight issues going on right now? seems like neither team could hit their way out of a wet paper bag right now.

I believe the second one is a much easier mode to attack and this would be an incredibly effective way to do it, both by taking bases when they are being offered to you, but also by forcing the defense to return their shift to defend that bunt, therefore opening up the field on your power side to reach base on "normal" swings. If Fielder opts to try and lay a bunt down the 3rd base line every single time he's up, teams are still going to keep the shift on. So the premise of a power hitter forcing a defense to get out of a shift by bunting for a base hit isn't based in reality. Plus, I think the 50% conversion rate of a successful bunt for a base hit in Fielder's case is far from accurate. He can bunt down the 3B line, but alot of pitchers field their position well, and catchers can run out and grab the ball. Fielder would likely get thrown out on alot of bunt attempts by these two positions even on bunts going in the direction of the left side of the IF. On paper it sounds good, until you realize that you'd then be paying a guy $20 million bucks a year to try and lay down bunts and then barrel his 280-lbs down the 1B line to try and beat out a throw from the catcher or pitcher. And actually, Fielder will probably be facing shifts significantly more than 70 times. In 2013 almost half his plate appearances occurred with nobody on base, likely times when a shift was on. 12 of Fielder's 25 HR and 18 of his 36 doubles were hit with nobody on base, when there was likely a shift on. So unless you're advocating for great hitters to sacrifice 1/2 their opportunities to drive themselves in with a HR or get themselves on by just being a great hitter, it just isn't a good baseball play, IMO.

anybody that's tried bunting a 93mph fastball with movement on it knows it's no walk in the park. And as positive as it sounds for every hitter to take a single every time by bunting if there's a crazy shift, any time they opt to try a bunt basehit eliminates any chance of them drawing a walk (same outcome), or hitting a leadoff double, triple, or HR (better outcomes). For hitters with exceptional abilities that actually warrant dramatic shifts, it's basically never a good play for them to give an AB away by trying to bunt their way on.

Pro athletes have done far worse to themselves and to others, and have received much less scrutiny than Braun has after getting caught using PEDs and then lying about it. As for the media's self-righteous indignation toward Braun, and how offended they are while trying to tell fans of a team how to react to their team's best player's first at bat, they can shove it. I'm hopeful Braun will be able to repeatedly stir them up by tearing the cover off the ball this season. I think the ovation for Braun's first regular season AB after this suspension had just as much to do with Brewer nation's collective exhaustion over having to deal with this crap since November 2011, and suddenly gaining a sense of relief by moving forward with just playing baseball. And hey, he sure as hell handled things much better than ARod...