Fear The Chorizo

I doubt a "poison pill" debate will even get brought up during the next round of CBA talks, in part because of this recent stiffening of JDA penalties. MLB & owners want to continue bathing in money, along with the players union, so they likely won't want to ruffle each other's feathers with something as significant as changing contract terms - even if it only applies to players being busted for PEDs. The players union views any avenue for owners to void or restructure guaranteed contracts as a slippery slope. The recent JDA penalty stiffening will be cited by both the owners (commissioner) and the players union as evidence of basball getting "cleaner", and that they're confident that hardly anyone's using PEDs anymore...at least until the next sketchy wellness clinic gets in legal or financial trouble and another dozen MLB names get leaked out to the media. I honestly don't know if there's precedent for a PED poison pill in a contract for baseball - I know there are things like motorcycle/recreational vehicle use restrictions imposed (hello Jeff Kent) in contracts, but I would think something like this would need to be ok'd by both players and owners before it would be implemented league-wide. Imagine the scrutiny (both fair and unfair) if something like that was in place prior to this season, and the Angels GM would come out and say "Hey, we offered Trout an enormous contract extension that buys a few years of FA, but he declined to sign because we had PED poison pill language put into the contract." On the other hand, assuming Trout's clean he shouldn't have any issues signing a deal including a poison pill, and then he's got a huge deterrent not to ever use PEDs built into his guaranteed money.

I got to wondering if this was a proactive move agreed to by the players union in effort to tamp down the growing push for poison pills getting put into guaranteed contracts. It's good press from the players standpoint to look like they're willing and open to "getting tougher" on PEDs, but in all honesty it's a lot of hot air. Had Tony Bosch not pissed a few of his colleagues off, none of the biogenesis players would've been suspended last season, including Braun and ARod. As others have mentioned in this thread, the current testing program doesn't even test for the designer stuff that some players are assuredly still taking. Listening to games yesterday, and they're still full of commentators mentioning how veteran players decided to train harder in the offseason and magically put on 30 lbs of muscle(Josh Hamilton, for one)...that doesn't happen without unnatural help. I'm hearing the same stuff about how the game's cleaning itself up because all these great prospects and young players have been used to being tested through the minor leagues - the same stuff we were hearing when Braun was breaking into the bigs, and he was the poster boy for the supposed post-steroid era 5-6 seasons ago. There always will be drug cheats, there are in every single sport because there's too much financial gain at stake and players always are looking for an edge. IMO the only way to drastically discourage (or at least signifcantly penalize) PED use in baseball with all the money flying around is to allow guaranteed contracts to be voided or significantly restructured if that player is busted for PEDs. For as holier than thou as many players project themselves to be in the media, there's still no chance in H-E-double hockey sticks that the players union would go along with that without going on strike.

I feel bad for the GM that has to deal with Cabrera's contract 5 seasons from now...knowing he's stuck with a severely diminished player nearing his late 30's who can only DH for FIVE more seasons and about 150 million bucks. Cabrera's had substance abuse issues in his not too recent past, coupled with him being on the wrong side of 30 and a negative defensive value that has him becoming a DH in the next few seasons. He could very well leave the game as one of the very best RH hitters of all time, if not the best. He could just as easily break down due to injury (started with a weird injury in mid-late 2013) and become a shell of the great player he currently is. Good for him to get that kind of payday, but it's just too long a deal for a player his age, regardless of how great he is.

got him! nothing like a routine 20-pitch inning from KRod for the save! 1-0, and gotta like the pitching today, albeit with a weird twist of KRod closing. Totally ok with bringing him in for a save situation here and there during the course of the season, especially if JH has been used frequently...opening day though? Unless something's bugging JH healthwise, I don't like the move if he's going to be getting the lions' share of save opportunities.

Someone pinch RR and tell him he's not on the Angels bench watching young KRod mow down hitters in the postseason...regardless of how this ends up, it's the wrong move

gotta love relievers who throw strikes when their team is up by 2 runs late

gotta love relievers who throw strikes when their team is up by 2 runs late

awesome...RR pinch hits with Weeks off the bench for the first time this season - at which time the manager just brings in a righty reliever to face Weeks and the other 19 RH hitters in the Brewer lineup following him. This team really does need to get some LH pop, and no, Francisco wasn't the answer

big inning here for Yo to work through with 3-4-5 coming up...

ARam puts the first runs on the board for 2014! Hopefully he hasn't already reached his quota for March/April hits this year....he's a notoriously slow starter

Gallardo's at 61 through 4IP, I think

Not to mention Trout's deal - even if teams are successful at identifying top tier talent through the draft, they will need to pay through the nose to keep them from nasty arbitration battles even earlier in their careers. There aren't going to be many more pre arby contracts like Lucroy's or even Braun's 1st extension...teams are terrified to even get to the first year of arbitration with premier talent because these bloated FA deals set the market beyond the reach of small market payrolls. So, the window of cost-control for young players keeps getting shorter, and it will make it even more difficult for teams on tight budgets to stay consistently competitive. In this offseason you've had the biggest contract ever given out to a position player, the biggest contract ever given out to a pitcher, and the biggest contract ever (by leaps and bounds) given out to a pre-arbitration player. If Cabrera, Kershaw, and Trout are worth what they've been guaranteed is debatable (of the three, only Trout's deal makes sense from an expected performance standpoint IMO), but these contracts have unquestionably sent shockwaves through small market teams that have limited capabilities to collect TV money...like the Brewers.

especially if these guys project to be light hitting middle infielders, why not get them used to a utility IF role by playing them at SS and 2B...as long as they are getting enough ABs I don't think it's going to interfere with their development. Not like they're holding back someone with Segura's offensive ability between these 3 prospects by doing this.

Arod's first deal with Texas was when he was 25 or 26. That 10 year deal would've ended right around the end of Arod's prime. He was also among the best defensive shortstops in the game at that point. That's not comparable to this Cabrera deal, which will end with Cabrera in his 40's, and who is already essentially a DH. Not saying small market teams can't be competitive here and there, but what these mega deals do is price the best players on small market teams right outta town during their prime years, and make even keeping the 2nd tier of quality talent around much past arbitration hard on the budget. Yes, a small market team can always rebuild through the draft, but losing great players in their prime is inevitable whether the team wants to keep them or not. That's something a large market team almost never has to worry about, which creates competitive imbalance. It's when the large market teams get too stupid with contracts that they feel the sting for a season or two, but they almost always have resources to quickly get back to contention (unless your new stadium was financed by a ponzi scheme, or your new owner can't get a corrupt city to renovate a fossil of a stadium with ivy growing on it to open up revenue streams). Since 2000, only one team outside the top 15 in opening day payroll won the World Series (2003 Marlins). It's true that literally any team can get hot and win a title if they are good enough to make the playoffs, but having only 1 true small market team winning in 14 seasons goes to show the overall competitive imbalance in today's MLB.

This is the kind of deal that just crushes small market teams' long-term competitiveness. It's a contract that every other FA deal will use as a benchmark to raise their value. Give a guy of Cabrera's talent that much per year if you want, fine...but to give it to him guaranteed for TEN YEARS at his age??? I've been telling myself that at some point the market for FA veterans on the wrong side of 30 is going to start correcting itself now that PEDs aren't as widely used to extend career primes by 5-6 years. Guess I'm wrong. If I'm a big market team or trying to act like one, I overpay like crazy for FA's in the 26-29 range, but give them 4-6 year deals. Pay them for their primes. Until these insane 8-10 year deals stop being handed out, the economics of baseball won't make sense. Moreso than any other sport, today's MLB players are paid for past production moreso than future production and career stage. That's caused by the arcane arbitration system. It worked ok before the gap between league minimum and maximum salaries has turned into a complete joke. For as great as Cabrera is, that's too long to sign a guy for who's going to be a DH in a few seasons...and he's got a history with substance abuse that should give alot of people pause.

Had they followed the model teams like the Rays, A's and Ryan's Twins have used successfully, I figured they had a chance to be a continually good team for the foreseeable future. If winning a world series championship is the ultimate goal, then the Rays, A's and Ryan's Twins model doesn't work, either. The Marlins model is actually more effective. If we get a good pitcher for Fielder it doesn't necessitate the trades for either Greinke or Marcum. We get different or better long term players back for the guys we traded. If's and but's...and hindsight's always 20/20. If I recall the market wasn't really that robust for trading Prince prior to 2011 - his 2010 season of OPS'ing 0.871 didn't help his market value. Had the Brewers tried to deal him after 2009, they probably could've gotten the best value. However, trading your best player in his prime with 2 full seasons of team control remaining is a tough pill for any organization to swallow. The Rays or A's don't do that. The Cardinals, everyone's model for how to run an organization today, let Pujols play out his contract and walk. The could've traded him for twice the value Fielder could've gotten. The glaring discrepancy with how the Brewers have been doing business in recent years and the perceived 'Rays/A's model' is that the Brewers haven't been able to keep the talent pipeline from the farm system flowing. Poor drafts and likely poor scouting/player development are the problem, not a lack of trading big league players. Segura is here because the Brewers traded Greinke. Coulter and Haniger were drafted from picks given to the Brewers for losing Fielder to free agency. Had there been better prospects in the pipeline prior to Fielder leaving, we wouldn't be having this discussion about the problems at 1B.

At least with Francisco you have position flexibility (even if he isn't a good defender, he can play 3B) I'd argue Francisco can't play either 1B or 3B - so the Brewers picked up positional flexibility by releasing him and going with a platoon of Reynolds and Overbay. Just because Francisco throws right handed and owns a glove doesn't mean he can play 3B. Francisco is a DH at best and unfortunately for his career as a Brewer, the Brewers play in the NL.

I really hope spring training stats are viewed by everyone on this board the same way NFL and NBA preseason stats are...they're pointless. Keep your guys healthy. Francisco can't play defense - he's an ideal fit for a team in need of a DH with pop, that doesn't need him to carry a lineup. That's not the Brewers. Losing Francisco and going with some combination of Overbay/Reynolds isn't a move that leads to a disastrous season. 1B is still a trouble spot offensively for the Brewers, at least there are players there who can play the position defensively compared to last year. Having one of those bats hitting 7th in this lineup isn't going to kill you, either. It's an obvious position in need of a long term upgrade, but it's also one of the easier positions to plug veteran MLB players for the short-term and hope you catch lightning in a bottle. Not the best spot to be in, but if the Brewers are competitive and need an offensive boost, Melvin would likely be able to find an upgrade via trade by the deadline to fill that role. Much less costly than acquiring impact pitching via trade. Losing two of your projected starting pitchers to Tommy John surgery before the season starts, having your projected closer get hit in the head with a 120-mph comebacker, losing your starting SS to stress fractures in both legs and having one of your best pitchers refuse a contract extension - those are the things in spring training that can lead to disastrous seasons. Thankfully, the Brewers have managed to stay relatively healthy this spring (knock on wood), and aren't heading into this season like last year, when their primary and backup 1B option were already lost for the season and a combination of Yuni B and Alex Gonzalez were playing there.

When this current team is no longer viewed as even a potential contender, I can see a GM/succession switch happen pretty fast with Melvin likely opting to bow out rather than try to rebuild again. To me, this year's Brewers team is similar in many regards to the White Sox teams a few years ago. They were several years away from their World Series title with quite a few key contributors still on the team. They had alot of veterans on the roster, many on contracts paying them market value at moderate length, and if everything broke just right for them they'd find themselves back in the playoffs. Their farm system had been gutted by Kenny Williams making bunches of trades to fill big league holes and missing often in the draft. Their payroll was stretched pretty thin, and they had little flexibility in terms of trading valuable MLB assets because their owner was paranoid of another "white flag" deal that would drastically lower attendance & fan interest. They hovered about 5 games over/under 0.500 for a few years, then last year a few key injuries happened, veterans really declined, and they sucked to the point where they almost lost 100 games last year. But, they had a very good offseason over the winter that was set up by some good trades, salary dumps, and acquisitions made by their new GM after Kenny handed over the reins knowing full well it wasn't going to be pretty a few yrs ago. Their farm system is on the upswing, veteran trades have brought in young talent, and they signed some talent that could significantly outperform salary. For the Brewers, instead of a groomed successor I think when Melvin's time is over as Brewers' GM they need to clean house and bring fresh faces in throughout the organization. The GM/baseball ops president needs to have full control of who works for him at all levels.

If the Braves make the postseason this year with Santana's help, and they get Medlen back healthy next year - them losing a pick will be worth it, whether or not they'd get a comp pick back for potentially losing Santana next season. For a team like Atlanta that has a long track record of developing pitching, this is a necessary move to contend at the MLB level, and their farm system can easily handle losing a pick. For Milwaukee, this would be the equivalent of losing Peralta right now due to injury. IMO the Brewers couldn't make a knee-jerk signing like this to fill a void at the MLB level, because their farm system is desperate for talent that a first round draft pick can provide right now. It would be like taking the rudder off a rusty ship and using it as a patch to weld onto a leaky seam. It temporarily keeps the ship from sinking, but as an organization you're left listing about with less ability to change course for the long run.

The writing was on the wall for Morris before spring training ever started, let's not kid ourselves...the organization didn't view him as a viable 1B option to start the season in Milwaukee, which is why they rounded up just about anyone with a 1st baseman's mitt and invited them to spring training. Spring training isn't viewed as competition for roster spots anymore for the most part - it's about keeping your anticipated big league roster healthy while giving them some work to get into baseball playing shape. MLB spring training has turned into NFL preseason recently. As for Taylor Green, aside from being pretty good at AA one season years ago, what has he done to deserve any kind of longterm roster spot with the Brewers? Certainly nothing as a major leaguer...sometimes the "small sample size" at certain levels has more to do with not exposing a player to competition they're clearly not capable of performing well against. I was actually surprised he was in Brewers' camp this spring, as I figured the Brewers had moved on. Aside from being one of the possible trade chips for C.C. that the Brewers held onto, there isn't anything since then that would give any organization a reason to want to slot him into longterm plans. He's undersized for the infield positions he's most capable of playing defensively (1B and 3B), his offense will never allow him to play either of those positions at the ML level regularly, and he's always hurt. Nelson getting bumped to AAA probably has more to do with getting him his work as a starter, and Nashville was where he was likely ticketed to start the season once Garza was signed. I'm fine with that.

I think you can replace PED use with 'playing to get paid' in the case of Matt Kemp - he signed the richest contract in Dodger history (at the time) after his 2011 campaign. He had a monster 2011 because he was healthy and extremely motivated to cash in. his 2012 injury definitely threw a wrench into him being a perennial MVP candidate, but keep in mind human nature probably would lead almost all of us to not be as focused on rehab/getting back on the field when you have 160 million guaranteed reasons waiting for you no matter how great you are anymore. ...or he could've been on PEDs during 2011, just like Braun, then saw what happened to Braun and got off the stuff after he got paid...which led to him regaining his status as a talented but often-injured player after the great start he had in 2012.

The combination of teams wanting to pay big dollars to players during their prime (rather than having them cheap through arbitration and then overpaying for older free agents), and the crackdown on PED's that most likely contributed to extending primes well into player's 30s is going lead to what you're thinking, IMO. I can see arbitration rules changing to reduce MLB service time prior to free agency - that would likely eliminate the free agent year buyouts of these younger players and more big time contract extensions that actually happen during their prime years. Then you'd have a 2nd wave of early 30's free agents who would either rely on shorter term deals at high costs, or longer deals at a bargain price knowing they're guranteed contracts. You're already seeing free agents with draft pick compensation tied to them that end up signing much later and for much less than what they'd have gotten 4-5 seasons ago.

.310avg, .385obp, 35HR, 120RBI, 100+ runs scored...counting stats assuming he's healthy enough to play in 150 games this season. The thumb and consistent oblique issues with Brauny prior to the PED stuff give me concern about his health. When healthy I think he's going to rake all season long, which will prompt ESPN to push for Remetee undershirts to be placed on the banned substances list. His 2012 season was basically one big F.U. to everyone riding him after that overturned suspension, and he's had a relatively quiet 9 months by his standards to recharge the batteries and get ready to return to playing baseball. From the pessimistic side, I can see some sort of freak injury like a broken bone in his hand from a HBP keeping him out significant time, and it being unfairly categorized as an injury from being off the juice...but I'm an optimist, so forget that thought.

The worst way to rebuild a farm system is to draft based on current MLB needs - just draft the highest player left on your board each time your organization gets to pick. Having positions for prospects blocked at the MLB level is a good thing - that's when teams can start making trades from a position of strength. People scratched their heads when the Brewers picked LaPorta with Fielder already manning 1B - that draft pick landed them C.C. and the team's first playoff berth in forever, and Melvin made the right decision to deal LaPorta at his peak value. If the people making the board are the problem, then you're in trouble...something many feel is the case right now with the Brewers' draft/scouting departments.