Fear The Chorizo

Sheets had the misfortune of having his best years before the influx of homegrown Brewers became everyday big-leaguers. I'd argue that he was overused during the early part of his career, particularly 2003 and 2004 when he was the Brewers equivalent of what King Felix is in Seattle - he put up awesome numbers those years for terrible teams, who knows if limiting his workload during those down years could have lengthened his career. I'll continue to have many fond memories of him, from his dominant 2004 to the summer of 2008 when he and CC dominated the NL for a few months before he broke down.

For argument's sake, let's say Braun goes on a tear and finishes the season with 200 hits (very unlikely, but possible). He'd have to go a minimum of 16-24 in order to do so...that would put his batting average right at 0.333. Since Melky has taken himself out of the running for the batting title, Braun would wind up right near the top of the batting average race. A red-hot finish to the season gives him an opportunity to win the triple crown in the NL. Would be interesting to see a guy win the triple crown and not win MVP (actually a better chance of happening in the AL, where Cabrera could win the crown and lose to Trout in MVP voting)

I give Braun a ton of credit for putting up one big "F U" type of season after all the stuff he's gone through with the media, fans, etc over the past year. Tons of writers already had their articles written about how Braun's statistical decline proves he was on something during his 2011 MVP season. Now that he's put up better numbers than last year in spite of the intense scrutiny (and without Fielder hitting behind him), the silence of the writers on him has been deafening even though he's solidified his status among the top 5 everyday players in all of baseball. kudos, Mr. Braun.

For as many injuries and bullpen ineptitude this team suffered, the fact that they didn't quit and have given themselves a shot after trading their best pitcher reflects very well on the approach Roenicke takes with the players. I have no problem venting about certain in-game and lineup decisions that he makes, but I'd argue those may not be as impactful on game outcomes as how he handles the team off the field. A big part of that is having players with the right mentality, but I think Roenicke deserves alot of credit for keeping the team playing hard. No way to quantify it, for sure, but ask Boston fans what Bobby V did to an already shaky clubhouse about how much a manager can screw up a team off the field.

The reason Peralta hasn't been in the majors is his lack of command - Ennder's right, when teams get some more tape on him and realize that he's just as likely to walk you as strike you out if you don't swing, he's going to hve trouble getting deep into games unless he improves his command. I'd love to have him as a #4 or #5 option in the rotation for next season - I wouldn't want to count on him being the #2, but the upside is definitely there if they have enough rotation depth in front of him. I don't see the comparisons with Sheets due to the command issues - I see him more like a Zambrano with his stuff and potential, but lots of room for improvement. Hopefully he can become more consistent and turn into the caliber of pitcher that Zambrano was before his craziness took over his career.

Sad that the same media voters who would have voted for Barry Bonds and his exploding helmet size for a couple MVP's and Clemens for Cy Youngs late in their careers now will refuse to vote for a guy who hasn't ever been suspended for PED use because of a media leak and claim to be protecting the "integrity of the game". Numbers alone, Braun's the MVP - the only real competition is McCutcheon and it isn't close unless the Pirates would make the playoffs. Posey's had a great season, but if I remember correctly he's missed a good chunk of time earlier this year.

16 games left, 2 games back in the loss column for a wildcard spot. No way anyone could say that was possible for this Brewers team a month ago - that right there is reason for optimism! It would be great to be the team that sends the Pirates back down below 0.500 again, too!

No, the situation of the "contact play" that drives me crazy is the lone baserunner, R3 less than two outs. Especially when there are no outs at the time. I'd love to see some stats on "runs scored in an inning after a R3 is thrown out at the plate with less than two outs" vs the mlb average of expecting a sac fly, passed ball, infield single, base hit, wild pitch, etc (basically anything that would score the runner had he stayed put and the contact play not been on). Find me an example of the contact play definitely being put on with one runner on at 3rd and no outs. I would think that happens 0% of the time, even with managers who like to put it on. With one out, I'm fine with it if the on deck hitter is a pitcher or crappy hitter.

The way the teams in front of the Brewers are playing, I'd almost rather have them not play each other - that way at least none of them are guaranteed of winning.

If there's anything we can take from this season, it's that no lead is safe - hopefully they can close 'em out with no drama and keep this thing rolling.

the calculated probabilities shouldn't be looked at as predictive - they do a good job of providing a summary of how often teams made the playoffs based on snapshots of the season compared to historical outcomes, but frankly that's about it. They attempt to be predictive based on remaining schedule and some other factors, but september roster expansions and the likelihood of contending teams resting players or organizing their playoff rotations after clinching throws wrenches into things, too. highly unlikely that the Brewers make the playoffs, let alone do anything in them if they do get in. The same was said of the 2010 Cards and Rays at this time last year, too. I say let's enjoy the ride of an unexpected period of playoff fever and scoreboard watching, however long it lasts.

Wondering what Taylor Green is thinking right now. If he wants to be a MLB Brewer I hope he's thinking of ways to improve as a pinch hitter/part time player. He didn't get much of a look in the majors at all this year, but players of his talent level (not minor league production, talent level) need to hit the ground running in the majors to have a big league career.

The one caveat being if the Reds plan to shut him down for a while in September to keep tabs on his IP workload, since he only threw 156 IP last season & 185.2 in '10. Ask Mark Prior how well Dusty Baker monitors IP workloads during playoff runs. Didn't realize Cueto's IP were so low the last two seasons - if he's around 220IP plus postseason innings, not going to be a good 2013 for him. To piggyback on the Braun for MVP discussion - highly unlikely with only 1 month of season left, but how ironic would it be for Braun to finish the season leading the NL in HR and RBI, and finish 2nd in BA to a suspended Cabrera (I believe he would be batting champion if nobody exceeds 0.350, correct?). The headline could be "Braun denied triple crown by drug cheat".

The best interest of the Brewers would be to offer him arby this offseason and go into 2013 with him being the everyday center fielder with a player like Schafer as the reserve CF - not a strict righty/lefty platoon, but giving Gomez around 75% of the starts (always against a lefty starter and some days against righties). If Gomez falls on his face offensively, you'd go back to a strict platoon. If Schafer falls on his face you have the option of using Aoki in center and putting one of several options into RF (Hart, Davis, Gamel?). Gomez hasn't shown that he's worth a long term commitment by the Brewers, but he's shown enough this season to play almost everyday to see what happens. Even if he's struggling offensively in 2013 he'd have trade value at the deadline if the Brewers want to move him to a team looking for a bench upgrade (OF defense, pinch runner for a contender). If he ends up pricing himself out of Milwaukee, so be it. I just don't think it's worth the risk to give him bigtime money in a longterm deal prior to him reaching free agency.

Gomez in the #7 or #8 spot is a great spot for him in a NL lineup - his biggest liability (OBP) doesn't kill the top of a lineup when he isn't going good. Put Weeks or even LuCroy up in the #2 spot, lead off with Aoki or Weeks, and have a very solid lineup going into 2013: Weeks/Aoki LuCroy/Weeks Braun Ramirez Hart/Gamel(If Hart's traded) Aoki/Lucroy Segura Gomez (Schafer as backup OF) Pitcher

I don't see Ramirez being traded over this offseason - if the Brewers aren't contending in 2013, I'd expect him to be dealt at the trade deadline with the Brewers eating some of his salary in order to get a quality prospect in return. If he's hitting, there will be a demand for him. I get that age projections don't set up well for ARam's 3rd year, but the going rate for his current level of production is practically 20 Mil per season whether justified or not. In reality the Brewers have him at a discount for 2012-2013. I also think there's too much overvaluing of non-blue chip Brewer prospects, especially when trying to compare minor league production to perceived major league roster garbage (Izturis, Ransom, etc.). It's a bit out of hand to be talking about having the reigning NL MVP make a position switch so Khris Davis has a position to play. Green, Schafer, Davis, Gindl, etc. are not blue chip prospects - They all could become major league regulars, but the odds are much better for 75% of these type of players becoming AAAA-types if they can't fill specific roster spots effectively (i.e., utility backup IF, 4th OF/pH). Those are tough roles for younger players w/out MLB experience to fill when they're used to playing everyday in the minors. I hope Green gets a decent shot to make the MLB team out of spring training next year because he could be very valuable as a utility IF/pH option if he can get comfortable in that role. As for OF options, alot depends on what's going to happen with the Hart/Gamel situation at 1st. If one of those players ends up in the OF mix for 2013, there's really only room on the roster for one of Schafer/Davis/Gindl, and regular playing time would probably be an issue.

As my man Crash Davis so eloquently put it, "Million Dollar arm with a 10-cent head..." Jeffress was too busy dodging suspensions through most of his minor league career to actually develop into a pitcher instead of a guy who threw really hard. Of the 4 players sent to KC in the deal for Greinke, the only one I regret losing is Jake O.

Taylor Green is an in-house option. Or maybe someone you get in trade for Ramirez or Hart would be an option. Taylor Green is an in-house option if the Brewers are fine with punting for 2013. He could perform just fine in an everyday role, but he hasn't had enough of a big league opportunity to determine whether he's an everyday regular, especially at a corner IF position. I don't think he's a longterm solution there (his best role would be a super-utility IF, not an everyday regular). I'm fine with giving him an everyday shot at 3rd if a trade of Ramirez or Hart nets a high ceiling 3B that could be ready to step in starting 2014.

2. An 83% success rate does not make it a worthwhile strategy. Everyone but RR seems understand that it has to be above 90% on average. SMALL SAMPLE ALERT!!! Citing 90% on average for something that's been attempted a dozen times seems a bit contradictory to me, even if I'm not a statistical disciple. Maybe RR is just upping the # of squeeze plays - 8 in a row would give them 18-20, or 90%...winner!

If put in the right spot in the lineup - the bottom - Gomez is a valuable everyday player. He brings elite OF defense with speed on the basepaths, and his OBP deficiency would be somewhat masked by hitting toward the bottom of the order. The ideal scenario is that Weeks turns it around next season to hit in the #2 hole, with Aoki leading off. Gomez slides into the #7 or #8 spot in the lineup. Aoki Weeks Braun Ramirez Hart/Gamel Lucroy SS Gomez P The other option would be to trade him or continue a CF platoon with Gomez and Aoki, then plan to move Hart or Gamel to the OF next season.

My guess is that Kottaras getting DFA'd and Bianchi getting sent back to AAA (apparently ruining his career for whatever reason), isn't going to be the last roster move Melvin makes with this team before mid-August. Let the dust settle after the trade deadline, see what's on the Brewers' 40-man roster, then gripe and complain about who should be playing where. This reminds me of the Thornburg callup thread where people were up in arms about how in the world he'd ever reach the ideal # of innings pitched from the bullpen - then he started a game a few days later and will likely be the starter for Greinke's rotation spot after he's dealt. Bianchi would be a good trade sweetener for a team that wants Greinke but is reluctant to part with a quality SS prospect in a package deal. My thinking of this trip to AAA is if he is a possible trade chip, the Brewers would rather keep Izturis/Ransom on the roster to have as 2012 season-filler rather than starting the arby clock on a quality SS prospect they may acquire via trade. If he's not part of a trade, by all means let him play everyday in Milwaukee after DFA'ing Izturis right after the deadline.

I have no problem with rewarding Maldanado the opportunity to stay in the big leagues for the rest of this season - also, it's no guarantee that LuCroy is going to start 80% of the games right off the DL and a short rehab assignment. It's likely to be more of a 60-40% split with either catcher being a pH option each game. That's enough AB's and playing time when stretched over 2 months, compared to 1 month of everyday playing time in the minors for the rest of the season in AAA. Also, how are the other catchers in AA and AAA going to be adjusted if Maldanado's back there taking away their AB's? Aren't they prospects needing development, too? As for Bianchi playing SS in Milwaukee everyday vs Izturis/Ransom, who cares? None of them should be in the Brewers' longterm plans if they want to contend next season. With the amount of trades that may be happening over the next week, let that settle out first and make any DFAs or waiver trades in August.

I have no problem mentioning Burgos, Sanchez, Kintzler for next year's staff at all - didn't want to post a novel, though. I guess my point is that the bullpen needs to be gutted, and it can be done without having to overpay veteran arms if the Brewers want to use their farm system. The last two months of this year should serve as a good tryout for many of these guys to set up competition for the 2013 opening day roster.

From a pitching staff perspective for next season, the rest of this year will be important. Dealing Greinke and hopefully Wolf will open up rotation spots for some of the young Brewer arms to gain MLB experience. If they want to limit prospect arby clock start times, they still have Livan to shift into the rotation. I think you see if Marcum can come back healthy at some point this season - if so I think it's worth offering a 1-2 year deal to him if he's open to it. Then you'd have Gallardo, Fiers, Marcum, and probably Estrada as four solid rotation options - filling in the final spot with a prospect or quality FA signing is more than doable. It's the bullpen that is in complete disarray right now, but I think the Brewers still have enough pieces to put one together for 2013 without killing their payroll. Tons of ways to do it, but one of the cheaper ways could be: Axford Rogers Henderson Stetter FA/trade pickup Prospect Narveson I think Parra is done as a Brewer, even with his arm talent.

Not sure if it's been posted elsewhere, but Uecker had Mark A. in the booth, and he had some interesting comments: - Mentioned that the Brewers looked into trading for H. Ramirez before signing ARam. He was surprised at how much of the contract the Dodgers took on in that deal. - Mentioned that Greinke's situation is trending opposite of how Hamels' worked out. With Z.G. so close to FA, likely that he wants to pursue it (duh). - disheartening to witness the bullpen implode last night. - touched again on how much Greinke does like Milwaukee, and that if Melvin trades him this year it wouldn't discourage him signing with the Brewers for 2013.