Fear The Chorizo

"People so willing to give up LaPorta for CC need to realize there are 25-35 home runs and a decent average from him coming next season as a replacement for Prince, when Prince is dealt for pitching help/prospects. Without LaPorta, you are looking at someone without at least average productivity at first next season. " People so willing to trade Fielder for pitching and prospects need to realize that teams aren't going to ship top tier talent to the Brewers for a ballooning DH that appears deadset on becoming a free agent and has been saying the wrong things for the past few months. I think if the Brewers hold onto Fielder until he becomes a free agent, he will have played the most productive years of his career for the Brewers, and I'll wish him well in free agency and accept draft picks 3 seasons from now. The best value the Brewers can get from Fielder is to keep him on their team and let him be the lefty bat in the middle of their lineup for as long as they control his rights. And while I'm as high on LaPorta's ability as anyone else, assuming he's an automatic 30 HR guy at the major league level the moment he starts playing in Milwaukee could be overly optimistic.

I agree with your last post, endaround, high end draft choices aren't too cheap, and if injuries/ineffectiveness causes the picks to be flameouts, they can really hurt teams on a tighter budget. Comp picks are good things to have, but they also aren't nearly as valuable as top tier prospects who have already proven that they are more than capable of being good MLB players when their time arrives. Factor in many scouts' takes that the 09 draft is looking pretty weak overall, and those comp picks are worth even less compared to a stud AA prospect.

I am saying exactly that. The Brewers will have to lead in at least the Wild Card by July 31st to make a run and NOT deal Sheets. Basically, we need to get hot once more and leap over the Cards. So, if the Brewers are a game back of the Cardinals for the Wild Card lead on July 31, there's no way they can't overcome that deficit in the 55 or so games remaining?

"Taking a completely opposite approach, what about trading both Fielder and Sheets at the deadline? I know it would be giving up on this year, but I'd guess we could get 3 potential top of the rotation starters out of it, plus maybe some infield prospects to possibly replace Hardy and Weeks down the line. " Huge difference between potential top of the rotation starters and a known top of the rotation starter - the Brewers would be foolish for expecting a haul of young arms for a rental of Sheets, or even for 3 years of Fielder. There are very few (if any) organizations who posess that kind of talent that are willing to trade it away for older, much more expensive players. If Milwaukee trades either of these guys before they lose control of them, they're not going to get equal value. The only way I can see trading Fielder is if they get blown away by an offer in an offseason, or during his free agent year if they're not contending. I think Fielder's trade value is nowhere near as high as some people here think - Texeira's a free agent this offseason, and the big market teams would much rather pay top dollar for him than trade the farm away for a guy who basically should be a DH now, and who will plan on becoming a free agent in a few more seasons.

If C.C. gets traded, he'll go to free agency regardless of where he's traded to - I'm sure he'll get tons of pressure from the player's union (As will Sheets) to become a free agent and make sure the price tag for pitching stays sky-high. If Cleveland is serious about making one last effort to resign him and it doesn't happen, then I would think his value isn't as over-the-top as what the Mariners gave up for Bedard, a pitcher who at the time of the trade was under Mariner control for 2 full seasons. GMs are going to balk at giving up that much, and unless the Red Sox and Yankees start dangling some of their young arms out there for him, I don't see how a bidding war can break out for Sabathia that would lead to a monumental prospect haul for the Indians. The Brewers have enough depth in their farm system to put together an attractive package of players and not empty their cupboard - the important thing is for their scouting department to have a firm grasp on what prospects are at maximum value right now that will have the poorest chance of excelling at the major league level, and what prospects need to be viewed as untouchable. IMO, almost any trade package consisting of 3 prospects in order to acquire Sabathia for a 2.5 month rental + Type A draft picks is fine by me, as long as the package doesn't include both LaPorta and Gamel. It's been 26 years, and I think this is the season where they should take a really legitimate shot at getting over the hump, as long as it doesn't completely decimate the farm system. Position-playerwise, the Brewers can afford to deal a few prospects, because that is where the strength of their homegrown talent lies organization-wide. I think there are too many unknowns with how the roster is going to look in 2009 to assume they'll automatically be contenders next season - if the Brewers don't fall on their face over the next 10 games, I think they have to at least give acquiring C.C. a legit shot.

I just love Yost's reasoning of why Gagne will suddenly be an effective non-closing reliever, when Brewers brass tried to explain away his 8th inning struggles in Boston as 'being used in non-save situations'. Apparently, now it's cool to put Gagne in a setup role because 'he's had that experience, and he can adjust'. Methinks Mr. Yost and Mr. Melvin have been spending too much time on the rhetorical "sit n' spin" when it comes to mining for reasons to expect Gagne to succeed and display public confidence in him. I hope he's effective, but if he's not, I really hope the leesh is extremely short and Melvin is willing to chalk the Gagne signing up as a bad one.

two weeks ago the Brewers were 8.5 games behind the cubs and 5 games behind the Cardinals. Those leads have been pared to 4.5 and 2 games, with a big Brewer homestand and a Cubs-Cardinals series in the near future. The Cub messageboard continues to trend eerily similar to this messageboard last season - first 60 games - bliss nearing euphoria, threads on how many games the team will win the division by, all-star game home field significance, scouting possible W.S. matchups in the A.L. Nobody caring that there are still 100 games left to be played. Adjusting expected win total based on hot start. next 25 games - nervous optimism, threads on how chasing teams are due to cool off, team will rebound nicely once players get healthy, rotation just going through a rough spell and will bounce back to pitching well instead of factoring in career norms. Trying to view the outlook as the glass 1/2 full, thanking the baseball gods for the big early cushion and giving a daily rundown mentioning their league-best record and # of game lead on both the division and wildcard. next 25 games - ???

Can LaPorta or Gamel become a solid #1A caliber starter and help to anchor a possible playoff rotation for a team that gets ridiculed for celebrating a World Series loss 26 years ago, the last time they were even in the playoffs? I understand the value of prospects to small/mid market teams, but the Brewers' minor league cupboard isn't exactly bare anymore, and the potential to have compensatory picks up the wazoo again next year if both Sheets and Sabathia leave via free agency can help to replace whatever player(s) are currently dominating AA that much faster. There comes a point when a small market team has to roll the dice in order to get over the hump. If Gallardo were still in the rotation I'd probably be even more insistent on making a splash via trade. Odds are Sheets is walking after this season, so why not try to maximize the success the team has in his last season pitching here by bringing in another stud pitcher?

well, when every fly ball Edmunds hits toward left field gets caught in the summer Wrigley jet stream and ends up in the stands, I would imaging the BABIP gets a significant bump. 365 foot flyballs to left center end up 5-6 rows into the bleachers in that stadium.

still nobody ready in the bullpen, Ned? Oh, okay, good thing you got someone starting to get ready after Soup's given up two runs already this inning and there's still only one out. At least it's not 90 degrees out there and the pitcher probably isn't fatigued...oh wait, it is!

so, after two great starting pitching performances, and an offday tomorrow, WHY isn't there anyone ready to go in the Milwaukee pen?

let's factor in key arby raises. Fielder, from around 600k to 7-10 million, most likely Hart, from around 500k to 5-8 million, most likely Weeks, from 1.2-1.3 million to 3ish million, most likely Hardy, probably increase by a million simply because he'd be another year closer to free agency. that's anywhere from 16-25 million more to pay for players already under Brewer control. Assume that everyone with a one-year deal gets dumped, and the Brewers have all that other cash to work with - I would think getting Torres to come back would cost them, especially if he continues to be an effective closer - subtract at least 5 million for him. Assuming the Brewers actually resign Sheets, that would still leave a bunch of roster spots/decisions to fill with inexperienced prospects or players on the cheap. Suppan gets a significant pay increase next season, so do Hall and Braun. Financially, the Brewers could afford to resign Sheets if they trust some of their pitching prospects to be major league relievers next season, but only to a certain point. With how the Yankees' young pitchers have largely struggled this season, if they target Sheets there's no telling how high they'd go to get a deal done if Sheets continues to have a great season, especially with Giambi's and Pavano's contracts coming off the books, too. The Brewers may be able to match other teams on a dollars/year basis, but I think it'd be foolish for them to start offering 5+ year deals to Sheets, which is what the true large market teams are able to do with pitchers if they get into a bidding war, because they can more easily afford the injury/cost risk. I think the only way the Brewers can afford to resign Sheets and justify the expense is if they trade for Sabathia, let him walk and recoup the draft picks to help with rebuilding the farm system, and reap the financial reward of reaching the postseason with a 1-2 of Sheets and C.C. There is definitely plenty of time for things to shake out before Melvin and Co. have to make a decision.

The Brewers could afford to resign Sheets if they didn't have to pay so much to redo their bullpen every season and fill it with veteran free agents. If their farm system could start developing relievers that can contribute at a fraction of the cost, then the extra money can be pooled to sign quality starting pitching or keep their arbitration eligible players happy. Yes, they're 15th in payroll right now, but they're nowhere near capable of spending with the 5-6 big boys in MLB (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers). The Brewers don't have bottemless pockets like those teams. Revenue sharing has leveled the playing field a bit, but not to the point where mid-market teams can forget about the price tags on the best free agents in the game. The bad way to look at Milwaukee's payroll is that while they're 15th, their current roster has alot of players about to make significantly more through arbitration (Fielder, Hart, Weeks, among others), while a big portion of their payroll is tied to players who haven't been key contributors this season, to say the least (Gagne, Turnbow, Capuano, Hall, among others.) There are currently very few spots on this roster that carry alot of cost certainty for next season. Alot is made of all the one year contracts expiring that would free up money to resign Sheets and give other players extensions - is there really enough depth in the Brewers' minor leagues to call up 5-6 players/pitchers to replace all of the one year deals at a minimum cost, and still expect to win consistently?

A small market team cannot pay a quality starting pitcher 18+ million dollars a year for multiple years. Starting pitching is vital to winning, but teams with modest payrolls have to be able to develop their own pitching instead of having to overpay for it. The Twins understood this, which is why Santana is now a Met - a Met with a 150 million dollar contract who's 7-6 and already has some scouts saying that his stuff's nowhere close to as good as it was a few seasons ago...remember all the booyah network's baseball "experts" who said that winning 30 games was a possibility for Santana in the NL? The initial contract extension Sheets signed four years ago bought Milwaukee 4 more seasons of a pitcher that they normally wouldn't have been able to hold onto. It's unfortunate that he had so many injuries that limited his production during a majority of this contract, but to throw a new contract at him that dwarfs his old one is a move that cripples organizations. I think the only way Milwaukee can justify giving him a bigtime contract is if they fully intend to trade him well before it expires if their team needs rebuilding a few seasons from now. I have no problem with Sheets wanting to cash in after this season - anyone in his situation would want to do the exact same thing. If he ends up with another team, I'll wish him well and be thankful for the fact that I as a Brewer fan watched him pitch on the Brewers for 8 seasons. Don't get me wrong though, in a perfect world I'd want the Brewers to find a way to get Sheets resigned for a few more seasons, if he'd be willing to take fewer years at more $$ per season. That would give him the opportunity to sign another big free agent deal if he stays healthy.

Here's what could make or break the season for the Brewers - just how effective are Riske and Gagne going to be once they return from the DL? Riske got off to a poor start, but if these guys can put it together to solidify the bullpen and eliminate some of the many question marks back there, this team could get on a really good roll...having a solid bullpen already in place would make it easier to prioritize acquiring a starting pitcher to bolster their rotation as well. If the bullpen continues to be a concern, the Brewers are going to end up exactly where they finished last season - on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

It's amazing - if I was able to look into the future back in March and saw today's lineup for a regular season game, I would probably burn all of my Brewers gear. With the injuries and struggles of certain players who were expected to contribute significantly, I'm suddenly indifferent to this lineup. Counsell needs to not be hitting leadoff, though. I'd probably be happier with Kendal leading off and bumping Counsell/Hall down to the 8 spot.

The start of the Brewers' slide last season went hand in hand with Sheets going down for significant time - I don't remember the Cubs or Cub fans hearkening back to that as one of the reasons why they overtook the Brewers, and frankly I'm tired of always hearing about how durable Zambrano has been compared to Sheets (justifiably so when factoring in all of Sheets' non-arm injuries)... Because of that, and because of what little respect I have for Zambrano-king of all mound antics, that I hope his shoulder looks like hamburger.

Playoff Odds in June are going to swing wildly no matter what, since there are still tons of games to be played and projected out over the season. For that reason, I don't put a lot of stake into them. What were the Rockies', Cubs', Yankees' and Phillies' odds at this point last year? Regarding the Cubs' division lead, circumstances are a bit different than 2007, but the gap between the Cubs and Brewers is essentially the same now as it was last year. For the Brewers to have a shot at catching the Cubs, they have to shave a game or two off the 7.5 game lead between now and when they play each other in late July - if that happens, winning a 4 game series 3-1 against the Cubs at home puts them right back into the mix for the division. What I like even more is that the Cubs and Cardinals still play each other alot this season, and if either the Cubs demolish the Cardinals or they play .500 against each other, the Brewers' playoff chances will really be helped. The likelihood of catching the Cubs isn't nearly as possible as catching up to and passing a severely shorthanded Cardinal club that's bound to scuffle without so many key players, so until the Cardinals are in the rear view mirror, I'm trying not to follow what happens to the Cubs so intently. You gotta finish at least 2nd in your division to be the wild card, so that should be the focus right now.

Quality start is a very 'meh' stat - isn't it 6 IP, and giving up 3 or fewer runs? That's a 4.5 ERA and consistently needing the pen to get 9 more outs. That's more average than anything. I would really like to see the 'quality start' term get pushed to describing only starts 7 innings or more with 3 or fewer earned runs given up. Then it would actually mean what it implies.

I think Pie is just the next in a long line of Cub prospects that has all the tools in the world to be a good MLB player, but didn't pan out due to being rushed through their system and receiving poor developmental instruction.

That 6.5% chance at winning the division can be drastically altered by trades, injuries, or slumps, plus some scheduling quirks. I look at it the same way as I look at that stupid win probability chart that gets spit out during the course of a game thread...Brewers had a 75% chance of winning the game until the opponent hit a 3-run homer in the 8th to put them down 2, then it "trended" down to 10% - gee, that's shocking. No kidding there's currently next to no chance to overtake a team who never seems to lose. I'm the first to admit that if the Cubs continue to win every single home game they have left on their schedule, and continue to play around a .500 clip on the road, they'll be impossible to catch. But, if the Brewers continue to keep pace with the Cubs, something they've been able to do over the past 3+ weeks of the season when the Cubs have actually played their best baseball, they are undoubtedly the wild card team. I'm still holding out hope that as the Cubs move into the unkind part of their schedule that the Brewers can chip a game or two off the Cubs' lead and set things up for an interesting August/September. Something else to keep in mind that the two teams Milwaukee is chasing (Cubs & Cards) play each other a TON the rest of the season, and the Brewers play them both alot as well. If Milwaukee can end up with even slight winning records against both teams, there's no doubt that really increases their chances at overtaking one or both of them.

One of the reasons young talent is important is because it can be traded to get established talent to push teams over the hump. This is a great point, and it's something that the Brewers will need to start doing before their organization starts getting rule 5'd to death. Whether it be young MLB players or hot prospects that are blocked by franchise cornerstones, the Brewers need to identify early on how they can get maximum value out of all parts of their organization. Stockpiling prospects that are blocked from playing in the majors is great if you want to win minor league titles, but it really doesn't benefit the major league team. The Brewers have been able to advance their best prospects to the big league level pretty well, but the next wave of players is coming, and tough decisions need to be made in order to field the best MLB team. There have been next to no examples of teams relying heavily on young talent winning championships, and in today's baseball trade market, it's easier to get a quality player in return by trading a young prospect than a proven MLB player. To this point, the Brewers' organization had been devoid enough in talent to push their best prospects and advance them at a good clip directly to the big league club. They've done a good job of building depth in their organization, and the best way for a small market team to capitalize on that depth is to trade players/prospects to help the big league club while knowing that the cubbard isn't going to be completely empty. I think what's going on in AA Huntsville this season is raising alot of baseball people's eyebrows, and there definitely appears to be a surplus of players that will be playing in the major leagues soon, whether they stay with Milwaukee or get traded.

pitching from the mound and making a throw across the diamond to first base are two totally different throwing motions (at least they should be). Pitching requires a full range of motion in delivering the baseball, and pitchers get used to that delivery moving downhill off the mound to the plate. A pitcher who tries to use that same motion when throwing to a base not only takes longer to get rid of the ball, he's not throwing downhill anymore, and the release point needs to be altered in order to make an accurate throw. that's why you see so many high and low throws to a bag. Not getting feet in proper alignment and stepping toward your target is also a big reason. as a pitcher, I was always taught to make throws to bases by shortarming the throw, by keeping my throwing hand by my ear and eliminating the full range of motion. you get rid of the ball faster and increase the accuracy of throws. I think the reason why pitchers seem to have difficulty making throws to bases lies directly with not enough consistent practice to make all the throws. pitchers' arms are babied so much in todays game due to their value that teams don't let them take extensive pitcher fielding practice in gamelike situations where they need to make strong, accurate throws. aside from running to cover first in spring training and rolled-out comebackers, I doubt they do much additional fielding/infield practice.

For McClung, it's always been about his ability to work ahead, and to throw his offspeed for strikes - if he continues doing that, he can get away with spotting a good fastball with no movement on it. Maybe it's the fact that as a starter he's not throwing with max effort that enables him to command pitches better. Whatever the case is, as long as he keeps pitching well as a starter, there's no reason to move him out of the rotation.

Burnett's injury history is far more alarming than Sheets', given that most of his injuries are arm-related.