Fear The Chorizo

Bedard won't be heading anywhere - he's pitching for a team that will be able to afford to resign him for the contract he wants. The Orioles will do that, because right now the only lefthanded starter in baseball that is better than him is Johan Santana. -------------

This move screams of getting Dessens a few starts in AAA to show scouts of other teams that he's healthy and available via trade. Something tells me he never really was injured, and he was put on the DL until an opportunity presented itself to get him in the AAA rotation to boost his trade value. Having both Yo and most likely Parra up from AAA, as well as having Balfour knocking down the proverbial door has presented that option. Dessens probably went along with the move to the DL to keep collecting MLB salary, and knowing that he would be dealt to a team that would give him a chance to pitch in the majors again. He would be an ideal addition to a team in firesale mode to plug into the rotation or bullpen as a stop-gap to get through the season. He's got major league experience, and will allow an organization to keep pre-arby prospects developing in the minors, rather than calling them up before roster expansions and eating up their service time during a "meaningless" season that their team is out of contention in. Dessens' value is as a throw-in player at best, but he would be yet another chip that Melvin can use to get an impact player. ----------------

I don't think the excuse that they're a young team is valid when talking about their road struggles - aside from Yo and CV, who are both in the bullpen right now, their pitching staff is full of veterans who should be able to pitch well on a mound other than Miller Park's. A post earlier in this thread mentioned that Milwaukee's team ERA is a full run higher on the road than it is at home - road ERA is around 5.16, home ERA is around 4.16 as of the all star break. Offensively, the Brewers have scored 22 fewer runs in their games on the road than at home - that can be magnified even more since many times they haven't even hit in their half of the 9th at Miller Park this year. Also, some of the Brewers' biggest offensive games have occurred on the road (Mets, Cubs, Reds, Twins in a loss), so in the games aside from the blowout wins, their average offensive output is probably hovering between 3 and 4 runs per game. Combine that with a team road era approaching five and a quarter, and that's the reason why the Brewers haven't won more road games. One would think the Brewers would love to play on the road with the ability of the top of their order to put up crooked numbers to start the game off (especially since Braun's been up and Hart's been leading off) - problem is the pitching staff has a knack of giving those runs right back to the opposition lately. If the strength of this team is supposed to be their depth in pitching, some of those guys need to start pitching better. If not, hopefully the manager/GM gives other arms an opportunity in the starting role. --------------

Well, all this statistical discussion is brilliant and all, but it doesn't really explain why Suppan, Capuano, and Vargas haven't been able to pitch with a lead for the past two months. My statistical mind has deduced that the reason for their inability to maintain leads is that they've been giving up more runs than the Brewers have been scoring for them. Feel free to WHIP and K/BB my generalization to death, but I'm sticking to it! I really don't care how the runs they give up score - aside from the obvious fielding errors that can lead to unearned runs, every run that goes on a pitcher's ERA is from a batter that the pitcher was responsible for retiring. The good pitchers seem to be able to minimize the number of big innings they give up, unearned runs or not, by making quality pitches in tough situations. BA/BIP, WHIP, K/BB ratios, who cares!!! Baseball is a game that's played, not simulated on a computer - there are so many variables within each game, much less within each season, that can have huge effects on the only statistical outcome that matters...wins and losses. Statistics are a great tool to evaluate and compare what's happened. They can be manipulated and arranged by different sample sizes and categories to make just about any argument that can be made. The problem with stats is that they can't predict what will happen - they may give you an expectation, but they can't guarantee it. To sum up my point, I'm pretty sure the conversation between Yost and Cappy didn't happen like this... Yost "Cappy, I'm a bit concerned that your most recent BB to Mr. Jimenez is an indicator that your WHIP may be trending toward the median you created during your last 8 starts, and not continuing on the median pace when considering your entire career." Cappy "Don't worry Skip, my career K/BB ratio indicates that I will strike out the next two batters this inning, and all will be well" Yost "So, exactly what percentage of your numbers resulted from pitching in 100 degree heat after spending the entirety of the previous inning on base, and walking the leadoff man with a .045 BA with a 1 run lead in the 6th?" Cappy "Gee Skip, I don't think I've ever experienced this situation in my career before" Yost "Hmmm....well shucks, just throw your 7th straight changeup this inning to Zimmerman and let's see what happens" -----------------------

I'm not saying Andruw Jones is going to replace Hall - if Hall's high ankle sprain has him out 6-8 weeks, that sets his return back to September. Hall would still have the CF job starting next season. Jones would leave via free agency after the year, and with what he'll be paid the Brewers will get additional sandwich picks in the early rounds of the draft - something they didn't have this year. What I'm saying is that if it does take Hall that long to get back, why not bring in a good centerfielder that will allow Hall not to have to rush himself back? Hall has shown that he can play basically anywhere, and last I checked he'll still be getting paid the same contract he is now if he plays 2B instead of center the rest of this year. I'm not giving up on Weeks, either, but it's obvious that his wrist has affected his offensive ability, and confidence at the plate. Trading for Andruw Jones would be a move with a win-now mentality that wouldn't greatly affect the long-term outlook of the roster. In 08, Hall would be back in center and Weeks would be back at 2nd every day. Andruw Jones becoming a free agent after this season is exactly why Milwaukee should see if they can trade for him - they wouldn't have to worry about his contract in future years, because he'll resign elsewhere.

He's the type of hitter that's ideally suited for the 6 or 7 slot in the lineup - he's too streaky a hitter to be expected to be a consistent run producer, but when he gets hot he can carry a team. I would think the Braves are at least going to listen to offers for him - it's probably one of those trades that would get Scheurholz a gem, but then it could ultimately lead to a team drafting a gem with a compensation pick after Jones leaves via free agency. ----------------

Trading for this guy would be the definition of acquiring a rent-a-player, as well as the definition of buying low. If Hall's high ankle sprain has him out until September, would the Brewers want to trade for him? A bigger question is would the Braves be willing to give him up for a reasonable price, since he's probably not going to be resigning there, anyway? His numbers are putrid to this point in the season, but he does have 14 HR, and he is still a plus centerfielder - although he is nowhere near as good defensively as he was a few years back when he was a deserved gold glover. His history says that he's going to improve his BA, and have a better 2nd 1/2 than what he's shown thus far. He obviously has the motivation to play well, since it's his FA year. Since the Braves are currently suffering from a lack of rotation depth, and they have plenty of offense aside from Andruw Jones, would they be willing to deal him to Milwaukee for a package like Vargas and Balfour, or something similar? Some combination of a starter and bullpen arm/prospect? Villy or Yo could then step back into the rotation, and the bullpen spot vacated by one of them could be filled by Parra, Thatcher, Balfour, whoever is still on the 40 man in AAA after the trade. Jones finishes the season in Milwaukee, then almost certainly declares for free agency and signs elsewhere, netting the Brewers at the very least a sandwich pick or two toward the top of the draft. Hall doesn't have to rush himself back, and can return when he's 100%, possibly even returning to a super utility role for the rest of the season if Jones is producing. It would give the Brewers an option to replace Weeks for the remainder of the year if his wrist continues to bother him, and he continues to struggle offensively. The 2008 season could then start with a Healthy Hall back in center, and hopefully a healthy-wristed Weeks back at 2nd A lineup of: Hart Hardy Braun Fielder Hall Estrada Jones Jenkins/Mench P is pretty right handed heavy, but also pretty formidable. Thoughts? -----------------------

Tracey's doing us a big favor by putting this guy in - this is the inning to get something big done! -------------------

since Wilson could have made most of the plays that he's made in today's game from a lawn chair, i'm not sure how he'd be expected to boot any of them - he is a major league shortstop ----------------

The game after the Verlander no hitter, I believe Hall hit a HR in the top of the 8th to put the Brewers on top after trailing -----------------

longer the report comes in the more severe it is. Not good. Not necessarily - sometimes a very quick report/observation is very bad too...like "Well, his leg fell off". Not trying to make light of the situation, but at least the replay didn't show an obviously devastating injury, like Theisman's leg, Viola's arm, etc. It's very difficult to speculate what's wrong with Hall - with 25 people actually watching the game at the stadium, it's probably going to take a long time for word to get all the way up to Uecker's booth as well. --------------

Another note on the Mets, is it me or do they seem to be putting a different pitcher back on the DL every other day lately? If Pedro isn't the same Pedro when he comes back for them, they are really going to be starved for starting pitching ----------------

yeah, the Pittsburgh telecast is brutal - they're putting every player's mug on an etch a sketch for their at bat...the first time through the order they had them stand next to a painting they put together or some garbage ---------------

Not really giving it away, but this game reminds me so far of the Phillies game that Hamels just dominated us. Rain delay before the game, once it started the team looked flat and before they woke up they were down 5-zip and facing a good pitcher with his good stuff -------------

That was a great offensive 1/2 inning for the Brewers...Yeesh ----------------------

Hall tried using the wall to get a bit higher to catch the HR that was hit, once he didn't catch the ball he realized he was about 6 feet off the ground - he landed very hard on the ground, seemingly jamming his right leg into the ground - he was able to put some weight on his leg walking off the field, but he had a trainer on either side of him helping him off. best case scenario, he jammed his ankle and has a mild sprain - worst case is that he did something to his knee. it did appear that the trainers were looking at only his ankle though -----------------

I think the key to the second half success for the Brewers lies with Capuano, Suppan, and Bush - Villy or Yo replacing Vargas in the rotation down the stretch would be great, but having Villy AND Yo replace Vargas and one of the other three would really be asking a lot from the youngsters, as well as asking two established starters to adjust to roles in the pen. Cappy, Soup, and Bush need to improve in order to keep the bullpen from burning up - Vargas is what he is, a 6 IP guy who will keep you in the game until then, but he has to get yanked by the 6th inning due to pitch count and fear of the lineup turning over a 4th time and knocking him around. Basically, he's a #5 starter. The Brewers need Cappy, Soup, and Bush to be better than that. Lately every starter other than Sheets (and Yo while he was starting) that takes the mound for the Brewers has been pitching like a #5. It will also help the pitching tremendously if the offense continues to improve - the offensive numbers for the Brewers are nothing to be upset about, but I think it's frustrating for fans to watch this team score runs at will one game and be stymied the next day...with this team it's seemed like that happens within a game as well. That's baseball, though, I think we all have to realize that the opponent succeeds at times too - it's not necessarily bad play by the Brewers, but good play by the opposition. I like their chances going forward -- the Brewers will be able to make deals if beneficial opportunities present themselves from a position of strength due to the depth of their roster. -------------------------

The never trade for an Atlanta pitching prospect rule kind of leaves out Jason Schmidt, before his arm fell off after 8 years of great pitching. -----------------

Ryan Howard is at least 26 or 27 right now, I think He would have been in the majors 2-3 years earlier than he was, but he was blocked by Jim Thome. ---------------------

I think it's going to be a factor, but not a huge one. The Cubs can take on all the salary they want this year, as long as it's off the books for next year. It limits the players they can acquire somewhat, but trades are still possible. The Cubs basically have become an NBA team when it comes to making trades - they'll have to match dollars on both ends or pick up expiring contracts and rent-a-players. I think the biggest thing that's come out of this is that Zambrano will become an unrestricted free agent after this year - with the incredible backloading of all the Cubs' contract signings over the past two offseasons, I see no chance that the Cubs will be able to get close to matching offers from the Mets and Yankees for Zambrano's services. ----------------------

This sounds weird saying it, but how good would the Brewers pen look if they had Marte? He did sort of fall out of favor with the White Sox, but he's been really good this year, and he has pitched in the postseason before (albeit in a mop-up sort of role) Mr. Melvin, time to kick the tires on Damaso! ---------------------

If Cappy scuffles, there's always Yo to stick in for 3-4 innings, followed by a fully rested bullpen aside from Villy. Ned may have too many options to choose from out of the bullpen - good problem to have -----------------

Also, never a bad thing to keep the rest of the bullpen rested for an afternoon game the following day. Yo's presence in the bullpen will give Yost tons of flexibility in how he manages the pen as well - great to have two innings eaters in the pen that are as talented as Yo and Villy -----------------------

Pittsburgh's not the greatest park in the world for righthanded hitters to blast home runs, so the Crew needs to continue stringing hits and quality ABs together. Prince should have a fun time this week, though! I'd be happy with a series split in Pitt, followed by a series win in Washington - anything better would be gravy. I think 3 of 4 from Pitt and a series sweep against the Nationals is also very doable. A 6-1 end to this road trip going into the break would all but guarantee them the best record in the National League heading to the break. Not sure why I'm expecting this, but for some reason I see the Cubs going 3-4 over their next 7...guess I'm an optimist - that and I wouldn't be surprised if D Lee decides to take his 5 game suspension during this stretch, instead of waiting till his appeal and missing games against better opponents. --------------------------

Baseball isn't football - what I mean by that is that you can't succeed in the sport with nagging injuries in your hands/wrists. You end up adjusting your swing in order to get to pitches. With a bad right wrist, Weeks would be susceptible to fastballs up and in, and generally anything hard inside. When Weeks first came off the DL, opposing teams tried busting him in with hard stuff - Weeks was feeling well enough to be able to handle those pitches that were inside strikes, which was why the first 5-6 games back from the DL he was lacing doubles all over the field. Advanced scouts saw that Weeks was looking for hard stuff inside, and pitchers began pitching him by busting him in off the plate, and then going low and away with sweeping breaking stuff. Weeks hasn't adjusted his approach yet to force pitchers to throw him strikes consistently to get him out. Part of it is probably him still dealing with a weak top hand, and trying to cheat a little at anything that appears to be on the inner half (this would make him very susceptible to breaking stuff from righties), and part of it is probably not being able to stay in the lineup consistently enough to hit his way out of it. I would bet that his wrist hasn't allowed him to take much batting practice at all. While it is disappointing to see Weeks struggle, there are obvious reasons as to why he is. I'm not saying he's automatically going to rake once his wrist is 100%, what I am saying is let's hold out on calling him a bust until finding out whether he can stay healthy and produce offensively. Defensively, he's light years better than he was last year. ----------------------