Fear The Chorizo

My problem with even the first 4th and short that failed was that it was already halfway into the 3rd quarter, and making a ~45 yard field goal in that spot would have forced the 49ers to score three times over the next 5 total possessions (3 for San Fran, 2 for the Lions) while holding the Lions scoreless to tie or take the lead - the decision to go for it there is carelessly aggressive considering the spot in the game the Lions were in, and failing to convert in that spot changed the direction of the game whether people believe in momentum or not. Making a very makeable FG in that spot forces 2 extra possessions needed before the Lions were potentially tied or losing, and that's a huge deal when there's only 22 minutes left of game clock on the scoreboard in that spot. Had they converted, sure Campbell would be lauded for his aggressive decision making....but even converting wouldn't guarantee that the next time Goff dropped back to pass around the 20 yard line wouldn't have led to a strip sack turnover and no points scored that possession, either.

From a FG length perspective - it's a much higher percentage play yielding points that makes it a 3 score game than what it takes to convert that 4th and short and then actually continuing the drive for a TD or successful shorter FG that would at best still make it a 3 score game. That Reynolds play on 4th down was a highly contested difficult catch - definitely not the one I'd call a blatant drop on his part (he had a terrible drop a bit later in the game that would've extended a drive for another scoring opportunity). While I agree that a kicker has to earn those 3 points, at some point you've got to let your kicker go out and actually do exactly that in a playoff football game. Just because the Packers stuck with a struggling rookie kicker doesn't mean the Lions should just pretend they're playing Madden any time they've got a 4th and manageable situation outside of a 35 yard FG attempt in a game they were either winning by multiple scores or trailing by a FG - particularly against a pretty darn good defense that made some halftime adjustments and was making it much more difficult for the Lions to march up and down the field on it as the game progressed.

That 1st 4th and short was in gimme fg range in the 2nd half, and the drop/failure to convert absolutely boosted San Frans chances to get right back into the game. That was a wasted chance to take points and go back up 3 scores midway through the 3rd quarter. Had they converted, yes it probably just about seals the game for the Lions- but the risk of turning it over on downs there easily outweighed the reward. Going up 3 scores in that spot turns the 49ers more into a pass only hurry up approach and takes McCaffrey out of the focal point - making that offense much easier to defend. When teams have a big lead it's OK to just keep taking 3 points, especially if it keeps turning the game to going up 3 scores.

Lots to question with 2nd half go for it and clock management decisions by the Lions....despite the 49er 2nd half surge it sure feels like the Lions just got too cute with being aggressive/unorthodox, coupled with a bad fumble and a couple terrible drops and that lost them this game more than anything. Honestly might be a super bowl I won't watch

Goff was a 1st overall pick, lol. And Baltimore embarrassed the 49ers in San Fran late in the season. I don't know how the takeaway is to try and prop Purdy up as something more than he is (matt flynn) based on how many points Mahomes didnt score in the second half in a game his team just won.

It's refreshing to watch a team physically dominate the 49ers defense, even if it's a division rival

onfield talent tends to play a bigger role in how good an NFL defense is, probably moreso than a D Coordinator with a unique/gimmicky scheme - I think the conflict happens when players' strengths don't fit a DC's preferred scheme well enough, and then the defensive performance disappoints. That may very well be the case with Barry and this defense that has been loaded up with 1st round draft picks - but part of that is many of them were still developmental projects who had to be worked into the rotation in years 1-2 of their careers. It was definitely time for Barry to move on, but I also think not looking at veteran "fossil" DCs to bring in and trying to find the next great defensive mind is probably missing the boat on who the best option might be. People slammed McCarthy for bringing in Dom Capers for these same reasons and then they won the Super Bowl in large part due to their defense, which sealed multiple playoff wins for that team. Actually, a similar type of move now that the Capers hire was would be Ron Rivera - recently fired head coach with varied periods of success early in his career as a head coach and DC, happens to prefer/run a base scheme opposite of what the Packers have been doing (Rivera is a 4-3 guy), but frankly the current defensive roster has some tweener OLBs who could slide into 4-3 DEs and I think Quay Walker would be an absolute monster as a Will LB. And I'd also say that a DC's shelf life in the NFL for one team seems to be limited to just a few seasons, anyway - get a good young one that seem to know what he's doing in there and he'll leave for a HC gig elsewhere in a year or two, bring in an established fossil and after the first couple seasons his approach tends to get stale and he's either canned by the HC or leaves after the whole staff and GM get fired. Really difficult to bring in a solid DC and have him stay in that role longterm successfully, unless that's the only role he wants after a previous failed HC gig...Spagnuolo with the Chiefs is that guy, IMO - and even he's had defenses who have struggled with that team due to limited defensive talent.

I agree - if a player can get a TD by clipping the pylon with the football before he loses possession (which is technically on the sideline and out of bounds, btw) with no other part of his body in the field of play or in the end zone, then there needs to be a rule carrying significant risk to attempting that type of play that results in a turnover.

Liking that idea alot...I had assumed Hoskins was going to get more guaranteed years and because if it be too expensive for the Brewers, and instead wanted a Santana 1b/SolerDH combo. If Santana can be signed for just 1 year, then assuming Hoskins opts out the Brewers should be able to deal with the higher payroll for 1 season knowing if they had to they could roll with a much lower 2025 payroll, or if they fall on their face to start this season they could hold what could be the mother of all firesales in July to limit how much of the season the paychecks need to be signed by Mark A for all these guys.

I don't know if personalities / egos would mesh to make it work, but what about someone like Rex Ryan? He was rumored to be interested in getting back into the NFL coaching ranks as a DC....not sure if it'd be a good fit, but if people like Leonhard why not bring in the guy who he played defense for and learned from at the NFL level? Truth be told, I think the only DC job Ryan would take would be in Dallas if Quinn gets hired as a HC elsewhere. Vic Fangio is also out there - but I'm guessing he's already headed to Philly based on rumors.

I think the massive deferral to Ohtani has more to do with them creatively avoiding having to pay substantial luxury tax penalties to the rest of MLB during the 10 years Ohtani will be playing for them, and not about being able to afford a bloated payroll full of all stars because their profits have finally dried up. They have a massive amount of revenue due to their market size, which is only going to skyrocket further now that most baseball fans in Japan and east Asia in general will make Dodgers games appointment television along with exploding merch sales. The "safe" gamble the Dodgers are making with the huge deferred dollars is by the time they need to actually pay that money out, $68M a season in actual cash at that point in time will fell like ~$30M in today's actual dollars in cost, and their revenues will be plenty large enough to absorb that annual debit on the ledger.

If you can't make kicks less than 50 yards at a 85 percent clip, your job is on the line. When you aren't making extra points at a 90 percent plus clip, same. Carlson needs to win the job in training camp against a veteran kicker with a track record of being dependable from inside 50 yards in order to justify the upside of his ability from 50 plus with a big leg.

Look for the potential DC hire who has a kid or buddy that's a S and C coach.

Color me surprised, in a good way! Figured the Brewers were going to make at least 1 more significant add at 1B/DH/3B before spring training and frankly I had ruled Hoskins out due to his asking price. Guessing he and Boras realized he wasn't going to get the AAV they wanted over a 4-5 year contract and went the shorter term deal with an opt-out if he has a good year. Hoskins could definitely fit in at 1B, but he'd also make a really good option at DH if the Brewers still wanted to throw $6-7M at Santana for next season, too. Or, if they wanted to get really nuts, Soler and Martinez are still jobless DHs!

Yes, but Boras is notorious for dragging his premier free agents' free agency period out as long as possible in effort to claw as many offers from as many teams as possible. It's tough to be the highest bidder in a process that doesn't have a deadline, and if you currently have the highest offer on the table but it's a contract Boras thinks isn't high enough, he'll advise his client to just stand pat until a team with deeper pockets comes a calling. Hoskins has been a free agent officially now for what, 11 or so weeks? Roughly 3 weeks until pitchers and catchers start reporting for Spring Training, so I guess there's at least 4-5 more weeks of Hoskins searching for that longterm contract.

This article can be edited and reduced to five words: His agent is Scott Boras

I think regardless of the outcome of these next 3 games, Detroit isn't going anywhere in terms of being a healthy franchise, and I'm actually going to root for them beating the 49ers because I think that speeds up the rate of that particular franchise having to retool. Will be fun watching the Detroit O line against the 49er defensive front - if Deebo can't go Sunday I think the Lions have a better than coinflip chance of winning that game.

Hoping to see Allen and the Bills pull this one out

So what you're saying is quarterbacks with better arms and more natural talent can't also have a high IQ? The 49ers did go on a good run in 2022 once Purdy became the starter, for sure, but they were a 7-4 squad with other quarterbacks before him, too and then added McCaffrey in that same timeframe. I think in general there are multiple ways in today's NFL to build a team capable of winning a Super Bowl any given year....but once your young quarterback is off his rookie deal regardless of where he is drafted, he better be a top 5-caliber quarterback capable of making everyone around him better instead of the other way around, or you're just not going to be good enough. There's jealousy with the 49ers because they've had such a dominant core of talent besides quarterback that they drive fans for other teams crazy waiting for it to come crashing down after they've made some terrible decisions involving quarterbacks in free agency (Jimmy G) and the draft (Lance), then they seemingly luck into adding Purdy with a token draft pick that even they had destined for their practice squad last season and he turns out to be a competent player after their offense gets the other quarterbacks above him on the depth chart injured last season. The flip side of that is the 49ers haven't yet won a Super Bowl since 1994 with Steve Young as their quarterback despite having rosters that appear on paper to be among the most talented overall squads in the league from 2011-2013, and from about 2019 to present.

combing through the play by play, especially early, once the Packers got close to goal to go situations they got too conservative at times. Specifically that 3rd and 1 followed by the 4th and short "stop" (I think they got jobbed on that spot, but you can't leave room for refs to screw you when you're the underdog) - If the Packers planned on going for it there, 3rd and 1 would've been a perfect time for a play action pass, and instead the playcall was a dive right into the heart of the defense that was selling out on the run. The very next drive the march down the field and have 1st and goal from the 9, only to run for nothing, then pass to Jones to lose 2 yards, then another underneath incomplete pass to Kraft that had no chance of scoring. Would've rather seen more aggressive playcalling with a pass on 1st down there. The last 4 Packer possessions went INT (bad short crossing route behind Kraft), 3 and out (bad short throw over the middle to Jones), missed FG (short passes and stuffed run with no chance of moving the chains after Jones' big run), and INT....besides Jones big run, the Packers did nothing offensively to take the game away from the 49ers and it cost them. None of those series included any pass plays beyond a few yards downfield, with the exception of that terrible decision by Love to throw against his body downfield to end the game instead of just throwing it away or running out of bounds for a minimal gain. They got conservative once they went up 7 against a defense that was ratcheting up the pressure and it cost them, because in a way it got Love playing tentative, too.

Purdy does not have close to the arm that Brady did, and his accuracy is questionable when he isn't throwing within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He is a great fit with what the 49ers have on their offensive roster, but then again most qbs who aren't super expensive would be. To me it's not a negative rap on him specifically - I think it's more that qb is the glamour position that gets more of the credit than is deserved, particularly with the roster the 49ers have on both sides of the ball. I think if contract value or cap situation wasnt an issue, you could put any other starting NFL quarterback on that team and they would be as good or better than they are now. That's not a knock on Purdy as a player, it's just the reality of how loaded the 49ers are. If the Packers caught just one of what was three or 4 interceptable passes Purdy threw last night, the football world would be talking about how the 49ers need to sort out how to upgrade at quarterback in order to get over the hump before salary cap and age decimates that roster. Instead he's probably still viewed as a fringe mvp candidat along with McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson.

Specific to Purdy, no he doesn't suck - but he also isn't the reason the 49ers win games or are prolific on offense. I think he is smart enough to realize that if he doesn't have veteran all pros at every skill position around him plus a few studs on the oline, he's not good enough to win 10+games a season. If he ends up getting a huge contract extension the team he leads will quickly drop out of annually contending. Purdy was worse than Love last night - the Packer defense just didn't make him pay for several bad decisions and throws he made.

From a playoff loss perspective, it's pretty comparable - but I'd argue that 1995 Packer team was pretty loaded with veterans amd that era of the nfl still had the "wait your turn" sort of pecking order for contending teams. To me this run feels more like what the Packers were doing at the end of the regular season with a bunch of kids and an aging Favre before the year they blew the NFCCG at home against the giants. The difference is they've already got the young qb in place to grow with the young core and they wound up doing some damage in the playoffs.

Carlson still on the roster is more of a product that he was actually one of the bright spots for this team into late October, when nobody saw this team being capable of making the playoffs, let alone being better than the 49ers on their field in the divisional round. He really did struggle down the stretch, so it is a red flag for 2024. I'd expect there will be a kicking competition next training camp - and if not Carlson will have a short leash into the season. With increased expectations that come with this late season surge. Their youth really showed up in spots last night, Tom leaving the game changed the amount of time Love had to throw downfield and limited the number of receivers out in routes, and the Packers couldn't come up with enough plays at key moments to put the game away against a team that by all accounts was built to win this year. I remember Rodgers' last game against this team in the playoffs at Lambeau, where the Packer offense couldn't do anything and he threw a pick late over the middle at winning time, too. I'm chapped they didn't win a game they should have and kept an improbable 7 seed playoff run going, but I think the reasons why they lost last night are much more to do with inexperience in those pressure spots more than other recent playoff disappointments with veteran rosters, and hopefully they are better for it in the long run.

Specific to the game plan in general, one thing I noticed was how much the Packers were in the gun - guessing it was necessary to try and limit how fast the 49er pass rush got pressure, and the Packers did some good things running the ball from the gun with those perimeter pitches to Jones to try and get him catching the ball running full speed already off tackle - but not having Love under center working play action took away something that had him red hot the last few weeks. He was excelling at play action from under center and then throwing deep outs or deep ins into zone holes created by the run fake coupled with receivers running deep to stretch the safeties out. Those are slow developing plays, but if they're blocked up well enough they wind up being 15-25 yard chunks with every completion. The shotgun play action in this offense just isn't as effective and winds up alot of times with shorter throws in front of coverage instead of behind/between it.