Fear The Chorizo

So now after this trade do the Brewers turn around and sign Soler to dh with the burnes' salary savings? Or potentially sign a veteran fa starter with that $ to fill out the rotation? Feels like more moves are going to spin off from this one...particularly with pitching. I'm not thrilled with the return but if you look at the fact burnes has only gotten worse (not bad, just not insanely great) as a pitcher since he won a Cy Young 3 seasons ago, I don't know if the return was going to be crazy exciting given the fact the huge market teams will just buy burnes in free agency next offseason and hoard their impact prospects. When you look at the amount of mlb control the brewers picked up with these two players plus what amounts to a sandwich draft pick, this trade makes sense.

I may be mistaken, but IIRC a bunch of Mitchell's high K rate % had to do with his initial introduction to MLB in 2022 - which was pretty darn limited. Even with that stretch of late August through end of season 2022, by mid September he seemed to cut back on K's a bit and started hitting the ball with more authority. He also started the 2023 season looking very much like he belonged in an everyday MLB lineup before that unfortunate injury on the basepaths. If he can stay on the field, he carries tremendous value as an all-around player.

Encouraging, but need to remember that talented secondary also had pre knee injury chase young just wrecking games rushing the passer. Like the hire because Hafley seems to be a bit outside MLF's orbit compared to a bunch of the other names the Packers and Rams were interested in.

I would be shocked after signing Hoskins....but I had been advocating for Soler as DH/Santana as 1B most of this winter after Woodruff was nontendered. Adding two RH thumpers to this everyday lineup would be fantastic (and quite possibly too expensive). Soler makes alot of sense for the Cubs, too - we'll see what happens

If it's going up 3 scores on the next play (FG attempt) that's a coinflip vs converting a 4th and 2 that's a coinflip + continuing the drive for a TD or settling for a shorter FG that still are far from sure things that both result in just going up 3 scores, I'll take the 45 yard FG attempt every single time in that spot of the game - particularly after it was apparent the 49ers made some defensive adjustments that were geared to taking away the Lions' run game and making it more difficult for them to score as easily as they were doing in the 1st half. In the second half of a road playoff game, to me it's all about increasing the # of possessions your opponent needs to both score on and avoid giving up scores on to pass you up on the scoreboard. And going from 2 to 3 scores is a huge deal when also accounting for 2 point conversions after TDs. I think if the Lions were up 13 in that spot instead of 14, then I would be much more inclined to agree with going for it - however there's still value in adding to your lead at any point to make what is needed during end of game possessions to tie/win a game more realistic. The broadcasters were routinely referring to Campbell's comments about the game likely being "a race to 30"....he was right in that regard, but I think he failed to realize that giving his kicker a shot to do his job a few times in the second half may have gotten his team to 30 first.

The prospect profile for Chourio is that of a potential generational talent, a big part of that being his defensive profile as a CF - when he is playing in Milwaukee, he's their everyday CF. Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer are all good young outfielders who range from playing good to exceptional defense from CF, and who also can be moved to corner OF positions. I simply discount the "Yelich to fulltime DH" role to make room for one of these other 3 to become an everyday corner OF, because the best Brewer offense is currently one that has Yelich in left coupled with a 1B/DH combination of Hoskins + another veteran DH bat for 2024. Among these 3, I'd say both Wiemer and Mitchell have higher ceilings as corner OFs based on their power potential, whereas Frelick could be a middling corner outfielder offensively with above average range defensively in left or right - or an above average centerfielder offensively and middling defense at that position. Of those 3, I think one of them should be dealt once it's apparent Chourio is in Milwaukee, and at this point I'd lean towards it being Frelick to maximize return even though he appears to be much more polished at the plate than Wiemer presently, and he doesn't have the nagging injury history Mitchell does. I reserve the right to completely change my opinion based on a series of meaningless spring training ABs against career minor leaguers though, lol!

Trevor Bauer is the guy I'd want them to target - I think he could be signed for a reasonably-priced 1 year deal with some sort of option/opt-out tied to it....and if the Brewers fall on their face he'd be a firesale trade candidate.

Agreed - doesn't have to be a big ticket, longterm deal, and there are some guys still out there who make alot of sense to add 1 more veteran piece to solidify the rotation for 2024 so the youngsters can get get their feet wet without being leaned on too much right away.

But again, you don't have a guarantee of a kicker making a 45-46 yard FG. I didn't say it did - what I do firmly think is in that situation of the game, opting to kick a field goal that likely has around an 85-90% probability of adding 3 points to your score and going up by 3 scores against your opponent is well worth the risk of missing it in that spot, compared to the potential reward of going for it on 4th down and eventually scoring a TD to still only go up 3 scores. Obviously things can be situational but there's no analytics to support that he made the wrong decisions last night. This isn't a game in the 3rd week in October - at some point "playing the percentages" has to be weighed against score/situation/magnitude of the opportunity to tack points onto your score, especially when doing so gives your team an additional score lead well into the second half of a playoff game.

My problem with even the first 4th and short that failed was that it was already halfway into the 3rd quarter, and making a ~45 yard field goal in that spot would have forced the 49ers to score three times over the next 5 total possessions (3 for San Fran, 2 for the Lions) while holding the Lions scoreless to tie or take the lead - the decision to go for it there is carelessly aggressive considering the spot in the game the Lions were in, and failing to convert in that spot changed the direction of the game whether people believe in momentum or not. Making a very makeable FG in that spot forces 2 extra possessions needed before the Lions were potentially tied or losing, and that's a huge deal when there's only 22 minutes left of game clock on the scoreboard in that spot. Had they converted, sure Campbell would be lauded for his aggressive decision making....but even converting wouldn't guarantee that the next time Goff dropped back to pass around the 20 yard line wouldn't have led to a strip sack turnover and no points scored that possession, either.

From a FG length perspective - it's a much higher percentage play yielding points that makes it a 3 score game than what it takes to convert that 4th and short and then actually continuing the drive for a TD or successful shorter FG that would at best still make it a 3 score game. That Reynolds play on 4th down was a highly contested difficult catch - definitely not the one I'd call a blatant drop on his part (he had a terrible drop a bit later in the game that would've extended a drive for another scoring opportunity). While I agree that a kicker has to earn those 3 points, at some point you've got to let your kicker go out and actually do exactly that in a playoff football game. Just because the Packers stuck with a struggling rookie kicker doesn't mean the Lions should just pretend they're playing Madden any time they've got a 4th and manageable situation outside of a 35 yard FG attempt in a game they were either winning by multiple scores or trailing by a FG - particularly against a pretty darn good defense that made some halftime adjustments and was making it much more difficult for the Lions to march up and down the field on it as the game progressed.

That 1st 4th and short was in gimme fg range in the 2nd half, and the drop/failure to convert absolutely boosted San Frans chances to get right back into the game. That was a wasted chance to take points and go back up 3 scores midway through the 3rd quarter. Had they converted, yes it probably just about seals the game for the Lions- but the risk of turning it over on downs there easily outweighed the reward. Going up 3 scores in that spot turns the 49ers more into a pass only hurry up approach and takes McCaffrey out of the focal point - making that offense much easier to defend. When teams have a big lead it's OK to just keep taking 3 points, especially if it keeps turning the game to going up 3 scores.

Lots to question with 2nd half go for it and clock management decisions by the Lions....despite the 49er 2nd half surge it sure feels like the Lions just got too cute with being aggressive/unorthodox, coupled with a bad fumble and a couple terrible drops and that lost them this game more than anything. Honestly might be a super bowl I won't watch

Goff was a 1st overall pick, lol. And Baltimore embarrassed the 49ers in San Fran late in the season. I don't know how the takeaway is to try and prop Purdy up as something more than he is (matt flynn) based on how many points Mahomes didnt score in the second half in a game his team just won.

It's refreshing to watch a team physically dominate the 49ers defense, even if it's a division rival

onfield talent tends to play a bigger role in how good an NFL defense is, probably moreso than a D Coordinator with a unique/gimmicky scheme - I think the conflict happens when players' strengths don't fit a DC's preferred scheme well enough, and then the defensive performance disappoints. That may very well be the case with Barry and this defense that has been loaded up with 1st round draft picks - but part of that is many of them were still developmental projects who had to be worked into the rotation in years 1-2 of their careers. It was definitely time for Barry to move on, but I also think not looking at veteran "fossil" DCs to bring in and trying to find the next great defensive mind is probably missing the boat on who the best option might be. People slammed McCarthy for bringing in Dom Capers for these same reasons and then they won the Super Bowl in large part due to their defense, which sealed multiple playoff wins for that team. Actually, a similar type of move now that the Capers hire was would be Ron Rivera - recently fired head coach with varied periods of success early in his career as a head coach and DC, happens to prefer/run a base scheme opposite of what the Packers have been doing (Rivera is a 4-3 guy), but frankly the current defensive roster has some tweener OLBs who could slide into 4-3 DEs and I think Quay Walker would be an absolute monster as a Will LB. And I'd also say that a DC's shelf life in the NFL for one team seems to be limited to just a few seasons, anyway - get a good young one that seem to know what he's doing in there and he'll leave for a HC gig elsewhere in a year or two, bring in an established fossil and after the first couple seasons his approach tends to get stale and he's either canned by the HC or leaves after the whole staff and GM get fired. Really difficult to bring in a solid DC and have him stay in that role longterm successfully, unless that's the only role he wants after a previous failed HC gig...Spagnuolo with the Chiefs is that guy, IMO - and even he's had defenses who have struggled with that team due to limited defensive talent.

I agree - if a player can get a TD by clipping the pylon with the football before he loses possession (which is technically on the sideline and out of bounds, btw) with no other part of his body in the field of play or in the end zone, then there needs to be a rule carrying significant risk to attempting that type of play that results in a turnover.

Liking that idea alot...I had assumed Hoskins was going to get more guaranteed years and because if it be too expensive for the Brewers, and instead wanted a Santana 1b/SolerDH combo. If Santana can be signed for just 1 year, then assuming Hoskins opts out the Brewers should be able to deal with the higher payroll for 1 season knowing if they had to they could roll with a much lower 2025 payroll, or if they fall on their face to start this season they could hold what could be the mother of all firesales in July to limit how much of the season the paychecks need to be signed by Mark A for all these guys.

I don't know if personalities / egos would mesh to make it work, but what about someone like Rex Ryan? He was rumored to be interested in getting back into the NFL coaching ranks as a DC....not sure if it'd be a good fit, but if people like Leonhard why not bring in the guy who he played defense for and learned from at the NFL level? Truth be told, I think the only DC job Ryan would take would be in Dallas if Quinn gets hired as a HC elsewhere. Vic Fangio is also out there - but I'm guessing he's already headed to Philly based on rumors.

I think the massive deferral to Ohtani has more to do with them creatively avoiding having to pay substantial luxury tax penalties to the rest of MLB during the 10 years Ohtani will be playing for them, and not about being able to afford a bloated payroll full of all stars because their profits have finally dried up. They have a massive amount of revenue due to their market size, which is only going to skyrocket further now that most baseball fans in Japan and east Asia in general will make Dodgers games appointment television along with exploding merch sales. The "safe" gamble the Dodgers are making with the huge deferred dollars is by the time they need to actually pay that money out, $68M a season in actual cash at that point in time will fell like ~$30M in today's actual dollars in cost, and their revenues will be plenty large enough to absorb that annual debit on the ledger.

If you can't make kicks less than 50 yards at a 85 percent clip, your job is on the line. When you aren't making extra points at a 90 percent plus clip, same. Carlson needs to win the job in training camp against a veteran kicker with a track record of being dependable from inside 50 yards in order to justify the upside of his ability from 50 plus with a big leg.

Look for the potential DC hire who has a kid or buddy that's a S and C coach.

Color me surprised, in a good way! Figured the Brewers were going to make at least 1 more significant add at 1B/DH/3B before spring training and frankly I had ruled Hoskins out due to his asking price. Guessing he and Boras realized he wasn't going to get the AAV they wanted over a 4-5 year contract and went the shorter term deal with an opt-out if he has a good year. Hoskins could definitely fit in at 1B, but he'd also make a really good option at DH if the Brewers still wanted to throw $6-7M at Santana for next season, too. Or, if they wanted to get really nuts, Soler and Martinez are still jobless DHs!

Yes, but Boras is notorious for dragging his premier free agents' free agency period out as long as possible in effort to claw as many offers from as many teams as possible. It's tough to be the highest bidder in a process that doesn't have a deadline, and if you currently have the highest offer on the table but it's a contract Boras thinks isn't high enough, he'll advise his client to just stand pat until a team with deeper pockets comes a calling. Hoskins has been a free agent officially now for what, 11 or so weeks? Roughly 3 weeks until pitchers and catchers start reporting for Spring Training, so I guess there's at least 4-5 more weeks of Hoskins searching for that longterm contract.

This article can be edited and reduced to five words: His agent is Scott Boras