Fear The Chorizo

I'm quite alright with Adames being shopped a bit right now, because I'd rather get some sort of prospect package in return for him now than risk him repeating his 2023 season and be left stuck with not even offering him a QO next offseason for fear he'd take it. I also think if a trade does happen that sends Adames out of Milwaukee, the Brewers would turn around and sign a veteran starter, DH, and/or 3B to bolster their roster at other positions.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him wind up in Dallas if McCarthy goes down in flames next season - it seems like that'd be oil and water with how much Jerry Jones meddles, but the two of them have a longstanding relationship - with the hard decisions and contract extensions + Dak's huge 2024 contract on the books, next season is the wrong time to bring a new coach into that spot.

The irony also expands with the fact that had Bauer been able to pitch the entire 2021 season in LA, Burnes probably doesn't have a Cy Young in his trophy case at all. Bauer won it in 2020 with that short COVID season as a Red and his numbers in 2021 were right there again.

What the Brewers appear to be getting ready to do in 2024 (i.e., turning over a bunch of rotation spots to prospects/young starters) is pretty much the exact same thing they did in 2019 when Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta first saw a bunch of starts together in the rotation after their 2018 playoff run with a makeshift rotation. at least that was the plan, until injury (Peralta) and performance (Burnes) had two of them out of that rotation In 2019 before it every really got rolling, Burnes was probably the worst starter in baseball and actually wound up back in AAA before being bumped back up in the pen during the wildcard push late in the season. Freddy had shoulder issues by late April that season and came back largely in a bullpen role when he did get healthier, and he really pitched pretty poorly that year. And last season's Brewer starting rotation was far from the strength of the roster - it was the bullpen, then the defense, then starting pitching and hitting was the weakest link for most of the year. This offseason, the bullpen has either stayed the same or got even better/deeper, two key starters moved on due to injury (Woody) or trade/contract (Burnes). Lauer was a complete nonfactor and Woodruff missed a ton of the 2023 season - people look at the names on the 40 man compared to what they had headed into last season and assume their rotation will be worse, without realizing two of the key starters in 2023 didn't provide enough innings or positive production to even factor into the overall success of a team that won its division easily. I'm not singling you or anyone in particular out, but to me it seems like some posters upset about the return for Burnes still act like he's coming off his his 2021 season (no doubt top 5 starter in the game), and not his last two seasons (#20-30 starter in the game range). 1 year of performance for a guy that will win a Cy Young award for you is worth more than what the Brewers got from the Orioles via trade, however 1 year for a guy who "might" be a Cy Young contender for you if he pitches better than he has the past couple seasons is much more in line for what the Brewers got in terms of prospect/mlb ready player with upside/draft capital. And even if some people disagree with that assessment, what they got is alot more than a package for Burnes at the deadline this year would've netted. The debate IMO may be if the current Brewers' roster with Burnes was good enough to roll the dice on getting more value overall for the franchise by a "run it back" rotation approach headlined by Burnes and Peralta, and trying to win a WS with him and then getting nothing in return but a QO pick in the 2025 draft, or if trading him this offseason was the right move and giving the organization flexibility to backfill his roster spot with cheaper young talent knowing there will be bumps in the road with the rotation that need to be navigated to get that part of the roster in better shape longterm.

His acquisition that season was also widely panned by brewer fans

The Cubs? no - the Reds? Probably....but its still about 2 months from opening day and I'd wager that rosters on paper now will look different then for teams, perhaps most notably in Milwaukee. On top of that, young talent is very difficult to predict how it impacts wins and losses, and the Brewers are loaded with that right now. At this exact moment I still fail to see the Cubs actually being better now than they were last season, btw. They are paying their manager alot more, so they have that going for them I guess.

2022 was Ortiz's 2nd full minor league season, which also happened to be when the Orioles were just crawling out from their Astros-esque prospect hoarding doldrums and started having to call guys up to the majors because they were out of room stockpiling talent down on the farm while their MLB team was losing 100+ games a season. And I'd wager the Orioles' decision to trade Ortiz is 1% based on what their opinion of what he could be as an everyday MLB shortstop/middle infielder offensively, and 99% to do with realizing Ortiz is totally blocked at that position by two other players who project to be better than him, and basically all other MLB shortstops. To your other post - I'm not saying Covid caused prospects to regress in development, but I do think it caused them delays in being MLB-ready products and leads to difficulty projecting what their prime production seasons will look like. You're right, HOF-caliber talent starts playing baseball at the major league level younger than 25....it's also untradeable for a veteran pitcher with 1 year left of team control before reaching free agency, no matter how great the pitcher was 3 years ago when he won a Cy Young while only having to take the ball every 6th day due to a deep rotation and bullpen.

Worth noting both guys are already 25. True prospects that will have an impact at the MLB level tend to get to MLB a bit sooner. You mean like Woodruff, who was 25 when he rolled into being a bullpen option down the stretch in 2018 and in the playoffs (btw, Hall was in that exact same role on last fall's Oriole playoff roster)? And if I'm not mistaken, Hall still has 6 more years of team control tied to him before becoming a free agent, regardless of his current age. I don't think age has nearly as much to do with concerns over a pitcher drafted out of high school who missed a full season of development in the minors due to COVID, plus had his 2021 season cut short due to elbow concerns. Those two years would've been years #3 and 4 in the minors, which are typically the seasons where talented high school arms ramp up their workloads over 100 IP+. For reference, Justin Steele never went over 100 IP in any of his 7! miLB seasons before finally being a regular in the Cubs' rotation in 2022 as a 26 yr old. Hall was a 1st round pick in 2017 with a 100-mph arm and plus secondary offerings, but likely is several years behind what a typical pitching prospect would have in terms of development, and those missed years don't mean his stuff has the potential to be any less dominant at the MLB level. Had Covid and Hall's 2021 arm injury not occurred when they did in his minor league development, Hall would've been up for good in Baltimore as a 22 or 23 yr old. As for Ortiz being 25 - he was drafted as a 20 yr old out of college in 2019, missed all of his age 21 season due to Covid, then went through high A/AA levels at 22, AA/AAA levels at 23, and then spent most of his age 24 season at AAA before getting sporadic playing time across 15 games early in the season primarily because Mateo was nursing an injury and Henderson wasn't yet taking the lions' share of starts at SS. All this while playing in an Orioles system that had a can't-miss superstar both ahead of Ortiz (Henderson) and behind him (Holiday). In general, the absent Covid year for minor leaguers plugged into MLB systems a season or two before 2020 really should reset people's opinions of prospect ages and how much more room they'd have to develop once they do reach the major leagues.

No - because since it was the Orioles who traded for 1 season of Burnes, the Brewers should have gotten two of Holiday/Mayo/Henderson + the draft pick....even though any 1 of those guys would be a massive overpay from Baltimore's perspective.

Now that Ortiz is in the mix after the Burnes trade, if there's a market for trading Adames I wonder if he's next to go and then the Brewers could turn around and pay for a quality righthanded DH - JD Martinez or Soler are still looking for work. I thin Montgomery is going to sign for longer than what the Brewers would be comfortable with - although it is approaching spring training pretty quickly. From a pitching standpoint - finding a solid veteran starter to add to the middle of the rotation for 1-2 seasons, or have a contract structures with some sort of opt out in that timeframe.

Agreed....getting feet wet in the major leagues is no sample to make grand projections. Hall pitched in two playoff games against the Rangers and looked pretty damn electric last October, too.

Down the stretch, quite possibly...and getting their next wave of young arm talent mlb exposure from the pen - just like woodruff, burnes, and Peralta. I like the idea of somehow adding one more vet starter to this roster via free agency for early season rotation depth and then just letting the kids play.

At the moment, no, but I don't think the Brewers are done. If they do nothing else, this trade does make them better next season and beyond.

Ortiz is simply a victim of his best position being SS with a MLB ceiling of being an above average player there, and he was still hopelessly blocked and about to be leapfrogged by more talented players in a system that is insanely loaded at that position. To me it's vaguely comparable to the Brewers trading for Adames when it was apparent Wander Franco was arriving there - only Ortiz was already blocked by Henderson at the MLB level. Hall, to me, is the centerpiece of the return simply due to his arm talent - but that's not knocking Ortiz. Add in the 34th pick in this season's draft and I think it's a pretty solid return for Burnes, actually.

I have a hard time bashing this trade when the arm the Brewers get in return is as electric as Hall's - his floor is a dynamic reliever capable of going multiple innings, and he's got a much better pitch arsenal than Hader so Hall will get an opportunity to be a starter in the major leagues.

So at this snapshot in time, it feels like the Brewers are markedly upgraded offensively than they were at the start of last season, but significantly diminished in the starting pitching department without Burnes or Woodruff in their rotation. I might be reading the tea leaves wrong, but it feels like there's going to be something else significant coming for the Brewers. With how this offseason has slogged along across most of MLB, there are plenty of other potential starters to either add in free agency that would help this staff, or via trade (sudden surplus of young OFs and Adames/young IFs) - The AL Central is an interesting spot to start looking for a young impact starter with similar or even 1 extra year of control to replace Burnes with, in particular (Cease, Bieber).

So now after this trade do the Brewers turn around and sign Soler to dh with the burnes' salary savings? Or potentially sign a veteran fa starter with that $ to fill out the rotation? Feels like more moves are going to spin off from this one...particularly with pitching. I'm not thrilled with the return but if you look at the fact burnes has only gotten worse (not bad, just not insanely great) as a pitcher since he won a Cy Young 3 seasons ago, I don't know if the return was going to be crazy exciting given the fact the huge market teams will just buy burnes in free agency next offseason and hoard their impact prospects. When you look at the amount of mlb control the brewers picked up with these two players plus what amounts to a sandwich draft pick, this trade makes sense.

I may be mistaken, but IIRC a bunch of Mitchell's high K rate % had to do with his initial introduction to MLB in 2022 - which was pretty darn limited. Even with that stretch of late August through end of season 2022, by mid September he seemed to cut back on K's a bit and started hitting the ball with more authority. He also started the 2023 season looking very much like he belonged in an everyday MLB lineup before that unfortunate injury on the basepaths. If he can stay on the field, he carries tremendous value as an all-around player.

Encouraging, but need to remember that talented secondary also had pre knee injury chase young just wrecking games rushing the passer. Like the hire because Hafley seems to be a bit outside MLF's orbit compared to a bunch of the other names the Packers and Rams were interested in.

I would be shocked after signing Hoskins....but I had been advocating for Soler as DH/Santana as 1B most of this winter after Woodruff was nontendered. Adding two RH thumpers to this everyday lineup would be fantastic (and quite possibly too expensive). Soler makes alot of sense for the Cubs, too - we'll see what happens

If it's going up 3 scores on the next play (FG attempt) that's a coinflip vs converting a 4th and 2 that's a coinflip + continuing the drive for a TD or settling for a shorter FG that still are far from sure things that both result in just going up 3 scores, I'll take the 45 yard FG attempt every single time in that spot of the game - particularly after it was apparent the 49ers made some defensive adjustments that were geared to taking away the Lions' run game and making it more difficult for them to score as easily as they were doing in the 1st half. In the second half of a road playoff game, to me it's all about increasing the # of possessions your opponent needs to both score on and avoid giving up scores on to pass you up on the scoreboard. And going from 2 to 3 scores is a huge deal when also accounting for 2 point conversions after TDs. I think if the Lions were up 13 in that spot instead of 14, then I would be much more inclined to agree with going for it - however there's still value in adding to your lead at any point to make what is needed during end of game possessions to tie/win a game more realistic. The broadcasters were routinely referring to Campbell's comments about the game likely being "a race to 30"....he was right in that regard, but I think he failed to realize that giving his kicker a shot to do his job a few times in the second half may have gotten his team to 30 first.

The prospect profile for Chourio is that of a potential generational talent, a big part of that being his defensive profile as a CF - when he is playing in Milwaukee, he's their everyday CF. Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer are all good young outfielders who range from playing good to exceptional defense from CF, and who also can be moved to corner OF positions. I simply discount the "Yelich to fulltime DH" role to make room for one of these other 3 to become an everyday corner OF, because the best Brewer offense is currently one that has Yelich in left coupled with a 1B/DH combination of Hoskins + another veteran DH bat for 2024. Among these 3, I'd say both Wiemer and Mitchell have higher ceilings as corner OFs based on their power potential, whereas Frelick could be a middling corner outfielder offensively with above average range defensively in left or right - or an above average centerfielder offensively and middling defense at that position. Of those 3, I think one of them should be dealt once it's apparent Chourio is in Milwaukee, and at this point I'd lean towards it being Frelick to maximize return even though he appears to be much more polished at the plate than Wiemer presently, and he doesn't have the nagging injury history Mitchell does. I reserve the right to completely change my opinion based on a series of meaningless spring training ABs against career minor leaguers though, lol!

Trevor Bauer is the guy I'd want them to target - I think he could be signed for a reasonably-priced 1 year deal with some sort of option/opt-out tied to it....and if the Brewers fall on their face he'd be a firesale trade candidate.

Agreed - doesn't have to be a big ticket, longterm deal, and there are some guys still out there who make alot of sense to add 1 more veteran piece to solidify the rotation for 2024 so the youngsters can get get their feet wet without being leaned on too much right away.

But again, you don't have a guarantee of a kicker making a 45-46 yard FG. I didn't say it did - what I do firmly think is in that situation of the game, opting to kick a field goal that likely has around an 85-90% probability of adding 3 points to your score and going up by 3 scores against your opponent is well worth the risk of missing it in that spot, compared to the potential reward of going for it on 4th down and eventually scoring a TD to still only go up 3 scores. Obviously things can be situational but there's no analytics to support that he made the wrong decisions last night. This isn't a game in the 3rd week in October - at some point "playing the percentages" has to be weighed against score/situation/magnitude of the opportunity to tack points onto your score, especially when doing so gives your team an additional score lead well into the second half of a playoff game.