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DuWayne Steurer

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Everything posted by DuWayne Steurer

  1. DuWayne Steurer
    The odds were wrong, mostly because it based on assuming they were the same teams that got those records where injuries, especially in Atlanta's case, made that not even close to true. That said, the real odds were likely very close.yeah, both Atlanta and Boston were totally decimated by injuries, but even then, it's an injury riddled Boston should still be able to better than 9 - 30 in their last 39 games. That might be the most epic collapse in history. I'm not *really* questioning the odds, the math is sound. It's just truly amazing that two teams with such odds had such utter and complete meltdowns, and one, Atlanta, had one while the team chasing them (the Cards) got insanely hot.
  2. DuWayne Steurer
    I must have missed something......
  3. DuWayne Steurer
    Brewers beat D'Backs, 3 - 2 Phillies beat Cards 3 - 1 Yankees beat Tigers 3 - 2 Rangers beat Rays 3 - 1 Phillies beat Brewers 4 - 2 Yankees beat Rangers 4 - 1 Yankees over Phils in a 7 game classic that I won't care about.
  4. DuWayne Steurer
    The Red Sox playoff odds peaked at 99.6% on Sept 3rd. The Braves peaked at 99.2% on August 25th. (I'm using coolstandings playoff odds, btw) If you truly believe those odds, there's about a 1 in 10,000 chance that 2 teams in the same season will miss the playoffs after getting to 99%. So either the odds are wrong, or this won't happen again for another 9,870 years or so.
  5. DuWayne Steurer
    what did they do? I wish I could see http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif heres the video Wow. Way to retain an impartial and professional demeanor!
  6. DuWayne Steurer
    Braun didn't sit on Monday to protect a batting title he hadn't won yet. The premise (while ridiculous) was that RRR was resting guys for the playoffs.
  7. DuWayne Steurer
    With a home field series, (and possibly avoiding Philly in the first round) on the line? I doubt that.
  8. DuWayne Steurer
    Bush crap like what the Mets just pulled shows how meaningless some of these titles should be.
  9. DuWayne Steurer
    No. He probably solidified his hold on third place, if it was even in doubt.
  10. DuWayne Steurer
    I see lots of posts where people are trying to blame someone, or 'the pitching' or 'the offense'........well, there's PLENTY of blame to go around here. 1st inning, 1 run in bases loaded, nobody out, offense gets nothing more across. Marcum gave up about a dozen bloops, bleeders and seeing eye singles. Roenicke managed this like a spring training game. and I can't even count the number of at bats with less than 2 outs with men on 3rd that got nothing across. Yeah, they scored 8 runs, but the offense still left scoring opportunities out there.
  11. DuWayne Steurer
    Yes. I know I shouldn't let those things take away from my enjoyment, but they do.
  12. DuWayne Steurer
    Braun's personal accolades mean less to me (and probably Braun) than home field advantage.
  13. DuWayne Steurer
    Although RBI should never be used as a predictive or evaluative stat, 8 RBI in 28 games for a #6 hitter really is no great shakes either. Yuni's doing what he's done all season, which is make tons of outs, not drive in many runs, and sucked at defense.
  14. DuWayne Steurer
    The Brewers already beat up on Minor this year. Not to mention this idea has been debunked multiple times. People just remember the bad games against young pitchers and forget the games where we torch them.They also seem to forget when Brewers like Steve Woodard http://www.baseball-refer...01&t=p&year=1997 and Chris Saenz http://www.baseball-refer...01&t=p&year=2004 ..do it to other teams.
  15. DuWayne Steurer
    "Playoffs are different. It's a different animal," Roenicke said. "You don't know who's going to come through. We all know (McGehee's) got a high end. We all know where the other guys' high ends are. Jerry Hairston is not a young guy. Counsell is not a young guy. We know what they're going to do. So those are the options that you have to weigh. So basically, as I read between the lines here, what RRR is saying is that, "I know Hairston has a .720 OPS this year, and McGehee sucks, but McGehee has had an .800 OPS in the past, and Hairston is old, so we're going to take our chances with the guy who hasn't hit worth a damn in a year." That he's even HINTING that he's basing his playoff decision making on this kind of stuff, when Hairston's clearly outplaying McGehee in every way right now just boggles my mind. I wonder how many O'fers and double plays Casey will manage before he gets pulled?
  16. DuWayne Steurer
    Rickie aired that throw out a bit.
  17. DuWayne Steurer
    I just don't get it. We have not one, but TWO plus defenders that can play CF, so RR puts the geriatric out there that can hardly cover 14 square feet. I'm not even going to argue about batting him 2nd, the fact of the matter is, no matter what, RR's CF bats 2nd. There's no getting around that. I guess RR must be thinking Philly will be easier to beat in a 5 game series as opposed to a 7 game series? If so, bring it on!
  18. DuWayne Steurer
    I'm surprised how many casual fans and even my more casual baseball friends are so quick to want to shed Hart's 'horrible' salary and his 'streaky' bat. I'll be the first to admit he's no great shakes in RF, but his worst career OPS+ as a starter is 98. Heck, he's even taking walks at a career high rate, and pushing a .360 OBP this year. When Werth got his ridiculous contract I said "Pff........he's Corey Hart with more doubles....plus he's older". We're lucky to have Hart at the price he signed for.
  19. DuWayne Steurer
    Jim, I don't think anyone's honestly saying that there's no mental factor to baseball (or sports). I honestly don't believe that at all. I know that it's not measurable.......but the truth is, if someone is playing with a mental edge, it will show up in his stats. If he's 'hot' because he's locked in, it's already showing up in the numbers. What some are arguing is that it's impossible (and always will be) to separate the mental aspect from randomness or luck. I don't even think Topper would argue that there's not some luck involved in going 10 for 10 from the floor. I'm sure there's a strong possibility that on a given night, a guy may give maximum effort, just get great looks at the basket, and just 'try really hard', but I don't think anyone could conceivably argue that one could 'will' themselves to a 100% shooting night on a basketball court. And there's still no way to even say if giving max effort on a given night makes a 57% shooter a 60% shooter, with that other 40% being accounted by luck. We're arguing something that simply can't be quantified in any way. I think it's more luck/random variance that leads to a 10/10 shooting performance, but some will disagree, and that's ok.
  20. DuWayne Steurer
    If you think players can will themselves to having a 100% chance to hit a free throw (or have 100% chance of hitting a free throw for any reason), we will have to agree to disagree. I find the very suggestion, silly and all the math is on my side. This conversation has turned into trying to argue against the existence of god. There is no math on your side since you don't know if it possible to have a 100% chance of making 1 free throw, if that is possible the math is on my side. What are the variables involved? How many of them does the player have 100% control of? If the player has 100% control of all variables involved then how do they not have the ability to increase their chances to 100%? If the odds of something happening are 100%, they might as well not have the sporting event in question.
  21. DuWayne Steurer
    What's interesting to me is that the commercials REALLY make a big deal out of Scott Hatteberg, and for the 4 years he was an Athletic, he was maybe cumulatively a league average player at best, while playing first base. He really shouldn't be the feature of the commercials.
  22. DuWayne Steurer
    Ha!!!!! When it was 3 -1 I turned to my wife and said "ol boy is gonna groove one here, he don't wanna face Prince with the bases loaded". I didn't necessarily call the homer, but..........
  23. DuWayne Steurer
    I wasn't trying to be nitpicky.....honestly. I read your comment and thought about it for a minute, and then it was just a thought that if a guy was leading his league in AVG and homers, unless he's got a TON more at bats than anyone else, he's almost certainly leading in SLG and close to the top in OBP. There's also an easy explanation for why Pujols is down the list on WAR, and that's that he missed a few weeks, and WAR is a counting stat. I'm not going to nitpick WAR too much, I use it probably a little more often than I should, but I still don't think enough of the advanced defensive metrics to put that much weight in them on a single year basis. What it boils down to for me is this.........if Matt Kemp is deserving of the MVP at .331, why wouldn't he be at .328? The answer is simple. Writers criteria for voting is kinda screwy. Some base team winning above all else. Some will base it on mystical milestones that in the statistical scheme of things, are meaningless. Triple Crown is a fabulous achievement, no doubt, but when it's THAT close between 2 guys, those .0003 points of batting average honestly shouldn't make the difference. For what it's worth, every batting triple crown winner in the modern age (post 1901) is in the HOF. Something to think about anyways.
  24. DuWayne Steurer
    Here's the game recap w/ the highlights. I'm sure as the podcasts go up on 620 the Ueck/Plush interview will be part of that. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/56616762.html
  25. DuWayne Steurer
    If you lead the league in both average and homeruns, I would imagine it's all but a lock that you'll lead the league in SLG% as well. And unless the player takes a Yuni B bad amount of walks, he's also going to be top 3-5 in OBP% at worst. I just can't foresee a scenario where such a player would only be 'top ten or so' unless you HEAVILY weight defensive runs. This really has very little to do with the discussion but is what I've come to expect I guess. Yes a player can hit .330 with 40 HR, 120 RBI and just not hit many doubles, not take many walks and be a horrible fielder and not be one of the top 10 players in baseball, it is very plausible. It also really has nothing at all to do with the discussion at hand. I suppose it's plausible. I wouldn't say it's 'very' plausible, not at all. And I also wouldn't say it's not relevant to the discussion. And I'm also really sorry for knocking this thread way off course. Yeesh
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