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Harold Hutchison

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Everything posted by Harold Hutchison

  1. I'm ready for the drama to end, too. I'm ready for the PED witch-hunting to end, too. If they don't have any proof beyond a few mentions - mentions that Braun and his legal team have already provided, then they need to let it go.
  2. On straight numbers, Braun should have had it over Posey. That said, the Giants made the playoffs, so you have to give Posey an edge over Braun - just as the Crew in the playoffs ended up helping Braun over Kemp in 2011.
  3. Hamilton to St. Louis is a disaster. I know they're stadium is named after Beer! How could a guy suffering alcohol addiction go to a city like that? Its a disaster waiting to happen! Yeah, the Cards getting Hamilton is a GOOD thing for the Brewers. Hamilton averaged a .913 OPS over the last five years. What jersey do you want Hamilton wearing, Brewers or Cards?
  4. Soria, yes, Madson, no. Soria's record prior seemed to be more solid, he's three years younger, and I think he could step in as a closer if Ax struggles again. The fact he put those numbers up for the Royals is all the more impressive.
  5. Sidetrack #1: I tend to agree with you there. It goes to show that it's never over until it's over. Sidetrack #2: Certainly, this thought makes an argument for giving folks like Taylor Green and Mat Gamel another shot to see if regular playing time is the missing ingredient in their success. That said while I think Peralta and Thronburg are hopes for the future, and that Fiers and Rogers showed something, there still are some questions. Will Peralta and Thornburg end up like Gallardo, key parts of a future rotation, or like Manny Parra, a bright prospect who fizzled out in the majors? Is the real Tom Fiers the one who dominated early, or the one who struggled down the stretch? Is Mark Rogers going to stay healthy, or will he have another arm injury? On-Topic thought one: I agree that there are ways to make Josh Hamilton work, and in a fashion that wouldn't cripple the team financially in 2013-2017. Furthermore, I think Hamilton isn't a "normal" case for most free agents, given his past. While most of the time, we'd write him off as easily headed to a big-market team like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, or even the Nationals, this time, it may be different, given his personal history. When you have the chance to get a change to add a bat that has averaged a .913 OPS over the last five years, and .952 over the last three, and you can tame it up with a bat that had averaged a .933 OPS over the last five years, and .947 over the last three - I think Melvin should look into it. A lineup with Weeks, Braun, Hamilton, A-Ram, Hart, and Lucroy in the two through seven spots would be good for the Crew. On topic thought 1A: I agree that the best move is to lock in a good core of superstars, and to develop the rest through the minors. But sometimes, remaining flexible is a good thing. The Greinke trade was one instance where the flexibility paid off for the Crew. And I am sure that Gomez and Gamel could be flipped for some help in the bullpen. I'm sure that Melvin would be hammered no matter which way he moves. What is the worst case of looking into Hamilton? He goes to another NL Central team and puts up years like he has for the last three, and the Crew faces him. Edit: If HiandTight is right with his number-crunching about the TV deals, then there maybe room to make a run for Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, or both. With K-Rod and Wolf off the books, the Crew should be able to make a competitive offer to Hamilton.
  6. I'd agree. Plus, it isn't just signing Hamilton - it's what the Crew gets when they deal Gomez. If you assume a Braun-Aoki-Hamilton outfield, with an infield of A-Ram, Segura, Weeks, and Hart, and Lucroy/Maldonado behind the plate, there's nowhere for Gomez to play. Gomez can anchor a package for a starting pitcher - someone like a young Shaun Marcum (and I would not be opposed to re-signing Marcum for 3 years and $18 million). If the Crew adds Gamel to the package, it might get a good pitcher. Fiers, Rogers, and Peralta did well in 2012, but there are some real questions about them: 1. Is the real Fiers the one who dominated early, or is he the one who struggled down the stretch? 2. Will Rogers stay healthy, or will the arm troubles that nearly derailed his professional career return? 3. Is Peralta for real, or will he fizzle as Manny Parra apparently has? Now, the ideal off-season would be seeing the Crew get Hamilton AND bringing Greinke back, then dealing a Gomez-Gamel package for two or three relievers. If that were to happen, it would just be awesome...
  7. And a 2-3-4-5-6 of Weeks, Braun, Hamilton, A-Ram, and Hart is probably the best in the majors.
  8. My thoughts - based on what Olney reported about the Brewers being a front-runner for Josh Hamilton: cf: Aoki 2b: Weeks lf: Braun rf: Hamilton 3b: A-Ram 1b: Hart c: Lucroy/Maldonado ss: Segura bench: Maldonado/Lucroy, Bianchi, Green, Reed Johnson, Schafer Traded: Gomez, Gamel
  9. Hamilton would be a very good addition. He has a .952 OPS, and an OPS+ of 146. Put him in right, use Aoki and Gomez as a platoon in center. A 3-4-5-6 of Braun, Hamilton, A-Ram and Hart would be very good.
  10. My target for a pitcher in free agency is Greinke. His struggles with Anaheim should lower the market some, and he liked Milwaukee. Offer him 6 years/$120 million. But Gomez does a lot, and he may have put it all together. Even a .725 OPS makes him very valuable.
  11. I'd try to get a good extension offer in now - 6 years, $25 million ($2.5 million in `13, $4.5 million from 2014-2018, team option for 2019 at $5.5 million or a $1 million buyout). The salaries page lists him at just under $2 million. Plus defense, and if he has now hit his prime, and can keep a .750 OPS, he's worth it.
  12. 1. Greinke - sign to 5-year deal (5 years, $90 million) 2. Gallardo - sign to an extension (5 years, $80 million) 3. Marcum - sign to 3-year deal (4 years, $26 million) 4. Fiers 5. One of Rogers/Peralta/Thornburg/Estrada/Burgos
  13. I think most sabermatricians would say that where a hitter hits doesn't really affect production. I did my own experiment, albeit very unscientific. In Baseball Mogul 2013, I pulled a trade in 1979 between the Brewers and A's that had Rickey Henderson (the A's took 3B Sal Bando). Since I already had Molitor, Yount, and Cooper at the top of my order, I put Henderson ninth, and he still did well (IIRC, 60-70 steals, a .375 or so OBP).
  14. Schaefer and Green are still young and cheap. I'd prefer not to deal them unless I got blown away by an offer for them. At this point, I see the contracts of Ramirez and Hart as potential problems - I can think of better ways to spend about $36 million over the next two years. In Hart's case, if the old comp system were in place (offer arby to get comp picks), it would be a tougher call, but the new system makes it more worthwhile to move Hart in the offseason. Furthermore, if there are a lot of starters in the system, some can always be converted to the bullpen.
  15. For Milwaukee - Braun's clinching home run in 2011/NLDS Game 5 Any time in Baseball - 1951 World Series: To see DiMaggio, Mantle, and Mays going head-to-head would be amazing.
  16. You are preaching to the choir, my friend. I agree on Hart, it's Ramirez I have a tough time swallowing. With A-Ram, it's a 2-year, $26 million contract that hinders flexibility. I'd rather move Ramirez and try to get another batch of prospects. Look for the help at third base, ideally, but maybe get someone at shortstop or elsewhere. Maybe get some extra pitchers, and then try to package pitchers for a third baseman that doesn't cost a lot. Trading him is not a blow-up. Try this, for example: Brewers get: 3B/1B/OF Chris Davis IF Wilson Betemit Orioles get: 3B Aramis Martinez That's a 1B and a 3B, and that is a LOT less than A-Ram is paid.
  17. I have to agree - the situation with Hart and A-Ram is such that the Crew needs to move them both. A-Ram is 2 years and $26 million, Hart's another $10 million. The $22 million in 2013 could bring Greinke back - and if you can get AA/AAA prospects back for A-Ram and Hart, perhapsa few holes can be filled at around league minimum. My thoughts? Deal Hart to the Rockies for Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. Helton's fading, and Hart fills a hole there. Then flip A-Ram to the D-Backs for Matt Davidson and Chad Bettis.
  18. I can think of two replacements offhand: Mat Gamel and Taylor Green. Neither would be poor options, especially if the team commits to one or the other as the starter, and gets them regular at-bats. With all the young prospects coming up in the outfield (Schaefer, Gindl, John Prince, and the Davises), maybe it's time to think about moving Braun to another position to fill a hole that might be opened up if A-Ram and Hart are traded.
  19. I'd rather, at this point, go with Gamel at third, and have the Ramirez deal (plus a prospect or two), and use the money from dumping A-Ram, Wolf, and K-Rod to make a run to bring Greinke back.
  20. Of the three mentioned... I still choose Mays. Mays contributes in 162 games, max. Rivera would contribute in 70 games, max. Maddux contributes in about 40 games, max. I'd rather have the contribution of a position player. I'll take the offense any day of the week. EDIT: I am not putting down how good Maddux and Rivera are, but at the same time, they can only prevent runs from scoring - pitching is inherently defensive, and doesn't win the game. Games are won by scoring runs, so I'd pick the offensive player any given time.
  21. I can see the point, but what to be done? I think step one has to be letting Wolf, K-Rod, and Loe go. The next step has to be getting a good deal for A-Ram - say, a middle-infield prospect, an outfielder, and a high-ceiling arm. The following step is seeing if Hart will extend beyond 2013 (I thought he was signed until 2015). If he will, he handles first. If not, he gets dealt, preferable for a high-ceiling arm and a third baseman. That should free a bunch of money up. Re-sign Marcum to a two-year/$15 million deal (why go one year, if he will come cheap - I say, go for two). Sign Greinke to a six-year, $120 million deal to solidify the rotation (Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Fiers, and one of the rookies will be OK for 2013). Then, start to see what the young players do on the field.
  22. I think a longer window is possible, but the Brewer's don't need a fire sale now. My thoughts: 1. Let Wolf, K-Rod, Loe, and Morgan go. Deal A-Ram for some younger players/prospects (not a fire sale, but I want to free up the upcoming $26 million over 2013 and 2014 for a middle-infield prospect, a high-ceiling pitcher, and an outfielder or a corner infielder). 2. I'd use the money from them to make a run at bringing Greinke back (6 years, $120 million). Try to get Marcum back for two years at $8 million a year. 3. I'd keep Hart through 2013, and think about a deal in 2014 if Morris or someone else is ready at first. As for Weeks, I may want to look and see what emerges after 2013 (depending on what comes from an A-Ram trade). Lineup: RF: Aoki 2B: Weeks LF: Braun 1B: Hart C: Lucroy 3B: Gamel CF: Gomez SS: Seguira
  23. For Marcum to leave next year? OK, that's one year later for us to try to get a comp pick. I'd lay out a 4 year, $28 million deal with incentives for innings pitched. If Marcum is healthy in that timeframe, it's a bargain. If he does have more durability issues (As was the case in 2011 and this year), the payroll hit is moderated.
  24. The fact that both Fiers and Aoki are doing well makes it worse - the votes will split. I see ROTY going Harper, Aoki, Fiers - just like `85 when Higuera and Riles finished 2-3 in the voting.
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