jeffy
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Everything posted by jeffy
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According to that, with the home team down one run in the bottom of the ninth, they are better off with a runner on 1st and no outs that with a runner on second and 1 out. 33% chance of winning in the 1st scenario 28% in second (I used 4.5 run scenario, assuming that is about average). This too is overly simplified as it assumes a successful bunt, while on average the success rate i something like 70%, IIRC. So the bunt scenario is really a ~70% chance of a runner on second with one out and a 30% chance of a worse situation such as a runner on 1st with 2 outs or bases empty and 2 outs. The 70% is not quite right either as there is a chance the bunt results in a hit or an error. Having read "The Book", as others have mentioned, what the defense is doing is a big factor. Bunting when they are not playing for it can be a good strategy, bunting when the 1st and 3rd basemen are about even with the pitcher's mound, not so much.
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But that is kind of like complaining that the Brewers could have drafted Pujols and did not...well neither did any other team for 12 rounds. So every single team had a chance (12 chances) to take him but passed on the opportunity. Yeah, they were all wrong, but they all thought there were a whole lot of better options. In the same way every team passed on Cruz, every GM felt there were a lot of better options than picking him up essentially for nothing. -
Maybe they coulda tried a triple steal...that'd be real "out of the box".
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But didn't he get lucky on some hard hit balls in that one, while yesterday he was fooling the batters? (I did not see either of those performances, but that seems to be what I read about them) I'd rather have Hoffman be the "closer" given that this means he gets the defined role of collecting saves and that is pretty much the only times he is used. This allows at least the potential that there can a little more flexibility in the use of the rest of the bull pen. As an older guy, he probably benefits more from that. Also, if he has actually returned to form, maybe they get something for him in July (assuming the Brewers are still out of it, as expected).
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Actually if we are stuck with the idea that the "closer" is to be used exclusively in accordance with current standard practice...meaning that the "save" stat basically determines when he is used, then I'd rather have Hoffman (assuming yesterday was not a fluke) be the closer. This way there is at least potentially more flexibility in the use of those young guys. Also I would guess that an older pitcher, like Hoffman, probably benefits much more from having a very defined role. Plus if Hoffman returns to form, but the Brewers remain out of it, perhaps they can get something for him in July.
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Sheets turned down arbitration when he was injured and ended up not pitching for a year. I don't think he had any interest in staying with the Brewers.
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[quote name=TheCrew07 wrote: His best move for many posters here, acquiring Sabathia, would have failed miserably as well if not for the Mets letting the Brewers steal the WC. [/b] That move may have succeeded to a far greater extent had Sheets not gotten injured. In addition, had the team not had the disastrous period, that led to firing Yost, they would not have limped into the playoffs as they did and might have had more success. When Melvin made that move, it looked like it could have led to a WS as they had two very good starting pitchers.
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Maybe something like this program: http://3psports.com/3pn/ could help our pitchers...oh, wait...
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I was wondering about that too, the only thing I could think of was that there was a visit that I did not notice during or after the altercation with the umpire. It appears that was the case from this story: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j2cko85-RTUlKROiTqlF6LA99FTgD9FRKO500 Rapuano actually approached the mound to angrily confront Bush, who was held back by teammate Prince Fielder. Pitching coach Rick Peterson came out to talk to Bush, who promptly served up a sharp two-run single to Kubel.
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Too bad the ump did not toss Bush, what was it?, 5 runs ago.
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I'm sure there are plenty that would, he is left-handed and a pitcher, after all.
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I think they fire him unless they sweep But that still means the decision (or carrying out the decision, anyway) may effectively hinge on the outcome of one game. 3-0 keep him, 2-1 fire him. (Not that it matters, but I thought I was responding to: I still say Macha needs two wins in Minnesota to save his job.)
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Fine but then the theory that has been expressed is they will do it or not do it based on what comes down to the results of one game. 1-2 in MN and Macha is fired, 2-1 we keep him (at least until June 7, I guess). Was Yost fired on an off day, IIRC it was not. (edit: checked the 2008 schedule and it apparently was an off day)
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That's just crazy talk, it's not been done that way in over 20 years, you gotta use the 8th inning (or "setup") guy! It is amusing to hear our TV announcers go on and on about how difficult not having a defined "closer" makes things. Oh my, those guys don't know when they might come into a game! And then there are the incredibly difficult managerial decisions that have to be made. Two things I hate about modern baseball: The DH (thank goodness the brewers moved to the NL) and the cult of the closer.
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If "they" already knew that they wanted to make a change, why would an 0-6 home stand not have been sufficient to provide the timing?
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The "hijacking" seems related to the topic. If the problem is that the team has been built with a lack of both pitching and defense, is there really much that can be done about it in the middle of the season? Ken Rosenthal:"Except for Gallardo, the Brewers’ starters are so soft, they can’t get through lineups twice... Velocity isn’t everything, but it’s not as if the Brewers are control artists — their walk rate is also the second-highest in the NL. Then again, if you were a Milwaukee pitcher, you might be afraid of contact, too. The Brewers...rank last in the majors in defensive efficiency, a statistic that measures the percentage of balls in play that are converted into outs." http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-Brewers-change-pitchers-or-management-051910
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Funny he says "if Macha is not exactly the problem, neither is his overbearing, sometimes grating style the solution". This sounds quite different from the complaints that fans have about Macha. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-Brewers-change-pitchers-or-management-051910
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If the Twins emphasis has been pitching and defense, that certainly seems to have worked out better than the Brewers emphasis on sluggers. One question mark would be how much the dome helped them by giving them an above average home field advantage.
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I really don't understand the fans that get so worked up over Macha not getting worked up. I guess it is kind of like the hockey fans that want to see fights on the ice. I bet most of the fans with these complaints would not be motivated to work harder for a boss that was like the manager that they think the Brewers need. One could just as well say a young excitable team needs a calming influence like Macha...which is probably what fans would be saying if the team currently had a screaming lunatic in the dugout. (In fact wasn't that kinda what was said about Yost, that he was too uptight and excitable and this led to these delicate youths pressing too much?) BTW, when will this no longer be considered a young team? Looking at the active roster there are only 3 players under age 27 and one of those 3 is Fielder, who certainly is now a veteran based on his MLB experience. Gomez is 25, so that would put the normal roster back at maybe 3 "young" players. FWIW, Hunt had the same sort of comments here:http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/94217824.html I also figure they will fire Macha, just for PR purposes. If they are not going to bring him back next year, there really is no reason not to fire him even if the purpose is just to appease the fans.
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In Tampa Bay's case those two approaches would end up being the same due to the division they are in, wouldn't they?
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While it is true that it is safer for the manager to fail conventionally by putting the closer in, in Macha's case one can hardly blame him as his bosses have made it quite clear, by signing Hoffman and hyping 600 saves, that they expect Macha to follow this closer convention. Unless he had a lot of input into these decisions, Macha really was given no choice. If the team had signed a bunch of random relievers and left it to Macha to decide who, if anyone, would be the closer, then the choice to follow convention would be completely Macha's.
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Is our 9th best hitter Jim Thome? The difference we are talking about is, I think, more like Counsell, Escobar, or Gerut vs. Gallardo or Parra batting. There is also the option to use pinch hitters, so we might only be talking about 1-2 at bats for the pitcher and this is only on the remote chance that the catcher happens to get injured in that particular game.
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I think that is the way to do it, give some guys a partial day off without losing their bats and simultaneously upgrade the defense (although I don't know if they really have an upgrade for 2b, Weeks has his problems, but he does have a lot of range). Since Braun just had some time off in the Atlanta series, using Weeks, McGehee, and Price might be the best way to do it.
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Not really, Kottaras just becomes catcher and they lose the DH for the rest of the game...not that big a deal, especially with several Brewer starters being not too bad at hitting.
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You mean the most critical time in a game is not facing the bottom of the order in the 9th with a 3 run lead? The save is a joke of a stat, the Brewers should have done what you say Oakland did and traded Hoffman at the deadline last year. You would think they have enough recent history with closers blowing up that they would not have counted on him having another year like 2009. Besides, even if they had traded him, they theoretically could have resigned him for 2010, anyway. If they had stuck with the original formula, given at the link in my prior post, the save might mean something. "Initially, to earn a save, the reliever had to come in with the tying or winning run on base or at the plate and finish the game With the lead." I could see adding the 3 inning save to that, but that should be about it. As difficult as it seems to be for Hoffman to do so, protecting a 2 or 3 run lead for one inning with no one on base is no great feat, as we all know.
