One factor that may skew the data, however, is the tendency of teams not to push HS pitchers in their initial seasons. They won't draft a guy if he's hurt, and if they don't pitch him a lot right after he's drafted, his injury risk at 18 is dramatically reduced. But that's just a guess, and I don't know how long the premise (that teams baby HS pitching draftees at first) has even been true. It could also suggest college pitchers are being pushed too hard until they are drafted. Thus developing injuries after the fact from overuse.