JohnBriggs12
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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12
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Papelbon could still help the Brewers by staying in Philly. They have a lot of game left with Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Miami who are all chasing a wild card spot. He'd definitely be a difference maker but not sure Brewers want to commit to spending $13 million on a closer for next year. More realistic if he can clear waivers, or get to the Brewers is a guy like Chad Qualls.
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I just don't see RRR taking two guys coming back from injury (Lohse and Garza) and give them only 4 days rest between starts. He already Garza is part of his 5 man rotation when he returns. And he specifically mentioned 5 man rotation. Here is what I see happening: Lohse pitches tonight, followed by Nelson, Gallardo, Peralta, and then Fiers. Garza is scheduled for a full bullpen Session on Tuesday 8/26. He will then go down and do 1 re-hab stint in the minors this weekend. After that he will be inserted into Nelson's spot for the game vs St. Louis at Miller Park on Saturday Sept 6th. (Nelson's spot in the order. Nelson will then go to the pen) Rotation to close the year will line up as Lohse, Garza, Gallardo, Peralta, Fiers. With Lohse, Garza and Gallardo set to face the Cardinals at their house during that series from Sept 16-18. Final 2 games of the year would line up with Lohse / Garza starting those games vs the Cubs. October awaits. Go Brewers! You obviously missed my point. My point was that Fiers should stay in the rotation regardless whether its a 6 man, 5 man or even 4 man. The 4 man rotation was used to make the point, not to suggest it be done or that it was a realistic option.
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Any thoughts on possible Aug. trades?
JohnBriggs12 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Chad Qualls was reportedly placed on revocable waivers by the Astros. Don't know whether he'd get to the Brewers, but if he did, I see him as a realistic option to bolster the late inning situation. -
If they went to a 4 man rotation the rest of the season, Fiers should be one of the four. It's all about what guys are doing right now, not 3 months ago, or over a career.
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That's a good thing for sure, but Atlanta's beat down of the Pirates has put them back in the WC picture! Brewer focus should be on the division. Having to worry about one foe makes things a lot clearer. Making it in as a WC, while nice, doesn't amount to much if you lose the one and done game.
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I'm sure the Brewers would like to retain Clark but with a minor league deal and an invite to major league spring training where I think he'd have a realistic shot at a roster spot. They could add him to the 40 man at the expense of Morris I suppose but I'm sure they wouldn't have both on 40 man. Not sure there are any clubs out there willing to sign him to a major league deal considering his age and the fact he has zero major league experience. If you are Clark, the Brewers probably offer as good an opportunity to get to the big leagues as anywhere else.
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Lets look at what the Cardinals did last year. They went with hot hands in the postseason who weren't part of the rotation the first half, young Michael Wacha and Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn who had a great September. Their other postseason starter was their unquestioned ace Wainwright. Left out was Shelby Miller who had a fine year, but wasn't as sharp down the stretch. Given that the Cards postseason record has been pretty good in this era, I think it behooves the Brewers to have an open mind and not make decisions based on whether or not a veteran could get hurt feelings.
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The Brewers play 17 straight days starting on August 29th. A 6 man rotation means 5 days of rest between starts not 6 for that period. Rock the boat with the vets? Really? I like to think they are a bit more professional than that. They see what Fiers and Nelson are doing. Lohse isn't the manager, and besides since the break, he's been the least effective starter. The points about the staff being gassed in 2011 are excellent. Gallardo's shown the past couple of years he's benefitted with some time between starts. So here you go again with the 6 game sample size. In 4 of those six games, his ERA is 1.75. Prior to rolling his ankle, 'since the AS break', his ERA was 1.83. He's had two bad starts, which happens over the course of a season... especially when a player injures himself like Lohse did. Did his performance suffered after rolling his ankle? Not surprisingly, yes. In the month of July his ERA was 3.03. On the year it's 3.49. The idea that you've uncovered some trend that Lohse is now the weakest SP link isn't backed up by the facts. Ok who is the weakest of the 6 since the break if it's not Lohse? I'm not advocating removing Lohse, but his recent struggles ankle related or not are factual. Lets go back 10 starts on Lohse. He's 3-5 with a 4.21 ERA. Again, not bad by any means, but the standard this group is setting is awfully high.
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Fiers (3 straight dominant starts) and Nelson (5 straight quality starts) don't need to be piggybacked. If anything, the question marks are Garza who as well as he's pitched before the injury will have missed a month and Lohse who was lit up in 2 of his last 3 starts. Roenicke has to make the decisions here. He's paid to do that, not Lohse or Gallardo. He shouldn't rule out either Nelson or Fiers for the postseason either if they continue to pitch like they have. These aren't kids. Fiers is 29 and Nelson is 25. I think they are both capable.
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The Brewers play 17 straight days starting on August 29th. A 6 man rotation means 5 days of rest between starts not 6 for that period. Rock the boat with the vets? Really? I like to think they are a bit more professional than that. They see what Fiers and Nelson are doing. Lohse isn't the manager, and besides since the break, he's been the least effective starter. The points about the staff being gassed in 2011 are excellent. Gallardo's shown the past couple of years he's benefitted with some time between starts.
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"Fiers can pitch out of the pen" Really? Theoretically sure, but would he be ready to just step in and start? They can stretch him out in spring training, but without regular extended work, he's not going to be able to stay stretched out and they can't just send him down. Long men just aren't used that much. Besides based on what we've seen of him so far this year, you going to stash this guy in your pen? Seriously? If you really want to play it safe, keep all the starters going into spring. If they all come out of Arizona healthy, then make the best deal you can for Lohse. Next year the depth has to come from guys like Jungmann, Pena, Cravy, etc. Thornburg will have an option and he could start the year starting too at AAA assuming he's healthy. One or two of those guys figures to be ready when needed. Another depth move would be to add a non-roster veteran (maybe even Estrada after he's non-tendered), who could be stashed at AAA with an out clause at some point. Point is they could deal a guy like Lohse for something of need, and still be able to build a fairly deep staff.
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A lot of that is a function of who's ahead of you. In SD first it was Adrian Gonzalez. Then for a while it was Anthony Rizzo. Just as Clark's time would have come in 2012 they got Yonder Alonso as the centerpiece of the Mat Latos trade. Clark just wasn't as highly thought of as Alonso and you aren't going to have him on the bench.
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The good news is what was a 4 team race a week ago is now a two team race.
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Wily Peralta - 20 game winner watch?
JohnBriggs12 replied to liveforoctober's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Wins meant more when pitchers completed games. Even then it really took multiple 20 win seasons to separate the outstanding pitchers from the one year wonders. Still over large samples of multiple seasons when factors such as run support, bullpen efficiency, etc. tends to even out, the best pitchers usually still have the best winning percentages if not the most number of wins. -
Overbay's bases clearing hit in LA was ruled a double not a triple. He took third on the throw. I think that's the most significant hit of the season so far in that it capped an ulikely comeback, came with 2 outs, and set the tone for the sweep of the division leading Dodgers.
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Without knowing anything about Clark, I'm surprised he hasn't gotten any shot in the majors after looking at his stats. He's consistently at .270+ BA, .360+ OBP and a home run total above 20. His lowest OPS since being promoted to AAA in 2011 is .861 Careful reading too much into those stats. Clark's played almost exclusively in hitters leagues in hitter's havens: Lake Elsinore, San Antonio, and two years at Tucson. What he's doing this year is nice but it's hardly spectacular for a 27 year old.
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Given the big league success of two other "under the expert radar" Brewer products, Davis and Gennett, I think it's a fair question whether they have another one the experts overlooked in Rogers. These guys were all toiling in a Brewer farm system when it was rated at the bottom. I don't think it's fair to say that Rodgers was "under the experts" radar, as if he was some hidden gem we knew about and they didn't. He was a 32nd round pick, and has been old for the leagues he's been in all the way up the ladder. He's been good, not great, and only the last few years has he started showing the power that you'd think a guy his size would display. I' He can only do what he can do at the level he's assigned to. Typically 32nd rounders aren't given any benefit of the doubt. They have to produce to have a job from year to year. No, he didn't put up monster numbers but he always made decent contact, took his walks, and hit for average. Relating his size to his power isn't really fair. Some big guys just aren't naturally huge home run hitters. That doesn't make them bad offensive players. He doesn't project to strike out 175 times a year either. The fact is he was under everyone's radar, and now that he's raking at AAA after making the transition to 3B, he's now someone worth paying attention to regardless of his age who could be a major contributor ala Gennett and Davis at the major league level and fairly soon.
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Given the big league success of two other "under the expert radar" Brewer products, Davis and Gennett, I think it's a fair question whether they have another one the experts overlooked in Rogers. These guys were all toiling in a Brewer farm system when it was rated at the bottom.
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Is Jason Rogers the next under the expert's radar Brewer prospect that will follow Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis and have success in the big leagues? The success of those two certainly gives credence to that possibility.
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Bianchi career at AAA: .299/.349/.428 Bianchi career at AA: .287/.339/.375 Gomez career at AAA: .278/.319/.485 Gomez career at AA: .221/.259/.345 Lets not get too carried away with what Gomez has done this year. Prior to this year he's never been close to the hitter in the minors Bianchi (who's only 17 months older) has been. It's a huge stretch to think Gomez can make the leap to the big leagues. He's worth thinking about a 40 man spot, but I don't see that happening if it does until after the season.
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Alarm bells are ringing right now (4.41 ERA since break). You don't risk paying $15 million for 37 year old starters. See Bronson Arroyo. Deal him while he still has value. Well luckily they have 1.2 more seasons to evaluate him before deciding on the QO; if he continues to put up a 4.41 there's no need to offer, but if he continues to be a ~3.5 ERA guy it may well be worth the gamble, especially with Gallardo gone. If he continues putting up 4.41, he may be keeping a spot from another guy capable of 3.61 which might be enough to cost a postseason trip.
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The problem with stockpiling starting pitching is that eventually there's no place to store it. Fiers is out of options next year. Nelson is coming into his prime years at age 26 next year. Barring injury, he's going to be in the rotation on opening day. Peralta has arrived as budding star and they are going to need to start budgeting some money to keep him. Garza's under contract through 2017. That leaves Gallardo and Lohse on short term but fairly significant deals. You need to build depth just below the surface of the major league roster. That kind of depth either allows you to trade for a veteran or use a young guy. That's why this year worked so well with Nelson and Fiers sitting there in Nashville at the ready. Nelson we figured would be ready, but Fiers comeback has been a pleasant surprise. Lohse and Gallardo both have value in the trade market. I favor dealing Lohse because I just don't see him as worth a QO when he's 37, and he'll then just walk away with zero return. No a 4.41 ERA in 6 starts isn't a huge red flag, but it might be an indication he's not the workhorse he's been. Keeping him you run the risk of him turning into a 2012 version of Randy Wolf, where he's making too much to give up on too soon. I also think that if you need to, dealing for the equivalent of a Lohse at midseason next year isn't beyond the ability of the Brewers. Now that's all assuming everyone in the picture ends the year in good health.
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Confused about the Gindl/Schafer comment. Gindl's been bad all year, and worse in the last month, hitting just .180 since the break. Meanwhile Schafer's been on an offensive tear lately. I see Blazek, Wooten, Rogers, and Schafer and that's it. If healthy Bianchi will be back too. Wang will have a nice view from the pen also but won't be used under any circumstances the rest of the way unless its and inning or two after they clinch.
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The Reds Infield could be their downfall
JohnBriggs12 replied to Dead Simmons's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
8.5 back behind 3 teams with 38 to play? The Reds are toast as far as winning the division. They have remote shot at a wild card still. As for playing spoilers, yeah, but it's much easier for a team like the Cubs that isn't dealing with unfulfilled expectations to rally around the spoiler angle. Brewers just need to keep playing well regardless of opponent. -
Alarm bells are ringing right now (4.41 ERA since break). You don't risk paying $15 million for 37 year old starters. See Bronson Arroyo. Deal him while he still has value.