JohnBriggs12

I'm with you. FANcisco is such a butcher defensively and such a prodigious strikeout threat that if he's not hitting one HR every 15 or 16 AB's he's basically worthless. Reynolds has at least proven he can do that over a full season but he's far from a sure thing either based on recent performance. Keeping all 3 would mean one would play 3B on the days Ramirez is resting. Can you imagine a lineup with two guys who fan once ever 2.5 AB's? and such poor defense at both corner IF spots? Signing a guy like Overbay who completely ran out of gas last year in NY as evidenced by his .586 OPS after the All Star break last year, smacks of desperation. He's the definition of a guy on his last legs. By the way Overbay's strikeout rate is pretty bad too. At least he plays decent defense one would assume. It will be very interesting this spring if either or both of Halton and Morris have monster springs and the veterans stumble around. One would think Francisco has a big edge going into spring will all the winter ball he played. Granted Arizona numbers are always deceptive, but the bar isn't that high that either or both of the young guys together can't surpass it.

It could be expected teams from major markets would overpay for services of a 25 year old pitcher who figures to be a solid #2 or #3 starter. As for the even playing field well the big market teams can only hoard so many pitchers. They'll have to trade off pitching prospects to get any value out of them

Report 7yrs. 155 million. I was actually hoping the Cubs would get him and see him blow his arm out in 2 years just as they are ready with all their position players to make their move. Ah well, hope this requires the Yankees to at least pay some luxury tax.

Holliday's HR Progression 02-07 2002 in AA: 10 2003 in AA: 12 2004 in majors 14 2005 in majors: 19 2006 in majors: 34 2007 in majors: 36 That's quite a jump. True it was Colorado, but his 04 and 05 seasons were also in Denver. At 34 we should start seeing a decline if indeed he's clean.

To start with I would not have been outbid for Corey Hart. I'm pretty certain I'd be getting an OPS+ of about 120 right there with quality defense. But now he's gone. You really would've been willing to commit to pay Hart up to $13M or more? Besides Hart, what other options did you see? For Hart to make the full $13 million, he'd have to be the same player he was in 2012. In today's game that player is worth at least $13 million, and with every team getting $26 million more in tv revenue and the improvement that a year like that from Hart would provide, they could have afforded it. To me it was a no brainer compared to this mess. Besides, the Brewer offer topped out at what half of $13 million? Had they gone to a max around $10 million, Hart might have given them the discount to stay. The Brewer offer forced him out.

Only partly if its a typical arbitration type contract. If he's cut before the season he only gets a prorated amount. They may be guaranteed since they agreed to terms before arbitration. I doubt it. What incentive would Melvin have to guarantee it if he didn't have to in the arbitration process? The fact that he's opened up the competition even more, speaks to Francisco not having a fully guaranteed contract. Francisco on the other hand assured himself a higher number than the Brewers would come in with.

If Francisco gets cut in spring training, I believe he's only owed 10% of his deal. That contract isn't 100% guaranteed unless he makes the team out of Arizona, then it they are on the hook for the full amount. You actually think if Overbay made the team, they'd keep Francisco too? Whose roster spot would Overbay get? They'd be saving money putting Velez on the roster and cutting Francisco.

He was serviceable for a couple years in SF a definite pitchers park, so I wouldn't say he had no success in the majors. He's coming off a AAA season where he posted an .870 OPS. He was solid in the DR this winter as well. He very well may be a better hitter at 32 than he was at 26. Of Francisco, Overbay, and Velez, Velez is certainly the best contact hitter of that group and he'll take walks unlike say Yuni who also made contact. As for his roster spot, didn't you read my initial post?? I think he can beat out Francisco. That's whose roster spot he'd get. We're talking about a bench guy. I'm assuming Reynolds is the everyday first baseman, not just a platoon guy. The one issue is he's never played first but he's played all the other infield positions and my guess is he'd be adequate there. Meanwhile they can go get Morris or Halton if needed. As for their "already being a platoon at 2B", says who? I've read a lot of people say that, but never once have I heard it come out of Melvin's mouth. May I remind you Gennett batted .324 facing both RHP and LHP. Maybe facing lefties against whom he struggled makes him a better hitter against RHP? I think a lot of hitters feel that way and if Gennett is going to be an everyday player, it does him a disservice to platoon him. Again my point is I believe Weeks is more likely to be traded and or cut than he is to be on the opening day roster. I've said it before and I'll stick with it. There's no reason to be paying $11 million for a backup infielder that plays one position. The money is already spent. There's another 40 man spot as well. Want to give Gennett days off against lefties occasionally? Jeff Bianchi says hello.

Velez is listed as IF, but he's played a lot of OF. Halton (RF) and Rogers (LF) figure to be playing a lot in the OF in Nashville with Morris at 1B so your point is correct. They'll both see time there in Arizona.

Eugenio Velez is now a guy to watch this spring. They obviously do not have a lot of confidence in Francisco. Overbay is on fumes at the end of his career. Reynolds is now the overwhelming favorite to be primary 1B. It appears they are content to let Morris and Halton start the year in Nashville because with all the bodies in Arizona, neither figure to get long enough looks. Velez is coming into camp under the radar after a very impressive offensive season in AAA (.314/.398/.472) and a solid winter ball season. Velez has played everywhere but 1B in his career, but how big a stretch can that be? Seems to me he doesn't have that much to beat for a roster spot.

Okay my revised projections: Rotation: Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, Estrada, Thornburg Bullpen: Henderson, Kintzler, Gorzelanny, Figaro, Blazek, Burgos, Smith OF: Davis, Gomez, Braun, Gindl, Schafer IF: Ramirez, Segura, Gennett, Reynolds, Bianchi C: Lucroy, Maldonado Utility: Velez The scrambling around for Overbay tells me based on his end of year slump and rather unimpressive stint in winter ball that they have zero confidence in Francisco. Velez is this year's camp surprise. I see Weeks getting trading with Brewers eating all but about $2.5 million of his deal. Figaro and Burgos win last 2 bullpen spots over Wooten and Hand. Burgos sterling winter league carries over. Bianchi holds spot due to his ability to play short pretty well, and versatility. He may see action at 2B against tougher lefties.

While this confirms my suspicion that they are close to giving up on Francisco (a good thing), Overbay wasn't the guy I'd have chosen. As I posted in the trade rumors, I would much prefer Wilson Betemit for his versatility, switch hitting, and better bat. Overbay slumped badly last year and gets blown away by power arms (.602 OPS vs power pitchers last year). Late in games that's almost all he's going to see. I just don't see any value here. He's also going to take spring AB's away from Morris and Halton, leaving those guys less opportunities to impress. A sleeper to watch this spring now is Eugenio Velez. He followed up a nice season in Nashville with solid numbers in Dominican. Coming off winter ball, he'll probably be ahead in Arizona. He's kind of been a guy without a position, but hey, that never stopped them before from trying guys at 1B and I like his bat better than Overbay's at this point.

Betemit would have been a heck of a lot better option than Overbay.

Ok, first base seemingly is settled. I believe Reynolds was signed not to platoon but to be the everyday guy there. So where does that leave Francisco? He has trouble making contact when he's playing regularly. What's he likely to do against power relievers as a pinch hitter? There's been stuff written that either Reynolds or Francisco can play 3B. That's a stretch too. Both are very subpar defenders. One guy is out there that I think would be a better bench option than Francisco and that's Wilson Betemit. Betemit is a veteran switch hitting 3B who's better from the left side. Not a great defender, but better than Francisco. Has career .774 OPS, .819 vs. RHP. Doesn't possess great power but can drive the ball, and makes better contact and wouldn't be an automatic K vs. a power late inning reliever. Probably can be had on a minor league deal after spending most of last year in Japan.

Considering he is going to 99% be on the major league team I would say so Exactly. He'd have to be awful in Arizona not to make the team. The chances of that are around 1% but even if that did happen, he'd be released. Barring a rehab assignment, he won't spend a day in Nashville.

"These are illegal substance here. We're not talking about Braun smoking a cigarette" Not necessarily. Braun took something that boosts testosterone. What do you think those all those adds featuring middle age men suffering from "low T" take? I'd be fairly certain those are all on MLB's banned substances list but they are not illegal. I especially love the irony of the guy in the commercial who takes testosterone boosting medicine umpiring. Message is, take it for umpiring not for playing. Braun may have obtained it illegally, but it may not have been an illegal substance.

I would assume the Nashville outfield will include Rogers in LF and Halton in RF. Morris will play 1B. Halton played 48 games in RF for Nashville last year. Rogers has played some in LF in his career. Still, any one of the 3 that breaks out with a big year would have to be in the running for 1B in 2015. I'd like to see them try Halton at 3B. What would they have to lose? He played one game there in 2012 and one inning there for the Brewers last year.

He'll get $2 million base with $500K in incentives that basically all he'll have to do is stay on the team. That's not a terrible gamble nor is he getting so much that if he is really bad (and Morris and Halton are ripping it up on the farm), that they couldn't make an in season change. Last year they paid Alex Gonzalez $1.5 million and he was gone by June. But if I'm Morris or Halton, I'm disappointed that management has so little faith in their abilities. Reynolds is not a very high bar for them to be able to at least match but Melvin sees more upside in Reynolds apparently. I guess Melvin thinks with Weeks out of the lineup, his strikeouts need to be replaced somehow! After all with no A/C in Miller Park those fans in the expensive seats need to be kept cool.

Reynolds was moved off of 3B because like Francisco, he wasn't very good there. Sure he can play there occasionally, but is he the heir apparent to Ramirez? I don't think so. Ultimately I think this move was prompted by lack of progress Francisco showed this winter. His .260/.351/.393 in winter ball didn't inspire much confidence. Reynolds has also done it at the major league level, albeit the fact his coming off two lousy years. What's scary about Reynolds is he hasn't hit over .221 since 2009 so he almost has to supply 30+ HR. He's equally baffled by both RHP and LHP but if he runs into one enough, fine. Will they platoon Francisco and Reynolds? Eh. I think Reynolds is the more proven player. I'd still be looking for a LH bat that can make better contact. It's one thing to carry Reynolds and his 220 or so strikeouts, but having a bench/replacement guy who also fans once every 2.5 ABs? Could Taylor Green figure in here after missing all of last year? Maybe.

Those are off his career norms prior to 2013. I think he needs 600 PA, .310/.370/.570, 35HR, 115 RBI. He has to prove that clean he is just as good, not almost as good. Of course some will believe he's still not clean. What has me wondering is if he does post great numbers, will he get votes for Comeback Player of the Year? I assume he'll get left off many MVP ballots even if deserving, but Comeback POY for coming back in part from a 65 game suspension?

Reynolds at this stage probably is worth 10 more HR than Weeks, and when you consider how bad Weeks struggles in the middle of the order, the difference might be more significant. Reynolds walk totals are enhanced because he swings and misses a lot. I can't see keeping Francisco if Reynolds is signed though. I'd rather have a better contact lefty backing up the corner IF spots than that. Who that would be is anyone's guess. Taylor Green??

Reynolds has the major league strikeout record. If Francisco had a full season he would challenge it. They both make Branyan look like a contact hitter. Only other guy in the team picture of professional whiff artists is Adam Dunn. Both were butchers at 3B. Reynolds might have the edge defensively at 1B. Personally I don't understand Melvin's interest in these guys. Halton/Morris together would likely be able to surpass Reynold's last couple seasons and keep their combined K total under 200 at least.

But Zach Duke really?? So many Brewers have homered off of Duke over the years I've lost count. Sean Halton's walk off late in the year was the latest. As much a fan of Halton as I have been, he shouldn't brag too much about hitting it off of Duke.

Hopefully just to pal around with Gorzelanny and give hitters confidence in BP. Is there any guy the Brewers have roughed up more in the last 10 years than Zach Duke? His ERA vs. the Brewers is 5.99 in a not insignificant amount of innings (103 2/3). Brewers have walloped 19 HR off him, 10 more than he's allowed against any other team.

The most amazing stat put up by this staff last year was having 14 shutouts in the last 96 games and the 5 guys penciled in to start this season started 12 of those: Gallardo 4, Peralta 4, Lohse 3. Estrada 1, and Thornburg 1. No, no clear ace or guy that you feel nearly 100% confident of a win every time he pitches. But no sure loss guy either as in the waning days of Suppan and others. The other thing is that if they don't contend, they have guys that are likely to draw interest which should at worst help fortify the system and also allow a guy waiting in the wings a shot.