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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. I think what X ellence means is that Bush like many pitchers Melvin has brought in pitches with a very small margin for error. That means big blowups are inevitable and that you aren't going to beat good teams consistently.
  2. Travers' career was basically over by the time he was 28. That's why we don't do that anymore.Yes it was, after 6 years and 65 wins he was of no further value to the Brewers or anyone else. That's sad for him, but the Brewers got plenty from him. Seeing that guys are eligible for FA after 6 years today and the Brewers can't seem to afford to keep the good ones, isn't that enough? I hate to sound harsh, but players are replaceable parts. If they got 2-3 solid years out of Braddock and then he got hurt, by then any one of a number of guys toiling in Appleton or Brevard should be ready. If they get 4-5 solid years, that's gravy. All 6 pre FA years? Hold a parade. As to twi7's point that he needs to develop a 3rd pitch. Yeah to reach another level, sure. But a lot of starters rely heavily on just 2 pitches. Capuano won 18 games with primarily a fastball and a changeup. Sheets got by on 2, but not because he had great control. He had control in the sense that he didn't walk guys, but his stuff was good enough he could throw the ball right down the middle and get outs. Braddock has a lively fastball, and a slider that's more of a slurve. There's about a 12 mph difference between his fastball and his slider, so it's not like he throws everything hard.
  3. When Braddock was injured he was a 19-20 year old kid more than likely that just rared back and fired. Next year he'll be a 23 year old, fully physically developed more mature man, who has already faced the games best in pressure situations, and gotten them out using more than just one pitch. I will grant you, just like all pitchers, that there's an injury risk. But the upside potential, given this team's pitching situation, should far outweigh the risk. Even the worst case scenario, that he blows out an elbow or a shoulder, what have you lost? If all you think he can ever be is a lefty bullpen guy, that's not much really. As for this current generational thought that all pitchers have to slowly build up innings, all I can say is how's that strategy worked out for the Brewers? You wouldn't be asking him to do what skinny Billy Travers did at 23 back in 1976 and throw 240 innings (though if he gave the Brewers what Travers did in 76, you could buy playoff tickets now). You'd just like him to work 175-80 innings over 30 starts where his pitch count is carefully monitored.
  4. He's got starter stuff, has proven he can out major league hitters from both sides of the plate and he turns 23 next month. Isn't this a no-brainer? I keep reading that Brewers pitching situation is so desperate that they need to trade two top hitters. I just don't see it. Let's assume for sake of this discussion that Fielder is traded for Daniel Hudson or similar type major league ready starter. Anyone object if this is the rotation come opening day 2011? Gallardo, Wolf, Hudson, Braddock, Narveson Yes, they'd have to find a lefty bullpen specialist, but those guys are a lot easier to find than quality young starters. Braddock is wasted in that role.
  5. It somewhat depends on how he does the rest of this year, but any team signing him this year will want a very low base with plenty of incentives if not another minor league deal. Frankly, he would not be my top priority if I'm the Brewers. His repertoire is pretty limited and he remains an injury risk. Barring that big deal that brings the Brewers a top young arm, they are going to have to add a starter or two via FA or trade, but be smarter than they were in 08 and 09. For some reason Melvin has shunned the ground ball type in favor of more strikeouts but at the expense of more fly balls too. He needs to re-think that.
  6. Posey's numbers are Braun-like. If he gets to 375 or so PA with similar numbers, he's a main contender along with Strasburg and Mike Leake if Garcia falls off. Heyward's numbers are no more impressive than Tyler Colvin's or Ike Davis', and those guys are below Posey.
  7. I'm concerned but not overly surprised by the lack of any news on his return. I personally knew someone that had this procedure at around the same age as Uecker. It was not a simple case of just recovering from surgery and being back to normal in a couple months. It takes time and effort to regain strength but more importantly stamina. I wish Bob the best.
  8. Two guys who I think should have been added to the list are both at Brevard: Sean Halton: He raked last year minus the power you'd expect out of a 6'5" 240 lb first baseman. But after jumping two levels to Brevard, he now has 9 HR in a pitchers park and leads the entire minor league system in RBI. Yes he's 23 (barely), but without much in front of him at 1B, he figures to continue progressing. Shawn Zarraga: It's tough to get much attention as a 44th rounder, but a 21 year old catcher with a .392 OBP at high A ball? It's not like he hadn't done anything previously either having put up an .868 OPS at age 19 in rookie ball in 08, with a .432 OBP. Let's hear it for the Shawns or the Seans whatever you prefer.
  9. Garcia should be the choice over Strasburg. It will take a great run for people to notice, but shouldn't Axford's name at least be brought up? It's not often that a rookie is put in the closer's role and he's a big reason Hoffman will likely end the season short of 600.
  10. I just threw a figure (half of what was offered Fielder) out there as one I'm quite sure Hart would take. It's higher than I suspect it would take too but not by a ton. He figures to get a really healthy arby raise. My point was not so much what it would take to sign Hart. I think your looking realistically at $40-42 million over 4 which even if you are looking at his career norms of .276/.330/.485 isn't out of line for a free agent to be who doesn't turn 29 until next March. If he's close to his current year's numbers over the life of it, that's a major bargain and it won't preclude you from dealing him later (barring a no-trade). If you wait another year and he keeps performing like he is now, it could go up substantially. My point was that they cannot keep reacting to what happened in the past. It turned out to be a mistake to extend Hall. That doesn't mean it would be to extend Hart. The two are not related. They are not even similar. They bought out all of Hall's arby years plus one year of FA when he was 26. Hart has only one arby year left and has more of a track record albeit somewhat up and down. Another difference is Hall wasn't much of a hitter in the minors. Hart was. Of course if Hart's agent takes the stand of Fielder's then you are in a bit of a box. But until they actually make an offer, how do we know? This management group's biggest mistakes have been reacting to previous ones. In 2006, they were caught short of arms due to injuries to Sheets and Ohka. Their answer? Overpay Suppan for his durability. In 2009, they were forced to fill in with a career minor leaguer in the rotation in Mike Burns (who really wasn't all that horrible) because they were short of arms. Their response? Start 2010 with 7 starters on the roster. The problem wasn't quantity in 09, it was quality. Basing a decision on what to with Hart on what happened with Hall is shortsighted. I'm not saying they shouldn't consider trading him, but they shouldn't just throw up their hands and take the best offer out there if it falls short of what you think is fair, is a mistake. Either way, there's risk of looking bad. That goes with the territory.
  11. Ah but we do know this about Belt. He came from a high profile college program (Texas), where he also did some pitching. There are any number of reasons he fell to the 5th round. Quite possibly his tall lean build raised question marks. I don't know who is agent is, but since he didn't play at all professionally in 2009, my guess is he had a high profile agent that may have scared some teams in the draft. The key question is not where he was drafted in 2009, but if there was a draft held today, that involved the guys that were eligible last year, my guess is he's a sure fire first rounder. We also know that the Giants started him in High A ball. There aren't too many 5th rounders, even from high profile college programs, that start professionally in the California League. So the Giants obviously knew something. He's already moved up to AA where he's continued to hammer. His relatively low K rate suggests, he's not the least bit over-matched either. Is he completely without risk? Of course not. No prospect ever is. But if he continues to rake, a year from now he'd likely be completely untouchable. Maybe you'd need to expand a deal to make it work, but if the plan is to trade both Hart and Fielder, finding a top flight near major league ready replacement for one of them is not a bad idea.
  12. Passan threw one really, really interesting name out there: Brandon Belt. Now everyone talks about pitching and yes it would be nice if Prince brought back pitching help, but his absence does leave a huge whole in the lineup that will need to be filled. Belt (what a name for a slugger!) is a tall (6'5"), lean (195 lb) lefty swinging 22 year old 1B, drafted by the Giants in round 5 of 2009. All he's done this year (his first in pro ball) is put up this line between high A and AA: .388/.488/.653, with more walks (61) than strikeouts (58), and 15 HR in 317 AB's. Fielder for Belt and and even a second tier pitching prospect might be worth considering when you consider the salary saved could be used for additional pitching, and having Fielder's replacement (possibly as soon as mid 2011 the way he's progressing) back in the deal.
  13. How about going into next season with the best lineup in the NL without having to trade anyone? That's assuming Cain in CF of course. This team dug it's hole the first 6 weeks. That was due to the failure of Hoffman and Hawkins, failures by Davis and Suppan, less than expected performance from Wolf and slow offensive start by Fielder. They are .500 since June 1 with little offensive contribution from Braun and still not much with men on base from Fielder. All of those are fixable or have been fixed. Had Melvin signed Garland instead of Davis, and Trevor Hoffman been what he was for one more season, this team is right with the Reds and Cards. If they have the money to offer Fielder $100 million, they have the money to sign Hart. He'd probably take half that over 4 years. What they can't do is act afraid because they got burned on Bill Hall. You can't operate that way and win. All the "arms with upside" being discussed are just that. They aren't being offered the "sure things". Teams wanting Hart are thinking they can get him for guys with number 3 potential. SF isn't parting with Bumgarner. 2011 should not be sacrificed in hopes that somehow this makes them better in 2014. That's pipedream stuff. Let the Pirates continue being the team that can only sell the distant future.
  14. I suppose the obvious answer to Monday's start is to piggyback Capuano and Villanueva. The not so obvious answer is to bring up Rivas to make that one start. Of course that would mean another roster move, either Cain back down or Gomez down presumably. Since either would be going down presumably the next day anyway to make room for Gallardo, it would just be a one day adjustment.
  15. Finally, someone has raised a very relevant question! Hooray! How about another relevant question like: Who is going to play RF when Hart leaves? This is why it's almost a given that if Fielder's traded it will be in the offseason, and that it's not a given that the return for him will be pitching. One of the reasons for keeping Fielder would be to gain time while your prospects develop. That would be great except the Brewers are almost forced to replace Fielder's presence with a lefthanded bat because there are non others in the lineup, and nobody ready in the minors if you discount Gamel. My guess is if Fielder is traded for a pitcher in the offseason, Melvin will look to the FA market for a 1B. Take your pick: Huff, Hinske, Overbay, LaRoche (though he has a team option). Maybe even Edmonds if Melvin convinces him to play another year though that's more of a long shot. My guess is that one of those guys will be the Brewer 1B next year if Fielder is dealt. Now Dunn might be out there as well, but he'll command a big deal and he's talking like he wants to stay in Washington.
  16. Thundercat, We follow the Cubs pretty closely around these parts. There is nothing and I mean nothing more grating on true Brewer fans than the presence of Cub fans in Miller Park. What you need to understand is that in general also, is the Cubs and the Brewers do not play on a level playing field. Right now, we as Brewer fans are reveling a bit in that the Cubs have tied themselves up with some bad contracts (Soriano, Zambrano, etc). So to some extent, that has leveled the field for the next year or two. Because of that, there's no way the Cubs would make that deal either. Their new owner is trying to bring their payroll from $140 million to $120 million. Lilly could be gone in a week or two. They won't part with Cashner. They can't afford to take on Fielder and Weeks right now either. Now we all fear to some extent that the Cubs by 2012 will have shed enough salary that they get in the bidding for Fielder. But that's something to worry about down the road.
  17. Gamel is fast approaching the tipping point where he will go from prospect to suspect. He's a soon to be 25 year old who's AAA numbers (.273/.360/.441, 134 K's, 15 HR) in 433 AB's and questionable defense don't scream major league talent. He might get a little leeway into 2011, but he needs to close out this year strong and start next year like the guy who started 2009. If he doesn't I could see the Brewers taking him off the roster at some point like they did waiting for Brad Nelson. His trade value isn't quite nil yet, but it's certainly not where it was 2 years ago. Instead of a key piece, he's dropped into a deal sweetener type.
  18. Gamel had 468 plate appearances combined between minors and majors in 2009. I don't think Macha can be blamed for the slide in his numbers. Gamel came up at time the Brewers were in first place. He got 19 starts between May 18 and June 21 (the last game where the DH was used). At that time he was hitting .244/.326/.402, and was striking out quite a bit. At the exact same time, McGehee was hitting .349/.414/.500 and the Brewers were still in first place. Macha's focus was and should have been on putting the lineup that gave him the best chance to win. He could hardly be blamed for going with the hot bat there. That Gamel struggled after being sent back down a month later and has not regained the level he was at early in 2009 is on him, not Macha. I do think Macha is a little quick to sit a young player who shows any sign of struggling. But that's pretty typical of most managers. That being said, when a young player gets his opportunity with a team that is contending, he needs to produce right away especially if there are other guys who have shown they can available.
  19. I'm with you on Cain and Lawrie likely being in the 2012 lineup, but I'm having a harder and harder time thinking Gamel will. He turns 25 in about 10 days, and really hasn't hit like a top prospect since the first month and a half of the 09 season. It's virtually impossible to project the pitching staff. Any number of guys could figure in by 2012. Most likely though, whoever it is, there will be growing pains and the 2012 team will have a very hard time contending unless a bat or two is retained or added. It's a real long shot, but say if Fielder doesn't get dealt and has another season below his peak in 2011. He could find nothing near his current asking price, and opt for a Brewer arbitration offer.
  20. Watch for key words here: They could compete without Hart and Fielder if they are traded for top notch starting pitchers and if those pitchers perform and if the lineup can score enough without two proven middle of the order hitters. That's a could, and 3 ifs. If no major deals are made, it doesn't mean changes won't happen or that improvement can't take place. Lorenzo Cain may well take Carlos Gomez job by next spring. Sure Hart may fall off, but does anyone believe Fielder will again be worst in the league in percentage of baserunners driven in? Will the 2011 team have a 2 month period of blown save after blown save? Perhaps, but not likely. Escobar is capable of improvement as is Lucroy. Braun is too. The pitching staff needs more tweaking, the bench a little revamping but the money's there to do both.
  21. Answer: No. Hart is cheaper and plays OF which brings a lot more teams into play. Look it's not impossible for a team like the Rockies with Helton struggling and now on the DL to think Fielder gets them over the top and for them to make a nice offer. But can they take on his salary even now and would they actually part with 22 year old Jhoulys Chacin whom I'm sure the Brewers would want? Perhaps, but only if the Brewers toss in another arm.
  22. I think Fielder's value as a trading piece has always been over-hyped for two reasons. One is most contending teams have very productive hitters playing first base already. Second is, with Boras as his agent, 95 % of teams are in exactly the same boat Brewers are in. Boras wants him to get to FA and they would be renting him. Throw in his season long struggles hitting with men on base, the return to form of David Ortiz, and the ever increasing value teams place on holding on to premier pitching prospects, and there's even less chance the Brewers get back anywhere near his value. If you want a Sexson type deal in the offseason where you take a bunch of mediocre and marginal guys, and think that's better than another year of Fielder followed by getting two high draft picks, be my guest. I'll take the extra year of Fielder and the picks myself.
  23. The law in Arizona was enacted by the elected state legislature and signed by the elected governor of that state. That's our system of government. If the people of the state of Arizona decide they don't like it, they can elect different people to represent them. Residents of other states don't have nor should they have a say in that state's business. People in Wisconsin aren't subject to the same problems being faced in Arizona. When a group of athletes or whatever group, decides they are going to boycott a public event because of a law enacted in a particular state to "punish" that state, that is political blackmail. It's totally legal for them to do that and even understanding given the level of rhetoric from some on this issue, but it's also totally appropriate for them to be criticized for doing it. While some may think taking such a stand is admirable, others will disagree. Nobody really wins.
  24. The White Sox may covet Fielder's ability, but not to the extent they'd give up just Hudson, much less Hudson and Viciedo for a year and a half of Prince. Prince isn't going to bring any team's top 2 prospects. Especially now that Peavy's out, Hudson is being counted on heavily and I seriously doubt they think a guy like Dave Bush would be better than Hudson even now. Williams is leery of the NL to AL move for Oswalt, so imagine him pondering Dave Bush in the AL? That's even assuming the Sox actually do a complete 180 and Reinsdorf gives them the okay to go for a Boras client. Reinsdorf loathes Boras. The best the Sox would offer is someone like Carlos Torres who's been good at AAA the last couple years but who turns 28 in October or Jeff Marquez, who's a little younger but less accomplished. Maybe you could get Torres and Morel if you threw in Villanueva and say Taylor Green. But forget about Hudson as the Sox would view Fielder strictly as a rental. I'd assume that would prompt a move to 1B for McGehee, and Morel at 3B either alone or in a platoon with Gamel.
  25. Thundercat32, The bloom has been coming off of Gamel for a while. He's got just 4 HR and 51 K's in 183 AB's in stops at 3 levels this year where he's hit just .268 combined. This after disappointing numbers in 2009. Plus he turns 25 in a couple weeks. I doubt he has much value at all.
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