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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    I'm a huge fan of Lowe. He's started at least 32 games for 6 straight seasons with no DL time. He probably will outperform Burnett (again) for next couple years, but he's not worth that kind of contract. Of course wanting that and getting it are 2 different things. Lowe is probably going to get 3/$45 million with an option. If Melvin thinks he can still move Cameron, then he should go for it.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    Is this supposed to mean something? Matt Bush was the 1st overall pick. Parra posted a 4.16 FIP in his first year as a starter. Floyd has a 5.40 career FIP. Parra and Floyd are exactly the same age. Floyd outpitched Parra in 2008, the only season both were regular starters and thus the only relevant year. Floyd had better WHIP, 1.26 to 1.54, better OPS against .738 to .766, better BAA, .241 to .272, and lower BB/9 inn, 3.05 to 4.07. Floyd also pitched deeper in games averaging roughly an inning more per start than Parra. Parra had the edge only on K/9 innings, 7.97 to 6.32, but of course Parra faced pitchers, and Floyd didn't.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    "A fastball that only runs 89-91 MPH is not above average" Agreed. But Floyd throws 91-93, not 89-91. Here's a sample from the 2nd inning vs the Twins from the 7/30 gameday. These are speeds of Floyd's fastballs in that inning: 92, 92, 92, 92, 93, 93, 93. In that game, he had 2 @89, 3 @ 90, and 2 @94. All the rest were between 91 and 93.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    His record of success meaning one season? Pre-arby pitchers aren't going to have long records of success. Floyd was the 4th overall pick in the draft. It's not like he came out of nowhere. Pitchers picked that high are projected to be top of the rotation guys. It's more surprising in Floyd's case, that success took longer to arrive. Some here think Manny Parra is untouchable, but he hasn't done anything close to what Floyd did in 08.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    Guys, there's no way the White Sox are going to trade Floyd. This rumor came out of Baltimore. Everyone in Chicago has dismissed it. Floyd has near top of the rotation stuff and he's fully capable of repeating his 08 numbers. His curveball is close to Sheets'. His fastball is good too. His success in 08 was the result of his better fastball command that allowed him to use his curveball to put hitters away. It would be foolish for any team to deal a pre-arby pitcher with Floyd's ability and record of success for a one year rental player much less a team like the Sox that isn't deep in the rotation.
  6. JohnBriggs12
    "Prince doesn't make sense for the Red Sox" nate82, the Red Sox just offered Texiera $168 million and he plays the same position as Prince. Personally, I wouldn't trade Hardy for Ellsbury and Bucholz. Ellsbury is a fine defensive player but he's not that special offensively. His minor league numbers were good, not great, and his OBP of .336 in 08 is just not that impressive. Bucholz doesn't do it for me. The Sox seem anxious to move him and that's a red flag. Maybe if it Masterson were substituted for Bucholz, I might bite. Adding Cameron to the deal probably hurts the return more than it helps. Cameron for $10 million has little trade value as Melvin has found out. The only deal I'd do for Prince with the Red Sox would be straight up for Dice K.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    patrickgpe, I can't disagree with you more that McClung "definetely has more closer mentality than CV". What makes you think that? CV is very competitive and a real cool customer. Remember the incident with Pujols? To me he has the perfect closer mentality. Don't underestimate the fact that Villanueva faced 11 hitters in the NLDS and retired all 11. I realize that's a very small sample and wasn't in a closing situation, but it was in the pressure of the playoffs and I think that left a very positive impression on Melvin. I like Cruz a lot, but imagine Cruz in the 8th inning throwing gas, then bringing in Villanueva to finesse em with his assortment of quality pitches in the 9th.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    Winn is not untouchable. He'll be 35 in June and is entering the last year on his contract. Manny may well be out of their price range, but this team just signed Randy Johnson for $8 million so it's not like they won't spend money. They would have to cut payroll to sign Manny, and nobody wants Dave Roberts so Winn is logical guy. They may not be pursuing Manny, but they want/need a power bat.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    "it's still been quite clear that the Brewers front office has been extremely busy" How can you tell? If they have been, they are sure quiet about it. "The Red Sox have only traded Coco Crisp" They agreed to terms with Brad Penny pending a physical too and were in the Texiera sweepstakes right down to the end and offered 2 players to the Marlins for H. Ramirez.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    Change for change sake isn't such a bad thing. Not making changes can lead to complacency. But this team needs changes because of a number of significant issues both offensively (low OBP, high K rates, inability to hit with men in SP, shortage of lefty bats), and in pitching (lack of experience at top of rotatation, no depth in rotation, lack of depth and quality in the bullpen).
  11. JohnBriggs12
    Miles OPS+ in 2008: 99. Counsell's was 76 and that was an improvement over the 65 and 69 in his other two seasons as a Brewer.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    Yeah, he's just like Counsell only he's younger and can hit. Oh and they got him for less than the Brewers paid Counsell. They also are on the verge of trading DeRosa for young pitching from Cleveland. Both the DeRosa and Marquis moves opened up salary to pay Bradley. Hendry is not sitting on his hands after a 97 win season. Meanwhile Melvin can't move Cameron, won't move Hart or Weeks, and hasn't sniffed either any decent FA pitcher, starter or reliever, or a decent FA bat. Maybe he will, but so far all we have is Trot Nixon.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    Cubs continue to make moves, holiday week or no. As for Brewers, all we're hearing is the sound of crickets.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    If Melvin was seriously considering 45 year old Randy Johnson (who signed for 1 year at $8 million), and 46 year old Jamie Moyer (who got 2 years $13 million), he should have no problem with Lowe who will be 36-38 over the life of a 3 year deal. As for his hand being tied, didn't he offer CC $100 million? $12 million for Lowe is reasonable as is a 3 year deal.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    "I'm just not sure the Giants would trade Sanchez for Hart. They have Lewis, Winn and Schierholtz. Outfielder doesn't seem to be a pressing need for them". Not quite sure I agree with that at all trwi7. Benjie Molina led this team with 16 HR last year. Lewis has gap power but he's not a prototypical LF. Schierholtz has shown some power in the minors but has just 1 HR in 187 major league AB's. I'd say both those guys make great 4th outfielders. As for Winn, well he's 35 and entering the last year of his contract. They're likely to be looking to move him at the deadline if they aren't in contention.
  16. JohnBriggs12
    I didn't argure that Grienke wasn't the more accomplished pitcher. You could have saved your research. It's about trade value and managing payroll. Grienke is going to get a real big salary bump this year and for the Royals to move him is going to take an overwhelming offer. Sanchez isn't arby eligible for another year. He's the same age as Parra and about as equally accomplished. This thread is about Dunn, and to get Dunn is going to take some real money even in this somewhat depressed market. Hart for Sanchez is pretty equal value. Hart for Grienke won't get it done. Hardy is one of 3 core Brewers that has actually produced at a consistent high level over 2 straight seasons. Trading him for any pitcher until they are certain Escobar is ready is very risky.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    Forget Grienke. A much more logical guy to target is Jonathon Sanchez. According to Chris Haft on the Giants website, Sabean is hinting he might listen to trade offers for Sanchez now that Randy Johnson is signed. They want a guy who will not be a FA after 2009, and Hart fills that bill for them wheras Xavier Nady, who they have been looking at, doesn't. While I haven't been all that high on Dunn because of his defense and K's, I have to say adambr2's lineup is certainly intriguing. Barring injury, you'd have to figure 170 HR from just 5 guys. Get 60 total out of Hall, Weeks, Lamb, and the bench, and now you're a 230 HR team. That might not win but it would be fun to watch and will keep people in the seats. I also kind of like the "pitcher shook up" effect facing Dunn, Braun, and Fielder would have. I would suspect Hardy would really benefit.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    I actually disagree 100%. The Yankees draw huge television ratings. So do the Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers etc. Television ratings for the World Series are much better with the Yankees v Cubs instead of Brewers v Rays. Because of the Yankee's drunken spending, teams like the Brewers are able to get additional draft picks and revenue sharing. In addition, I enjoy the underdog role versus the evil empires that only happens in baseball. (Toppling dynasties is more exciting than parity, in my opinion) In 1990 before the Yankees emerged as the dominant spender, the Reds and A's (two small markets) averaged a 21 rating and 35 million viewers for a 4 game Reds sweep. The last time the Yankees were in the series they averaged around a 13 rating and 20 million viewers. The fact is that ratings for baseball nationally are horrible in part because fans are smart enough to know the game isn't played on a level playing field. It's basically fixed in a sense. Sure the big market teams draw better overall numbers because there are more people living in those markets. But people in Kansas City and Pittsburgh couldn't care less what the Yankees and Red Sox are doing. Revenue has increased in baseball over the last 5 years because teams besides the Yankees and Red Sox have been competitive. Sooner or later, you have to have competition among more than a handfull of teams to make championships even meaningful. As far as parity hurting a sport, parity hasn't hurt the NFL which clobbers MLB in ratings.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    "You'd have a hard time convincing people that baseball has a competitive balance problem" No you wouldn't. Forget the champion though that usually turns out to be a top 10 payroll team. Look at the teams in the playoffs over the past decade. Oh sure, the occasional small market team gets in there, but it's dominated by the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, White Sox, Braves etc, all who have been there multiple times and all who are considered major market teams. The Rays got in there for one reason. They were so bad for so long, they finally got enough top picks to put it together for one season. And yes the Twins have been very competitive but they play in a division where the biggest markets, are not in the top 5.
  20. JohnBriggs12
    "Cruz has impact potential." Looper does not. I'd rather use my resources (including a draft pick here and there if needed) on guys with impact. The fact that teams are reluctant to part with a draft pick will keep the bidding down on a guy like Cruz.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    The argument that it adds depth to the rotation only holds water if Looper is better than one of the starters not including Suppan who gets a rotation spot by default because of his pricetag. If you sign Looper to a multiyear deal, you are committed to him as a starter. That would take 2 of your rotation spots that you have no flexibilty to alter because of the money invested. If you're arguing that McClung is replacement level (and he wasn't in 2008), then that is a different argument. You also have to believe that 34 year old Looper will be above replacement level over the course of his contract, and frankly that's a gamble they shouldn't take. Even if the best case scenario that Looper adds 2 wins this year, that doesn't make this team a contender in 2009 because this team has many other issues. They are better off either keeping that money for future use, using it on a bullpen arm or an impact bat. By the way, McClung had better control and a lower WHIP as a starter than he did as a reliever. The difference in OPS, was entirely based on slugging because he allowed a higher HR rate as a starter. Nevertheless, slugging perctange against was still under .400 which is still quite good.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    A minor league deal would be fine ala Capuano's. A major league deal would make no sense. He may need more than a rehab stint in the minors and you don't need him taking up roster space.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    With their rotation, defense isn't that big an issue. CC, Burnett, and Chamberlain are not exactly "pitch to contact" pitchers. Maybe Wang will be affected but that's about it.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    Cruz has impact numbers. 159 K's in 112 2/3 innings over the past 2 seasons with just 79 hits allowed. That's impact. Walk totals are bit high, but this guy has stuff that is Marmol like.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    Melvin is quoted in Buster Olney's blog as saying "I had interest in Juan Cruz...because I thought we had extra first-round picks for CC and Sheets, I had considered a type A signing. Now I have to reconsider." I love the idea of signing Cruz who sure has closer stuff, but Melvin has a great point. Now I suppose on how much of a value he considers Cruz to be. You don't want to overpay with both dollars and draft picks. If the dollars are reasonable, you could justify it though. Cruz at least makes you consider Villanueva as a potential starter again, negating the need to overpay for a guy like Looper.
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