danzig6767

What does that mean, exactly? A run saved on defense is worth more than a run scored on offense? If it's the 6th run scored vs. the 4th run saved, sure. But a run is a run, otherwise. I understand your premise, but a bad rotation also can really tax a bullpen and thus make an overall pitching staff even worse. Besides the wear on a bullpen of having to pick up so many innings when a rotation is bad, it also forces a manager to use his weaker bullpen pitchers more often. When starters are leaving the game to early to often, the manager has to use the middle relievers/long reliever more often in an effort to eat up innings and not burn out their end of the pen guys who usually are better.

You're right that it isn't a huge difference but it is a difference, so why give up the extra baserunners. Just using some hypothetical numbers, lets say you have 700 plate appearances for the #2 hitter during the season and your options are Gomez and his .300/.360 line with excellent base running and a theoretical .350/400 hitter with average base running. The theoretical guy is going to get on base 35 times more during the season. With a 35% "scoring rate" he'd score 12 more runs over the course of the season. Gomez baserunning skills might get him an extra couple runs but I would argue that those runs would be cancelled out by the added runs that Weeks scores due to the improved slugging percentage. So overall, 12 runs isn't overly significant but why give them up when you don't have to? While i'm definitely not in the camp of wanting to keep Gomez in the 2 spot once Hart gets back, i've been borderline shocked at the much higher quality approach Gomez has shown at the plate over the last 5-6 games or so. He's actually been working the count on a regular basis, laying off garbage offspeed pitches off the plate, and getting into 2-1/3-1 type of counts. I'm certainly skeptical that Gomez can continue approaching most of his at bats this way, but i never thought i'd see the day where Carlos could go about 5 straight games without really any of his patented ugly at bats .

I don't see anyone that is defending him calling his defense good (or if there is, it is a very small amount). The people that are defending him know he is not good defensively, but are responding to the people who are exaggerating how bad he is and being unreasonable about it. The level at which people were getting on Hardy does not even come close to what people are saying about Betancourt. In watching him, Yuni has made a few plays going to his right where i remember thinking wow, i never thought he'd have been capable of getting to that ball off the bat given how slow of foot he often looks and he does have a solid to good arm. It's going to his left up the middle where multiple balls have not only got past him where i think a quality SS at least gets a glove on the ball, Yuni didn't even get close to the ball on a few. A couple weren't even hit that hard and i remember thinking wow, how did he not at least prevent the ball from getting into the outfield? Each were balls hit to the left of him. Part of the problem seems to be not just that he's slow of foot, he also doesn't seem very flexible. When say a grounder is hit up the middle on a tough play for the shortstop, that guy not only has to have the agility to get to where the baseball is, that guy also has to be able to in one motion get his body stretched down to the ball as he's moving. This doesn't look to be something that Betancourt is capable of doing at a level that the more smooth and agile shortstops can do with ease. It seems that Betancourt knows that limitation about himself because on those plays up the middle i mentioned, he looked to have just given up of trying to make a play on the ball as it not overly quickly rolled into centerfield. I forget what game it was, but one of his giving up on the ball really irritated me most because it allowed a runner to score from second when it sure looked like at worst if he had dove for it, the ball would have stayed in the infield and no run scores.

I think if he does continue to work himself into good counts, and that's a monumental if still obviously, but if he does, I see no reason he wouldn't develop 20-25 HR power. I wouldn't bet on the new approach carrying, but at 6'4 215, he's got the raw power. He just doesn't have the selection. Size and good pitch selection doesn't necessarily equal power. Much of the power a batter generates comes from their swing. It's why at about 6'1 210 Ryan Braun has always had incredible power even when he wasn't exactly that selective at the plate, but numerous players his size or bigger with equal or better plate discipline can't hit for the power Ryan does. Sure, here and there Gomez will not only hit a homer, he'll absolutely crush the ball and he is a strong guy physically, but i just don't see him becoming a power hitter with better pitch selection. Guys who hit 20 plus homers a year don't just hit grooved pitches out. He has only 19 home runs in 1384 career at bats, that's not just because he's has abysmal plate discipline. If Carlos improved his plate discipline fairly significantly, i could see him hitting maybe 12-15 home runs, but i see 20 as very unlikely and 25 as extremely unlikely regardless if he had a near miraculously good change in pitch selection.

I agree. You've noticed an entirely different approach from him as of late though. Taking pitches, not swinging at hittable breaking balls early in counts. Just having a much more relaxed approach, and obviously the sampling is tiny, but if he can keep doing that, and a fundamental change in his approach is more telling than the results(which have also been encouraging). He'll hit for some power if he can somehow continue approaching his AB's that way. Of course I'm not convinced, but....hey, I'm more optimistic than I have been until now.. I don't think Gomez will ever hit for a significant amount of power regardless of his approach at the plate, but i also have noticed him of late actually being fairly selective at the plate. This in turn has lead to more 2-1/3-1 type of counts instead of 0-1/1-2 type of counts, which is a refreshing change. It remains to be seen if this change in approach is temporary and soon he'll revert back to consistently hacking at garbage early in the count, but for the first time since Carlos has been a Brewer, i at least have a tiny sliver of hope that he isn't a complete lost cause at the plate.

I doubt it. There's really no place for him once Saito and Parra come back. We'll have a full pen of Ax, Loe, Saito, Hawkins, Mitre, Braddock/Stetter, and Parra.Once Parra and Saito return, i'd rather have a righthander like Kintzler or McClendon who can pitch a full inning over Stetter who often can't be trusted to face anyone except lefthanded hitters.

Is Mitre hurt?

If Hart could manage to handle playing infield again, his height and length at firstbase would be a refreshing change from Prince. What i do wonder though is what kind of ability Gamel has at playing in the outfield? He'd have to have a much better arm than Hart, but i don't know if Gamel has more Braun like generally terrible ability to read balls of the bat and then end up taking poor angles/going back poorly on fly balls?

I wonder what happened with this guy? Of course Wood isn't the first big time prospect to not be able to perform in the big leagues, but for a guy to hit like he did in the minors and then only post a line of .168/.197/.259/.455 in the bigs is puzzling given just how horrific those numbers are, even if it's in only 494 at bats. The only 13 walks in those 494 at bats is very ugly, but so is the .168 batting average and .259 SLG.

I actually think Prince would leave some money on the table to stay, just not significant money and the amount the Brewers would be willing to pay in both years/overall money compared to a few other teams would likely be pretty significant. If say hypothetically Milwaukee offered 6yr/120 million and the best offer Prince got elsewhere was 6yr/130-135 million, my gut says Prince would stay here. More likely though even if the Brewers were still willing to make a sizable offer, it would be something in the range of the last offer of 5yr/100 million, while odds are Prince will get 6 or 7 years from another team in the 140 million or more range.

Yea, even if he didn't get an out, no way that slow roller should have got out of the infield.

I would agree that if this is done, the three games series between wild card teams should either be played in the stadium of the team who finished with a better record or a 2-1 home/away format with no off day in between for travel. That would be troublesome though if the wildcard matchup involved a west coast team with an east cost team because of the three hour time zone difference.

True, but I'd want legit, proven power. There's no guarantee that Katin would succeed in the majors. I'd rather have Branyan or Stairs personally. Guys who have proven they can hit for power off the bench.Well they are on other teams. I have no idea how Katin would end up performing if called up for a bench role, but a bench like this looks to at least have more potential and flexibility even though it won't happen. Dump Almonte and Kotsay. Call up Katin and Boggs. Counsell/Morgan/Katin/Boggs. Both Counsell and Morgan hit lefthanded. Boggs is a switch hitter and Katin bats righthanded. Much more flexibility pinch hitting wise instead of being so lefthanded. Katin could end up performing poorly in an almost entirely pinch hitting role, but he at least offers the ability of power off the bench late in games which Kotsay lacks and we still would have other lefthanded bats on the bench between Morgan, Boggs, and Counsell to cover for the lefthanded bat of Kotsay being gone.

I understand the premise you're trying to present and overall i like the extension to Braun, but i don't see one advantage being that he'll then be able to recruit free agents in the future. The main reason why being that the team really won't be able to afford to sign many or even any significant free agents. The Brewers if they are going to be able to be a pretty consistently solid to good team over the next 5-10 years, they'll largely accomplish that by drafting well and then locking up as many as possible of those players who perform well in the big leagues also, as we've seen with Braun, Gallardo, Weeks, and Hart. To be able to lock up those draftees who end up performing in the majors over multiple years, we'll also need to keep producing young kids that are really cheap for the first 3-4 years of service time. Mix in some some savvy trades and/or cheap steals like McGehee/Loe/Axford. Signing free agents of note likely won't happen often regardless if Braun tries recruiting because the money just won't be there. Braun's long term deal though could at least help persuade some guys going forward that are already on the Brewers to consider extensions because Ryan is assured of being here.

Let's pretend both pitchers would accept the extensions you proposed even though i'm quite leery of extending Marcum. The Brewers would then be on the hook for a combined 35 million during the fours years of Marcum/Greinke. Braun would be reaching his higher salaries. Hart is making 8 million per. Weeks will be making about 10 million per. Gallardo's expensive years in his extension will be kicking in. Unless Attanasio intends to be carrying payrolls over 100 million and/or our farm system provided quite a few quality options on the cheap, there wouldn't be much money left to fill out the rest of the roster if both Greinke and Marcum were extended to go along with the other guys making fairly significant to significant money. This is where Seid and the rest of the Brewers scouting department really need to replenish the farm system so that in in the fairly near future it can provide the big league club with the cheap and productive young players to offset the money being spent on locking up numerous core players.

I agree on being leery of extending Marcum. A 4yr/60 million dollar extension just scares me from both on a health and future production level. It is pretty amazing watching him get guys out so well while throwing fastballs 84-87 mph, but not enough to where i want to bank on him being able to do it for another five years even if he stays healthy. Greinke is the guy i want to Brewers to try and extend at some point. Obviously he'll be very expensive if he pitches well this season and the Brewers approach Zack in the offseason about an extension, but while i might be naive here in my thinking, my gut feeling is that Greinke won't be about chasing every last dollar when deciding on where he signs his next contract. Of course he'll expect to be paid well, but i get the feeling that fit will also be hugely important to Zack, more so than many other free agents where money is clearly the highest priority. Werth being an example. I just don't think Greinke would sign that type of deal to go somewhere simply to the highest bidder even though Washington has a ways to go before being good. If say he pitches well this year, the team does very well, he finds himself liking the city of Milwaukee, and he gets along well with his teammates, i just get the feeling that he'd then be open to an extension and accept a reasonable contract to where he becomes very wealthy, but doesn't ask for so much that the Brewers simply can't feel ok signing him.

You might not like the deferred money part, but Mark A I'm sure loves it and that is probably one of the main reasons this deal got done. Mark A is a finance guy and he knows all about the present value of money, ie a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Not only because of inflation but because of interest. So that is a huge factor in this calc. I am reading a lot of people discussing that it's a good deal from an inflation stand point, but I would assume the deferred money is even a bigger impact. No one knows for sure what the inflation rate is going to be, especially from a MLB contract stand point, but you can probably nail down an effective interest rate over a 10 year period or do variable analysis to let you know what the present value of the contract is. I think they even mentioned the guy in the PC who looked at the deferred money for the brewers. So this could be an even more team friendly deal than it is being presented as. But aside from all that, I think this is a good deal. Yeah, Braun could slip in the shower tomorrow, hurt his back and never play another game for the brewers and we'd be screwed. But on the other hand he is a superstar and superstars generally aren't knocking down the door to come play in Milwaukee. Heck we had to way overpay for Jeff Suppan to come pitch here. Would you rather give a long term deal to a Superstar or get stuck overpaying for mediocrity. I'd rather give the long term deal to the superstar and take my chances. Good post Barring a very serious injury, i just can't envision Braun declining at such a rapid rate in years say 34-35-36 that the deal in those years will be viewed as a major mistake. Maybe he declines to where he's a little overpaid in the last year or two of his deal, to where he's making an extra 5-7 million more per year than he should, but even then the team will have made off well in overall value of production received vs all money paid out over his time with the Brewers. Plus, it's also just as possible Braun isn't enough in that type of decline later in his contract to where he's overpaid at all when wage inflation is factored in. A few positives IMO with Braun 1. He's very goal orientated. Ryan doesn't at all seem like the type of guy that will get complacent now that he's set for life financially and doesn't have to produce to earn a new contract. He seems like the type of athlete with a very strong desire to be great, to stay great, make the Hall of Fame, and thus will be willing to keep putting in the work each offseason to stay on top of his game. 2. Braun doesn't have that Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, etc type of body and skillset which are more likely to decline sooner. Ryan is a great athlete and as a hitter, he isn't just a power guy. He has consistently hit for both average and power, i see no reason to believe that will change. While he certainly isn't a good outfielder right now, if in his mid-30's he has to move to say firstbase, he won't have a Prince type of build to where he can barely move and needs to be a DH instead. 3. Some don't believe in the sentimental aspect to sports, just the bottom line results. If though Braun continues on his path to the HOF, i think there is value to the Brewers franchise to keep a player for his whole career if indeed Ryan does end up being in the HOF, even if that means we overpay him a bit at the end of his deal. If say Braun becomes the next Robin Yount of the Brewers, i think that has importance beyond just money and we don't as fans have to watch him play his last five years in another uniform as we did with Molitor.

Well, the reason he signed that is because of how the union has negotiated it's contracts. That players are under team control for 6 years and go through the arbitration process. He would've ended up making more money through 7 years than he would have otherwise, and maybe a bit less over 8. I will go on record that this exact same deal probably could've been done 2 years from now, instead of 4.5 years from him being a free agent. I can't help but think of Alphonso Soriano's deal with the Cubs... There certainly is risk in doing this, but if Ryan keeps performing at a high level, no way he'd have signed for this dollar amount if he was only two years from free agency.

I also prefer football, baseball, hockey, and college basketball to the NBA, but i do think the NBA playoffs at this time is generally top notch basketball given the pretty high influx of good players into the league over the last 5-10 years. The overall quality of play in the NBA in my opinion is better than it's been in awhile. That said, if someone just doesn't care for the NBA product in general, they won't tune in enough to see the high quality of play out there by watching the playoffs at least. FWIW, that's all of the NBA i watch besides the Bucks. Pretty much the same with pro hockey, except i have no local team to cheer for so i don't watch much NHL until the playoffs start. As for the Bucks, it should be no surprise that ratings were poor, as was attendance. The Bucks were not only a bad team, their offense was absolutely abysmal. It was usually brutal to watch, no entertainment value at all. Countless games of the Bucks losing by scores of like 91-84 or 86-79. Just ugly basketball. For example, the Bucks were a whopping 30-11 in games they scored at least 90 points and 5-36 when they scored less than 90 points. Of course all teams will have a noticeably better record under the same criteria, but it shows just how pathetic the offense was while at the same time the defense generally was good. Unless Hammond can pull multiple rabbits out of his hat after the atrocious offseason he had last year, the next Bucks season/team will likely be bad to mediocre, and far from very entertaining to watch.

While i like your lineups except i'd keep Weeks leading off regardless of who pitches, the problem i see is that Roenicke strikes me as the type unwilling to flip Hart and Morgan in the two hole based on if a LH/RH is on the mound. He'll likely believe that Hart needs to stay in the same part of the lineup each day, thus he'll bat Hart either 2nd or 6th everyday, hopefully 2nd. Now maybe he'll surprise us and bat Lucroy 2nd as DHonks proposed, but i don't see it, at least not initially. Hopefully Roenicke doesn't brainfart and just keep Gomez batting second, even after Hart comes back. I wouldn't be shocked to see that if Gomez had a hot 3-4 game stretch right before Hart was activated and that allowed Roenicke to keep thinking that Gomez has the chance to be fixed, especially if the offense scored a bunch of runs over those 3-4 games.. With so many righthanded starters in the league though, the thought of Weeks, Morgan, Braun, Fielder, McGehee, Hart, and Lucroy as the 1-7 part of the order could be pretty damn productive. Unfortunately, i just don't envision Roenicke being willing to set his lineup that way on a LH/RH starter basis.

Regardless of how Melvin does it once Hart gets back, we'll need to have at least one righthanded hitter on the bench and that guy shouldn't be either of Almonte or Nieves. We can't have a situation where if say Hart is brought up and Almonte sent down, then the only righthanded stick on the bench to pinch hit is Nieves because he literally is one of the worst if not the worst hitters in all of baseball. There are going to be a fair number of times late in close games where a good lefty pitcher is on the mound and we'll have to put a pinch hitter in the game. Plush, Kotsay, and Counsell are terrible vs lefthanders. Almonte looks overmatched vs major league pitching. Nieves has spent his whole career sucking regardless of what hand a pitcher throws with. Ideally i agree with you. Hart replaces Almonte on the roster and a righthanded backup infielder with some ability to hit replaces Nieves. Also ideally, Boggs replaces Kotsay, but that won't happen because Doug for whatever reason likes Kotsay. So unless Melvin can find a righthanded backup infielder, i'd prefer Hart replacing Almonte and Boggs replacing Nieves because we don't really need Kottaras as a pinch hitter given all the other lefties on the bench. Boggs would basically have little role except to pinch hit, but he's at least a switch hitter and he can't be worse than Almonte or Nieves.

Part of why his OBP is respectable is that three of his six walks have been intentional for some bizarre reason. In the extra innings win alone vs Philly, they intentionally walked him twice to face Lucroy. While i'd rather not have Kotsay on the roster, once Hart gets back and Morgan is healthy, he should go to a role of almost entirely just pinch hitting. That i'm reasonably ok with. With Hart being out though, the mostly Kotsay/Almonte platoon in RF has been really weak. Once Hart gets back, if Doug would DFA both Almonte/Neives and add Hart/Boggs, i'll like the overall makeup of the team better. Plus, we'll also be getting Morgan back soon. The bench will be to lefthanded dominated for my tastes, but overall the 25 man roster would be much nicer than the one we broke camp with. Then soon after that Greinke will be added. I'm so looking forward to a healthy roster.

Yea, Almonte looks really overmatched at the plate. Who knows if Boggs would have got a hit in that spot today, but i'd at least have had some sliver of hope vs Madson. Plus, once Hart comes back, if Almonte is sent down, we won't have a single righthanded bat on the bench to pinch hit, which is another reason to just DFA Almonte/Neives and add Hart/Boggs given that Boggs is a switch hitter.

Gomez will never become a 20 homer or more type of hitter. You can't will or teach the ability to consistently hit that many homers, especially with a guy who constantly swings at bad pitches and gets himself behind in the count so often. I strongly doubt that there is much hope for Gomez to improve significantly as a hitter. Baseball history has shown that except for pretty rare instances, guys with a terrible approach at the plate either stay that way their whole career or only improve at it slightly. He's so skilled defensively though at a premium position that it should allow Gomez to stay in the league at the very least until his athletic ability lessens enough to remove his value defensively because he has to be more than just pretty good in CF to stay on big league rosters, be it starting or on the bench.

Wow, thanks for posting those. Escobar wasn't the defensive wizard last year with us as many were so waiting to see and his hitting was abysmal, but he has the near perfect type of lanky build for a shortstop, a great arm, and really good lateral agility. Those are the type of tools at least to be very good to special defensively. I do wonder what happened with his bat though? Yea, he's still quite young and like Betancourt Alcides never showed patience at the plate in the minors which is a bad sign for most players as they transition to the big leagues, but he was roughly a .300 hitter during his last three seasons in the minors.