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JoeHova

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Everything posted by JoeHova

  1. JoeHova
    Right now I have "Cruel To Be Kind" by Nick Lowe (the Jesus of Cool!) stuck in my mind.
  2. JoeHova
    They'll still have Lawrie, right? Isn't he on the senior Canadian team? Or maybe he's just on the junior team. OTOH, I don't even know if the Canadians qualified, so maybe it's moot anyway.
  3. JoeHova
    I'll just point out that Brad has the 34th best OPS in the PCL and 51st best in AAA overall. That's not in-depth analysis and the numbers aren't translated or anything, it's just pointing out that literally dozens of guys are doing better than him right now and most of them will never get a shot. The list includes guys like Jeff Bailey, Brad Eldred, Dan Johnson, Brian Buscher, Dallas McPherson, Nelson Cruz, Matthew Brown, Micah Hoffpauir, Joe Mather (who seems to be an almost perfect analogue to Nelson), Terry Tiffee, Jeremy Reed, Jayson Nix, Joe Koshansky, Andres Torres, John-Ford Griffin and Tagg Bozied. There are some prospects too, but the lists are littered with guys in their mid to late 20s who may have gotten a cup of coffee or two but will likely never be regulars. Nelson may be an exception, obviously I (and I'm sure Al and anybody else who doesn't have high hopes for Brad) hope he is and becomes a very valuable player. However, there just isn't much reason (in my opinion) to think he'll be able to do that. An average 1st baseman is an extremely high bar, it's about a 117 OPS+. The Brewers have 3 players who are above that this year- 1 came in 3rd in the MVP voting last year and the other 2 are all-stars this year. Russ Branyan is above that too so far but in limited action (and his AAA OPS was .250 points better than Nelson's).
  4. JoeHova
    I'll be sad to see any of those 3 leave, but putting LuCroy on the list is shortsighted (if true). Salome looks good and Lawrie is supposed to be a nice prospect, but the Brewers are only a couple years removed from starting Chad Moeller at catcher on most days. If I was Melvin, I would hoard my catchers until one of them showed he was a good major leaguer.
  5. JoeHova
    umm, 2nd half vs. first half would seem to be a pretty obvious explanation- i.e. running players into the ground in the first half and having them perform worse in the 2nd because they are gassed.
  6. JoeHova
    I'm more worried about the post-all star break swoon, so far (not including this year) in Ned's career, he has won 48.8% of his first half games, compared to 43.1% of his 2nd half games. That may or may not say something significant about Ned's tendencies, but it seems like a pretty big difference. Let's hope the 2nd half doesn't go true to form this year.
  7. JoeHova
    I do my own MLE calculations but they are similar to the ones on minor league splits. BP is way too optimistic on the OBP, no way will Nelson have an OBP 100 points higher than his average in MLB. My problem isn't with Nelson per se, it's with the idea that the Brewers, a team that thinks it is contending, would go into a season with a 26 year old guy with a career .787 minor league OPS as their starting 1st baseman. I can't see it happening, whether they deal Prince or not. Just for comparisons sake: Brad Nelson career AAA numbers: 328 games, 42 HRs, .267 BA, .354 OBP, .446 SLG, .800 OPS Nelson Cruz career AAA numbers: 294 games, 73 HRs, .314 BA, .405 OBP, .591 SLG, .996 OPS One of those guys has dominated AAA, the other hasn't. My point is that there are a lot of guys who are putting up much better numbers in AAA who also are not getting a shot, so why would the Brewers go with Brad Nelson at 1st over one of the other guys who has done much better? That's what I don't get. I don't see Brad Nelson ever being Milwaukee's starting 1st baseman unless it's on an emergency basis.
  8. JoeHova
    It's funny that Kendall's all-around defensive rep (not just throwing) before this season was sub-par at best.
  9. JoeHova
    I feel the need to point out that a .900 AAA OPS translates to a .740 or so ML OPS, which would make Brad a well-below average 1st baseman. Actually, that would only be average or above for a catcher or shortstop. That's what Bill Hall hit last year. There is no way that they trade Prince to make room for Brad Nelson. There is no way they go into a season with Brad Nelson as the starting 1st baseman unless Prince (or whoever) gets hurt the day before the opener. You can't put terrible players at first base and expect to compete (unless you have great hitters up the middle, which the Brewers don't), it's too big a piece of the offense for any team. I can see Brad as a serviceable bench bat (Wes Helms type), but I can just as easily see him never getting more than a cup of coffee. With that kind of player, it all depends on finding a team that likes you enough to give you regular playing time so that you acquire that proven-player sheen. If Brad come up for Seattle next season and goes 4-40, he may never get another shot, because there are plenty of guys like him (maybe a little older) laying around in AAA. Conversely, if he plays well for awhile when he first gets called up, maybe he can eke out a 10 year career of being the most hated player on various teams.
  10. JoeHova
    Under Under Under Under Under
  11. JoeHova
    Hi everybody- I have a couple old (that is to say, non-digital tuner) TVs that I don't use now, but that I will want to use at some point in the future, so I want to get some of those converter boxes so they will work. I applied for some of those coupons awhile ago, but I kind of forgot about it until now and now mine expire in like a week. Because I don't use the TV's now, I don't want to spend a lot, but I also don't want to get a piece of junk. I've been to a couple stores that have been sold out of them but I really don't want to have to hunt all over the city (Minneapolis, in my case) for them. Any help/advice anybody could give me would be much appreciated. I'd also be interested in hearing other people's experiences with various stores/models.
  12. JoeHova
    I don't know where you got those numbers but they are way, way off. Actually, I do know, you are looking at the chart by increase in %, not by rating, which is where you've gone wrong. The actual top 4 by rating are Red Sox, Cardinals, Twins, Brewers. The Rays are still in the bottom 10 in ratings. link: http://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=archive.table&tableId=SBJ200807070601-01
  13. JoeHova
    yeah weird, why would you do this? It's not the 1850's and we aren't in Victorian England. Your girlfriend should be able to decide on her own what she wants to do. I would skip it, but if you're going to do it, definitely tell them you are going to ask her to marry you, don't ask them if it's ok.
  14. JoeHova
    really? I know Cain is higher on the P50, but I'd rather have Bryson than him, especially considering the team needs. 12 Ks per 9 and 4.5 Ks per BB so far in Bryson's career, with those 2 numbers supposedly being the best indicator of future success.
  15. JoeHova
    no offense, but why would you think that? Nelson has never hit anything like LaPorta until this year (and even that is a stretch), and he is doing that in his 4th go-round at AAA. LaPorta is much, much more likely to be an acceptable or better ML 1st baseman than Nelson.
  16. JoeHova
    Obviously we don't know anything about playoff baseball, aren't we all Brewer fans?
  17. JoeHova
    I know it's happened, I just can't remember who or in what sport.
  18. JoeHova
    what does that have to do with anything?
  19. JoeHova
    Getting Cain for Weeks is closer to a best case scenario than a worst case scenario.
  20. JoeHova
    Sheets is being run into the ground this year (BP has him #1 in pitcher abuse points) and CC was run into the ground last year and will be again this year. I'm not sure signing either one would be smart for a team like Milwaukee where an unusable $15-20 million per year would cripple the franchise. If I'm Doug, I might see who else was available this offseason and sign a couple cheaper guys. Gallardo and Parra are young enough to improve so they might still have an ace or two.
  21. JoeHova
    No, I didn't miss the Franklin trade, Villanueva is one of my favorite players. However, Franklin was a scrub they just wanted to get rid of. And Capellan had played in the majors, albeit briefly. I stand by my assertion that Doug doesn't like to trade established guys for lower level minor leaguers.
  22. JoeHova
    If the Brewers were 10+ games back and traded Sheets for LaPorta, Green, and Lucroy, I would have been quite pleased. Of course, Doug would never do that, as he hasn't made a trade of an established player for prospects while he's been in Milwaukee. It'd be more likely that he'd get a bunch of average guys with a couple years of service left and maybe a low-level prospect thrown in.
  23. JoeHova
    WTH? Arrggh, Doug needs to value prospects more.
  24. JoeHova
    The thing about making a trade for the playoffs is that anything can happen in the playoffs. Look at CC's playoff ERA, it is not pretty. That said, it's still exciting to get big fat CC and I'll try not to worry too much about giving up LaPorta+ for a rental.
  25. JoeHova
    Was Gary Hart the guy who swam laps for reporters to prove he was healthy and then died a few months later? I can't recall. Anyway, I'll definitely be voting some for Corey, although it can't really be argued that he deserves it, imo.
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