JoeHova

That is a pretty cool shirt. I feel really stupid for asking this, but who is Orem an affiliate of?

Tomo hasn't been too good lately, hopefully he can turn it around. It would be galling to lose to Shawn Estes.

Nashville wins, 11-5. They lead the best of 5 series 2-0, but now they head out on the road.

Point Root Beer is where it's at, though it won't get you drunk, obviously.

I just learned from the Mariner's broadcast that Garret Anderson worked at Home Depot during the 94 strike. That's cute.

well, Berman is doing the Braves/Phillies game tonight, so that's a bullet dodged. Brantley's with him, who is no prize himself, but that still leaves Sutcliffe unaccounted for. I have a bad feeling about this. Also, someone on page 1 appears to be implying that the Brewers often lose because Russ is in the lineup. You can't possibly be serious, can you?

Good to see that Saenz is coming along. I'm somewhat surprised to see them bothering with Stetter and Wolfe, but I guess it can't hurt. I'd have been interested to see how well Ryan Braun could do there, but i don't know if that would have been allowed or wise.

I see why too, after the way he dominated the Rainiers in Game 1.

I dunno, Sutcliffe and berman are even worse than the brewers guys. If either of them is involved, I'd advise staying far away from ESPN tonight.

A win tonight would be really nice. On a related note, Russ better be starting tonight. Russ likes low fastballs, alll Webb throws is low fastballs. Advantage= Russ.

Interesting stuff. What's really interesting is how close the PECOTAs for Prince, Hart, and N. Cruz match up with their MLEs. The PECOTAs undershot them all, but still, they were pretty close.

will Nelson Cruz be called up after the playoffs? He sure deserves to be. Rivera does too, but they'd have to dump someone from the 40 man (although, if Cruz came up, Magruder would never have to daarken the Brewers doorstep again...).

great win tonight for the Brewers. It was a fun game to watch.

no problem posting the MLEs guys, I thought they were quite interesting. I was waiting all year for them to come out. (I did my own too, but only for AAA players because that is the only level I had any translation info for. I wasn't sure I had done them right though, so I wanted to wait until someone more experienced put them out.) Also, I was surprised too that Baseball Prospectus didn't put out the Davenport translations this year. That was the main reason I used to go to that site. I recall that they had Prince having one of the 5-10 best seasons in the minors last year when his age vs. level was taken into account, he'd have to be even higher this year. I also agree that Braun was the real eye opener for me. He could be in the majors by the end of next year if he keep this up in AA (which is really where he should start, judging from the MLEs. No need to mess with A+ for him, imo.). One more thing- Ryan Braun's MLE is higher than Stephen Drew's.

well to expect a guy in AAA to come up and hit like pujols, he'd have to have about a 1.300 OPS in a neutral park. That's pretty rare, to say the least.

wow, the D'Backs lineup is terrible. However, is Russ ever going to get to play again? He could rake a guy like Vazquez.

Joe, did anyone ever say the phrase to you 'cant see the forest for the trees? hah, you're probably right. However, my point was that plenty of WS Champs have been less than .600 teams. In fact, 3 of the last 5 champs have won at a lower clip and the other 2 were barely over (and both of the .600 teams were wild cards).

Here is a very interesting article about the Sounds' star pitcher the last time they won a league title. The 1982 Brewers also feature prominently in the story. link: newyork.yankees.mlb.com/N...p&c_id=nyy A Dream Unfulfilled Stefan Wever looks back at brief Major League career By Doug Miller / MLB.com SAN FRANCISCO -- Stefan Wever has always been a dreamer, and he doesn't apologize for his latest recurring reverie. "It's usually the same dream, and the latest has been pretty vivid," says Wever, whose huge, athletic frame dominates the space behind the bar at the Horseshoe Tavern in San Francisco's Marina district. "I'm on a field, but it's more like a cow pasture. Don Mattingly's there, Buck Showalter's there, all of my old teammates are there. And I'm there, trying to make it back to the big leagues. But I never quite get on the field." Wever made it to that field once but didn't stay long. It was Sept. 17, 1982, and Wever was a 24-year-old New York Yankees callup fresh from Double-A. The top prospect, all 6-foot-8 and 240 pounds of him, started a game against the Milwaukee Brewers, pitched into the third inning, tore his rotator cuff and never played in the Majors again. Twenty-three years later, he's 47 and owns the Horseshoe and another popular San Francisco haunt, the Grant and Green. He has success -- financial freedom and a loving family. Still, one can detect a tinge of sadness in his eyes when he tells the story of his brief baseball career. "I have no bitterness," Wever says. "I look back on it with mostly happiness. They say things happen for a reason, so I've learned to live with it that way." What Wever didn't expect to happen was for everything to end so suddenly. Not wanting to make a commotion, the rookie kept quiet about the injury, which he considered minor. He tried to rehab his shoulder and pitch through it in Spring Training of 1983 while the club used what Wever called a "conservative approach." Wever didn't find out it was a torn rotator cuff for two years and a year later he was out of the game. But he made sure he had fun while he was in it. *** A day after Wever had locked up the Double-A championship for Nashville to cap off an 18-win season, he was called into the office of skipper Johnny Oates, where his pitching coach, Hoyt Wilhelm, awaited. A call to Triple-A Columbus seemed logical based on his talent. "He was tall and he threw hard," says Mattingly, Wever's rookie ball teammate. "He was definitely a hot prospect for us." Hot enough that the shuttle to Ohio wasn't mentioned in the conversation. "I was going to go home to San Francisco," Wever says, "but they told me there would be nobody waiting at the airport for me. They said, 'You're going to New York.'" Wever says he was overjoyed when his taxi pulled up to the House That Ruth Built and stunned when the fans outside the players' entrance shouted his name and spouted off his Nashville numbers. Then he walked into the clubhouse. "I figured, I'm some kid from Double-A, so I'd get some locker in the corner with No. 84 or something," he says. "But my locker was in the middle of the room and I had No. 25 -- Tommy John's old number. "I looked up and the locker on my right was Dave Winfield. The locker on my left was Goose Gossage. What more can you ask for?" How about this: After flying first class on the team charter to Baltimore, Wever lucked into a suite vacated by veteran catcher Barry Foote, who had left the team for personal reasons. Wever, who should have been sharing a double, got a pad with a view of the Inner Harbor, a wet bar and a gold-plated telephone by the toilet. "It was awesome," Wever says. "And word got out, you know, 'Hey, the rook's got the suite.'" Wever ended up hosting a poker game and the Yankees partied until 6 a.m. "I was like, 'Wow, I like it up here,'" Wever says. "I know it had noting to do with me, but it was a great initiation." The next day, the initiation continued when legend Ron Guidry came up to Wever and said, "Welcome to the New York Yankees." Six-foot-six All-Star outfielder Winfield took Wever aside and filled him in on the "high-end tall men's clothing stores in the big cities." Big-league life was as good as advertised, and Wever hadn't even thrown one pitch. *** His chance came on his sixth day in the Majors in Milwaukee. It had rained during the day and Wever stepped onto a muddy mound at old County Stadium, home of world-famous bratwursts and "Harvey's Wallbangers," the Harvey Kuenn-managed team of sluggers on its march to the World Series. "I don't know if anyone making their Major League debut has faced two Hall of Famers to start their career, but I did," Wever says, before recanting the blur of baseball that followed. "Paul Molitor hit a five- or six-hopper through the right side for a single," Wever says. "Robin Yount hit a legit double and Molitor scored. "The next batter was Cecil Cooper, and I threw him a really good changeup. He took a big swing and our center fielder, Jerry Mumphrey, must have thought the ball was going to the wall. He broke back and the ball bounced in front of him, then past him. That should have been the first out." Ted Simmons followed with a ground ball through shortstop Andre Robertson's legs -- "That should have been the second out" -- and the Wallbangers were in business. Gorman Thomas was next, the at-bat that would very quietly change Wever's life. It didn't start quietly, though. "He hit one a mile," Wever says of the three-run homer for the Brewers' long-ball leader. At some point in the at-bat, Wever says he felt a "twinge" in his shoulder. He didn't tell anyone. "There's no way I was coming out of that game," Wever says. "I'm not going to say, 'Hey, take me out of my Major League debut' because I had a little twinge in my arm. I needed to show them that I was tough." He kept pitching and the Brewers kept hitting. Look up Wever's statistics and you'll see the ugly numbers. Record: 0-1. One game, 2 2/3 innings, six hits, nine runs (eight earned), three walks, two strikeouts, one home run, three wild pitches. The Yankees lost, 14-0. "It just wasn't a good game for us," Wever says. "I had no idea it was my last game." *** "He was good. He was the real deal," says Showalter, now the manager of the Texas Rangers but Wever's Double-A teammate and running mate on the road in the early 1980s. "He had a hard sinker and slider. He was very personable and everybody liked Stef. He was funny and really fun to be around. Intelligent. "You wish all the medical help and technology was available then. Back then, a rotator cuff? You're done. He thinks about it. So do I. You never stop thinking about making it to the big leagues." Wever didn't pitch again in 1982 and felt pain the first time he picked up a baseball over the winter. The Yankees told him to take it easy and he did, but when he arrived at Spring Training in 1983, new Yankees manager Billy Martin pumped him up by saying, "Stef, you're gonna be my No. 5 starter." "He liked me," Wever says. "He liked big, strong guys with power arms." Martin didn't know that there was a serious problem, though. Wever's arm didn't have much power anymore. He was struggling to reach 86 or 87 on the radar gun and his trademark diving movement had flattened out. Wever, not knowing any better, persevered. "I was determined to tough it out and not let this reputation of an injury-plagued guy follow me," he says. In July 1984, after months of stopping and starting again, Wever became frustrated. "I said, 'This is ridiculous,'" Wever says. "I used to throw 95, now I throw 85. I'd like to go see an expert." He saw noted specialist Dr. James Andrews, who took his arm and, "in two minutes," figured out what Wever needed to know: His rotator cuff was fully torn, there was torn cartilage and Wever needed surgery immediately. Wever missed the rest of that season but rehabbed aggressively on his own all winter, lifting weights six hours a day and throwing against a brick wall at a school near his home. It didn't matter. He didn't have it anymore and he knew it. While attempting a comeback in Triple-A camp the next year, Wever walked up to Foote, who had become the Columbus manager. "I just said, 'I can't do this anymore,'" Wever says. "It was so tough. I had been so certain that I was a big-league pitcher. I thought in very grandiose terms. I was the best prospect in baseball. I thought I would be a Hall of Famer and a Yankee savior. And then it just ended." *** Wever tearfully broke the news to his mother and came home. He wandered around San Francisco for what he calls "aimless months" in search of an identity that for the first time in his life didn't include the word "baseball." "I was drinking a lot and staying out late," Wever says. "I don't regret anything in my baseball career, but I regret the year or two years after I got out. "I was educated. I had an English degree [from Cal-Berkeley]. I should have kept my contacts and gotten into the game -- you know, front office, coaching, broadcasting. But I didn't." Wever got into the bar business and it snowballed into a solid career. Still, there's always that day in Milwaukee to look back on. "It simmered under the surface for a while, that feeling that you've lost your dream," Wever says. "Baseball was in the marrow of my bones. It's what I was the best at. "What if Pavarotti, on his first night as a tenor, ruined his vocal chords? That's how I look at it. It might be egotistical, but that's how I have to look at it. "I keep myself going by knowing that I was the best there was and that if I was healthy, I would have had a great career." *** Walk into the Horseshoe and odds are you'll see Wever. He's hard to miss. He still has that boys-of-summer grin and he usually holds and twirls a baseball. "It just feels good," he says. He says he's never had a "woe is me" sentiment and that in some ways his life might have worked out better the way it happened. "My thinking is that if I made it, maybe I would have turned into a big jerk and an alcoholic," he says. "Maybe I didn't make it because that's not who I am." So who is he, really? Is he a man who's managed to move on from his dashed dream? "I'm not really sure I have yet, to tell you the truth," he says quietly. "Maybe I'll always be searching for an answer." Doug Miller is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

.600 baseball is the peak Hoffy. That's a 97 win pace, that's about as good as it gets and you will usually make the playoffs with that many wins. If the Brewers can play .600 baseball for a few years, they'll have a great chance to win a world series. (for perspective, the Brewers have never played .600 baseball over the course of a season, the Milwaukee Braves did it once (1957), and the original Milwaukee Brewers never did it. So, in over 50 years of MLB in Milwaukee, we have had one team play .600 ball.)

yes. The way it works is similar to park effects. Think of AAA being like an even more extreme Coors Field, AA being like High Desert but with 280 foot fences, A+ being a park with 200 foot fences and where you are only allowed to use 3 infielders, etc. You would have to adjust all the raw numbers way downward in those cases because an MLB player would really dominate in those environments. That's why an .800 OPS in AA is not impressive in itself. It's important to look at the context in which statistics are produced because not every context is equal. What MLE's do is strip out all the noise of park and league effects.

hmm, those are better odds than I would have given. Interesting stuff. I assume you computed that by looking at the various team's home and away records? Or did you use home and away run differential? Or what? I'm curious because it looks to me like we can project: @AZ 2-1 @HOU 1-2 CHI 2-1 STL 1-2 CIN 2-2 @PIT 2-1 which would be the required 10-9. I'm starting to be greedy and hope for 11-8 with an extra win being picked up either against STL (because they might be resting guys) or CIN (because they are bad), but it could just as easily go poorly.

It doesn't matter if you agree with it or not, statistically it's true. no, it's not saying that. Miller has a track record, Braun has half of one season. That's why MLE's aren't projections. It will take a few years before we can become more confident that Braun didn't have a fluke year. Prince has a track record of domination in the minors, we can be fairly confident that he will be at least a good major league player, something that the MLEs backup. Braun has no track record, but is off to an excellent start. So, recap: MLEs=major league stats long track record>short track record Damian Miller had an 8 year track record of being a .750 OPS guy in the majors. If Braun was the same age as Damian and had an 8 year track record of being a .750 MLE guy while he was in the minors, we could say with roughly the same confidence that they would both put up an OPS around .750 in the majors. That's how it works.

no, these would both translate to being bad major leaguers. An OPS of .855 in AA will translate to an OPS of well below .700 in the majors. An OPS of .864 in AAA (ignoring park factors because I don't know where he played) translates to an OPS of .705 in the majors. Hughes' career MLB OPS was .680. If anything, Hughes is good evidence that MLEs are pretty accurate. well, I prefer to look at it as them being just as reliable, but the reverse is also true.

(Alcides) has a super high ceiling. He is a long way off but he is someone to watch IMO. Yes, he is someone to watch, I agree. That's why I posted his MLE. At the same time, he's probably 4-5 years away at least, which is all I said. I wasn't trying to insult him at all.

no, in the same way that what Billy Hall or JJ Hardy did this year is not a projection. It can be used as part of a projection, but it is not a projection, just a record of what they did.