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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Posey wasn't blocking the plate, he couldn't move farther off the plate than he was because of how far out of the baseline the runner can go while sliding, if he were any farther off the plate he could never tag the runner out. Something probably should be changed at some point.
  2. Ennder
    I said it early but I can't stress it enough, the first step is to limit how far out of the baseline the runner can slide. Right now if the catcher gives the runner the plate the runner can slide so far out of the baseline that the C really struggles to be able to apply a tag, if they limit where the runner can slide it makes it so the catcher doesn't have to block the plate.
  3. Ennder
    The fault is almost universally in where the catchers sit and not what the baserunner does.
  4. Ennder
    If they enforced the out of the baseline rule at home plate so players couldn't go around the tag so easily then catchers could probably sit in front of the plate instead of on it and avoid most of these hits. I'm certainly not for keeping it the way it is because "that is how the game is supposed to be played", that is just a way of saying you have no argument for your opinion.
  5. Ennder
    If they swap around the lineup every time someone has a little slump there will never be any continuity to it. There is no reason to be in a rush to lower McGehee in the order.
  6. Ennder
    "Andrew Baggarly spoke with a team official afterward. The official didn’t reveal the results, but he said “not good.” Baggarly asked if the leg was broken. The response: “Not good.” Sounds like it might be a season ending type of thing.
  7. Ennder
    While I would be very happy with option 1 and I think it would reflect the true talent of this team pretty well, I don't think that pace is enough to make the playoffs so I'd have to go with option 2. One of the NL Central teams will play above their talent level and that is the one who goes to the playoffs, so far it has been the Cardinals so we have an uphill battle.
  8. Ennder
    I would argue that it isn't actually luck, it is variance. When you get enough of a sample you finally get to see the skill without the variance getting in the way. Of course these samples are pretty huge. People always fail to recognize that even half a season isn't really a very large sample when you are talking about how good a player is, heck a full season isn't really a very good sample, that is why people use the 3 year averages etc so much. I have a friend who plays poker for a living, he has made hundreds of thousands of dollars with it now so is obviously a skilled player. He still sometimes goes months at a time where he loses money over huge samples of hands. Baseball is no different, so much of what happens is out of the individuals hands it takes a long time to get a really good idea how good someone is.
  9. Ennder
    This is definitely true. That is why i keep adding on average or for an entire season to everything. If you are using say Kotsay to only pinch hit with runners in scoring position so he is getting a lot of chances to advance runners even on outs etc then the lack of Ks means a lot more. If Gomez is on they mean more than if Fielder is on as well etc. But when you are looking at a full seasons of data you can't really look at the micro level. Over a full season of AB the fact Betancourt strikes out a lot less than another SS isn't going to mean much because the number of times where it actually does mean something is so much smaller than the overall chances.
  10. Ennder
    TheCrew, you are completely missing the point of his post with your reply. A ball in play is better than a strike out, nobody is going to disagree with you. But when you are looking at the results a ball in play that results in an out is not significantly better than a strike out over a full season. In a very small subset of situations it is more valuable but those situations comprise such a small portion of a full year of ABs that in the end there is barely a difference. Between the times you come up with 2 outs or nobody on and the times you come up with a runner on 1st (where a K is more valuable than a ball in play out) you end up not gaining a lot of value from not striking out. It has nothing at all to do with wOBA and it has nothing at all to do with stats vs fundamentals, the stats include the fundamentals already. So yes a player who never strikes out is great because he is putting the ball in play and getting results from it, but if his results aren't better than a guy who strikes out a ton then he still isn't a better player.
  11. Ennder
    He's on pace to be around a 2 WAR player, that seems like a reasonable projection. There is no reason to think this is anything more than a little cold streak, he'll most likely have a hot streak at some point as well.
  12. Ennder
    The DH is also an advantage because it keeps the AL pitchers healthier. Every year a dozen or more pitchers in the NL get hurt while hitting or running the bases and over time it really weakens the NL pitching league wide. The hardest thing to do in all of sports is hit a baseball, the most lopsided matchup in any sport is watching a pitcher pretend they can hit(a kicker tackling is probably the second most). They simply do not get enough AB to expect them to be able to hit at the major league level and there really is no reason to not have the DH in the NL. I can't see owners ever getting rid of the DH so it will be in the NL in the future at some point, just a matter of when. I'm guessing it will take another 20 years or so, once the people in charge of things all remember the DH being a part of baseball and aren't as traditionalist.
  13. Ennder
    Yeah but on average putting a ball in play for an out with a runner on 1st base is worse than just striking out. So when you combine a runner on 1st, bases empty and ABs with 2 outs you end up with a large majority of ABs not favoring other outs. The actual linear weights for K and other outs are very close overall. As for Dunn the fact he strikes out a lot is already factored in his slash stats, it more or less directly lowers his AVG which lowers his OBP and his SLG. The strike outs don't count double here. If you compare Dunn to another player with the exact same slash stats his extra strike outs end up costing his value very little, likely the in order of just 1 or 2 runs over a full season.
  14. Ennder
    I think that is -2.8 runs which is -.28 WAR. McGehee would have cost us 4 runs on the basepaths this year which seems plausible, he certainly hasn't cost us 4 wins.
  15. Ennder
    But keep in mind it is very slightly. It takes something like 100 strikeouts to cost your team 1 run on average. A ball in play is much more valuable than a strike out, that is why strike outs in general are bad for hitters and good for pitchers. A strike out itself isn't really much less valuable than any other out though. So if you are looking just at results the strike outs aren't going to change the value of players very much. A .800 OPS guy with 200 K isn't going to be less valuable than a .750 OPS guy with 0 Ks. However if a 200 K guy could reduce his strike outs while keeping everything else the same he would become more valuable because he'd put more balls in play and some of them would be good results and not just outs.
  16. Ennder
    I have always felt that Hart tends to wear down when he plays full time and I think giving him an extra day off here and there isn't the worst idea in the world. He certainly shouldn't be sitting a game every week or anything though, a game every other week is probably about right.
  17. Ennder
    I'll never understand how people are so quick to assume every player on the team is going to suck if they get off to a slow start. His BB% is actually up this year, his K% hasn't changed, his ISO is down a little but it takes all of one or two good games to change that at this point. If McGehee goes out and has a 3/4 with 2 HR game tomorrow he'll be right where we would expect him from the past two seasons, not like he is putting up shockingly bad numbers or something. Same thing with the Gallardo comment earlier in the thread, why would you think Gallardo is suddenly a 4.50 ERA pitcher after he has shown otherwise for multiple seasons. Baseball is a streaky games, every player is going to have rough patches and most are going to have goofy looking samples that last for a month+ at some point in it.
  18. Ennder
    I am not banging a Punto drum, I'm pretty sure I said that Punto is more of a utility infielder than a starter. But Punto is as good a hitter as Betancourt, he is more OBP and less SLG and the rest of their skillset is pretty close to each other. I don't really see any reason to think Betancourt is a better hitter at this point. They are both just really bad hitters. There is a difference between two guys with a wOBA range of like 10-15 points being discussed and ones who have much wider ranges though. No amount of hidden factors can turn someone like Betancourt into a good player. I guess I fail to see what you are really saying. When two players are really close in base skills like xFIP or wOBA you can certainly discuss which one is better but you have to always keep in mind the differences are going to be very very small. If there is a big gap in the basic skills you can't really make that up with the little things. My post was more a response to the statement that there was no way Ortiz was as good as Fielder or Braun last year, the differences between them are going to be pretty small. Ortiz had a good offensive year last year.
  19. Ennder
    Yeah it was, dunno why he is doing it. The ball is really carrying tonight, Betancourt barely hit that and it went to the track.
  20. Ennder
    Gallardo has a career 3.78 ERA now, that is pretty solidly a #2 in the NL. Most pitchers don't last much past 6 innings on the regular basis, especially when they are only 25 years old. That is one of those things that will improve with time.
  21. Ennder
    All I want for Christmas is the DH in the National League, lets stop pretending pitchers can hit and save the dozen or so pitchers hurt while hitting each year from their DL stints. I'd love to dump interleague as well. Obviously I won't get what I want~.
  22. Ennder
    I look at those two and instantly think the .500 hitter is way better, so I disagree that on the surface the HR guy is better. http://www.insidethebook....oes_17obpslg_make_sense/ There is one explanation of the difference in values but again I don't have an issue if someone disagrees with 1.7, my point was if someone thinks the relationship is 1:1 they are wrong and there isn't really any use arguing it. If you have qualms with how much more important OBP is that is one thing, but it is pretty clearly more valuable.
  23. Ennder
    Pick around the stats all you want but when a guy has been bad since 2006 it probably isn't because he was sick etc. His career was pretty much derailed by injuries and then he got old. The first thing that went when this happened was his ability to hit LHP, he used to hit them pretty well. Then his power went away, it was only really doubles power even in his prime but even that went away. He has also lost a lot of speed and athleticism. As for his defense, I don't think Branyan has played enough OF to really compare the two but neither should really be playing OF on a regular basis.
  24. Ennder
    Yes, because if I don't agree with your view point that Betancourt and Punto have equal value because they have similar wOBA's - then I must be misinterpreting something. Like I said, not worth my time anymore. No but an opinion with at least a little bit of evidence behind it would be nice for once. And not he is doing something over a one month sample type of evidence. Every discussion does need to start with a baseline though, if someone for example thinks SLG is exactly as important as OBP it isn't a matter of discussion because they are simply wrong. It can be subjective as to how much OBP is more important than SLG though. Oh it certainly matters but it isn't something quantifiable when you are trying to compare say David Ortiz to Prince Fielder to Ryan Braun and making an argument for or against one being a better hitter than the other. Every stat has its flaws and when stats are pretty close the flaws can move things around a little bit for sure. Braun's baserunning obviously brings a ton of value in that example. Those linear weights get used poorly all of the time when looking at specific situations(like when to bunt not accounting for how good a bunter the guy is or how fast the baserunner etc) but they are pretty good for judging broad strokes like you are doing with something like wOBA.
  25. Ennder
    Using as many stats as you want try to defend that Betancourt is actually a better hitter than Punto. The only way you can really say that is if you misinterpret how valuable getting on base is compared to getting extra base hits.
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