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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    His average fastball is now down to 85.8 MPH. His K/9 has fallen below 5 which makes it hard to be successful unless you are an extreme groundball guy. His BB/9 is at a career high and while people will say it was '1 bad start' it was actually a correction that was due on his ERA all year long. His xFIP and ERA almost match up exactly now, he has pitched like a 5+ ERA guy all season long and was just lucky until this point. Since the injury he has made Suppan look good and I can't see him making it to the all star break in the rotation unless something changes. I'm a Dave Bush fan but they need to start exploring different options soon because he just hasn't been the same since the injury last year.
  2. Ennder
    Based on what? He's had 1 bad start this season........ well, 2 now but the ump is beyond terrible. Depends on how you judge bad starts. He has had pretty ugly peripherals all season, he just got lucky to not give up as many runs as he should have so far.
  3. Ennder
    Morneau is having a great year this year but this is the first time he has put up an elite offensive season. He still has yet to hit a .950 OPS and really hasn't deserved an MVP award yet. He has to show me a full elite season for him to creep up my list. Votto has to prove he can stay healthy a full season to really deserve where I put him too but he easily could be the best of this bunch.
  4. Ennder
    It doesn't really work like that, BABIP isn't a stat you are good or bad at. You can have a low BABIP and still be a bad pitcher, you can have a high BABIP and still be a good pitcher. It is just a way to isolate some of the variance out of pitching stats. To keep it as simple as you can, if a pitcher has completely normal for him levels in all other peripherals and just has a higher than normal BABIP it is almost always just variance or 'luck'. If a bunch of peripherals all change at the same time there is usually something more to it.
  5. Ennder
    Well if you are going to include Tex you certainly have to include Cabrera and you would probably want to include Pujols since they are the same age. Howard might make the HOF but that is because he excels in the sexy stats more than because he is actually a great player. HR/RBI still get more press than they should.
  6. Ennder
    There is no bad luck in Hoffman's stats for what it is worth, he has earned that high of an ERA. Doug Davis pretty clearly has been unlucky this year, Dave Bush has pretty clearly been lucky. The rest of the rotation is pretty neutral as far as any luck in the stats. Davis has a 58% LOB rate and a .441 BABIP against while keeping all of his other stats completely normal, that is just variation in ERA like 99% of the time. I'm willing to bet he has a stretch like this every season since he puts so many guys on base when a few extra balls find holes against him he probably always sees a big jump in ERA.
  7. Ennder
    3 teams have a worse BB/9 than we do, 8 have a worse K/BB than we do. 10 have a worse xFIP than we do but only 2 have a worse FIP. We have the highest BABIP against and 2nd highest HR/9 in the league. Some of it is likely bad luck given just how high the BABIP is but most of it is just bad pitching and really bad defense so far.
  8. Ennder
    AGon Votto Fielder Morneau Howard
  9. Ennder
    This is assuming we had some sort of quality younger players to fill these spots, which isn't a given in any way.
  10. Ennder
    Davis has a career ERA of 4.37, career xFIP of 4.43 and a career FIP of 4.41. He doesn't generally outpitch his peripherals. I again would answer it with I don't judge a pitcher by ER. Davis hasn't had a bad start to the year, he's had a lot of balls find holes for singles which has led to a lot of ER. All of his other stats are exactly where I would have expected them to be except for a .415 BABIP. Even just watching the game it was really easy to see that he was having bad luck as every groundball hit just happened to be between 2 players.
  11. Ennder
    The Cordero deal was terrible, we just made a string of bad deals as well. Small market teams should be developing young closers and trading them for prospects. I'll never understand why a team like the Pirates signs Dotel instead of letting say Meek get experience and then trading him as an example.
  12. Ennder
    I don't think a team can lose 8 games in a row and not have it be demoralizing.
  13. Ennder
    For this year the NL Central is terrible, the AL East is by far the best and the rest of the divisions are in the middle with maybe a slight edge to the NL East since they have the Phillies. Historically the AL Central and NL West have been pretty bad but the NL West now has the Rockies looking good and the Giants having great pitching even though they aren't a great team because of the hitting. I think the Padres are just the hot team that is going to end under .500 of the season though. Usually when someone talks about this it is just posting an opinion but you can sort of see how tough they are by looking at a divisions record outside the division or by looking at something like baseballprospectus hit list ratings which go a lot more in depth than just W/L records.
  14. Ennder
    Well if they were going to insist on giving Hoffman more of a shot today was probably as good a day as any to let him pitch since it was a 2 run lead and he is rested.
  15. Ennder
    No I just don't use ERA as my primary stat for judging pitchers. ERA is utterly worthless over a 7 game span, it means absolutely nothing. It takes 500 IP for ERA to stabilize into a meaningful value, a single season of the stat is mostly worthless. If you judge Davis by more reasonable means he has been about the same this year as he always has been, he's just given up more runs than normal. You would also realize how poorly Dave Bush has pitched regardless of the results of his ERA.
  16. Ennder
    He is bouncing half his pitches in front of the plate and the other half are right down the middle, I don't think his 'stuff' has changed but he just does not have any control at all right now. I would think they have to go with someone else as closer until Hoffman figures it out.
  17. Ennder
    The past 3 years the Brewers have been 253-233, looks pretty darn good to me. If you take it to a 5 year sample they have been 409-401. Not sure what that has to do with this years rotation though.
  18. Ennder
    6 years ago I thought the team would be lucky to reach .500 more than twice in the next 5 years. Rebuilding takes way longer than people seem to think.
  19. Ennder
    If you are going to be so hung up on 32 games and refuse to believe that statistics aren't really that meaningful over that span of games then I don't think we can really discuss things because we view the game completely irrevocably differently. I'll take the 3 year sample over the month and a half of games every time. If you really think this rotation should have a 5.27 ERA at this point and just can't get better we are never going to come close to agreeing with each other.
  20. Ennder
    Takes more than a full season to offset multiple years of history to be honest. Fans in general overreact to almost everything and assume every bad stretch and every good stretch means way more than it does. Results wise there is no real reason to complain about Gallardo, Wolf or Bush at this point. I hope you don't honestly think Davis is a 7.56 ERA quality pitcher especially given his peripherals on the year. Hoffman, Vargas, Hawkins have all been pretty miserable and who knows maybe they are done but I still doubt the 3 of them or their replacements combine for the 9+ ERA they have together on the year.
  21. Ennder
    There is really no reason to think it won't get better. Parra is the only pitcher on the team with a career ERA higher than the team ERA. There is absolutely no reason at all to think this team should have anywhere close to a 5.27 ERA, it is just a bad stretch to start the season. Not that the staff is great or anything but it isn't this bad either.
  22. Ennder
    It is still too early to draw any conclusions about a team, I know people hate to hear it but it is the truth. This is like the Packers starting the year 2-3 at this point basically. I don't think the Brewers are as bad as they have looked at home this year, I don't think the Padres are the best team in the NL, I don't think the Nationals will compete for the Wild Card and I don't think the Diamondbacks are the worst team in the NL. You can't even begin to draw conclusions about baseball teams until they play half the season and even then you'll be wrong a lot. If you thought it was a bad team going into the year then this doesn't really confirm anything, if you thought it was a good team going into the year this doesn't really justify changing your mind. If you were like the majority and thought it was somewhere within 5 games of a .500 team one way or the other this really can't begin to change anything at all.
  23. Ennder
    I'm sure they do but it would be more for younger players or pitchers who develop a new pitch or something. If a pitcher just keeps throwing his same stuff the pitching coach might have a minor effect on him, not a major one. In this specific example you have a team who brought up a ton of high talent young pitchers since he arrived, I mean there is no way to isolate how much good or bad Maddux is doing there.
  24. Ennder
    Well if you are going to break it down year by year at least use something like xFIP that is somewhat stable and not so heavily luck based. Bush - 4.54, 4.45, 3.76, 4.36, 4.67, 4.79, .4.97. His GB% has been pretty steady, his K/BB has been pretty steady, he has consistently given up around 12% HR/FB. While his ERA looks good this year his skills are worse than they have been in previous years, unless something changes expect to see that ERA jump up a lot very soon. He is off to the worst season of his career so far this year, it just isn't showing in the ERA. This would support your suggestion btw but I still don't think Maddux is a huge part of the reason, I just think the league had adjusted to him in 2007 and he isn't the same guy since the injury.
  25. Ennder
    Of course Wilson had a 3.03 ERA in 2007 and 4.06 ERA in 2006 so it really doesn't look the same when you include all the data and you would probably want to compare them by age not by season. Milwood had an ERA of 2.86 as recently as 2005. His xFIP in 2009 was actually the worst of his career he just got really lucky with LOB%.
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