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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I agree it is less doubt, it just isn't no doubt. Bauer has still only had a sub 4 ERA once in his career. Gray has only managed to stay healthy back to back seasons once in his career and has not looked great 2 of the past 4 years. Castillo has been pretty streaky as well though he is the one I'm most sure of. DeScalfani's FIP has been about 4.70 over the past 2 years. People look at the ERA"s last year which were all way better than the skills and just assume they are going to be amazing, I think you are going to see that rotation isn't as good as people want to believe it is, that's all I'm saying. From just a straight up run prevention as a team standpoint I expect the Reds will be worse this year because last year there was tons of positive variance in the stats that I don't think they repeat.
  2. Ennder
    If by ready for opening day he means ready to play in the minors on a rehab I'l ok with it. No way he should be starting for the big team by then.
  3. Ennder
    The 6th and 7th guys are the guys who were actually in the rotation last year! That isn't less depth, it is more. I am more confident in Woodruff this year than I was any pitcher in the rotation last year. I'm as confident in Lauer this year as I was any of those guys last year. When healthy I am more confident in Anderson than any of those guys last year. I'm more confident in Lindblom and Houser than I was the 3 rookies last year. Last year's rotation was terrifying, this years is much more comfortable.
  4. Ennder
    I wish they had signed one more guy too but overall this one kind of confuses me. The rotation is in a much better spot than it was this time last year. There is more depth and the players are more proven. Going into the season with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta was scary as heck as not one of them had seen success as a starter yet. I don't understand why so many were so high on the rotation last year yet so low this year. This is basically the same quality rotation that we have seen from the team each of the past 3 or 4 seasons only with more depth this year.
  5. Ennder
    These two statements are at odds with each other. The Reds rotation is seeing a heavy downgrade in defense at SS, 2B and LF this year. They way overperformed their FIPs in general last year and there is absolutely no depth past the front 5. I will easily take the under on the Reds matching last year for run prevention. Also the run differential stat is a really weak one, all it takes is removing Corbin Burnes from the mix last year and the run differential for the Brewers goes from mediocre to elite. It just isn't a very valid stat. To be fair though the 3rd order win percentage of the two teams was very close, that is a bit less error prone than run differential. To each their own, but the Reds are likely being a bit overrated going into the season. That rotation has a lot of doubt in it but everyone seems to be sure it will be great. They are in the mix but they hardly ahead of the class.
  6. Ennder
    The problem with baseball is young people don't like it. The demographics for baseball for people under 40 are awful. The game isn't losing people who grew up with it and are in their 40's and 50's now. The attendance is completely tanking for people ages 18-35 and 10 years from now that is going to cause huge problems if they don't fix it. Drastic changes need to be made and soon. They have to push them through even if the stuffy old men (of which I am one of) don't want to see change. Because if they don't change they are going to have real problems.
  7. Ennder
    In 2008 the Mariners went 61-101. In 2009 without really adding much to the team they went 85-77. From a very short sighted point of view management decided they were ready to compete and they signed a bunch of free agents going into 2010. The two following seasons they went 61-101 and 67-95. You guys can laugh about projections including very rare high win totals for bad teams but it just happens sometimes. That 2009 Mariners team was just awful but everything just sort of went right for them and they pulled out 85 wins with a 61 win roster.
  8. Ennder
    Reds - 85 Brewers - 85 Cubs - 85 Cardinals - 85 Pirates - 61 Reds have done the most to improve but had the most need as well. Oddly enough I think the Brewers have had the 2nd best offseason of these teams though it was mostly just treading water. Cubs and Cardinals offseasons have just been losing some guys.
  9. Ennder
    PECOTA is absolutely terrible at projecting playing time for guys who aren't established set in stone every day contributors. Probably why they liked the Brewers last year since that was most of the lineup and are less impressed this year since there is going to be a lot of mix and match. As I understand it they changed a number of things this season so maybe that changed. I know I used to buy PECOTA years ago but probably about 7 years ago or so all of the other systems passed them and I felt I was paying for probably the weakest of the systems out there.
  10. Ennder
    Not really sure what to think of this but the 1 game wild card playoff has easily been the best change in baseball in the past 20 years. Those are probably the best playoff games of the entire season unless we are lucky enough to get a game 7 which most series don't end up in. Not giving teams a home game is pretty harsh for the franchise though. Those playoff home games generate a ton of revenue. I kind of like how this makes the best teams have more advantage come playoff time than they do right now making it even more important to push for wins when you are good instead of just coasting. Not sure this is the way I would have gone about it.
  11. Ennder
    I agree with your idea here but I have no clue what we could trade that the Dodgers would actually want. The major idea of this trade was to salary dump Joc, Stripling was just a minor part of the deal.
  12. Ennder
    I wouldn't think PECOTA would like the Brewers. It is notoriously harsh with playing time for non full time players so I would imagine it is going to undervalue a lot of Brewers this season.
  13. Ennder
    I think that there are some very likely to hit incentives for the Dodgers that still will push their payroll over the cap. But even if that happens they have tons of room next year.
  14. Ennder
    It is a salary dump. Pederson was making almost $10M. People can say the large market team's have endless money but it simply is not true. Teams do not like to operate over the cap in general and the Dodgers have been pretty good about working under it.
  15. Ennder
    https://nypost.com/2020/02/05/yankees-james-paxton-out-3-4-four-months-following-surgery/ James Paxton out 3-4 months after back surgery. Pretty harsh timing for them to have it happen right before spring training.
  16. Ennder
    The only significant contract the Red Sox unload after this season are Rusney Castillo ($14.25M) and Jackie Bradley, Jr. ($11M), and Bradley isn't a bad contract. But then you have Devers hitting Arby-1, Benintendi hitting Arby-2, and Eduardo Rodriguez hitting Arby-3. It will likely be a major luxury tax hit to resign him. But it will be the first year of the luxury cap. The reason they are resetting it is because the penalties get much worse over time.
  17. Ennder
    I really want to see Trout in the playoffs so I hope this is enough to get them there.
  18. Ennder
    Oh he probably is done, I mean it is the safe bet coming back from injuries and failing to get better. But to say this is somehow definite proof is just not true. Every year we go into spring and people are worried about a pitchers velocity being down 5+ MPH and most of the time it doesn't mean anything and sometimes it means a lot. People like to just deal in absolutes way too much.
  19. Ennder
    This puts the Red Sox in a position to be the front runners on Betts next year as long as they handled things ok so he isn't just pissed off.
  20. Ennder
    The Twins are in the running for the World Series this year, a good starting pitcher that is cost controlled has a ton of value to them since it is the weakest part of their team.
  21. Ennder
    We have him through the 2022 season so if they decide to trade him it will be sometime between midseason 2021 and midseason 2022. Just depends on how the rest of the team looks and how the team is doing.
  22. Ennder
    Sometimes, but sometimes not. You are trying to talk about this stuff in absolutes and it simply is not cut and dry. It is very plausible that a team releases a guy at the end of spring training and the Brewers want them for depth and it has nothing at all to do with someone flaming out. It just isn't that easy.
  23. Ennder
    I wouldn't be. I'd be resting on my 4 world series championships in 16 years and trust in the team to make good choices. If the Red Sox want to do a 1 year rebuild this is the perfect way for them to do it. They may be down a bit in 2020 but the team will be better in 2021+ for it.
  24. Ennder
    Frietas, TWilliams and maybe Yardley and Rodriguez. You have to keep in mind that they need to have spots they can replace mid season as well. The Brewers tend to pick up 4 or 5 guys mid season as well. They signed 5 guys in April last year. They signed 3 more in July. You still need a little flexibility going into the season. I think every move they make from here on out has a lot of discussion about roster availability around it, it isn't just about the money at this point.
  25. Ennder
    Spring velocity is usually down 3 or 4 MPH at this point for everyone. I don't think you can just say he is toast because it is only 88 now. It is certainly someone hard to bet on as depth though. More likely you are signing him to rehab half the season first.
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