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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    My expectation for SHaw is he will hit 20+ HR. Last year really looks like the outlier in his career and I think this is a good guy to bet on for this small contract. Fans are quick to just call a guy done but the reality usually isn't that it works like that. One bad year generally is just one bad year unless there were warning signs before that. Shaw didn't have any sort of warning signs and is too young to just age out.
  2. Ennder
    To me this is like asking the Brewers to sign Jeff Suppan to this deal. His stats are headed in the wrong direction and this skillset doesn't tend to age well at all. I think the White Sox just spent $55M on a 4+ ERA pitcher who is only going to get worse. I get it for the White Sox who have a very young team and so can afford an overpay, I don't think this deal works at all for the Brewers.
  3. Ennder
    He is 28 years old and his 3 year average in WAR is slightly over 2 and that includes a partial season. Stretch it out to 4 years and it is more like 1.6 WAR. If anything he is getting underpaid by what he has actually done.
  4. Ennder
    He is 28 years old and his 3 year average in WAR is slightly over 2 and that includes a partial season. Stretch it out to 4 years and it is more like 1.6 WAR. If anything he is getting underpaid by what he has actually done.
  5. Ennder
    If you ran that list vs bullpen ERA I bet they would match up pretty well. Anyway there is no way to know what the Reds rotation is going to be this year. If you take the worse of their past 2 years the rotation lines up like this for ERA 4.30, 4.48, 4.90, 4.93, 3.98. The best case looks like a fantastic rotation,the worst case looks like a bad one lacking depth after the top 5. There is just no way to know what they will bring because it is made up of highly inconsistent pitchers. If you look at their lineup pretty much every player on the team except for Votto had their best year last year. There is going to be some offensive falloff almost for sure. Now maybe Moustakas pumps it back up to where it was last year but I don't see much improvement offensively for them next year unless Votto goes back to being Votto.
  6. Ennder
    If you ran that list vs bullpen ERA I bet they would match up pretty well. Anyway there is no way to know what the Reds rotation is going to be this year. If you take the worse of their past 2 years the rotation lines up like this for ERA 4.30, 4.48, 4.90, 4.93, 3.98. The best case looks like a fantastic rotation,the worst case looks like a bad one lacking depth after the top 5. There is just no way to know what they will bring because it is made up of highly inconsistent pitchers. If you look at their lineup pretty much every player on the team except for Votto had their best year last year. There is going to be some offensive falloff almost for sure. Now maybe Moustakas pumps it back up to where it was last year but I don't see much improvement offensively for them next year unless Votto goes back to being Votto.
  7. Ennder
    This is the great thing about baseball. I think all of the moves Stearns has made are a big net plus bringing in more value than what we paid for them. The only one I'm not sure of is Urias who I think might end up in AAA more than on the big league team. Good move in the long term but for 2020 I see that as the lowest impact move. This team as constructed today is about as good as last years and has a lot more financial flexibility still.
  8. Ennder
    This is the great thing about baseball. I think all of the moves Stearns has made are a big net plus bringing in more value than what we paid for them. The only one I'm not sure of is Urias who I think might end up in AAA more than on the big league team. Good move in the long term but for 2020 I see that as the lowest impact move. This team as constructed today is about as good as last years and has a lot more financial flexibility still.
  9. Ennder
    This is an overpay by about $5M per season.
  10. Ennder
    This is an overpay by about $5M per season.
  11. Ennder
    I don't think there is a way to know what the Reds are. The lineup looks good on paper, especially if Votto rebounds. However there is no real depth at all so when injuries start to hit they could falter quickly. The rotation has a lot of upside but it is a combination of guys who struggle to stay healthy and guys who have been very inconsistent year to year. Last year most of the team played to their career best in stats but they still only managed 75 wins, to make things even more confusing their pythagorean record suggest they should have won a bunch more. They are just such a bipolar team that I don't know what at all to expect from them. The White Sox are a bit more of a standard rebuild type team. They have a bunch of young talent and they are just trying to plug the holes around it with veteran guys to start getting used to winning as a team again. They may not make a run at the playoffs this year but it is still a big step for them to push for .500+. This is the perfect type of guy for that team imo.
  12. Ennder
    I don't think there is a way to know what the Reds are. The lineup looks good on paper, especially if Votto rebounds. However there is no real depth at all so when injuries start to hit they could falter quickly. The rotation has a lot of upside but it is a combination of guys who struggle to stay healthy and guys who have been very inconsistent year to year. Last year most of the team played to their career best in stats but they still only managed 75 wins, to make things even more confusing their pythagorean record suggest they should have won a bunch more. They are just such a bipolar team that I don't know what at all to expect from them. The White Sox are a bit more of a standard rebuild type team. They have a bunch of young talent and they are just trying to plug the holes around it with veteran guys to start getting used to winning as a team again. They may not make a run at the playoffs this year but it is still a big step for them to push for .500+. This is the perfect type of guy for that team imo.
  13. Ennder
    Shaw's struggles last year were mostly due to him striking out almost twice as much as the year before. Not sure that is a great comparison.
  14. Ennder
    You have to be really careful with Colorado splits. The road splits get suppressed because they get used to how the ball plays in Colorado. When hitters leave that park they almost always outproduce their road splits by a significant amount. I don't see us making this trade though, our minor league depth just isn't there for it.
  15. Ennder
    This is a good landing spot for Teheran because his big problem is that he gives up so many home runs. The AL West is all pitchers parks and then Texas which is new so who knows. He wouldn't have been a very good match for the Brewers in their park.
  16. Ennder
    I think the team still needs depth at 3B even if it is another part time type guy and they need a more solid SP and maybe one more bullpen arm. What Stearns has done overall this offseason is great. A lot of people are going to think this was a bad offseason because these aren't big names but every single guy he signed has put up league average or better production at times over the past 3 years. If even half of them move back to that production this is a huge win of an offseason, if they mostly play to their 3 year averages it is a modest win. There is a lot of depth here and I don't expect a lot of PA from replacement level players which is what really hurt the team last year.
  17. Ennder
    And by 2022 they'll be looking to include a prospect to unload it. I'm not a big Villar guy and I don't expect him to be that great this year, but what I said is still the reality. The only reason he isn't up for a big payday yet is he has that one bad season in there. If he doesn't show that inconsistency again this year he is going to get paid and paid quite a bit.
  18. Ennder
    Last year Houston, NYY, Twins and Dodgers all beat that. The year before the Yankees, Red Sox and maybe the Dodgers and A's beat it. That lineup is good but still has tons of flaws.
  19. Ennder
    If Villar has a good year this year he will get at least 3 years $40M next year minimum.
  20. Ennder
    If Smoak had played like he did in 2017 or 2018 last year he would be making $10M+ a year. So the question is just was last year just an off year or did something change. The underlying stat suggests it was just an off year but you can never be sure. This could easily be a nice bargain.
  21. Ennder
    2019 Shaw was completely lost at the plate, it really has no relation at all to 2018 Shaw and whether he was unlucky or not. There was no way to foresee 2019 Shaw other than to just not like the guy and say he sucks and happen to get lucky.
  22. Ennder
    Just some random thing I happened to see. Brewers had the 5th best record in the NL the past decade. If the baseball season were 1620 games long we would have made the Wild Card game. The Cubs, Giants and Mets would not make the playoffs.
  23. Ennder
    But, with all of our current OF depth (Yeli, Cain, Garcia, Braun, Gamel), I don't think we would have had the need to have our 1B filling any innings in the OF this year. It is still a loss of flexibility for in game moves, especially once a few guys hit the DL.
  24. Ennder
    This is an upgrade at 1B over Thames but I think at least part of that upgrade is offset by the fact Smoak can't fill in at OF.
  25. Ennder
    Villar is highly unlikely to repeat his value from last season. For one thing he played in 162 games and that is just really rare to repeat. Secondly a ton of his value came from baserunning and I think that is generally pretty erratic year to year. I would doubt he comes close to repeating that value again. Villar is probably a 2 win player, which makes him an average major league player. That has a ton of value mind you.
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