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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    A .300 OBP with a .400 SLG is crap Gomez didn't even have a .400 SLG in his best season, but if his glove is good enough, he is still a valuable player for a low price. He's not that far off from the offense he provided in his best season, the problem is that his defense overall hasn't been good enough to justify the weak offense.
  2. kramnoj
    I'm aware that's an opinion and not really a "fact". If that is your belief, demonstrate why using raw OPS is a better way to define a RF in Colorado, compared to adjusting for context and including defense. So he's not strictly a product of Coors field. Find someone who said that and make sure you tell them. I said that we should include park factors. Didn't say that he wasn't a good hitter in previous years. There are teams looking at him, MLBTR has the Rangers and Giants as possibilities.
  3. kramnoj
    The biggest hope is that, for the 1st time in years, Melvin's FA signings will total up to be above replacement level. 2008? Per Bref WAR Kendall 2 Cameron 3.3 Kapler 1.5 Branyan .9 Riske -.3 Gagne -.5 Tavarez -.7
  4. kramnoj
    And now he's "struggling" to a .776 OPS and you wouldn't be shocked if a team in the middle of a playoff race cuts him? Are you not aware that unadjusted OPS isn't really a good way to look at a RF in Colorado? That OPS is league average in that environment. League Average for a RF isn't good. Combine that with bad defense, and you don't have a good player. If you look at his last 3 years, he's basically a replacement player.
  5. kramnoj
    I continue to be amazed with the utter contempt many keep expressing for Casey McGehee. There isn't really any contempt, let alone any of the utter variety. but yet some here can't wait until he's gone Only in return for something the Brewers need, starting pitching. Nobody is advocating cutting him. and the same people want to run him out of town. Find one person who says they want to run him out of town. I think people want to drive him to airport and pick up a starting pitcher to drive back to Miller Park while they are there. I'm not disparaging Gamel, but the reality is that Gamel struggled against AAA pitching until July this year. That's reality, but it's not utter reality. Utter reality would be that Gamel was injured and then didn't have the full benefit of spring training to prepare for the season.
  6. kramnoj
    Given the state of the pitching staff the last few weeks, that wasn't the easiest of tasks. CC was the only starter to win a game in the regular season under Sveum.
  7. kramnoj
    Fangraphs did something of what you are looking for, by looking at the players they believed had the most trade value: http://www.fangraphs.com/...hp/2010-trade-value-5-1/
  8. kramnoj
    Gallardo is signed through 2014, and if he's still good, the Brewers will pick up his 2015 option. The Brewers can't disable Gallardo without his consent. If he gets shut down early this year, it will have no bearing on how much money he gets in 2016.
  9. kramnoj
    Why? He gets paid either way, and his service time isn't affected.
  10. kramnoj
    Where are you getting 25-30 starts from? The topic is Brewers pitching since the ASB. There have been 26 starts since the ASB.
  11. kramnoj
    I've never been big on hiring former players Who are you big on hiring? There is some success with non-players, but it can be tough for non-players to earn some players respect. If the decision has already been made to not bring back Macha, I really don't understand why he should be finishing the season. I would much rather give Sveum the last 6 weeks or so to run the team and see how he manages.
  12. kramnoj
    Take careful aim, as in The debater drew a bead on his opponent. This term, dating from about 1830, alludes to the bead on a revolver or rifle, that is, a small knob in the foresight. [c. 1930] http://www.answers.com/topic/draw-a-bead-on
  13. kramnoj
    They had Edmonds in the fold who also hit lefthanded and Counsell/Inglett both hit lefthanded all as bench players. Edmonds wasn't with the team when Gerut was offered arbitration. Counsell and Inglett don't play CF. Gerut also had a chance of being the starter in CF, but didn't perform well and got hurt. He was an expensive insurance policy that didn't pan out.
  14. kramnoj
    Why would the Brewers not call him up in September? Service time. Time spent in the majors this year, in a lost year, is potentially less time spent in the majors in a competitive year. I don't know how the Brewers will build a contending team next year, but if they are able to do so, I would rather Jeffress be available in mid April if he's ready and be able to get more of a 7th partial year rather than have to delay his appearance until mid May or so.
  15. kramnoj
    Bush will not qualify as an A or B FA.
  16. kramnoj
    But I'd like to know what #5 starter type Melvin turned down for JJ only to accept Gomez. That was covered in a different thread, but one of the names mentioned was Michael Bowden. He was rated as a top 80-90 prospect by BA for 3 years, but was unranked going into this year. Another player mentioned was Harang. He certainly hasn't been good this year. I think Doumit was mentioned, maybe Capps. Basically nobody was willing to offer what any fans expected. Gomez was extremely high risk, mediumish reward. Cain had some injury history, so getting Gomez was a gamble. It didn't pay off, but now Cain looks ready, and Dickerson is a great pickup for Edmonds.
  17. kramnoj
    Bush is a free agent after this year. Melvin was willing to trade him before the deadline, and mentioned QS, but didn't have any takers. The Brewers will have money to retain Bush for one more year, and I don't know that they have anyone that projects to be much better than him to start the season. I don't know that I'd offer him more than one year, but a year for $6M or so wouldn't be horrible.
  18. kramnoj
    I have sent several emails to TH and AW, but they aren't very accessible. Your experience is different than mine, and I believe of others here. I have emailed TH a few times. I believe he has responded to every one, within a day, often within hours. My emails have been questions. I haven't felt the need to criticize him, because I know that would have no useful result. The beat writers need to find a style that matches them while delivering information and do so in a way that satisfies thousands, or tens of thousands of readers. In a larger city, you can choose from different papers and find the writer that suits you best. If I want to read about the Yankees. I will read Tyler Kepner. In a smaller city, we obviously will have fewer choices. I'm curious what people expect to gain from reading a game story? What is to be gained that can't be obtained from just looking at a game summary and box score? If anything important happened, it will get it's own blog entry, or people will be talking about it here.
  19. kramnoj
    I don't quite understand people mocking Macha for a decision that he didn't make, or hadn't yet made. Presumably, there are enough things to find on a losing team to pick apart that we don't need to invent things to belittle. I'm glad Cain got the start. I would hope that Macha will choose to let Cain start over the hobbled Edmonds. I'm somewhat pleasantly surprised that he let Cain bat 6th.
  20. kramnoj
    It's 126 PA. Lots of things are possible. He shouldn't have had a split .600 points higher than his OPS against righties in 2007, but he did, and that was in 128 PA. If you look at this line right now and his season line in 2008, his BA and OBP are remarkably similar, it's the slugging that is 90 points lower that is different.
  21. kramnoj
    I'm not a sabermatrician, so I could easily get some of this wrong, but historically, right handed batters typically display a generic split against left handed pitching, I think it is typically 8% or 10% better than their production against right handed pitching. There are very few true lefty killers. Even Big Hurt, with over 2000 PA had a 15% better production against lefties. Braun's 19% split isn't sustainable. That being the case, there was going to have to be some regression to the mean. This regression seems a bit harsh, but it was going to come in one way or another. And now that I've written that, I realize that the 19% Braun has includes this year, so it was even more unsustainable at the number it was at before this year.
  22. kramnoj
    Elias rankings don't look at the player's career. Here is a link to the rankings: http://www.mlbtraderumors...ias-rankings-update.html Bush has 45.25 points, the lowest rated B is Harang at 60.67. For comparison, Wolf is still a type A because of last year.
  23. kramnoj
    What specifically don't you understand? Having money to spend and not being able to replace a player doesn't improve the club. I think there's a real possibility that the Brewers will have more money than they can wisely spend the next few years.
  24. kramnoj
    However, fly balls tend to turn into outs at a fairly high rate, so I converted them to outs and rounded in Harts favor figuring it was somewhat of a wash. That would be my area of dispute. For the HR that Hart is hitting that would be just enough HR, I would consider them to be more line drives than fly balls.
  25. kramnoj
    If you normalize his HR rate to his career average, he would be batting around .265, OPSing .320, have 16 HRs, be SLGing .485, and OPSing .805. Can you show your math on this, because this doesn't seem right. It seems like you are saying that his extra HR will become outs, and I don't think that would be right. If the idea is that his just enough HR won't be long enough to be HR next year, they could still be singles, doubles, or triples (or, very rarely inside the park HR). I think it's better to just look at ZIP's Rest of Season projection, which is a .276/.335/.500 line. That looks more reasonable to me.
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