kramnoj
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Everything posted by kramnoj
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I struggle to think of any other situations where a vet has been played over soemone with better promise and tolerable performance. Do you not remember Hall getting any starts last year? While it appears they are resolved to giving Suppan another 20+ chances to prove his worth, Demonstrate how this appears to be the case.
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That's just silly. He has an engineering degree from the University of Pittsburgh. I think Macha has quite a few opportunities for improvement, but I don't see any reason to believe intelligence to be a weakness of his. Occam's Razor. He isn't up to date on advanced sabermetrics. He isn't a good interpersonal communicator. Like most baseball people, he can be prone to fail with a Proven Veteran as opposed to young guy. There's quite a few things one can see that Macha lacks before irresponsibly suggesting he lacks intelligence.
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Keep somebody that actually has the talent to get batters out themselves, not someone who depends on guys to "miss" pitches. Do you think anybody is arguing this? The question is, do the other pitchers not only have the talent, but the ability to get batters out? I don't think anybody here wants Suppan to start a game for the Brewers this year. I think everybody would love it if better pitchers started games over him. What a few of us are saying is that Suppan was one of our better pitchers this year, and injuries will most likely occur that will bring up a situation where we are going to need to 6, 7, 8 deep, or worse. At this point, the only loss to the Brewers if Suppan gets sent to the bullpen is that Villenueva is sent to the minors. And we're not losing him, he's available when needed. If Suppan does get sent to the bullpen, he surely won't be a key member. He just won't have much impact, but will be an emergency guy when needed, both in the bullpen and as an emergency starter. If we get in a situation where 2 or 3 SP are out of the rotation because of injury, then the team may as well keep Suppan around since we are paying him anyway. **** As to quality starts, it may now be that most quality starts don't result in a win, but that says more about today's pitching and how many NDs pitchers get. Gallardo was certainly a good pitcher last year, but he had 13 wins in 30 games started. Why would we expect a generic quality start to have a better success ratio than Gallardo did?
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good luck finding a thesaurus that finds "average" and "quality" synonymous. It was clear that you used a thesaurus to write your first post, but I don't need one to know that the intent of the quality start was to represent how many times a pitcher has a game that gives his team a decent chance to win. Last time I checked, slightly more than half of "quality starts" were either losses or ND's for the pitcher. Odd how such "quality" would yield sub .500 results? What was the last time you checked, and what was the source? Also, if a team loses a game when the SP gives up 3 runs, chances are it was lost by the bullpen or the team didn't score enough runs. Hard to blame that on the pitcher. Not when the player being compared to him wins 7 games (who did that last year?). First, "quality starts" are right behind pitching "wins" as one of the most overrated (and , in the case of "quality starts", most convoluted and misleading) major statistics in the game, and, perhaps, all of sports. Jeff Suppan: 4.68 ERA 135-136 (with 4 of those seasons on an offensive juggernaut to boot). So you understand wins aren't really relevant, yet you use it twice within your first few posts to make your point?
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3 earned runs in 6 innings is "quality" pitching then? A 4.50 ERA is a hallmark of a quality starter? It should be remembered that 3 in 6 is the minimum qualifier. A good portion of QS, even from Suppan, are better than that. And yes, 4.50 ERA for today is quality, if quality equals around average or better.
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Does anybody else think this could easily end up like the A-Rod situation in Texas? I don't think there is a chance of that happening. Mauer is a favorite son who is being paid market value, and maybe a little bit of a discount. Arod was a mercenary who signed for a record deal. Besides that, Arod was worth his salary in Texas, it was the Chan Ho Park deal that had a much more negative impact.
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Right now the 2011 Twins payroll has $67.5M going to 7 players in Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer, Baker, Harris and Span. Cots has the current Twins payroll at $95M, so that would seem to be what the Twins think their new revenue will allow them to budget, so Mauer's future salary represents about 24% of the possible payroll.
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If the Twins can sign Mauer to this type of extension there is NO REASON (other than what the Billy Beane Moneyball fanatics on this board want you to believe) for us not to be able to have the money to sing Prince. The issue isn't whether the Brewers have the money to sign Prince. They do. The question is what is a salary that Prince will accept and that accurately measures his value and injury risk. I've seen people say that the revenue increase of the new stadium will make up for the increase in pay to Mauer, so the Twins have the challenge of continuing to develop young talent to play with their signed talent.
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Eli Dukes released by Washington
kramnoj replied to liveforoctober's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It would be a mistake to assume that the Nats didn't try to get anything for him. http://voices.washingtonp...ijah_dukes_released.html There was no interest in a trade for him. -
You can look at Turnbow and Gagne as examples of when the Brewers will give up on a pitcher. For some, even they got too many chances, but I don't think there's any reason to believe that Suppan will last 4 months in the rotation if he can't get people out.
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"I heard a story about Bill Hall when he was with Milwaukee," writes the player. "He was coming off a career year in 2006 when he had 85 RBIs, 35 homers and a new $24 million contract. He showed up to camp pretty loose. He was having fun off the field, too. Word of his partying made the rounds and guys predicted he was due for a slump. Sure enough, his RBI total dropped to 63, he hit only 14 homers the next season and he was a disaster in the field. It started in spring and he never recovered" That's from the linked piece. So, it's not presented as knowledge. It's presented as rumor that has been spread around. How long had the rumor made it's way before getting to Player X, and how many times did it get exaggerated in the process? Secondly, he was predicted that he was due for a slump. Well, I think of a slump as shorter than a couple of years. Maybe they mean regression and they don't know the word.
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Brewers seek passage of scalping bill
kramnoj replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Ticket pricing can be interesting, if you like the theory of supply and demand. The Mets have something like 200 different ticket prices: http://newyork.mets.mlb.c...park/seating_pricing.jsp At some point it gets a bit much. I'm all for the Brewers making the money rather than scalpers, so it can actually improve the team. And it would certainly make sense to sell OD tickets at a different price, if they aren't bought as a package. But at some point there is a limit where it just seems silly, and I think the Mets may have reached that. -
Random appearances of varying length is not the proper way to prepare a starter for 5 1/2 months of the season. What benefit are you going to gain, versus the loss of preparing the 5th starter? You get one extra start from 3 pitchers, versus setting back the 5th starter on his schedule for a couple of games. What's the number of runs you expect to gain from that transaction?
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There are 3 days off in April. The same as most months. The Brewers could set up a 4 man for the first two weeks, but that isn't going to properly prepare the 5th starter for the rest of the season.
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No the Sox are among the next group down from the Yankees; the Mets, the Phillies, the LA teams, Detroit and the Cubs. That's 7 teams. What kind of logic forms this group? The Brewers are closer to the Angels than the Angels are to the Red Sox. Let's be clear, rather than just listing names. Angels this year are at $116M before pre-arby players. Cubs this year are at $138 before pre-arby players. Dodgers high was 2 years ago at $118M Mets highest was last year at $149M. Phillies were at $113M last year. Tigers were at $137M two years ago. White Sox were at $121M two years ago. How can it be disputed that the Red Sox have a payroll advantage for the vast majority of teams?
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The Yankee payroll was $206m last year, the Red Sox came in 6th at $122m. And this year Cot's has the Sox payroll at close to $166M, without the pre-arby players. Are you really going to dispute that the Sox have a payroll advantage over the vast majority of teams? I've been one to say that teams can compete if they are smart, and for the teams that can't compete, payroll is usually secondary to the smarts of the team management. But the glaring consistent exception is the AL East. I would welcome some kind of realignment that threw both NY teams, Boston, and Philly into the same division.
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Fielder is a player that can provide 5 or 6 wins +, so you think those 4 players are going to consistently provide 17 wins in a season? Keep in mind that Braun hasn't yet been worth 5 wins in a season. Also, Tampa only needs to give up that much talent if another team is competing with them in a trade offer.
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Paying one player over $20 million to get you about 4 more wins a year makes no sense at all, especially for a small market team like the Brewers, when trading him can get you 4 guys, who are virtually free, and bring you 12 extra wins. Can you construct a scenario that makes sense for a team to give up 4 guys that can bring you 12 extra wins, just so they can have Fielder, and then pay him market value? This is like those trade scenarios where people talked about trading Hart for something good, and then signing some undervalued OF. Why would another team trade for Hart and give up pitching when they can just sign that undervalued OF?
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So yeah, I'm going with the odd notion that they'll keep there 12 best pitchers. There's nothing odd about keeping the 12 best pitchers, and I don't think you can find anyone arguing differently. The question is what makes one believe Narveson is a better pitcher than Suppan, when Suppan is healthy? Narveson has an ERA above 5 in the minors in 2 of his last 3 seasons and 3 of his last 5. In the minors. It's certainly possible that he has finally figured it out, and I wouldn't want to see him cut just because Suppan has a huge salary. But Suppan, as overpaid and unexciting as he is, can be a decent pitcher, and the Brewers will probably need more than 5 or 6 SP for this season.
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I think the biggest surprise of Spring Training will be the cutting of Jeff Suppan. I think this will energize the clubhouse and fans alike I think you are projecting here. What reason do you have to believe that the clubhouse will be better without Suppan?
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5 also-rans for Tejada would probably be a win. Have you looked at this trade? I'd be curious how you could see this as a win for Houston. Tejada provided less than 6 wins on the field according to WAR, and was paid over $29M to do so for Houston. Scott only provided Baltimore with 3.5 wins or so, but also only cost less than $3M. The Astros paid about $26M to gain a couple of wins over 2 seasons.
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Teams do receive a benefit to building a new park, but it doesn't mean that they will pay less in revenue sharing than they did before the new stadium. The main goal of a new stadium is to increase revenue. So the Yankees could get a break in revenue sharing responsibilities, but still pay out a larger amount than previously because of the extra revenue generated. The Yankees opening day payroll looks to be their highest yet. Cots has it at almost $211M right now, and doesn't include the salaries of any pre-arby players, so figure another $2M or so.
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The MLB has been talked about contraction several times within the last decade. It was a negotiating tactic on two fronts. One, there was a new CBA that was being negotiated. It was written in the CBA that contraction wouldn't take place for a certain amount of time, and the union gave up something for it (I don't recall what, it wasn't major). Second, by talking about contraction, it was intended to add a spark to the notion that the Twins needed a new stadium. Baseball is doing incredibly well, and the team that is making the least amount of money recently has been the Yankees (but they have been increasing the franchise value).
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J.J. Hardy feature in the Star-Tribune
kramnoj replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Sorry Doug, that is impossible to believe when you leave a player down just long enough to get an extra year of service time. It depends on how you read it. When Hardy was sent down, Melvin may not have intended to keep him down long enough to lose the year of service time. But as you said, Hardy clearly didn't hit well enough to earn his way back quickly. Hardy clearly didn't bring a return that we expected and having two years of ST didn't bring back that much extra value over one year, but I don't know that the Twins would have given up Gomez for just one year of Hardy. -
Braun makes $10M+ in 2014. The Brewers shouldn't have a problem paying Fielder $20M+ and Braun that year.