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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    we can't count on getting a 3-4 starters, most of our position players and a good portion of the pen out of the minors. If that doesn't happen, how likely is $20M spent on FA going to be enough to get the Brewers into the playoffs?
  2. kramnoj
    Obviously how the payroll is divvied up will change over the course of a Fielder contract. Players that will be cheap at the beginning will get more expensive later on. For the team to be competitive during the end of a Fielder contract, if the salary is evenly distributed, the Brewers will need to have a cheap bullpen and won't be able to spend much on SP. On the other hand, Lawrie should be on the field somewhere by that time, providing new cheap talent. It will always be a balancing act.
  3. kramnoj
    The Brewers need to "buy" wins at a greatly reduced rate to be better than average, something that hasn't happened outside of Braun's deal thus far. How are you defining "greatly"? Depending on how you define it, is Melvin really deficient at this compared to other GM's, or is it something that is tough to consistently do, and therefore not really a knock on Melvin at all?
  4. kramnoj
    The Brewers in the last few years haven't kept Gagne as closer even though he was making $10M. They all but gave away Hall even though he was owed milions. Suppan may be given more chances because of his contract, but the first priority of everyone involved is winning this year. If Suppan isn't helping the team, nobody in the Brewers benefits from throwing him out there to attempt to justify a past mistake.
  5. kramnoj
    I don't think Mauer's contract is going to have anything to do with Fielder's contract, it certainly won't be any kind of ceiling for Prince. If Prince stays here, it would almost have to be at some kind of discount, but it won't approach the discount Mauer will accept.
  6. kramnoj
    I'm not sure I agree with that. The Brewers need to find a reasonable projection for Prince, decide how long he should be projected to be good, and determine what salary is reasonable for the Brewers while still being attractive for Prince. I don't think the Brewers should avoid making a good offer to Prince so that they can save money to make mistakes with. If anything, having a big contract on the books will shrink the money available for other contracts, and should put pressure on the club to spend that money wisely. Sure, there will still be mistakes, but blaming Prince's contract for other mistakes and how they affect the Brewers seems too much like the Rangers blaming Arod for his contract when it was Park that was really killing the team.
  7. kramnoj
    So if we sign Prince, then what? Who do we surround him with? If you don't sign Prince, who do you have on the team? You already said you don't like Free Agency. If the Brewers attendance stays strong, they could easily have $20M or more each season dedicated to players acquired in FA. What are the chances of getting consistently good value out of players available in the market you want to stay away from? And yes, I would rather have 85mil instead of 45mil, even if it meant being just a little patience. In the meantime I could get by with 2mil or so. Just a difference of opinion I guess. You're not even including the possibility that Braun doesn't get the $85M. Braun only gets to live this life once. Maybe he has a 90% chance of being good and healthy and earning all that. But there is a chance that things don't quite work out that way, and he doesn't have enough money to be rich for the rest of his life and has to actually go and work for a living. This way he is set for life. What specifically has he lost? This way he only has one or two mansions, and not ten, and he doesn't get to own his own jet. So he's not in the super rich set, but he has security, and has the possibility of more money down the road. I think many of us wish we we could be so stupid.
  8. kramnoj
    And besides, as of right now--Prince and Braun (two superstars) have got them exactly one years worth of playoff games since they've been here. Hmmmmm...doesn't seem to be really working. Braun has been in the majors for 3 seasons, one of which results in a playoff appearance, and you consider that a failure? I know that you've tried to paint yourself as a cynic, or a realist, but this is just negative for the sake of being negative. What would change if you decided to pay him 20 mil per than 10 mil per year? Except your ability to sign even less players. I'm having trouble discerning this. Can you clarify? As far Braun being stupid, why specifically do you feel it was stupid? Braun is going to be a rich man. Sure, he gave up opportunity, but he gave up super luxuries. Braun and his advisors clearly understand that the first $10-$20 million is much more important than the next 10 or 20. One other benefit Braun gets is by having this guaranteed contract, he can borrow against this contract and live a better life earlier. He doesn't have to wait 4 years to get his first big money. There is value to that as well.
  9. kramnoj
    Braun was stupid Braun was risk averse and wise. Compare Braun to Hart. If Hart doesn't have a good year this year, he may never earn big money again. How much guaranteed money did he turn away because he wanted to maximize his potential? Braun potentially gave up huge amounts of money, but he is set for life, and may still get another big payday after this contract. Free agency is just too out of control for a bunch of small fries like us. If Prince stays with Milwaukee, it won't be as a free agent, so this doesn't really apply. Besides, Milwaukee can support a $80M+ payroll, and it isn't realistic to think they can field an entire team of homegrown talent. Teams need FA to supplement whatever their farm doesn't provide.
  10. kramnoj
    How can he make that determination when he doesn't know what it would cost to sign him? If you have questions about what someone said, you could simply ask them. Mocking them for something they didn't say doesn't seem to have any useful purpose. If I had said something along the lines that prompted you to post, I might have implicitly meant that Attanasio wouldn't sign Prince to a deal that isn't good for the franchise, therefore if Prince signs, it would really be great.
  11. kramnoj
    Tell me what the difference is. One easy difference is that nowhere in the selected quote is the phrase "But whatever you have to pay for it, it will be worth it". That's just you making an assumption.
  12. kramnoj
    Reality of the matter is that if the team is anywhere near what Pecota has projected for the Brewers on July 31, 2010, Fielder will probably be dealt to a team in contention for a very nice, farm system revitalizing, prospect laden deal. You think Melvin signed Wolf to 2 years guaranteed and is prepared to give up on Prince this year? If Melvin thought he would only have Prince for this year, it would have made more sense to target a high ceiling guy for 2010 and try to go for broke this year.
  13. kramnoj
    As such it wouldn't surprise me at all if in 2012 Wolf is our #5 pitcher, who also happens to be our most expensive pitcher. I find it telling that you construct a scenario where we have 4 good young cost controlled pitchers in the rotation, and rather than be happy with that ideal scenario, you choose to rage, as you say. In 2012 the team should have pre-arby players at C, 3B, SS and will presumably have at least one if not two prearby players in the OF. If the Brewers farm develops so well that Wolf is the #5 pitcher in 2012, that is a reason to celebrate, not rage. In that scenario, the Brewers may have more money than they can reasonably spend, because they will have so many players making so little money. If that were the case, I would hope that Fielder would have agreed to stay at a below market deal, because that 2012 team could be really fun to watch.
  14. kramnoj
    It is probably clear from Klaw's Escobar report, but I just thought this should be included, from his top 100 list: "I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you. "
  15. kramnoj
    Things don't often change without some impetus. There isn't incentive for MLB to change the division lineup until it becomes a problem. The worst thing about a 4 team division is that it increases the chances of having a poor team be a winner, and that was almost the case in 1994. Until there is a year where a 3rd team in the NL Central is out of the playoffs while having a significantly better record than the AL West winner, there won't be much support for changing something that isn't perceived as being broken.
  16. kramnoj
    The difference between baseball and other sports regarding interleague play is that interleague is newer, and still not liked among some. While of course all games count the same, there would be resistance among traditional fans to have interleague games be perceived as deciding games.
  17. kramnoj
    One of the common reasons for not having season long interleague play is that we shouldn't have teams competing for playoffs down the stretch playing out of league. It can be very exciting when teams that are competing for the same playoff spot are playing against each other in September. A series against the Rangers can be an interesting diversion in June. It wouldn't be quite so compelling down the stretch with just weeks left in the regular season when the team could be playing a division rival instead. As for scheduling, it can be quite complicated, given all the restrictions. A firm called SSG had the contract from 2005-2009. For over two decades prior to that a couple had the contract and it took SSG years to win it over them.
  18. kramnoj
    There are some educated Sawx fans that think the player option is capology. Based on the current CBA rules, the way this is structured, the Average Annual Value of this deal for the Sawx is $7M, rather than $9 or $10M. This would save them when it comes to luxury tax time. That also probably comes into play with the Hall trade. Another site I visited compared Hall's value to the Sawx and likened it to the Raef Lafrenz contract.
  19. kramnoj
    Windler is an editor, and they get votes too, sometimes. There's a onetime sports cartoonist that has a vote. I would guess the same is true of Hart (being the editor, not the cartoonist).
  20. kramnoj
    According to deadspin.com there is a writer named Lisa Olson who has turned in a blank ballot every year since she has been eligible to vote It looks like someone at deadspin doesn't know what the word "abstain" is. Not shocking, really. "(Editor's Note: While we have seven Hall voters on staff, only six are listed below. Lisa Olson abstained from taking part in the voting process as she has in every election since she became eligible.)" from http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/06/fanhouses-2010-hall-of-fame-ballot/
  21. kramnoj
    Dawson is more in line with the Hall of Not Very Good Players. A .323 OBP.... I'm going to guess this was a failed attempt at humor. Dawson certainly provided plenty of value on offense, and of course he started over 1000 games in CF so he provided defensive value as well.
  22. kramnoj
    Anyone who thinks Dawson is HOVG should take a look at all the players that are in the HoF. Dawson fits right in with players that are already there. If the Hall is the HOVG, it became that way because of the Vet Committee before most of us were born. Really, once Rice got in, there was no way that Dawson wasn't going in.
  23. kramnoj
    wouldn't it then be justification for someone like Omar Vizquel to make the HOF because of his truly dominant defensive skills despite his Uecker-esque bat? It wouldn't be shocking to see Vizquel get HoF support. I don't think he'll get in easily, but some writers will like that he doesn't have the gaudy numbers from the steroid era. When Vizquel retires, he could have as many hits as Alomar does, and Alomar will presumably be in the HoF in the next few years. Note, that's not a reason that I would use, but it's not hard to imagine that some writers will see it that way.
  24. kramnoj
    It depends on how you define hitter. If you limit hitting to batting average, Escobar does well. If you consider hitting to be all things that happen when the player has a bat in his hands, Escobar falls short. Batting average is less meaningful than on base or slugging when it comes to how many runs are scored. Based on that, Escobar is not expected to be one of the Brewers better offensive players in 2010, and shouldn't be given more opportunities than better players.
  25. kramnoj
    I think by his 3rd season, he will routinely hit about what he did at Huntsville in 08 on a regular basis: .328/.363/.434. This thread isn't about what Escobar will be in 2012. Escobar shouldn't be projected to be one of the Brewers better offensive players in 2010, so he really shouldn't be getting more plate appearances than better players. Having Escobar hit 9th with pitcher 8th could work fairly nice, with low pressure on Escobar.
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