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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    Boston really is a perfect place for him, with their doubts about Lawrie's ability to play a full season. If they offered him $2M+, it might be hard for him to turn that down over another $1M offer from the home team.
  2. kramnoj
    Projections can be found here: http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/MIL2010.htm Most interesting projection for me is that Lucroy and Salome are basically a wash, and looks to be better than any FA catcher that is available. Edit: I'll list the likely starting 8 Fielder +38 Braun +31 Weeks +11 Hart +4 Gerut +1/Gomez -11 Gamel -6/McGehee -7 Lucroy -7/Salome -8 Escobar -12 Looking at the link for FA, Cameron is at -4. A Gerut/Gomez platoon based on these projections could be close to Cameron, and at better value. Escobar could cost the team a win with his bat, but will hopefully even that out with his glove.
  3. kramnoj
    Your plan is to pay Lackey 20 million in 2011-2013? Bye Bye Prince. This is far from true. Half of the starting position players in 2011 could cost less than $2M total. When 25% or so of the most important players on your team will only take up less than 1% of the payroll, you can afford to have big contracts.
  4. kramnoj
    Year two and three comes and you realize it wasn't such a good idea and you can't afford that number. Why couldn't the Brewers afford that number? If 2011 comes and young prospects aren't growing as hoped, you can always restructure the deal to even it out, as long as Lackey doesn't lose any value in doing so. You say a team like Milwaukee can't afford to do it, I think Milwaukee needs to be as creative as possible to put together a contender.
  5. kramnoj
    Why? If you can look at a team and know that x amount is guaranteed each year and that you have a good chance of having x players be cheap in given years, it would make sense to try and work the numbers to your benefit. This is obviously hypothetical, but let's say Brewers signed Lackey to a 5 year $80M deal. It would be incredibly difficult to pay Lackey $16M for 2010 and field a competitive team. Just a rough guess, but I would probably try and get 2010 to be around $10M, then do 2011-2013 for $20M and then do 2014 for $10M. Once the young Brewers start getting their first or second arby raises, Lackey wouldn't be eating up much payroll, and most of his salary would come when half of the position players are cheap and the team is hopefully relying on young arms as well.
  6. kramnoj
    It's not a rule that it be like that. Arod's deal is structured differently 08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M A lot of times GMs will backload deals to give them more flexibility than anything. The Brewers could have prearby players at CF, C, SS, 3B in 2011 and Braun still cheap in 2011. They could structure a deal that would pay Lackey a lot in 2011 and 2012 and then less after that. I don't think it would be likely, but it's possible and may make some sense.
  7. kramnoj
    I'm amazed that people believe an organization can force-fix its problems in a single off season. Why? Teams have done so. It may not happen every year, but it's not a rare event. This year's crop is not good emough to elevate them to a serious playoff team, so why waste the money? Baseball is hardly that predictable. How many people thought that the White Sox would win the 2005 WS? No team with Fielder, Yo and Braun should give up the season before it starts.
  8. kramnoj
    Davis isn't going to sign for 2/$10M or 3/$12M. I'm guessing the minimum is 2/$16M and I think he is looking for 3/$30M. There's not money to get 3 good SP in FA. If Davis is signed, he would probably project to be the #3 SP for the Brewers.
  9. kramnoj
    What is your definition of decent? Davis has above average ERA+ 4 of the last 5 years, and has had 190+ IP 4 of the last 5 years. He's been an above average pitcher 3 of the last 5 years when looking at a combination of IP and ERA+. I know DD isn't exciting, but he would upgrade the Brewers staff. The Brewers should try to get the best pitchers they can, but if they could get him for a reasonable deal I wouldn't be as upset as some here seem to be.
  10. kramnoj
    At 28 next season, Heether isn't exactly young. Right now he would be one of the 5 oldest position players on the Brewers. Nelson's problem may have been that he felt so much pressure to hit, because he was out of options and didn't have defensive value. If Heether comes up and struggles, he can be safely sent down, and he does have more defensive and positional value than Nelson.
  11. kramnoj
    TH wrote that in his blog. It would be disappointing if Melvin passed up a good deal to avoid trading within the division, but I don't think a year or two of Harang with his contract is really a better return than what Gomez could potentially offer. Harang would then have been the prime pitching acquisition, and I'm guessing that Melvin is hoping for somebody better.
  12. kramnoj
    Glad to see this move happen. Heether certainly deserved it. It would be great if Casey can be moved or packaged for some pitching. Don't know how likely that is, but I think it's the best use of player resources right now.
  13. kramnoj
    Gerut could man centerfield just fine. Gerut may be able to man CF just fine, but we don't want him facing LHP with his career .642 OPS. As bad as Gomez has been, he would be a better option, both at the plate and in the field against lefties. Now if all Gomez is is a short side platoon player and 4th OF, that would be a dreadful return for Hardy. Gerut has had good years, but he did only OPS .660 last year in his ABs with the platoon advantage. It would have been fairly risky to just hand Jody the CF job without having a backup plan. Gomez isn't confidence inspiring as either Plan A or B, but Melvin is taking a calculated risk.
  14. kramnoj
    I'm not bothered too much by Melvin not calling the Tigers. Sure, in OOTP I can trade a player for the most value and then keeping trading players until I get what I want, but Melvin has to operate in the real world. If the Tigers don't have what Melvin wants, or thought he could easily get, for 2010 than there wasn't going to be a trade. Now Melvin could go all Epstein and try to maneuver a 4 team trade, but that's not his style. I do think that Melvin is under pressure to win this season, and Attanasio may feel the same pressure to keep the fans interest for 2010. The best trade in a vacuum may have been Hardy to the Tigers for some minor league pitchers, but that wasn't going to help the Brewers in 2010. Of course Go-Go may not be likely to be a help in 2010, but Melvin is rolling the dice on this one. Bowden may have been a safer bet as well. but a pitcher with a projected 92 ERA+ isn't likely to be a keystone for the 2010 Brewers. Melvin is gambling that Gomez can break out. It's certainly risky, but sometimes teams have to take risks to get big rewards.
  15. kramnoj
    Per AM http://milwaukee.brewers....s_mil&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil Vargas can be a FA.
  16. kramnoj
    This is no doubt disappointing. Maybe Melvin has spent the last month testing the waters with Hardy and this is the best he could get. I would be surprised if that's true, but maybe it is. I would be less disappointed if the Brewers didn't have a couple of CF prospects that could be ready in 2011 or 2012. Getting a return of Gomez when he could be replaced in a year doesn't make a lot of sense to me, and then the Brewers would be in a position of possibly selling low again a year from now. I was sure that Hardy would have more trade value. Not a #2 starter as some had hoped, but I think I would prefer a cheap #4 starter over Gomez. Maybe teams are holding on so much to pitching that even that wasn't possible.
  17. kramnoj
    He may be subject to a fine, but he won't miss any games.
  18. kramnoj
    I don't think Cameron is going to be high on the Yankee priority list. They did just fine this year with Melky and Gardner, and Austin Jackson is waiting in the wings. They are more likely to sign Holliday, and of course they would have some fan pressure to retain who they have, given how well the team played.
  19. kramnoj
    I'd rather see if KC would work a deal for Guillen What benefit do you see Guillen offering? Your feelings on Suppan are clear, but I don't see how doing a trade of Suppan for Guillen helps the Brewers. Guillen doesn't fill any Brewer need. I certainly wouldn't trade Hart away with Suppan just to get rid of Suppan's contract for Guillen. I would have thought that one thing the 2009 season showed was that as bad as Suppan has been, he can't easily be replaced by random AAA filler. If there's a way to move him to improve the team, absolutely do it, but the Brewers aren't so rich in pitchers to start 2010 that they should dump Suppan just to dump him, if it doesn't improve the team on the field or financially.
  20. kramnoj
    I don't think you have to watch every game to determine the value of a players defense, If you want to accurately measure how valuable any single player was in any given season, you absolutely have to watch every single game. Otherwise you are just making an observation about their talent, and not their actual contribution. A single season of UZR should never be used to definitely say how good a player is, but it can tell you how that player measured in a single year. That is all it should be used for. Once we have enough seasons, we can use that combined with scouting to have a clearer, more confident description of their ability.
  21. kramnoj
    Players can be traded while on the DL, but I believe it needs league approval (see Peavy). But really, there isn't much point in trading Riske, this isn't the NBA where salaries need to match. In baseball, teams can just agree to send money (again, with league approval). As bad as Suppan has been, and as much as he's reviled by some, he's about the same quality pitcher as Matthews is a hitter. There doesn't seem to be anything here. I would rather find a AAA CF minor league FA than take on more money while not improving the team.
  22. kramnoj
    A very large portion of Yankee fans grew up as fans of the team before they had such a huge payroll advantage. Should they not enjoy the team just because things have gone better for them? The All Madden analogy doesn't quite hold up. People who grew up Yankee fans didn't stack the deck in their favor. They just happened to grow up rooting for a team that would have lots of advantages. Of course that doesn't apply to bandwagon fans. The kind of people that have the Yankees and the Cowboys and the Lakers as their favorite teams.
  23. kramnoj
    Cameron's suspension was for amphetamines, not steroids. Just wanted to make sure that was clear. And as far as I can see, he does just fine without them.
  24. kramnoj
    Well, duh, thanks for the correction. Mea culpa. Very sorry.
  25. kramnoj
    Why would Mulder sign such a deal? The speculation right now is that the Braves will want to bring him back and that Hudson will instead void the $12M option. He would only do so if he expected to get more guaranteed money, and there should be plenty of clubs who will offer him that. I don't think there should be any expectation that Mulder will be exceptionally cheap.
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