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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    Sean Forman just provided a link that showed what his site will look like next year. Just an incredible amount of information will be readily available. He said it should be ready by ST 2009. Here's the link to a few players: http://sandbox.baseball-reference.com/
  2. kramnoj
    It's only outrageous if you think Cashman actually expects another player or cash to get Cameron. He doesn't. He is just negotiating with Melvin. By making these demands, Cashman is letting Melvin know that Melvin is asking too much for a 36 year old CF that is already being paid close to market value. Cashman isn't going to give up Kennedy and he was never going to give up Hughes. Anybody who expected it just wasn't being realistic. Cashman figures that there isn't much of a market for Cameron outside the Yankees, so he can play hardball with Melvin until Cashman gets a deal he likes. That deal is probably Melky, and possibly a low ceiling minor leaguer.
  3. kramnoj
    This offseason is turning into an absolute joke. For all the good Bud Selig has done for the game, to even suggest that MLB doesnt need a salary cap is absurd and cowardly. All the Yankees are doing is replacing other big contracts that have expired for players like Giambi, Pavano, Mussina, etc. The Yankees certainly overpaid for Burnett, but the Braves had offered 4/$60, so the Yankees added a 5th year and bumped up the salary by a $1M+ each year.
  4. kramnoj
    So much for Cashman re-focusing the Yankees on building their team from within. I'm not sure why this is true. The team is better off with Burnett than Kennedy, for example. Kennedy will provide nice depth at AAA when a pitcher goes down. I took the building from within comment to mean that Cashman won't trade away their top prospects for players when they can sign FA and keep their best prospects. It will be interesting to see if they do go for a 3rd FA pitcher. If they try to retain Pettitte for one year, that makes sense, Hughes wouldn't be hurt by a year of development in AAA. But if they sign a player like Lowe or Sheets for multiple years and block Hughes, well, that would certainly support your observation.
  5. kramnoj
    and yet they want the Brewers to pay some of Cam's salary still? I think that was only a negotiating ploy by Cashman. He doesn't seriously expect the Brewers to pay for some of Cameron's salary, but by asking that, it has to be negotiated away. It also lets the Brewers know they are being unrealistic when they are asking for Kennedy. But this thread is about Burnett. Remember guys: the Yankees can only sign 3 Type A free agents according to MLB rules. I read elsewhere that this number varies based on the number of FA. This year the number is 4 for most teams. It is somewhat surprising to me, the difference in interest between Sheets and Burnett. I don't think Sheets has received any kind of multi-year offer, and here is Burnett signing for a deal until he's 36 at over $16M/year. Burnett has always been good when healthy, but never great. Sheets has as many full, healthy seasons as Burnett and has had a higher peak.
  6. kramnoj
    Has there been a Melvin move connected to the Rangers that has gone badly?
  7. kramnoj
    edit. I would hope that we'd acquire someone on Yo's level or better to slot in front of Parra, not someone vastly more expensive who would slot behind him, Parra is where I have my bar set. What are you willing to give up to get that talent?
  8. kramnoj
    What happens when a team doesn't sign their first round pick from the previous year? Do they get a sandwich pick or do they get that pick again in the next years draft? I only ask because I know the Yanks didn't sign their 19th pick from last years draft so they may have two first round picks. The Yankees do get a pick for not signing their 1st round pick last year. The pick they get this year for that is protected, it won't be lost as FA compensation. If the Brewers get the Yankees 1st round pick, it will be their normal pick.
  9. kramnoj
    The Brewers never made an offer to Sheets when his elbow was healthy. I get the sense that the Brewers wouldn't extend an offer to Sheets without seeing if he could make it healthy through a season. Even though Sheets put together a very good season with a good amount of IP, the fact that he wasn't there at the end may have crushed the chances of the Brewers offering a multi-year deal to Sheets.
  10. kramnoj
    If Teixeira, CC and Sheets all signed with the Yanks, I believe the Brewers would get the Yanks 2nd and 3rd round picks, and 2 sandwich picks. So obviously Brewer fans want the Angels to sign Teixiera and the Yankees to sign Burnett and Sheets to sign elsewhere (Braves maybe, after losing out on Burnett).
  11. kramnoj
    If I understand correctly, if Tex signs with the Yankees the Brewers get bumped from the Yankees first round pick and instead get their second round pick...correct? Teixeira was rated higher by the Elias player ratings, so Anaheim gets higher compensation.
  12. kramnoj
    I think it should be clear that the Brewers have absolutely no interest in signing Sheets to any multi-year contract. They were willing to go one year with arbitration, but that's it. They made no offer at all to Sheets to retain him before he was a free agent, and have made no effort to talk to him now to bring him back. Melvin has said that if CC doesn't come back, a SP will probably be acquired via trade, not FA. I think that is more deserving of discussion, but I guess it's too broad to really understand who would be available, and what it would take to get such a pitcher.
  13. kramnoj
    The whole problem is that we can't afford him at the end of the deal. I don't think one can say with certainty what the Brewers can afford 5 years from now. For one, they should have a new TV contract. We also don't know how many current players will be on the team 5 years from now. 5 years from now the Brewers could have cost controlled players at 3-4 positions in the IF, at C, 2-3 players in the OF, and 3 or more SP.
  14. kramnoj
    I don't think you can say that he can get a one year deal anytime, considering he doesn't have any offers right now. Sheets is probably going to have to wait until CC and Burnett sign before he has an understanding of what his market value will be.
  15. kramnoj
    I don't think there's anything to read in CC not meeting with Melvin. Hopefully they have developed some basic relationship. CC may want to meet with GMs of other teams just to get a basic feel from them. I don't think anybody is surprised that CC would prefer to play in California, but it certainly is odd that no California team has stepped up to make an offer. The Giants may not have the money and the LA teams are more interested in retaining hitters than going after CC.
  16. kramnoj
    UZR fielding data is now available at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/...ndex.php/uzr-on-fangraphs Brewer's data for 2008 can be seen here: http://www.fangraphs.com/...p;season=2008&month=0 Data is available back to 2002. It will be updated at least weekly during the 2009 season. I don't think any defensive stat yet is perfect, but I think they add to the conversation, and UZR being available is a good thing. For all this time, MGL kept all the data private, I believe so that he could sell the data to teams. He would release top players and bottom players, but this is the first time that I believe his data has been so readily available. Some of my own comments: Hardy does very well in UZR, especially compared to zone rating. MGL must make some adjustments that the standard ZR data doesn't pick up on. Cameron at 9.7 missing a month is quite good and about what fans of his would expect. Hall did well at 3B as some here have pointed out. Fielder is of course the worst Brewer with a -7.5. Doesn't seem horrible, but that does make him one of the worst defenders at 1B. Hart was rated negatively, but only at -.7. So he wasn't really bad in RF, but that certainly isn't an endorsement for Hart to take over in CF, as some here advocate.
  17. kramnoj
    UZR fielding data is now available at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/...ndex.php/uzr-on-fangraphs Brewer's data for 2008 can be seen here: http://www.fangraphs.com/...p;season=2008&month=0 Data is available back to 2002. It will be updated at least weekly during the 2009 season. I don't think any defensive stat yet is perfect, but I think they add to the conversation, and UZR being available is a good thing. For all this time, MGL kept all the data private, I believe so that he could sell the data to teams. He would release top players and bottom players, but this is the first time that I believe his data has been so readily available. Some of my own comments: Hardy does very well in UZR, especially compared to zone rating. MGL must make some adjustments that the standard ZR data doesn't pick up on. Cameron at 9.7 missing a month is quite good and about what fans of his would expect. Hall did well at 3B as some here have pointed out. Fielder is of course the worst Brewer with a -7.5. Doesn't seem horrible, but that does make him one of the worst defenders at 1B. Hart was rated negatively, but only at -.7. So he wasn't really bad in RF, but that certainly isn't an endorsement for Hart to take over in CF, as some here advocate.
  18. kramnoj
    Brad Nelson makes a fair amount of sense for the Mariners. Looking at the fresh ZiPs projections for the Mariners, Nelson would have the 2nd highest slugging % for 1B/DH after Branyan, meaning he would be a candidate to be a starting player for them. He's not a large upgrade over a couple of the guys they have, but I would rather have the next couple of years of Nelson than players like Craig Wilson or Jose Vidro. I wouldn't expect the Mariners to give up much for Nelson, but they would likely be a better team for having him.
  19. kramnoj
    The only way that Kennedy would have been traded for Cameron is if Cashman had been directed to do so by ownership. He didn't trade Hughes and Cabrera plus for Santana, there was no way he was going to trade Kennedy and Cabrera plus for Cameron.
  20. kramnoj
    I think people can focus on the NY media aspect too much. CC may not want to live in NY, or may not want to move his family to NY. It doesn't have to be about the media.
  21. kramnoj
    Has it been said that the Mariner's are looking to dump Beltre? Branyan's signing shouldn't effect Beltre at all. Right now, Branyan is the best player the Mariner's have to play 1B, and he might be better than any two corner OF that they have right now.
  22. kramnoj
    Not possible, it's virtually certain they'll non-tender him. Otherwise, they couldn't cut his salary more than 20%. There has been speculation that Capuano could agree to a smaller deal with Milwaukee and not go through arbitration and so wouldn't have to worry about the 20% rule. I doubt that any team is going to throw big money at a rehabbing pitcher right now, so Chris may agree to stick with Milwaukee for a small amount.
  23. kramnoj
    Passan brings up a point I read elsewhere today: Teams that are short on money may not value the draft picks that come with a Type A signing elsewhere. For a team like the DBacks they may not actually want to pay out the draft bonuses to 6 additional picks. Seems shortsighted, but if the owners don't have the extra cash and if it is harder to get credit lines to pay for those bonuses, it may be a risk some teams just don't want to make.
  24. kramnoj
    It's not even really a risk at $8 mil because the Brewers could just release him before the start of the season and not owe him anything. The player's union might not be too happy, but that's for them to worry about. Is this true? By "anything", do you mean the full amount? I thought that a player that had a contract was owed a certain amount (1/6 or 1/3 are sticking in my mind) if they were cut. What was the deal with Vargas last year, the Brewers had to pay him a certain amount when they cut him before the season. Would they have owed less, or nothing if they had cut him earler?
  25. kramnoj
    http://www.fangraphs.com/...type=3&season=2008&month= is a fun page to play with to look at relievers and value. It looks like the top relievers are usually worth 2.5-3.5 Wins based on the formulas used there.
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