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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    Lost a step? I didn't realize when you hit age 25 you start to decline. It doesn't matter what most people do at 25. It matters what Hardy is doing. And just to make an athletic comparison, tennis players peak before age 25, because so much relies upon first quick step. It wouldn't be unfathomable to say that Hardy has already lost a step. Yount was regarded as an elite prospect (& from day one, no less), Escobar is not. The rules are different for guys like Yount. It's very important for us to keep that in mind when discussing Escobar imo. Escobar is certainly regarded as elite prospect when it comes to his defensive capabilities. And that's the point I was making. To say that Escobar is not MLB ready and to totally ignore his defense makes no sense whatsoever. That ('75) was Yount's age 19 season. Yount-Escobar is apples to oranges. You specifically said that a player that is in the bottom third of starters offensively isn't MLB ready. You didn't put any qualifications on there, so age doesn't really matter to your statement.
  2. kramnoj
    Because play-by-play stats that look at the number of plays that SS makes and the plays that Hardy makes show that Hardy makes fewer plays than average. It's that simple. For those who don't trust available defensive stats can listen to scouts who observe that Hardy has lost a step defensively. It's not nitpicking to say that Hardy's range is below average. The job of a SS is to have a wide range to get to a lot of balls. Hardy's strengths right now are making plays on balls he gets to and a great arm. That's a great description for a 3B. Those strengths won't overcome a player whose range is inferior to others who play his position. A lot of Yankee fans refuse to believe that Jeter is inferior defensively because he makes the plays on balls he gets to, but they can't see that he gets to fewer balls than opponents SS. Hardy's range isn't so bad that it's noticeable in casual observation, but there is enough evidence out there to support that he isn't above average defensively.
  3. kramnoj
    Zone Rating shows that he is below average. I linked a study based on last year in the Stats forum that showed that Hardy was almost 12 runs below average last year. He's not bad enough that it's a worry, but there is enough evidence that I wouldn't be pushing for an extension.
  4. kramnoj
    He is leading NL shortstops in fielding percentage FP isn't really a great defensive stat. It only measures balls you get to. It doesn't measure how many plays you are making compared to other SS.
  5. kramnoj
    You have a valid point if the discussion was only about getting the most value out of a player compared to their expected peak while they are cost controlled. But that isn't where that conversation began. The conversation started with questioning whether Escobar is MLB ready and then the assertion that a player who is in the major leagues but in the bottom third of starters offensively isn't MLB ready. I think that is far too simplistic. Even if Escobar's peak was to only be in the bottom third of SS, his defense would make him a valuable player. And Hardy plays great D with an absolute gun of an arm. Hardy has a great arm, but he doesn't play great D, compared to other SS. He is probably below average. Not horrible, but not good either.
  6. kramnoj
  7. kramnoj
    The Mets were basically the only contenders for Santana at the end, as it appeared that the Yankees and Red Sox were out of it and no other team was willing to spend the money. There wasn't enough competition to drive up the cost of the prospects. There seems to be a fair amount of competition for CC, so it all depends on how desperate teams are in their pursuit of him.
  8. kramnoj
    I don't think anybody here is saying to bring up Escobar instead of Hardy right now. The main question is that it doesn't make sense to extend Hardy when we have a replacement who is capable of replacing him right now and Hardy isn't really a special player. Hardy is somewhere around average for a SS. He may be above average to good, we can see where he ranks after the season. Being in the bottom third of MLB isn't 'ready' -- just my tastes. Your taste would have prevented Yount from being in the majors when he was 20 years old. It doesn't make sense to look at offense and defense as separate components. It makes sense to look at the total expected contribution of the player, how much that player will be compensated for that, and how that all fits into building a roster with current talent, budget and available free agents and/or trades. It certainly wouldn't be horrible for Escobar to gain more seasoning in the minors next year. But if another team would trade an ace with Hardy as part of the package, I would certainly feel comfortable making that trade and having Escobar be the everyday SS.
  9. kramnoj
    If I could get a 3 for Hardy/Weeks + Gillespie + Nelson, I think I would do that.
  10. kramnoj
    Escobar's MLE according to a new tool from the creator of ZiPS based on the season so far is .304/.325/.396. That would give him the 20th highest OPS among qualified SS this year. He is ML ready now based on what the quality of major leagues SS currently are. I don't want to see Escobar waste a year of MLB service time when he can only manage (to use PrimeTime's BA example) a .250/.300/.350 line. That's not what you originally said. You questioned whether he would be ML ready in Opening Day 2009. Anyway, this thread isn't about Escobar. I only bring him up because I think it would be a mistake to tie up resources in Hardy long-term.
  11. kramnoj
    I think he's MLB ready now. I guess it depends on what you expect. I certainly think the Crew would be better off with Escobar as an everyday player right now over Hall, which was my point.
  12. kramnoj
    Hardy has two years of arbitration left. IMO, Hardy is not a guy to sign. He has shown above average offense at short, but he is not above average defensively. He is not a star, and I don't expect him to be a star. Contract extensions are best reserved for stars, as opposed to just average or above average players. Add that Escobar could step in next year and be a valuable player for the minimun, I don't think an extension makes sense for JJ. If Hall doesn't regain his form, I think it would be interesting to see Escobar at SS and Hardy at 3B next year (or vice versa).
  13. kramnoj
    I am glad someone mentioned this. I think he had a few good starts, then goes back down to the minors and goes on the DL. Why is he such a hot commodity? He hasn't had a lot of professional experience, but he has put up some incredible numbers so far: http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=32466
  14. kramnoj
    ZR currently has Hardy as 20th among qualified SS. That puts him below Hanley Ramirez, so I won't put full weight behind that, but it is something to consider. Runs Created has Hardy as 14th among SS and he has the 6th highest OPS among SS (last night obviously helped, he's just ahead of Jimmy Rollins right now). I would say he's basically in the middle tier, as has already been said. Just putting some numbers behind it.
  15. kramnoj
    Prince Fielder's line would be .271/.358/.488/.846 with 32 HR's and 84 RBI's. That is a pretty good line. But not really for a first baseman. Prince's OPS is 10th among 1B. If you look at a stat that incorporates playing time like RC, he is 8th. So he is performing at a rate above the average for first baseman this year. Add into the fact that his defense is a major liability in the field and one might say that Prince Fielder has actually hurt this team more than he has helped it half way through the season. I seriously doubt that you can support that. Prince is providing great value to the team this year. The fact that much of it comes from not swinging his bat makes him appear less valuable to some than the triple crown stats of HR and RBI.
  16. kramnoj
    The main issue is that a playoff appearance will have a huge positive impact on the franchise for the next 3-4 years. What impact will that be? Attendance will certainly go up next year if this year's team goes to the playoffs, but I don't see fans two years from now buying tickets based on making a playoff appearance this year. Playoffs would give us a tremendous amount of additional revenue which could be used to go after free agents or foreign players who could have an immediate impact in 2009. It could give us money to sign Fielder and Hart--prospects can't do that. I'm not sure that's true. It all depends on how far they make it. MLB gets a cut of the ticket revenue. As far as money and prospects, there is a monetary benefit in prospects in that their bonus has been paid for by another team.
  17. kramnoj
    At which position, and who do you think would be available? I don't even know if the Brian Roberts thing is still available, as the Os currently have a winning record. Someone in the transactions forum mentioned Grudz from the Royals. He probably would be the best available upgrade.
  18. kramnoj
    At which position, and who do you think would be available? I don't even know if the Brian Roberts thing is still available, as the Os currently have a winning record. Someone in the transactions forum mentioned Grudz from the Royals. He probably would be the best available upgrade.
  19. kramnoj
    At which position, and who do you think would be available? I don't even know if the Brian Roberts thing is still available, as the Os currently have a winning record. Someone in the transactions forum mentioned Grudz from the Royals. He probably would be the best available upgrade.
  20. kramnoj
    I'm more interested in the success he had against righties, which would be his key role. He basically gave up 4 HR in 19 AB against lefties. He didn't give up any doubles, he didn't walk any of them. I think it's fairly harsh to judge him based on 4 events. As far as non-pressure situations, who would you rather see in a pressure situation Gagne or DeFelice? After all, DeFelice only had a .333 OPS allowed vs righties in his 36 ABs against them.
  21. kramnoj
    The Twins have drawn 1.7-2.3 million since 2001, which has been 8-10th in attendance in the AL. They seem to be right on target to meet that this year. I've been to one game at the dome. It wasn't really fun, and made me appreciate MP all the more. We even had a mouse run behind our seats! I don't know that a new stadium is going to increase attendance, but it will increase the revenue the Twins get, and that is presumably what they care about the most.
  22. kramnoj
    How does MLB award playoff appearances again? Wasn't it by won-loss record? Oh yeah, that's right. Bullox, your post is non-responsive. The post was clear in saying that some of the talent on the Cubs is outperforming expectations and shouldn't be expected to keep it up, thus the record won't be maintained.
  23. kramnoj
    Are you telling me places like Tiger stadium and Fenway are pitcher friendly? I don't see the point of what the parks have anything to do with what you are arguing... Well, you mention only two visiting parks, so I'm not sure this is much of an argument. But I included park effects because I wanted to be accurate in describing what adjusting for context means. Comparing Yount and Braun is much more important to look at the context of the run environment in which they played. As an extreme example, an average player who played where Yount played in 1981 had an OBP of .314! Yount's OBP that year was .312, so he was below average that year, but he made up for it by slugging .419 when an average player only slugged .364! Edit: Both of these statements are wrong. Ozzie Smith had an above average on base percentage for his career. Not just above average for position, but above league average. Regarding Yount, you should really check out his career, especially 1982 http://www.baseball-reference.com/y/yountro01.shtml That year Yount's OPS+ was 166 compared to Braun's 153 OPS+ last year. Yount in 82 had a line of .331/.379/.578. That would be a very good line today, especially for an up-the-middle player. It is quite amazing when you realize that an average player only had a line of .257/.320/.392.
  24. kramnoj
    Of course, Gagne's rehab stint lasted 3 days (unless the clock was already running before his first AAA appearance). By my count, that leaves 27 more days they could have let him rot down there if he continued to stink. And really, if he hasn't gotten it together by the end of that month, why not just release him at that point? The other point here is that the player has to agree with the rehab assignment. I think it's fairly clear that Gagne wouldn't allow himself to stay down longer. If he feels he's ready and the team keeps him there, Gagne probably has the union appeal. I don't know what actual penalties the team would face, but it's probably something they just want to avoid.
  25. kramnoj
    Are you familiar with baseball-reference.com, the best website ever? An average player who played in the parks and in the offensive conditions that Yount played in had a .326 OBP, meaning Yount's was 16 points higher. For Braun, the average player is .341 compared to his .353, so his is 12 points higher. Also, his career OBP is dragged down by his first few years in the league, when he was a below average offensive player.
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