kramnoj

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_well_can_we_project_team_defense_and_other_uzr_data/ displays UZR for the teams as whole and best at worst at each position. The Brewers as a team are at -15 so far (MGL had projected they would be at -12 at this point). Best and worst Brewers: Fielder at -16 (5th worst) Hall at -20 (4th worst) Cameron at +40! (best) Some comments: I knew that Hall wasn't as good this year, but I had no idea he was this bad. Weeks doesn't make it into the bottom 5. Braun has definitely taken well to LF. We don't know where he is, but he isn't among the worst. There isn't a UZR for catcher, so we don't have a rating for Kendall. Edit: The individual numbers are on a rate basis. In the comments, where rluzinski and JoeHova make appearances, it is noted that Hardy is at -16 (worse than Jeter!).

No way he only has 1.146 years of service. He was on the roster all of 2007 and 2008, plus 1/3rd of 2006 and 2005. The 1.146 is the number before 2008 and is listed at Cots. I believe the site gets the info from media guides.

your statement that hits are overrated confuses me. Well, what about it confuses you? Hits are overrated by many. It has the lowest correlation to runs scored of AVG, OBP and SLG. Juan Pierre is a .300 career hitter, and is now a replacement player on offense.

I didn't realize "milestones" was spelled H-I-T-S. I really don't understand what you are saying. You think reaching a milestone is better than having the kind of career that Mantle and Gehrig had? If you could somehow choose the path of Braun's career, would you choose Yount or one of Gehrig/Mantle?

I think this is a great way to show how over-rated hits are. Gehrig is one of the all time greatest hitters, and only had 2721 hits. Of course, he had 1508 walks. Mantle had 2415 hits and 1733 walks!

I have heard/read Yost say that he doesn't like to rest his players in front of the home fans, that he will give more days off to his regulars on the road. Obviously, he sometimes rests them at home, so it's more of a guideline. Anyway, I wonder if Yost rests his regulars on the road more than the average manager? Could be one explanation. Of course, I would think most managers would think the same way, but I don't feel like doing the research and I don't know how that information could be easily gathered.

I just rarely read anything TH writes that I didn't already know by watching the game myself. So there are times that he writes something you didn't know. That's his job, and it sounds like he is successful. A game report isn't really intended for someone who watched the game and could watch the post-game. If you don't get anything out of those, it's hard to blame TH for that. Read his "game report" from last night's game. Losing an hour because of the time difference makes it even harder to produce quality work before the deadline. don't care of TH is "tough" on Yost or not, I just want some decent reporting and we don't have that with the MJS. What are the things that you feel that you are missing that the JS and TH specifically should be providing to you?

I have never said being a beat writer is easy. It was the term stressful I found to be extremely inaccurate. Well, if something isn't easy, doesn't that imply that there's a certain amount of stress involved? Besides, stress is often more about the individual than the job. Being an air-traffic controller or a 911 dispatcher would be incredibly stressful for many, but for the right individual, they can handle the job better. I doubt that TH finds his job stressful in that he's constantly worrying about his job security. But he is under pressure to find things to blog about, soemthing that writers didn't have to do years ago. That alone adds stress to his job, especially considering how much flak he got for the Yost firing issue.

to say that being a beat writer is stressful is about the most inane thing I've ever seen here on this board. If you think writing about baseball is stressful, you have no idea what the word means. Do you think you have a good handle on how much work is involved in being a beat writer? How many hours a day do you think they work, or in a typical week? Being on call if a story breaks, being on the road for 2.5-3 months out of the year. Being able to write a different game story on an extremely short time crunch. Cultivating relationships with players, coaching staff, front office personnel. Stressful may not the most descriptive word, but this isn't a job that's easy and it doesn't allow one to have much of a family life.

The Brewers only have to release Weaver if he requests it, correct? Is there any indication that other teams are going to be offering Weaver a major league job if the Brewers don't call him up?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1294 is the best in-depth look at baseball finances that I have seen. It is over six years old, but I still think it's a great read. The info is from the 2001 season. Obviously today's numbers are different, but I haven't seen anybody tackle these issues since. In 2001, the Brewers had $46 million in ticket revenue with an attendance of 2.8 million. They got only $5.9 million in local media revenue. They got $24.4 million in national TV money. They got $37 million in stadium revenue other than tickets (8th highest that year). The payroll that year was $51 million. The Brewers spent $47.8 million on non-player expenses. Their total operating revenue was $113.5 million. The article says that the team made $14.385 million and got $1.7 million in revenue sharing, meaning they were the most profitable team that year with $16.129 million.

Of course he can be resigned, but it wouldn't make sense to tie up the kind of money and year that Sheets is likely to command. Let's say that Sheets will get $18 million/year for 4 years. How would you spend that money and get better value for the Brewers? Sheets is a star. You overpay for stars because of their scarcity (to a certain degree of course). If the Brewers can sign Sheets to what they consider a reasonable deal, you do it and figure out the rest later. You don't worry about being able to afford players who haven't proven to be stars like Hardy, Weeks, Bush, etc. They are more easily replaced with younger players or short term contracts for veterans. If Sheets goes, we won't be able to replace his value at lesser or even equal money.

The idea that Prince has to be traded to open up a spot for LaPorta is ridiculous. I don't know that anyone is saying that. I think that people are saying that it's better to trade Prince for prospects than to let him walk for draft picks. The fact that there are prospects (Gamel as well as LaPorta) that will be ready to be major league hitters when Prince leaves is a plus.

So we should trade him in the hope that we can some day have 1 out of the 5-6 players we might get in return reach close to that level? R HR RBI BB AVG OPS 105 50 119 90 .288 1.013 Just a reminder of what he did in just his second year in the big leauges. You're not just trading him for prospects. You are also opening up his position for a young Brewer that can step in and project to provide an approximation of what Fielder has done in years other than last year at a much lower cost. I'm not sure why you felt the need to post Fielder's stats from last year as a reminder. Do you really feel there are fans here who don't know what he did last year? The issue isn't what he did last year. There are a couple of issues: 1. He will be making a lot more money starting next year, meaning his production/$ will certainly go down, which is something that the Brewers need to consider. 2. He will be under control for only 3 more years. In the current market, you get more value for a player in a trade if he is under control for two years, as opposed to one year, or even half a year, and you would like to get more value in a trade than you would get from two draft picks (it's also better because if you are trading for prospects, you have more information on how close they are to the majors than a typical draftee and you get the extra value of not paying out bonus money to draftees that bust). Basically, the Brewers have to at least be considering what Fielder's current value is, what his future value is, and should act when his value is highest. It is possible that time will be this offseason. 3. Fielder's conditioning. Fielder is a big guy, and big guys often break down, especially as they get older. In addition to the fact that Fielder will become more expensive, his size will lead to more of an injury risk. Just one more consideration while determining his future value. 4. His projected performance. You bring up last year's record performance. Is that his true talent level, an early peak, a career year, a fluke, etc. Right now, his career averages are .280/.369/.535. How much better can he expect to perform on a recurring basis? His BA might be a little higher, his OBP could be higher by up to 30 points, and he should be able to slug .575 or so. A very valuable player indeed. I don't think there's a question that he will be valuable, just a question of what that value actually will be. Basically, most people don't expect Fielder to be in Milwaukee when he hits FA. Whether that's because the Brewers won't commit huge dollars in a lengthy deal to a big guy that will probably get bigger, or because he will leave for more money, or because he just doesn't want to stay here. Working on the assumption that he won't be here in 4 years, you then need to determine how you want that exit to occur. If you can trade him for prospects, promote a prospect in the system to perfom close to Fielder's average production, and save money, that sounds like a win-win-win. The only remaning question is when to make that move. It may be this offseason, it may be after next year. If there weren't prospects in the system destroying the ball, I doubt this would be as much of an issue. But there are and for some it's fun to think about the future and all the pieces that could make the puzzle of future teams. I think the biggest change is that rather than just enjoying a star and watching them leave, we now have a team that has minor league depth and we can look forward to replacing the major league talent that moves on.

I know that players want to play, but this team is on such a roll right now. Hall doesn't look like much of a team player with this action. He's got a guaranteed contract for a couple of years, it's not like being platooned this year is going to make him suffer financially. Disappointing move as far as I'm concerned.

The chart that is shown lists 8 in that situation.

I think it would be interesting to see how the defenses played Counsell in those situations. Did the defense play in, so that it was easier for Counsell to get a hit? I think that has to be taken into account with a smallish # of PAs.

I don't think you'll find a team giving up a #4 starter for Bill Hall and Tony Gwynn. If you can find a taker, sure, absolutely do it. You've laid out a good case for why they are so expendable to the Brewers. What teams do you think would be willing to give up a valuable pitcher for players that aren't that useful to a .500 club?

I think that's an overstatement based on some messageboard posters. He's not really arrogant. He's just so confident that he sometimes crosses the line to cockiness. I think there is a difference.

Zito's career ERA is 3.73, but it's been higher than that every year since 2004. He's not that pitcher anymore. He is getting worse at just about every meaningful statistic. He was essentially a league average pitcher last year, and he's below replacement so far this year. I would't want any part of him with the contract length that he has. I wonder if the Brewers would have thought about offering a package for Santana if they had known he was going to be traded for the package he did. Of course, Santana probably woudn't have signed long-term with Milwaukee, so that probably doesn't matter.

know it's been mentioned before, but BP rates the Brewers "collapse" as the 40th biggest in history. Something that happens once every 3 years or so doesn't seem that significant to me. If Ben Sheets doesn't get hurt last season, the Brewers are in the playoffs. There isn't much doubt in my mind there. They just got into some bad luck when that happened, and played terribly when he was out.

I don't think he's high on the list right now. Voters love them wins. At the end of the year, if he ends up with a decent amount of wins, continues to do well in the ERA department and strikes out a bit more, he coulld find himself in the running.

But it's more than just what Ben makes this year. First-time arbitration-eligible players like Hardy and Prince are going to get quite the bumps in salary, as well as Corey and my boy, Bush. Did you read my entire post? I explained how arb increases could be covered. True, I didn't mention Bush, but I don't think it's likely that Bush will get much of an increase unless he dramatically improves, and if he does, you can adjust for that by giving him the money that you are paying Tunrbow this year.

The Twins had no desire to give Johan $17M to Johan, and the Crew won't with Ben. I don't think that's true. I think the Twins were willing to match the money, but weren't willing to match the length (I imagine a similar scenario with Sheets and the Brewers). Plus, I don't think Johan wanted to re-sign.

Your logic seems to leave the Brewers without any cause to make a trade ever. If they're winning, then that means they're pitching, so why make a trade. If they're losing, why make a trade because they're losing anyway. This misses a key point of what I wrote. You already repeated what I said, but missed what I wanted to convey. If the team is pitching well, but needs a bat, you trade for a bat. If a team that isn't getting good starting pitching improves their record by having their own pitchers perform better, how is trading for a league average pitcher going to improve them? They won't be winning enough games to get back in the race unless their own pitchers start performing like league average. If the Brewers pitching improves and the team is in the race and a pitcher gets injured, sure a trade for Washburn makes sense to keep them in the race. But if Parra and Bush get back to being the better pitchers they have been, the need for Washburn decreases. I guess it depends on what you're giving up to get him.