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Everything posted by pete
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His twitter handle sounds like something Melvin would like, #outtadapakmark
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To the first graph, your equivalencies aren't remotely close. The 2nd and the supporting material is loaded with assumptions including Lawrie blossoming, staying healthy and not struggling with being wound too tight as well as a 5'9" A ball SS "seeming" like a major leaguer when the attrition rate for similar profiles is probably greater than 80 percent. Both those pitchers probably have a greater chance of being relievers and they might not both succeed at it. And another genius move? The guy is constantly churning players. There should be a long list somewhere at a tribute website.
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After his season goes South again, some A's fan should photoshop his head into this scene: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/AlmonJello/brett-pulp-fiction.jpg
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He saves a little money, gets an extra year of control with Lawrie and picks up some other pieces, none of which seem significant. Maybe he's trying to replenish the farm while still competing? I sure dunno.
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I only really follow baseball, so that's a limiting factor. There really isn't much baseball talk a lot of the time so I actually listen to a couple baseball podcasts. I used to love the Bucks and haven't been able to rekindle my interest, but it seems like time for another try. With that said, I just surf but spend a lot of time listening to WSCR and the ESPN affiliate out of Chicago with the exception of Boers and Bernstein - BF rules prohibit me expressing how I feel about them. The 920 guys here are cool but they rarely talk baseball. Homer is losing it mentally. I pretty much never agree with Bill Michaels. Ellerson's answer to everything baseball is trade prospects, get aces. When I listen to Squeaky, oops, I mean Sparky I sometimes think it must ba an act. He's just trying to juice ratings, but then I listen for a while and go back to thinking he's... I don't even know how to describe it. But has anyone heard Michaels when he goes postal on a caller? He starts screaming, tells the producer to cut them off, calls them an idiot several times as well as other things. I don't know why but it just seems comical to me.
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I remember seeing scouting reports that talked about him being toolsy and a potential plus defender. He was a first round pick and he's very fast. Later I saw ones that weren't so positive about his play at 2nd talking about things like footwork. And of course there are lots of scouts who think he isn't reaching his potential because of his attitude. Maybe those are exaggerated or poor interpretation of things like body language, but they aren't uncommon. To complicate it he was moved to the OF. At least part of the reason was that he had been requesting for it to happen. i don't know how the Altuve factor influences that. I've seen him described as adequate in the OF and questionable as a CF. And of course, is he going to hit? Remember, Schafer wasn't awful in the minors. Like Logan, Delino would likely go a couple weeks at a time without a start and a couple PHs against late inning relievers. He had a nice slash line 2 seasons ago but was awful this last one. And then someone has to be the BU SS, 3B and whatever at 1st. But the stake through the heart is that what you or I think doesn't count and I think they want Hector Gomez to succeed - he's got the glove, don't know about the bat and maybe I'm wrong but I think Roenicke loves Elian Herrera. He is versatile. I did a quick scan of Valera on MLB and he was described as a steady and unspectacular fielder, versatile and with a pretty remarkable lack of power. I think even if you are correct - that they are plus defenders and decent in the OF and assuming they take well to the sporadic at bats, I think the org wouldn't take them because of the problem of needing 3 bench infielders. I think Gennett is a very good defender and I get the sense that the org thinks so as well although that's with the danger of needing to read between the lines some. Do you disagree?
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The time lost last season was to a "lisfranc sprain," but the season before the foot sustained the lisfranc fracture. That's 2 seasons in a row where recovery included not putting weight on the foot (crutches?) for 6 weeks or more. He was never the most athletic guy to start with. He's also had a screw put into his knee to repair a fracture. I wouldn't describe myself as well informed about the health topics involved, but it seems risky and while many fans (and I'd guess Melvin as well) don't want to test some of the fringy guys in the minors like Rogers, not using them is essentially giving up on them as he can't keep them in the minors forever.
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DeShields isn't a plus defender and not much of a hitter, same with Valera. They'd also have to overcome the same thing that Schafer has dealt with, rare and inconsistent playing time. It'd be interesting if there was a "split" stat that showed PH or single at bats in a game, because not many players do well. Getting Pena off the 40 makes me think that something is up though.
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The media is as much of a factor in stardom as performance. Maybe you guys are right and adding sizzle will be a winning strategy for the variety of reasons cited. From a strict winning and losing, pitching and hitting point, i don't think many of the big FA contracts are that positive. I'm not sure they're all that great even in the front end years. It seems like the thing to do when your alternative is flat out bad. When the alternative is guys like Fiers, the idea of paying someone 50 times his salary and then guaranteeing it for 6 years seems somewhere between ludicrous and insane to me. I suppose there is no sizzle factor and that's a powerful thing. Ditto for a guy like Hanley with his medical file that might be bigger than mine. (Hint: I like watching Turner Classic Movies and I've used a rotary phone). If Vegas had a prop bet on over/under the number of games he averages per season of his new contract and set it at, let's say 115, who takes the over? I'd be really surprised if Melvin doesn't do something. His "we're ready" comment or whatever it was is his usual poker talk.
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2014 Arizona Fall League / Caribbean Winter League Thread
pete replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
When Alcides was with the Cardenales de Lara, I was stumbling around with Spanish links trying to find info and I came across a site with videos. They had ones of the streets around the stadium as well as the festivities inside along with baseball action. It was cuh-raz-eee with bands and partying and wildness. -
For what its worth, I recall a broadcast or maybe a radio interview where Melvin said he gets calls on Maldonado all the time, but the offers weren't enough to motivate him. I think he hits pretty well with regular playing time. I do confess that it amazes and amuses me when he bunts for hits.
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Party at Rob's place!
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I hate the idea of Scherzer. I wonder how long he's going to be a top performer. I don't like the idea, but James Shields seems like a Melvin move to me. Free up enough payroll by trading Lohse or Gallardo and get him a bit cheaper than the top tier. Other than polling which never happens, there isn't a way I can think of to measure the fanbase, but that seems to be what many want and why they like Melvin. I read MNBrew's comment on attitudes toward prospects as hyperbole, exaggeration for effect. I think the comment minus the hyperbole is about right. Just in this thread you hear a recitation of prospects that I get the sense the expectation is for a very high success rate of not only becoming MLB players but stars while the Brewers outside of the last draft class are usually not even worth mentioning. I wonder if Huntington had a choice between Austin Meadows or Clint Coulter who he would take or Hanson and Arcia. What Keith Law imagines doesn't matter. The Brewers had a bunch of injuries last season. I sure wouldn't call them lucky. Its almost easier to list guys who weren't injured than go through all the ones that were. Lucroy was the only position player starter I believe - maybe Overbay if he counts. I don't think other teams are unlucky if Molina of a million innings caught or Wainwright of a million innings pitched or Cueto with his injury history and Tiant twist or Votto because his problem is his knee - any of them are injured.
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Does anyone still make a plasma? They also generate a fair amount of heat and use more power if that matters. Video and tvs is one of those topics where the more I learn the less I know. There are a lot of considerations relating to color, motion, contrast and what not that aren't obvious or available at all from their spec sheets or most reviews. Tooling through forums and listening to podcasts, the tv that sounds like an excellent performer at a great price is the Vizio P series. Sony is supposed to be excellent quality but costs more to get it. Personally, I wouldn't buy a Samsung because of the kind of company they are but that's about my views not performance. Things I want in my next tv; local dimming - actually I'm watching edge lit and its still a nice picture for most things, but it struggles with dark scenes where contrast is lost and movie directors feel compelled to have a few in most movies, plus people go on about it good motion performance - It starts with a 120 or 240 hertz refresh rate but the hardware and software affect it. I think some tvs have a higher horsepower chip. good upscaling - DVDs of which there are many that are only available at that resolution will look different on a 1080P depending on how well it upscales. Same story with bluray up to 4K or I guess DVD up to 4K. While there isn't a lot of 4K content, getting the best performance may come from buying a few of the new 4K tvs. Barring a steal of a deal, I think I might go for a Vizio P series in Spring.
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Adam LaRoche to White Sox - 2yrs - $25 mil
pete replied to Bombers's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I would have been ok with them going with whoever stands out among the small village of mystery 1st base possibilities they already have (only guy in the fanbase with that view?), but at least Lind offers some big upside. He rakes against RH pitching and even if it wasn't because of a platoon, he ought to sit once a week or so. -
I know I'm in a minority, probably a small one, but I think things are looking pretty good. It's a fairly young team and despite the same prospect evaluation crowd dissing the farm system, it keeps producing players. I remember when Gennett was something like the 9th best 2nd base prospect. I wish I could remember all the guys ahead of him but i noticed that Delino DeShields Jr was just DFA'd. Jedd Gyorko is an ok player and I could see him having a big power season some time. Wong came on strong toward the end of the season and is looking like a nice player. But its the same old, same old. For a long time Peralta was a future reliever. Fiers isn't an MLB player. I know a lot of people don't like Mayo's prospect evaluations, but the MLB prospect site is an easy way to tool through them by team or position. Yes everyone is fawning over the Cubs and Pirates, but take a look at their systems. They aren't incredible. Arrieta looks great for the Cubs, but they're going to be spending a lot on pitching. Brewers fans should know what an adventure that can be. I got sick of hearing how awesome the Cardinals OF inventory was with guys like Grichuk and Piscotty, but they don't seem so great and then Mozeliak ships off their former #1 prospect in baseball for 1 year of a nice player. Sunny, optimistic (distance from realistic, unknown and up for debate) view - Taylor eventually takes over for Gogo. Nelson takes a step forward and Jungmann becomes a BOR to MOR pitcher. Other than 3rd which is more of a hot topic, what else do they need other than having 1 out 3 or 4 pitchers to turn out? Cards are going to lose Holliday, Molina and Wainwright are old and declining. Peralta could be Yuni any time. Maybe Lynn is really a great pitcher and Wacha isn't going to suffer from his weird shoulder issue, but still they aren't that deep or powerful. Pirates got great returns from their flyers on Liriano and Volquez who are both likely gone and they don't have immediate replacements. They got an outrageous career year from Martin. He's gone. Josh Harrison was an MVP candidate! I'm thinking that's not going to happen again. Walker has only a year or two left and will be gone or cost a lot. The optimism for Taillon post surgery and Glasnow might not be realistic. They've got plenty of challenges ahead of them. Cubs are really pitching thin. Yes they've got a lot of hitting prospects, so many that the inevitable failures may not matter much. I could see them being the team to beat as soon as next season, but I could also see Theo fattening up their payroll. Reds are in a world of hurt. I thought for sure they would go for it next season and not trade anyone of significance, but things might be coming apart before then. They could reload quickly if they sell off guys like Chapman and Cueto at the deadline. In my opinion, and again its probably a small minority, they are on the threshold of being in a great situation IF they avoid almost all FAs and all big dollar ones and they give some of their young players a shot. Getting back to Melvin and Mark A., my sense is that they both don't feel comfortable with that approach and would rather go with more FAs.
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I can't really see a trade with Arizona. I just hope they don't send a nice prospect package for Somejarsofza.
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Don't really feel well enough informed about it to have a strong opinion Mass, but is it a lot different than other years? Gindl and Wooten may have been told they're first up and/or some other encouragement. My general sense is that Melvin likes to have emergency backups to emergency backups to emergency backups and will still trade prospects before using them. Whether they're a better player or not is always skewed by Melvin's valuation of "experience." There are some players who may in reality have no reasonable chance to play on the MLB team. I'd guess Halton and Green are in that category. If Morris has another mediocre season, I'd guess he moves into that category as well.
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I just don't see Overbay riding the pine as much as you guys think. If he does one downside is he'll probably be Roenicke's go to guy for pinch hits given (insert your choice of cliche here). And if he does and they burn the roster spot for that, its compounded by the way 2B is handled. I keep telling myself that its to move Weeks eventually and its not just because I'm not a fan. If they're all charged up thinking this is finally the year and they're screwing around with plate appearances, I hope he files a grievance and wins. They have a very capable backup to 2B already. If they're not marketing Weeks, send Gennett to AAA.
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The comments from Melvin and Roenicke on Halton were both pretty blah. They might have both yawned after making them. I'd guess he's earned Melvin's emergency player if the emergency BU to the emergency FA all go down. I kinda like him. I think people look at his slash line with all those early season rookie pinch hits and think he sucks. It'd be great if one or more of them really does well this season. Melvin did make a comment about seeing if one of them grabs the opportunity or some phrase like that, but I wouldn't be surprised if Reynolds or Overbay has a pretty good couple months or so and gets an extension during the season. I know it sounds crazy. I know I'm cynical. I think it would totally fit them.
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Besides from watching games, if you look at the game logs for Yuni from last year, you will see a number of ph-1b or just 1b with only 1-2 innings. Both of those substitutions were cases where he came in for Juan at the end of games last year. Yuni B was a defensive replacement for Francisco. I watched the games as well. I just don't see it. If those facts are correct it still wouldn't support the conclusion. Roenicke loves his double switches and knifey spooney match ups and all things small ball.
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I wonder if Weeks has been shopped and nobody is willing to give anything significant in return and its like it was with Dave Bush when Melvin shopped him and was shocked that nobody wanted him. Melvin loves him and they could be in wait and see mode while they carefully watch his plate appearances. Roenicke says the 2B who is doing better will play. If it was true it would be terrible managing. They obviously can't have a platoon because then Weeks would play so little. Maybe its GM poker where he's just holding his cards hoping the price goes up when Rickie does well, but it could be he's thinking his dream of a player he believes is a superstar finally doing it.

