bill hAll Star

I can paint a scenario as to how the Brewers vastly underachieve this year: -Anderson is the guy he seems to be now. Fringe MLB starter. -Nelson is nothing special even if he returns. -Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta struggle as "starters" because they are not as effective when they need to go longer. -We do not have Woodruff and Burnes coming up as bullpen guys later in the year to save the day so the stout bullpen goes 3 or 4 deep. -I'd even throw Chacin in there as a regression candidate. Of course probably not all of these things happen. But say a lot of them do, which is definitely possible. Now we have a team that is a good offense but can't get as many games to the elite part of the bullpen. Given less depth, we also are not able to leverage the matchups as nicely and get blown away in some games where teams get to our lesser bullpen. Still a good enough offense but we only win 85 and miss the Wild Card by 2 games.

Here we are and the Brewers have made most of these additions (outside of Keuchel) and yet Las Vegas is offering a line that is 7 or 8 games lower than last year's win total. I am an optimist on Stearns so I'd probably bet over on that because the Brewers will generally find ways to overachieve. However, the theory that, "we won 95 (or 96 if you count the tiebreaker) last year and added guys so we'll do even better" can be debunked by the fact that nobody at this very moment will make the sound investment of selling off all assets and putting $200k on the Brewers because it is so obvious. The Brewers went 33-19 last year in 1 run games. They're built for that as I said, but make it still "good" at 29-23 and suddenly they're playing a playoff game just to get into the Wild Card.

This has been a constant refrain that a lot of things broke right for the Brewers and I am just trying to figure out what all those things were. Davies got hurt. Nelson missed the whole year. Anderson regressed. Miley missed part of the season. Thames was hurt and then ineffective. Pina missed time. Arcia was terrible for most of the year and Sogard and the rest of the replacements werent good either. Albers got hurt. Knebel missed time. What were all the things that broke right? -Christian Yelich likely isn't HGH era Barry Bonds yet we got half a season of it out of him. -Cain was healthy and played well all year on the wrong side of 30. I know he's "different" but there's definitely a chance of him falling off. -Other than a Knebel hiccup, the "big 3" in the bullpen pitched lights out all year. -Aguilar regressed late in the year but they got a pretty dominant out of him. -The Brewers won a lot of close games. That is how they're constructed - to do exactly that...but luck can still go against them there. I'm neither an optimist nor a pessimist on what they'll do this year (I truly have no idea) but it can go either way. If one fairly pegs the Brewers at 87 or 88 wins last year and this year, there's a pretty equal chance of winning 93 or 82 games. I do trust that Stearns runs things well enough that the Brewers will generally overachieve but I'm basically here to disagree with the, "well, we did really well last year so adding Keuchel and Grandal will make things better" argument.

Foolish on him being really good again... okey-dokey Pitching is hard enough without any structural damage to a shoulder. I'm not saying it can't happen, but acting like it's going to happen is incredibly optimistic no matter what he says. I don't care for gambling at all, but if I did and my money was on the line, no way I'd bet on him bouncing back completely. And to add to that, Nelson had one really good year. Great, it seemed like he had turned the corner. But as we're seeing with Chase Anderson, what if that version of Jimmy Nelson was actually the aberration. So now we're talking about a pitcher that we aren't even sure yet was that good and now take a few MPH off or give him less confidence in a pitch and I'm unfortunately skeptical. It has nothing to do with him. Seems like a hard-working/good guy and he definitely could be better than ever. But the odds of it happening are low in my opinion. I'm in expect the worst, hope for the best mode. It's not impossible for him to come back and be really good but I will treat it as unlikely so as not to be too disappointed.

At which point you are deep into fantasyland. It's very unlikely, but maybe the Royals want to save some money and commit to a long-term rebuild. "Organizational depth" can mean a wide range of prospect quality, and they might be able to cobble something together. More importantly, I mostly meant that it would make more sense from the Brewers' perspective than trading away Pina. I think the issue here is that depending on the timing of this, you're paying 3 years, $39 million (only to actually reap the benefits of the final 2 years) for a guy that most of his value comes on the defensive side coming off of arm issues. The Royals would probably have to kick in $6-7 million per year to make this work.

No kidding Regardless of tax rates and cost of living amounts in whatever city, Harper will make almost 400 million for his career. Let the number sink in. 400 million dollars. That's incredible wealth. He could live very comfortably just on interest of that wealth if done smartly. I get your point but after taxes and after paying his agent (is it 3% or 6%?) it's more like $155 million or thereabouts. Still, your point remains. He could invest not smartly and still live off interest. Yeah, so obviously he could afford any house in any market, BUT it would take a little bit less out to buy a $4-5 million regular season home on Lake Drive or a palace in Oconomowoc as compared to $15-$20 million for a beachside mansion (which he will probably buy anyways) in LA. Using Milwaukee as an example because I don't know Philly that well, which would be a bit more expensive, of course.

According to Aaron Gleeman the Twins payroll is currently at $117 million for this season. Last year their payroll was $128 million. The Indians lack of impactful moves has left the door open for the Twins to try to make a run at the AL Central title. The Twins have been in a 2-3 offseason stretch of, "let's sign some 1-2 year deals and test the waters." You're right that Cleveland's quiet offseason has left the door open but the Twins may have to spend $50 million more this year to really be a factor. Throw Cleveland in the NL Central or the NL East and even with their laughable outfield I bet they'd still probably win the division or at least be very close. Throw the Twins in the NL Central and they win 71 games. Right now Cleveland is projected to win the division by 10 games and that doesn't even really include that they're probably just waiting until the deadline to acquire actual MLB players in the outfield. There could be a giant tortoise and hare thing here where ownership isn't going to burn $15 million dollars this year to win the division by 15 games instead of 10 and it actually costs them the division...but there is still a massive hurdle to get over for the Twins to win this thing.

I don't have a problem with either city (Philly or SD) but he might...just might...have enough money to live in Philly from April through October and then move to somewhere like San Diego from November through February (and of course Florida for March). That's the beauty of playing the actual season in the summer.

I understand the Boras failure hubris in here but other than the unexpected bottom falling out stuff to Moustakas and Greg Holland have all gotten good contracts. The 2018 offseason was not really expected for those guys so it cost them $5-10 million by not taking the QO or maybe a low-ish ball offer. He can be a douche and ask for 5 years/$500 million for Keuchel but Keuchel will probably get a solid deal for what he's worth in the end. Most of these guys like Mous probably know that they're working with the ****** negotiator that plays hardball and while he may squeeze every ounce out of a team into a long-term deal, they are risking it and could have what happened to Moustakas happen to them.

Within striking range, but he probably would've had a .450 OBP and not .515 (73 HR year) or .582 or .609 like in the years when Bonds was walked relentlessly. Colorado probably wouldn't have affected his HR total too much. So I don't think it would've been that close. Bonds' wRC+ was north of 200, in the 230 range for 4 years. Yelich was at 166 last year. So obviously, Yelich's wRC+ in theory shouldn't have changed much in Colorado given that it is weighted for where you play, but his raw AVG/OBP/SLG would be inflated by a performance-enhancing stadium, whereas Bonds was playing in a tough park over half of his games and still put up those numbers. So, Bonds had nothing performance-enhancing about his seasons...

Well, he is still playing in Colorado so none of that matters for concerns. It'd be different if he was given this contract to play say in San Diego. While playing at Coors he's worth this easily and proven so. I suppose that's true. But the point would be that the dropoff to whoever replaced him wouldn't be as stark as a normal dropoff becasue his replacement will also get inflated stats. Still, I get it for Col, he's the face of the team, can't let him go. In spite of the Tulo contract blwing up in their face they kind of had to do it. And if he does well and opts out at age 31ish or whatever it is then you can more easily let him go and justify it to the fans as opposed to now in his prime. I don't think the Tulo contract blew up in their face that badly. Tulo was excellent (oft injured) while in Colorado under the big contract. They did have to pay Jose Reyes $45 million over 2 years not to contribute and the prospects they received in return failed, though Hoffman still could be a great return. I think if not for Reyes' domestic issues, they may have been able to peddle his contract off earlier for some value. In terms of "yeah, but Arenado's done it in Colorado" - it's really hard to find a hitter who has not exploded in Colorado. Maybe Ian Desmond. Like 95+% of guys that play in Colorado get the boost that comes with it...so when you take that context in, it isn't a "yeah well Colorado signed the guy with Colorado inflated stats." If the Rockies obtained Christian Yelich, his numbers would spike accordingly...so it doesn't make much sense.

Heyward among others. That said, Arenado definitely is in the class of player that should be ready to opt out then. But injury or change of financial landscape could change that.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that he's better than Machado. Machado has the defense (when he cares) and arguably is a better hitter. Harper is probably a better hitter than Arenado. That said, Arenado is very, very good and given the likelihood that he "tries harder" than Machado, is more likely to earn the value later on in the contract years. Harper playing half of his games at Coors would hit .285 or .290 with 50 HRs and lots of doubles. Machado would probably hit .330 with an excellent OBP/slugging and just as many dingers as Arenado.

The issue in all of this is that before every season and trade deadline I am barely interested in any of these guys for the cost. We hear the line, "let's make a move at the deadline" but honestly I wouldn't put in a winning bid for any of these guys given that I'll be bidding against 4-5 other teams at least. Obviously we'll settle on a value guy like Gio was or some team will cave and just give us someone like Stroman for a very small return. That said, almost none of those guys interest me assuming we are getting near the playoffs with the same core. Why would I give up 6 years of a valuable prospect for Stroman? What if I could just pitch a bullpen game and pitch likely better than what Stroman could give me? That's why, if this was truly available and Mark would be willing to pay...I'd take Keuchel for 1-2, maybe 3 years. Keuchel doesn't really move the needle for me that much but none of those guys do other than maybe Ray. So keep the prospects and get the pitcher anyways that can help us for the full season. We're going to need it this year. A slow start and we may be cooked given the competition level.

They also frontloaded Hosmer's for this reason. They'll probably be lighting $13 million on fire for the final 3 years of his deal, but at least they aren't lighting the $21 million of the first 5 years on fire at the end. Hosmer can also opt out, but I highly doubt he'd be in a position to do that.

I do not contend that Machado is a JJ Watt caliber "good guy" but the level of salt being poured on baseball-related assumptions/projections of Machado and now the Padres are maybe a little bit...just a little bit increased by the spiking and subsequent playoff defeat.

I'll agree this is far better than him going to the Cubs/Dodgers/Phillies THIS YEAR, but it would have be nice to saddle the cubs with another trash contract in 5 years when MM is bad. And I also don't know that the Padres can't compete this year. They have so much young talent that could arrive this year, along with a few strong/established players. The Cubs will probably be in the dumpster regardless in 5 years and beginning a rebuild. A rebuild that is probably long enough that having Machado for 3-5 more years isn't a huge issue. We're talking way out, but their cycle will probably be competitive until 2023 or 2024 and rebuilding until 2027. It will be like the Braun situation where having a 3 year moderately large deal remaining is not going to cripple you.

I'm the exact opposite. Harper isn't going to get lazy. I think Manny is already there. Conversely, Bryce Harper right now is an above average/really good bat and a pedestrian defender. So he can try as hard as he wants and still not be as impactful to a team as Machado.

Yeah... I'd rather have spent $45 million over four years on Moose and played him at short (which he hasn't played since full-season A ball in 2008). Maybe the numbers wouldn't be as good, but Moose is a good teammate and doesn't mess up the clubhouse chemistry. The Dodgers just played in the World Series. But the Brewers were...happier?

He’s 26 and a 5-7 WAR player every year at a prime position. There’s little reason to think his value will go down the next few years. He's a generational talent, but also comes off as lazy and entitled. Those are the types that get their huge money and go into coast-mode. Perhaps coast-mode for him is still All-Star-type numbers. It's just my personal feeling, which could very well be wrong. perhaps I just don't like the guy, and am letting that bias seep in. The guy on the Rays' current staff, before he was doing it, deemed that $6 million was the max you should spend on a player from a business standpoint (not baseball). So you're both right and not right. It's not going to be worth their investment from a marketing standpoint...but that's because in baseball, no one is. Machado could be an awful franchise spokesman and it's not going to make a difference.

Bringing this over from the Moustakas thread: Great article. Mid-tier free agents are getting screwed because they are not getting the 80 million dollar contracts that Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen just got a few years ago. Since signing the contract, Leake has a 4.32 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 1.30 WHIP and 95 ERA+ and Chen has a 4.75 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 1.28 WHIP and 80 ERA+. Leake will probably be about a 1 bWAR/season player over the life of this contract and Chen could easily wind up in negative bWAR territory. If anything this shows that MLB owners and GMs have stopped drinking the mid-tier free agent Kool-Aid with many of these players. This is the challenge of the next CBA. I agree that the owners/GMs aren't very dumb anymore and have gone with their own makeshift way of what MLB free agency will look like after the next CBA. Guys like Moustakas got stuck in purgatory because they won't get the benefit of the next CBA where young, good players are paid "fairly" and then are forced to play their 30s on 1-3 year deals like the NBA. Take Leake, for example. Let's take the $8 million = 1 WAR number. You're more well-versed in this than I am so maybe you have a better number. Leake averaged a little over 1.5 WAR/year. So let's just say he should've averaged $12 million/year in production. I'm not saying he should've earned that much as a young player, but what if his rookie/arb salaries were: $500k $4 million $7 million $10 million $15 million $19 million That would be $55.5 million over his first 6 seasons when he technically was worth about $72 million. Instead, he made $20 million. Lucky for Leake, he was there in the end of the "pay the vets" era and got an $80 million deal for the 5 years after that he probably will not earn in terms of WAR. Someone like Leake could then close out his career with a series of 1/$12 or 2/$20 deals if he's still in solid shape. Or if he's a shell of his former self, maybe he'll sign a few 1/$4 deals. regardless, he'd hit that $100 million that he "deserved" and be paid when he was producing. I'm not sure how you make this work. Shortening team control allows the Yankees to poach every young star. Upping arbitration values like I gave as an example for Leake can make it so some rebuilding team gets to the point where it asks "why the heck do I want Mike Leake for $19 million?" But something will have to come about that is a happy medium among all of these.

Counsell confirmed that Moustakas will play some 2B so I'm assuming that either he's taking over 2B and Shaw will be 3B or at least will look to take the lion's share.

And an average of 18 Ks a game! But dingers!!! But we would have a good shot of taking 2 out of 3 with the Marlins. Man, I dunno. We'd probably be much closer to the 47 win Orioles with that lineup. It would depend on if we kept our full pitching staff intact or not. Especially in our case because the Marlins may be the only team left in the NL that aren't trying to win this year. There are a lot of guys on that list that could easily hit .190/.220/.340 type of slash lines.

We'd be "all-in" but there would probably be 6-7 equally dangerous teams in the NL. Braves, Phillies, Cards, Dodgers and probably 2 or 3 from this list: Rockies, Cubs, Reds, Mets, Nationals. I wouldn't be complaining, just saying that it's going to be a bloodbath. We could sign Keuchel and have one of our best teams ever and be stuck in a road Wild Card game. * Note - I know people will quibble with my list. If you go by Vegas, the Nats are actually one of the more sure things and the Braves may not be so much.

Yeah, Moose ever since 2015 hits lefties pretty well. So give him sporadic days off against RHP with Shaw at 3B or on a game you are OK with Shaw maybe struggling with the LHP. The lineup should absolutely club RHP and be fine against LHP. My biggest concern is Pina has reverse splits and may not handle the LHP games that he’ll be starting fairly often as well as we’d hope. With Mous/Shaw/Thames and I guess Gamel - you can only have so many LOOGYs come in before you are forced to pitch to one of these guys with a subpar RHP in a close game.