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bill hAll Star

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Everything posted by bill hAll Star

  1. bill hAll Star
    Garrett seems to be a long reliever now and doing fairly well at it. There's still Liriano, Fiers, Estrada, Cashner, etc. depending on how much the other team would pay. EDIT: I didn't see that we specified only NL. Why is "only NL" the distinction?
  2. bill hAll Star
    Not shocking, I don't think this trade will ever happen because it would take the perfect storm of a team that has 5 pieces to give up for Trout and the Angels being ready to sell him off. Even if we gave up a haul, in theory, the haul almost never equals what Trout gives. That said, as Trout gets closer to free agency, it becomes more of a possibility. The Angels are probably best suited doing what they have the past several years. "We messed up on the Pujols/pitching plan and emptied our farm system too early, but we'll just have to try to patch it up and see what happens with Trout/Simmons being here for 2 more years." I think they actually did a decent job this year and just got screwed by the division they're in. That's not to say that they are built to be a dominant team, but they're playing a lot of games against 3 of the best teams in baseball. Their record comes down to this: They are 1-11 against NYY/Boston and about .500 against Oakland/Houston/Seattle. If they instead had just hung in there against NYY/Boston and had 1-2 more whipping posts in their division instead of good teams, they'd probably be 10+ games over right now.
  3. bill hAll Star
    Some may, but his contract was built to spike massively in AAV for the final 3 seasons (35+ million/year) with money getting deferred from that for many years after it. He's pretty much on a 3 year, $110 million deal and as it is currently written, a lot of the money is deferred. Yep. And he's the best pitcher in baseball. Top 3 anyway. Every large market team claims him and some middle market teams too I would think. No doubt in my mind that the Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Angels claim him. I think the Giants, Cardinals, Astros, Mariners would all be likely. Diamondbacks, Braves, Indians could. Half may be an exaggeration, but not much of one. A lot of those teams don't want to go over the luxury tax mark this year. Maybe they'd make an exception for this, but teams like the Giants might pass because they're going to get taxed 40% on his already huge contract for at least a year.
  4. bill hAll Star
    Some may, but his contract was built to spike massively in AAV for the final 3 seasons (35+ million/year) with money getting deferred from that for many years after it. He's pretty much on a 3 year, $110 million deal and as it is currently written, a lot of the money is deferred.
  5. bill hAll Star
    I agree with some of this, but Polanco seems to be yet another fabled launch angle guy. His FB% is way up this year and that is part of the reason that the ball is leaving the park much more often. Dickerson cut his K% in half. Something's going on there as well. They have great pitching depth behind Archer and Taillon. The Cole trade appears to be a huge mistake, of course. I'm not sure this is what I'd have done if I was them, but the Pirates have usually been on my list of teams that are at least somewhat well-run (over the past decade or so, that is). They got unlucky last year and we'll see this year if it's luck or if they're really this 85-90 win team that they look like.
  6. bill hAll Star
    It's only a small number of innings, but: Miley went from throwing his fastball 65-70% of the time early in his career, 55% of the time the with the O's/Red Sox to now 31% of the time with the Brewers. He seems to have added a cutter and varies his pitches more. Something to keep an eye on.
  7. bill hAll Star
    See my post: I think having a loaded bench when you double switch and pinch hit a lot in the NL is probably an undervalued commodity that Stearns is trying to tap into. This team is a top defensive team thanks to the staff, analytics, and transactions to acquire some of these guys. Again, they know what they’re doing if they think they can make it work in the context of the defense.
  8. bill hAll Star
    Isn't that good to have those guys available on the bench? No, it would be better to have on at C...or SS assuming Schoop is not going to be at SS often. It’s an expensive price to pay for these guys when they find themselves on the bench so much. We make a lot of pitching changes. My guess is that Stearns is adding a pseudo-DH here with the options we have and the amount of times we have the option of pinch-hitting. If this was a bumbling front office making stupid decisions left and right I’d call it a “curious move.” Since it’s not, even if there is risk to it, I am trying to figure out why it could be shrewd, and I think my above paragraph is why.
  9. bill hAll Star
    One more year of arbitration next year.
  10. bill hAll Star
    Everyone welcome the DH to the NL (only to one team). It's pretty clear that reverse engineering this, Stearns likes to have 2 good hitters off the bench at all times given all of the bullpenning the Brewers do. Shaw/Mous/Schoop platooning at 2B, Shaw/Mous at 3B. In any game you'll have at least 2 very bats (like some of them All Stars) off the bench.
  11. bill hAll Star
    The theory is that we make so many pitching changes, we'd platoon Mous/Schoop/Shaw at 2B/3B and have a killer bench. You'd basically be playing with a DH while the other NL team is not.
  12. bill hAll Star
    Phillies. Lock it up.
  13. bill hAll Star
    Return not yet known.
  14. bill hAll Star
    I think I heavily agree with this. I have a hunch Stearns and the Reds have a contingency deal agreed to ... "if we don't get anyone else by the deadline ... we'll send you A & B for Harvey". Also, to the next poster who said something about Sonny Gray ... I think I'm on board if that can happen. Reunite him with Derek Johnson and let him lead the charge. Gray and Harvey? Why would we give up anything for these guys? By acquiring either of them you are just praying for good luck the rest of the year. Nothing about their season is worth acquiring. Gray and Harvey are both ~4.50 FIP/xFIP guys that have either had some bad luck or a bad start. Point being, they are basically what Suter/Miley/Anderson/Davies are. With our defense, their numbers may look better. All we need is depth since we lost Suter and Nelson won't be a factor with Peralta's innings limit coming up. Neither of those guys are sexy moves but they are pitchers that are good enough to go 5, maybe 6 and get it to our bullpen. Or maybe guys that allow us to push Miley to a long relief role.
  15. bill hAll Star
    The Brewers are in an interesting position. We've got a really good team this year built on an OK pitching staff, lock-down bullpen, and great defense. However, we have a deep farm system that should help us stay competitive for the next 4-5 years but the depth of it is important. So we lost a little pitching depth. Stearns offers modest/lowball offers for guys like Wheeler that may be considered an upgrade. Then he goes and offers even less for Harvey and Gio. Just take whatever comes to you. All we need is pitching depth. If we're talking rentals, is there truly that much better out there than Gio that hasn't already been dealt? You have to weigh this with the idea of Archer or Wheeler costing something that will hurt our future quite a bit.
  16. bill hAll Star
    FYI, Marco Gonzales, Gio Gonzalez
  17. bill hAll Star
    The Nats are in this position: They have a good roster that could explode and make a comeback to the playoffs. However, a lot of it is near the end of their contracts and they're in a bad spot in the standings. They're putting their players on the block. If someone offers a lot, take it. If nobody offers much, just take your chances at a miracle playoff run. Everyone's on the block but they probably won't move much if the offers aren't there.
  18. bill hAll Star
    I think all of these "pursuing" tweets of random rentals are pretty easy to figure out. Call up 10 teams offering pitching rentals, give a lowball offer. 2 minutes before the trade deadline, somebody may have to flinch.
  19. bill hAll Star
    Cards clearing out the OF logjam, methinks.
  20. bill hAll Star
    This is GM-speak just like the Royals, Mets, and Brewers before the season. They probably can stand pat/keep trying to win but they'd sell if they got the right offer. This seems to come up on a lot of these threads. Just take it as "we want better offers and don't 100% have to sell the listed assets we have" whenever these GMs say this.
  21. bill hAll Star
    My guess is that the package for Dan Straily would be something like the bullpen catcher for the T-Rats. I guess he's been pitching better the last few weeks, but he's not someone that I'm interested in giving up value for. He is basically akin to what we already have in guys like Davies and likely inferior.
  22. bill hAll Star
    The problem with the "he can go 6+" here is that any of our guys (Davies when he returns, Chacin, Anderson, Guerra, some of Peralta's starts) could also go 6 IP at those numbers if we were tanking like the White Sox. Other than a few games where Peralta gets pitch counted in 4 or 5 innings, our starters absolutely can throw 100-120 pitches and go 6 or 7 innings...but we are choosing not to as a strategy. Plus, Shields is in the AL where they don't have to worry about pulling him for a key at bat. The White Sox are letting Shields pitch in games where they have a 2-1 lead and he puts 2 guys on in the 6th because the results of their games don't really matter. If he gets into that situation in Milwaukee, Josh Hader is coming in. I'm fine with picking up a scrap heap player like him, but he's probably also going to go 5 IP a lot because we're trying to win.
  23. bill hAll Star
    I'd bullpen game it. I'd probably pick out of a hat if we had to go with a starter (Chacin or Guerra, maybe) but they'd probably be capped at 3 innings unless they were absolutely dealing or we have a big lead. I'd also consider starting Hader or Jeffress. To the people above that said "this won't work" - take a look at the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals. We got a pretty close look at that, unfortunately. Going through the playoffs, the other team would probably have an advantage starting Kershaw or Nola or something like that...we'd basically get a DH to play against them.
  24. bill hAll Star
    Given that teams know they're out of contention earlier, other teams want a larger window with their rental or shorter-control player, etc. teams are making all of their deals all through July instead of right at the deadline. I'm not expecting a huge flurry of moves.
  25. bill hAll Star
    I'm for a controllable pitcher if the price is right...but I agree that we could get by with another reliever and/or a garbage man starter like Matt Harvey to cover a few starts.
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