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bill hAll Star

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Everything posted by bill hAll Star

  1. bill hAll Star
    I'm a fan of Nottingham down the line and the idea that if nothing else, he should be a low OBP/high power guy, but I am not sure if Nottingham is going to be much of an improvement on offense the rest of this year or next year over what we've gotten out of Pina, et al. He's much better all around than Kratz. We really could use 2017 Pina right about now though. I've also noticed Bandy is looking pretty good in AAA, we definitely need to get rid of Kratz immediately...whether it's for Realmuto or an internal option. I'll bet Kratz could put up the batting line that Bandy is putting up in CS. I think my only role on this board is to temper expectations on non-MLB caliber hitters raking in Colorado Springs and the PCL at large.
  2. bill hAll Star
    I'm a fan of Nottingham down the line and the idea that if nothing else, he should be a low OBP/high power guy, but I am not sure if Nottingham is going to be much of an improvement on offense the rest of this year or next year over what we've gotten out of Pina, et al. You have to play him at some point to find out. Other than playing in the batting average paradise of Colorado Springs, his numbers do not lend me to believe that he's going to be much more than a high-K/low average guy early on. He could be better than Pina, but he'd be a similar type of hitter early on. You're right that you have to play him to find out, but if your goal is "improving the offense" - then he's not someone I'm betting on to be that good in 2019. That said, I'm completely fine giving him the job. There's a chance that his power/OBP is good enough or that he surprises.
  3. bill hAll Star
    I'm a fan of Nottingham down the line and the idea that if nothing else, he should be a low OBP/high power guy, but I am not sure if Nottingham is going to be much of an improvement on offense the rest of this year or next year over what we've gotten out of Pina, et al.
  4. bill hAll Star
    Parra has reverse splits this year. LeMahieu kinda has reverse splits but it's basically because he's hit some homers on the road. Still a way higher BA/OBP/etc. at home this year and his career is majorly home-juiced. Ian Desmond does as well. It's a bit of a strange year all around for the Rockies.
  5. bill hAll Star
    I agree with almost all of this except for the latter part. The QO situation could blow up in their face like the Moustakas situation did for the Royals, but the Twins could absolutely just ride it out with Dozier and then get him on the QO. Yes, you lose the leverage of the comp pick in trading him next year, but the Twins do not want to go into another rebuild and have an extremely low payroll next year. I may not fully grasp all of the risk/reward here, but I could also see them standing firm that they'd keep him and offer the QO.
  6. bill hAll Star
    Was it Larry Waker? I just looked and the steroid era is so fun to look at with Coors Field numbers. Walker's home batting line in 1999: .461/.531/.879/1.410 with 26 HR in 66 home games (only started 58). No, he's not the one.
  7. bill hAll Star
    It might actually be harder given how many young players have hit the majors and seen power spikes like they never had in the minors. Guys like Torres, Judge and Albies are better in the majors than they ever were in the minors by a very wide margin. There are various reasons that some of those guys hit worse in the minors (Albies and Torres were really young, Judge hadn't figured things out yet, etc.) but all of those guys played in the International League. Playing in the PCL for Colorado Springs is like playing your home games at Coors Field and then going to some away games @Great American Ballpark, Camden Yards, and Yankee Stadium. There may be some interesting pitchers there but there's not much they can do to stop the offense. The International League is a tough hitting environment.
  8. bill hAll Star
    He plays for the Rockies, so yes. Who is the guy that has reverse splits, or had reverse splits there? I can't recall who it was... maybe was a couple years ago...? Every year a handful of guys do but I'm not aware of a guy that has had them for an extended period of time. That said, I'm sure someone did a few years ago.
  9. bill hAll Star
    He plays for the Rockies, so yes.
  10. bill hAll Star
    I would imagine that Counsell/Stearns are well aware of it. The Brewers are part of the revolution. They did it last year in Nelson's stead. The Rays are starting relievers every other game. It's not necessarily a new idea for playoff games. In 2011, Cardinals starters only made it through the 5th one time in our 7 game series - Carpenter went 5.0. We'd just be tightening that up even more in the absence of an ace and maybe going 3-2-1-1-1-1 or something like that. I wouldn't be surprised if we are in the situation we did something like this. If it plays to our strengths, it would be cool to try. Would we do? Why not. The Brewers do a lot of shifting. The Brewers have used Hader in a really unique and effective way. So to say Counsell wouldn't consider it seems incorrect. You leave yourself out to dry a bit if the game goes to extra innings but that's the gamble you take. It still is the best probability all around, though Stearns/Counsell will have Miller Park stormed on them if the Brewers lose a WC game in the 14th inning when they're stuck throwing Chase Anderson for extended innings as their last bullpen option and no pinch hitters. But that doesn't mean it was the wrong idea.
  11. bill hAll Star
    I would imagine that Counsell/Stearns are well aware of it. The Brewers are part of the revolution. They did it last year in Nelson's stead. The Rays are starting relievers every other game. It's not necessarily a new idea for playoff games. In 2011, Cardinals starters only made it through the 5th one time in our 7 game series - Carpenter went 5.0. We'd just be tightening that up even more in the absence of an ace and maybe going 3-2-1-1-1-1 or something like that.
  12. bill hAll Star
    Plus I'd imagine that Dozier's salary probably would push the Dodgers' luxury tax situation (not sure how close they are now, but has to be getting there). EDIT: Looks like they're $~4 million under. It would be pretty close. I guess Dozier's prorated amount would be around 4 or maybe a bit less depending on time of trade.
  13. bill hAll Star
    Is there a rule stipulating that a team must try to get 100+ pitches out of their starter? Do Josh Hader's pitches not work in the 1st, 2nd, or 4th inning? We'd probably be at an advantage essentially playing with a DH while the Nats throw Scherzer for 7 innings. Peralta goes 2 innings, Guerra goes 2, Hader 2, Burnes 1, Jeffress 1, Knebel 1 in any order. That's probably a better bet than Arrieta, Teheran, maybe Folty, Freeland, Gray, and on par with a lot of those other guys plus their bullpens. I'd throw a lot of money down on that combo being better than trying to push Cole Hamels into throwing 110 pitches. If it goes into extra innings, you can throw Albers, Jennings, etc. out there and if you get to the 12th or 13th, then I guess you ride Chase Anderson for the rest of the night.
  14. bill hAll Star
    Depending on batting order, I'm probably handing Hader or Jeffress the ball to start that game. If not, Peralta or Guerra can start with a short leash. To me, that's superior than throwing out a guy with a high FIP/xFIP (to go along with poor ERA) that has been there for almost a full 2 years now.
  15. bill hAll Star
    Phillips and Broxton destroyed CS in the past, though. Garrett Cooper, Cordell, Ivan DeJesus, Sogard, Orf, Wren, and other journeymen or AAAA players have all put up similar numbers in Colorado Springs recently. Unfortunately it's almost impossible to tell. Brinson did great there and is about on par with Arcia in the majors. You can look right at Nottingham's BABIP and K/BB peripherals and realize that he'll go right back to his low average, high slugging, high K projections in the majors and that you can just throw the AAA numbers right out the window. The PCL is also a hitter's league so it's not like the Rockies where they at least go into a lot of tough divisional environments on the road. Even with that said, take a look at most of the Rockies' splits this year. Every year there is a guy with reverse Coors splits (I think it's Parra this year), but CarGo, Story, etc. are on the usual 1.100 OPS at home .700 road OPS type thing.
  16. bill hAll Star
    Nothing like trying to chase a hot streak in which the guy has a higher batting average than OBP. The one thing I'll agree on is that while I don't value him that highly, his July numbers do at least show that he's not dead in the water...but that Avg/OBP is right in line with his extremely streaky zero-walk mentality.
  17. bill hAll Star
    Wouldn't hurt to try, but Bethancourt also is a Colorado Springs juice stats guy.
  18. bill hAll Star
    The pen can get gassed here and there, but we're almost to September where it won't be an issue. It also shouldn't be in the playoffs. You do need some longer starts from starters, but the Brewers were fine until last week. You can have Chacin go 7 innings when you're winning 8-2 in the 6th. In general, they found ways to string the bullpen along. 15 games in 14 days or whatever it was can tax any team. Welcome to baseball in 2018. This is a smart strategy. If the Brewers had Kluber or deGrom they'd be a bit better than they are, but they're making the best of what they have and I don't think Archer is an upgrade. Give me 5 innings of Chacin and 2 innings of Burnes and that's just as good as Archer. I'd much rather have Burnes pitch the 8th after a 7-inning Archer start, because Hader is unavailable due to going 3 innings in Guerra's short start two days earlier. Burnes? You mean the guy that dons a Rays jersey because he was dealt for Archer?
  19. bill hAll Star
    I just don't think continuing to play the "bullpen game" is sustainable. We saw it last week. The pen was gassed, and we were left shorthanded there due to a bunch of short starts in a row. Now perhaps if some of our starters come back, we can perhaps shift Peralta and Suter to bullpen roles. I just think having a starter that can provide a consistent 6+ innings nearly every time out would be a huge help. The pen can get gassed here and there, but we're almost to September where it won't be an issue. It also shouldn't be in the playoffs. You do need some longer starts from starters, but the Brewers were fine until last week. You can have Chacin go 7 innings when you're winning 8-2 in the 6th. In general, they found ways to string the bullpen along. 15 games in 14 days or whatever it was can tax any team. Welcome to baseball in 2018. This is a smart strategy. If the Brewers had Kluber or deGrom they'd be a bit better than they are, but they're making the best of what they have and I don't think Archer is an upgrade. Give me 5 innings of Chacin and 2 innings of Burnes and that's just as good as Archer.
  20. bill hAll Star
    The love affair everyone has with Archer boggles my mind. Really? You don't understand how a durable cost-controlled starting pitcher with great stuff may be of interest? Even if some of his peripherals are trending in the wrong direction? Is Archer a vast upgrade over what we currently have? I'd say he's got higher upside and could be a bit better than some of the guys in our rotation, but why not just grab some cheap relievers and play the bullpen game the rest of the year? We don't really need "cost-controlled" pitching (he won't be that cheap anymore) anymore with the depth we have.
  21. bill hAll Star
    I’m just curious but what does “available as depth” mean? After the year Guerra has had you’re going to move him to the pen? Or the minors? I don’t mean to pick on you I’m just pointing out we have more than enough depth pitching wise for next year. More than enough. Trading a guy or two, I’d argue, isn’t just ok it’s necessary. I personally want to keep Burnes but if we trade Peralta and/or Woodruff for a quality veteran I’d be perfectly ok with that. You can almost never have more than enough. I'm fine dealing maybe one, but you can move guys with certain skillsets to the bullpen or have them as shuttle guys if they have an option. Hader, Peralta, Anderson, Davies, Guerra as your rotation. Chacin/Suter both as long-relief swingmen. Chacin could be Burnes in the Hader role for one more year until he moves into the rotation. Chacin kills RH batters so he'd be a good reliever. I'm not sure we can count on Nelson. If he's in there, maybe you deal one of those guys before the season.
  22. bill hAll Star
    I can somewhat talk myself into Merrifield. The issue is that he is a little bit on the older side. This run of being a solid/good player could end quickly. His game is very dependent on hitting the ball very hard and stealing bases. Those skills could diminish in the next year or two. You could still work Hiura in at some point in 2019 or 2020, probably. Merrifield may turn into the super-sub and hopefully we have the DH by then to offload Braun a bit.
  23. bill hAll Star
    I may look insane in a few weeks or months, but I'm planting my flag that Saladino is our Whit Merrifield. I'd rather just roll with a rental and go to Hiura soon than give up a bunch for Merrifield, also. I'd also be fine with a Miller/Villar platoon at 2B. I like Saladino, and think he will produce better than the SS position has brought without him there, but you think that's enough to move the needle to make a difference this year? I would LOVE Hiura to have a shot at 2b and miller and villar as your backup/utility/ph's. But, even he has now struggled at AA some. The only catcher that moves the needle for me is Realmuto and i dont know that he's available yet for what we would be able to/want to give up. Almost feels like now that Machado is gone, there just isn't as much out there... that will make a difference. Though Ray, Mederios, Brown for Whit , I think I would do... I probably am going to talk myself out of any trade this year because I don't think any are going to move the needle enough...and the handful that do probably cost too much. So that is my frame of reference. I don't mind Merrifield and he's probably an upgrade, but I'm not sure I value the extra control enough to pay a bigger price.
  24. bill hAll Star
    I may look insane in a few weeks or months, but I'm planting my flag that Saladino is our Whit Merrifield. Guys that don't seem like they'd ever profile to the batting line that they're putting up that figure it out in their late 20s due to hard contact rate. I'd rather just roll with a rental and go to Hiura next year than give up a bunch for Merrifield. I'd also be fine with a Miller/Villar platoon at 2B.
  25. bill hAll Star
    Agreed. Need more length from the starting rotation. I think that comes with the acquisition of a starter, and Counsell loosening his short leash on some of the current starters. It's 2018. Sure I'd like to trade for deGrom, but given cost - if we're talking about just for this season - what's wrong with adding more bullpen arms? We're not far from September where if we have an absolutely loaded bullpen we won't have to worry about taxing it much. There's nothing against basically going 5-1-2-1 or something to that effect for innings the rest of the way. I'm not sure about Britton specifically, but anyone that is begging for a longer leash from Counsell and to go all-in on acquiring better starters has not been paying attention to where baseball is going in 2018 and how the Brewers have made a great team out of an OK starting rotation. I understand that a depleted bullpen during a long stretch of games was a bit of a recent bad spell, but I am all aboard the current strategy of bullpen ball. The positives outweigh the negatives with the current roster construction.
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