bill hAll Star

I think the ship has sailed on turning Villar into something more than what he is. His arbitration is getting somewhat expensive as well. The O's still may take him as filler, but he wouldn't have any value in the trade.

I don't think the Giants needing to shed $ is about "giving up." They are likely going to keep trying, but they are literally a few dollars away from going over the luxury tax threshold. My assumption is that they're trying to give up lesser contributors with moderate/high salaries (just for 2018). Once they do this, they can maybe acquire a different piece to help them compete. I'm sure they'd be happy to dump a player that is making more than they should in 2019, but it's all about staying under the threshold in 2018 so that their penalty resets for next year.

I definitely agree that all I really am counting on would be utility player out of him and anything more is a bonus. However, Saladino had one terrible year that brought him down. He does seem very streaky, he was up-and-down in the minors. Saladino's "lucky" run has included 4 HR already. Sogard hit 3 all of last season. If they truly added the leg kick back and Saladino is getting hard contact very often, he was already had a pretty good eye at the plate. He has a bit more of a frame for power than Sogard. Therefore, 15 HR to go with .270/.330/.410 isn't out of line for him in a best case scenario. I see it as: What if Whit Merrifield was called up (and struggled) in his early/mid 20s like Saladino? Of course, that's a very optimistic projection getting a bit excited about hard/medium contact rates in 50 ABs. Those could easily level out. He's also putting the ball in the air a bit more often than he used to. I think the fact that he can put the ball over the fence enough makes him a viable hitter if this added leg kick truly does allow him to keep hitting the ball hard often.

To me, Saladino is not the same as Sogard. Sogard was a high draft pick but it was pretty clear what he was due to a long MLB career. OK defense at 2B and a ~.600 OPS. He hit some sort of miracle BABIP jackpot for 1 month. I don't know why Stearns brought him back at that, but I guess 2.5 million can arguably be the going rate for a utility guy. Saladino is a plus or at least decent defensive SS. Sogard might've been at one point but is not really anymore. He has the frame to be a good power hitter. LouisEly mentioned that they brought his leg kick back. Yes, I am not rushing to judgment because only 50 ABs, though he has hit the ball hard or medium 85% of the time. He seems to be squaring the ball up. Would I be shocked if they turned Saladino into a .750 power-leaning SS? No. He could definitely fizzle but that potential is there. Would I have been shocked if Sogard remained a .750+ OPS hitter in his 30s with the Brewers? Yeah, probably.

Jean Segura: Year 3 (age 24) .614 OPS Brandon Crawford: Year 3 (age 26) .674 OPS Orlando Arcia: Year 3 (age 23) .482 OPS - yes, that's terrible, but a pretty good season the year before it. He's not this bad. Elvis Andrus: Year 3 (age 22) .708 OPS - He had 4 .650ish OPS seasona after this. He didn't truly start hitting until age 27 (year 8) Andrelton Simmons: Year 3 (age 24) .617 OPS Save for Arcia, these are all All Star bats with an .800+ OPS now after they've gotten to their 5th or so year. If Stearns thinks Arcia's swing is irreparable, I'll take his word for it. I'm not suggesting that Arcia is going to turn into one of these guys in year 5 but it seems like a lot of these guys get called up early for their glove and the bat trails it so I'm not writing Arcia off. The final question is whether you want to wait until year 6 or 7 when he's about to need another contract. Another valid question.

If all you ask of them is 5 innings if they aren't on their game or we aren't out to an 8-1 lead, I think they can probably keep it up. They're only facing the order twice unless we have a reason to keep them going.

To be fair, most projection systems still don't have the Brewers pegged correctly. But I'm even granting a high % of 20% and I'm basically just trying to say that it is not even close to a sure thing to advance very far with Machado for one year. Part of the reason for that 4% is because a lot of the "make playoffs" 80% is a Wild Card opportunity, which has about a 50% chance of knocking you out in 1 game.

Yes.

It may not be franchise-ruining but it can kill exactly what has made the Brewers good the past 2 years and in the future (organizational depth). Right now on TeamRankings, the Brewers' World Series odds are 4%. Say those are low and I'll grant you even a greater impact that Machado may have. It's possible that at best, the Brewers' odds are 15% with Machado, and I think that's high. Closer to the postseason it may rise closer to 20%, but having 10 good seasons with less firepower might give you a chance to win one or two like the Cards did where they got in for the better part of 10 years and accidentally won a World Series when they had arguably their worst teams.

I was a fan of the Yelich trade. I liked the CC trade (but it was more due to the desperation). I'm fine with some nuance. I'm all over the Machado trade if the headlining prospects are not our top tier ones. Having the take of "whatever, they're just prospects" is not something I'll agree with, though.

Or Brantley, Cain, Escobar, etc... If this was such a simple idea and Machado would unlock the "you will win the World Series" code, this trade would've been done yesterday. Unfortunately, it's complicated and a lot of people would prefer to keep the prospects if the price gets steep. And they very likely are not wrong to do so. Except the odds are heavily tilted that he isn't Cain or Escobar and is another flameout. Because that's how odds work. Most players are flameouts. Most players are flameouts...yes. Which is why you generally try to keep 10-15 prospects with good potential around in your system so that 3-4 can become very good players for you for 6 or 7 years as opposed to 3 months of a known commodity. That's also how odds work.

Or Brantley, Cain, Escobar, etc... If this was such a simple idea and Machado would unlock the "you will win the World Series" code, this trade would've been done yesterday. Unfortunately, it's complicated and a lot of people would prefer to keep the prospects if the price gets steep. And they very likely are not wrong to do so.

Attanasio has said he'd open the checkbook. Castro for Arcia and Wilkerson would be a good move, upgrade SS through 2020, when Carmona/Turang will be knocking at the door. Castro hasn't played shortstop since 2015 and he was not very good (he was a little below average) at it prior to that.

I’d be fine with this. Jack up the price to LA or Chicago for Machado then get Lowrie for Ray or some low level package like that. I'm not very high on Ray but I'm not even sure I'd give up Ray for Lowrie. He could very easily have a worse finish to the season than the Miller/Saladino grouping at the plate and Lowrie does not really play SS anymore. Miller/Villar at 2B other than taking up 2 roster spots is a great platoon.

I'm not sure that Oakland is selling. They may be a long ways out of the playoff race, but it's still hard to sell at 10 games over .500.

I love Broxton's value as a depth guy for the Brewers, but he's still just a fringe MLB guy. Plus defense and is good on the wrong side of the platoon. Just doesn't make sense as piece 1B in a trade for Machado.

Should've traded him last year or before the season - yes. On trading him earlier this year - that is up for debate. It's possible that they're trying to hold out for better offers and more teams to solidify that they feel like they're in contention. I doubt that the O's are holding out because they think they have a chance in the standings. I could buy that All-Star game thing, though. Just think how lucky we are to a. not be in the AL East and b. to have competent ownership and leadership.... if you havent had a chance to follow the links to the Oriole message boards - please do - because they either think that the Orioles are going to botch it and be stuck getting nothing, or they think they are getting Peralta, Hiura, Woodruff, and Ray for Machado, and we will toss in Arcia for fun too. Its funny. I've said it several times but I'll believe that the O's are stupid enough to value MLB-ready players when I see it. Sometimes ownership does come down and force the hand but man, I feel like Angelos has to have some sense in him.

That would be the Oriole way though... end up not even trading him, getting nothing in return... They should have traded him by now this year - they could have gotten more... but they just don't seem to get it. They are shooting themselves in the foot by the day. They are 37 out. 14 games out of 4th place. This is not new that they are WAY out of it. Head scratching to waste any more time! Should've traded him last year or before the season - yes. On trading him earlier this year - that is up for debate. It's possible that they're trying to hold out for better offers and more teams to solidify that they feel like they're in contention. I doubt that the O's are holding out because they think they have a chance in the standings. I could buy that All-Star game thing, though.

I honestly have no idea what it's going to take for Machado. I understand the "LOL that for a rental" crowd and I also understand that there are a fair amount of bidders for Machado. I could see it being a surprisingly high cost for Machado or surprisingly not much.

Well, here's the thing: Davies and others in the rotation have random injuries. Freddy Peralta comes up and is great and wins several games. Nelson is out for the year and all we really had to do was get Chacin and we still had a decent rotation with some depth ready behind it. Yelich/Cain/Braun/Thames all get hurt for periods of time. This Broxton guy comes up and literally wins a game for us. Shaw is out for a while, our middle infield underachieves, and we shift guys around and get solid production out of what we end up with. We have the surplus of Choi to trade for Miller. OK, now take a look at above and think "we don't have to worry about prospects for a while!" Now imagine Cain or Yelich or Realmuto go down for a month or so next season. It's not that we wouldn't have anyone like Broxton waiting, but do you remember the days of having to roll with Yuni Betancourt for months at a time? Yeah, that type of stuff can definitely happen. Oh I remember. All too well. Remember when Jose Hernandez was a big signing at shortstop? lol. All I am saying is, as far as locked up, we would have almost every position locked up for a few years. There is enough depth to have a 40-man roster crunch. We have good problems. Don't be surprised if DS goes big on some deals that set us up this year AND next year. There is still surplus!! I'm not saying get silly with EVERY prospect, but we have some play money here. The one guy I don't want to trade is Peralta, because I think he will only get better. Hiura would love to keep as well, but if he nets Realmuto or deGrom (those are about the only two I'd deal him towards) - then I'm game! I'm all for making shrewd moves at the right time, but "every position locked up" is a bit over the top there. I think you're overrating how easily some of these guys are going to turn into good players in our system. We have a lot of nice/interesting players, but outside of Hiura/Burnes, I'm not seeing a ton of massive trade chips or guys that we can be confident will be great depth in the next year or two. There is a lot of depth so we'll have a few more that should come up and turn into bigger prospects, but it's not going to be at every position. It can thin out and leave us vulnerable to an injury real quick.

Well, here's the thing: Davies and others in the rotation have random injuries. Freddy Peralta comes up and is great and wins several games. Nelson is out for the year and all we really had to do was get Chacin and we still had a decent rotation with some depth ready behind it. Yelich/Cain/Braun/Thames all get hurt for periods of time. This Broxton guy comes up and literally wins a game for us. Shaw is out for a while, our middle infield underachieves, and we shift guys around and get solid production out of what we end up with. We have the surplus of Choi to trade for Miller. OK, now take a look at above and think "we don't have to worry about prospects for a while!" Now imagine Cain or Yelich or Realmuto go down for a month or so next season. It's not that we wouldn't have anyone like Broxton waiting, but do you remember the days of having to roll with Yuni Betancourt for months at a time? Yeah, that type of stuff can definitely happen.

There was once a point to platooning him before Aguilar did his launch angle improvement thing (or at least I think he has) that took him from an average hitter against righties/good hitter against lefties to a good hitter against righties and elite against lefties. He's hitting the ball harder and in the air more often. Long story short, he went from a guy you'd want to platoon last year to someone that needs to start every day. To your trade offer: No, I don't think Thames helps them. I know people think they're going to stupidly go after MLB talent but I don't think they're that stupid to value Thames who doesn't fit their next window.

Yeah, I'd take him for a nothing prospect and a few innings late in the year. Devil's advocate: We have guys like Zagurski that are probably fine to face 10-15 lefty hitters (and ONLY lefty hitters) for August/September. It's up to Stearns/Mark to decide whether a million bucks or whatever it is is worth the upgrade for a small number of hitters. The advantage of Duke is he's clearly the better option over guys like Zagurski if we do end up needing him for the playoffs.

You can hand 2B to Miller -- but Villar still should be his platoon partner (.912 OPS vs. RHP this year). Either that or let Orf take Villar's roster spot if you're confident in Orf's ability to hit in the majors (I'm not). So just let Villar finish the season as the short-side platoon guy and pinch runner and assess again next year. Saladino/Arcia/Miller at SS at various stages, I guess. I could still see a trade for a SS, though LouisEly does bring up a good point about Saladino. As he said, I'm not sure we have a Chris Taylor transformation, but in this short sample of games, when Saladino contacts the baseball, he crushes it. 51.4% hard hit % and 42.9% medium hit %. Of course that is extremely unsustainable and Saladino is in the low 20s % for hard hit % and mid 50s medium hit %, but I think this year's numbers are promising in that regard and may show that he's turned the corner to being an adequate hitter potentially. And his glove plays.

We've already got Jennings who has nearly the same splits/results this season. Jennings has been slightly worse but I'm not going to split hairs on that given the small number of innings that we're talking about. Jennings basically is one and will be in the playoffs. He's been tasked with cleaning up the garbage in a blowout in either direction when he isn't getting his LOOGY opportunities and that's why he's been a gas can in a few games when we let him get smoked by righties when the game is out of hand in either direction. Jennings in "high leverage" or "medium leverage" has a 2.20 ERA this year. In high/medium leverage he has a .90 ERA against only lefties with a .602 OPS against. He has a 4.10 ERA in low leverage situations (26.1 innings) and it's mostly because we let him get smoked by righties (.965 OPS vs. RH batters in low leverage) when the game is already out of hand.