bill hAll Star

I'm pretty sure Wily is done as a Brewer. No way they pay him $4M next year. They will let him go. And he won't want to be back. He'll want a fresh opportunity - which is what is needed. No point in bringing him back in September -- instead take a look at some of the other guys who could actually be part of the future. I think all that was pretty clear earlier this year but he continued to get starts and was trash, was moved to the bullpen and was trash, and after coming off the DL in a perfect spot to DFA him he was put back in the bullpen and was still trash. He started out pretty well in the rotation and then crashed and burned. I was one that thought he'd be a good 1-2 inning bullpen guy against righties throwing high 90s with his slider. That failed of course. Other than maybe letting him hang around in the bullpen for an extra week or two, I don't really have a problem with how they handled him this year. This was still a developmental year early on and we were seeing what we had at the tail end of team control with Peralta. You can do worse things than try to trot out a guy that can throw high 90s with a good slider out there to see if he can stick in the bullpen. EDIT: His first 3 starts he had a 2.65 ERA. He went 5 outings of getting roughed up but it was against mostly potent offenses. He got moved to the bullpen and looked excellent his first 2 times out. He blew 2 higher leverage games after that and basically was a mop-up guy for 6 or 7 appearances after that and his appearances were pretty much inconsequential. For whatever it's worth, in the bad 5 games he started, they went 3-2 and 1 of those losses was the only game he pitched OK in in that stretch. You can argue they could have pulled the plug a bit earlier on his stay in the rotation, but I'm not sure what options we had around that time. Guerra was hurt, Garza was off-and-on hurt. You can say Hader or Woodruff but that probably wasn't happening.

IMO, they can know what they have in Guerra with a radar gun in a bullpen session. If Guerra is regularly throwing 95 with a with his splitter in the mid 80s, put him in high leverage situations this year and plan for him to be at least in the mix for a rotation spot next year. If he's in the low 90s/low 80s on the pitches I mentioned above...do not consider him an important piece. Maybe for this year he can get back to throwing mid 90s out of the bullpen which is at least somewhat valuable. If so, he could be considered as a bullpen piece later.

Just another reminder that literally every player we have that steps on the field at Colorado Springs swings a red hot bat there and it doesn't translate to the majors unless you want to believe that it helped Sogard (there are about 6 or 7 counter-examples that suggest Sogard was random). Well it might translate, and it might not. I can assure you that struggling hitting at AAA Colorado means with absolute certainty that you will struggle at the MLB level...see Susac. All things can be in your favor, you still have to hit and perform. It's very likely that it will not matter and the actual ability of the hitter will actually matter. Just look at the Rockies' home/road batting average splits to see why it isn't worth trying to play these "hot streaks." As a team, the Rockies are batting .301 with an .869 OPS at home. On the road they're hitting .249 with a .698 OPS. For context, the Brewers' splits are .248/.249 H/A and .765/.745 Why do the Rockies' hitters always go ice cold on the road? Also, Broxton was on fire when he came up because he faced lefties, terrible pitchers, and went to Coors Field for a series.

Just another reminder that literally every player we have that steps on the field at Colorado Springs swings a red hot bat there and it doesn't translate to the majors unless you want to believe that it helped Sogard (there are about 6 or 7 counter-examples that suggest Sogard was random).

That .370 OBP at AA was only a 60-game sample where he slugged .326. Most of his good numbers have come at Colorado Springs. The problem is that when you put guys like Wren into the majors they end up having Nieuwenhius batting lines without the power. Guys like Dee Gordon are the extreme exception (and even he was way better in the minors at getting on base). Almost all of these other guys will hit .310 with a .380 OBP in the minors and then fail to hit .250 or .260 in the majors because MLB pitchers will come right at them with better stuff and MLB fielders and scouting reports will take a way a ton of base hits. In which case, give me a guy like Nieuwenhius on the bench (though we can do better than that).

I'm not here to throw a ton of cold water on the Kyle Wren situation, because I wouldn't hate to give him a chance, but even if you ignore the Colorado Springs batting average steroids, you can look at Zack Granite as an example of why these guys aren't too coveted. Now, it's a small sample so far on Granite who is struggling to get on base, but if you take a guy that is more of a slap/speed hitter and put him in the majors, there is a solid chance that that batting average/OBP takes a gigantic fall. Teams move their outfielders way in, the guys are facing MLB-caliber pitching, and there are MLB-caliber fielders to take hits away. Suddenly that .300/.380/.450 AAA slash line becomes .250/.310/.350 and you've got a glorified pinch runner. And now you see why teams are more willing to try to get Kirk Nieuwenhuis as their last guy off the bench...because he can provide that average/OBP with some pop. If there is a 40-man spot for Wren then he's fine as a pinch runner or guy if you are looking for somebody to not strike out in a late-game AB but if we haven't already fast-tracked Wren on the 40 it is likely because we have the concern that his skillset doesn't translate to the majors. Is Wren a good fielder? That might help frame this.

I think they'd have had to have gone with Woodruff on 3-days rest to throw him where Garza is throwing @SF.

There are a lot of teams (specifically ones that are in the AL Wild Card race this year and would assume to be in it next year) that would give something up for 1 year of Matt Garza at $5 million at his current state most likely. The Mariners have given up good prospects for AAAA pitchers in recent weeks to try to fill out their MLB pitching staff. If he completely bombs the rest of the season, that could change...but I think he has that value currently.

His previous start vs. Cincy was not grear and the one before against the Twins was even worse than the Rockies game, so this is not a stretch we can just chalk up to the Colorado air. That said as I stated in another thread I'm not opposed to one more start to see if he can turn it around but if not the leash needs to be getting short. I agree in an odd way that I'd be ready to yank him from the rotation this year because he is a fringe #5 starter, but for next year, he's still a surplus value trade commodity and at the very least, depth for our own rotation. However, given that Hader isn't getting put in the rotation and Guerra's velocity seems to not be returning this year, I guess I kinda just say "meh" when asked who the #5 starter could/should be for the final month+. Anderson, Nelson, Davies, Woodruff (he'll be back) is the top 4. Suter and Garza are the same pitcher or at least same risk at this point. Garza's got a higher FIP/xFIP, but I think the risk of Suter getting absolutely rocked is very high as the league starts figuring him out more and more. So I guess they'll both hang around through the end of the year and then I probably keep Garza next year as depth (it's always good to have 8 or 9 MLB-caliber starters) and the situation will sort itself out. Either Garza gets dealt in the offseason, you have some injuries to sort things out, or somebody gets cut/dealt a few months into the season.

If one looks at the Mariners or maybe the Twins or the Angels if some of their guys coming back from injury don't round into form, I think you could probably deal Garza at $5 million next year for something of substance. All of those teams will be desperate for MLB-caliber starting pitching. Even if it's just a helpful bullpen arm, it's nice. He'll do well @SF most likely and start getting his numbers back down. The Coors game was very expected and he has never been the type of pitcher in his career that will do well there. The only way I'd accept not picking up his option is if he continues to get destroyed and legitimately seems done and like a guy that would put up a 6+ ERA next season OR if the Brewers decline the option and are big spenders on the free agent market (which would bring up other debates).

.263/.369/.506 vs. LHP. If Phillips was our guy in CF or any any OF spot, Broxton would be valuable to keep around. Instead, Phillips is probably the 4th guy that spells guys against RHP.

He may be valuable to a team that already has a fair amount of LH bats in the OF and probably a LH starting CF but wants him as the 4th OF that could start for an extended period if necessary. He may not be so streaky if you don't need him to be your full-time starter and understand when to play him (hint: start him when a lefty is on the mound). Unfortunately since he'd be on the wrong side of the platoon, he doesn't generate the value of more of a full-time player.

Not advocating for it, either, but I'll play along and say the return would be something along the lines of: Arcia, Hader, Woodruff & Brinson. Something ridiculous like that. Which of course there is no way the Brewers do that, but that is likely what it would take No way it would take that much. Brinson for sure and then a couple lesser pieces. I'll put this in the same category as the Votto discussion in the other thread. If the Marlins put out there that Stanton was available this offseason, there would be a bidding war among enough teams that the return would become several big-time prospects. Smaller market teams that think they are contending and large market teams will not be in absolute fear of these contracts. Smaller market teams that have a window of contention will take on a player like this knowing that they'll probably be rebuilding in 5 years. Stanton can sit there making $25 million while they cut the rest of payroll and have a $70 million payroll from 2023-2027 or '28. Larger markets will take on Stanton knowing that in 5 years that (hopefully) their TV deal/revenue will be up and the luxury tax threshold will rise so they can just overpay him for the end of his career. Everyone knew that Cabrera, Upton, Zimmermann, etc. would not be worth it at the end of their contracts and they're patting themselves on the back that they were correct. Now, the Tigers fell short of winning a World Series, but they had plenty of playoff teams and near World Series victories mixed in there. Detroit is a mid-market that acted like a large market, but the people were right about all of those contracts. How much does it matter? The heir to the franchise will still just slash payroll in the rebuild and pay Verlander, Sanchez, Zimmermann, Cabrera, Upton and hope to trade a few of them while they rebuild and still have a payroll that is $50-70 million less than they'd been paying in recent years. Long story short: plenty of teams would take on a player like this thus creating a bidding war.

There is too much of an assumption that certain teams want to "shed salary." We'd have to give up 2-3 blue chip prospects at least to get Votto. We'd potentially have to empty out our farm system. The Reds are in the process of rebuilding and do have the atrocity of of Homer Bailey's contract for another 2-3 years (likely 2) and 1 more year of Devin Mesoraco. Beyond that, nobody is expensive. Their payroll is going to be well below what their owner is willing to pay in contending seasons. In 2 years when they have something better put together, they'll have a payroll that looks similar to the Brewers' payroll in 2016 or 2017. Votto at $25 million for 4 years and then a bunch of rookie deals. A rebuilding team, so long as their owner isn't in dire financial straits, is not going to just hand away an MVP player because he's making $25 million of a soon-to-be $70 million payroll when the owner is willing to have a $120 million payroll. Even if the Reds truly did say "we just want to get rid of this contract," teams would be lining up to offer more than "Thames and a couple of lottery tickets" for his services. If this trade was truly offered to Mark and Stearns I think they'd take it before the Reds could even finish the details of the offer.

The 3rd year is a sticking point for the Brewers' payroll. Say it's a 2 year deal. Nobody that matters becomes a free agent this coming offseason or the next offseason. There will be some arbitration raises but none big enough to push the Brewers to a huge payroll (yet). The only assumed holes to fill are a few relief pitching spots. If a 3rd year is added, there still aren't many free agents, but arbitration values start to rise to the point where I'd be concerned about adding anything at all through free agency if Walker or a few bloated reliever contracts are mixed in. It still could be done as a 3-year deal, fully knowing that that is when Walker could fall off a cliff depending on what Mark wants to pay for the roster as a whole.

Walker would be 32, 33, and maybe 34 in the hypothetical 2-3 year contract. I am 100% on board with taking the long view for this team. Build through our own system. That said, we're not interested in tanking right now and there will be plenty of time to find out if Dubon is good down the road. Walker will be a better player for those years and you can decide between Dubon or Hiura somewhere in 2019 or 2020.

Please don't mistake me as a fan that's interested in chasing mediocrity. I've been a fan all along of the rebuild and other than Mark just dumping some of his own money into a trade, I did not want to make any significant "buy" deadline or post-deadline deals. The reality is that Mark wants to compete now. However, Stearns will keep him in check from unloading the farm to hurt the 2022 Brewers to help the 2018 Brewers (we hope). Dubon hasn't been a good hitter above A+ ball or part of a season in AA in Boston's sytem (yet). A .740 OPS in Colorado Springs is something almost any player can do and he wasn't good in Biloxi. The mantra of fans thinking they are being ahead of the curve by saying, "we are a small market and big contracts are bad" and "I don't want stopgaps" are missing out on the nuance of this. Signing a 2B or relievers (on short contracts) does nothing to affect future ability to bring in or retain players. I think there is some "our prospect" inflation going on with Dubon. Finally, with Villar, I was a vocal proponent of letting him get all of 2017 to figure it out. He can still get plenty of ABs in 2018. The issue is that there are a lot of signs that 2016 was the outlier. If Villar plays at All Star form, we'll inevitably have an injury and Walker will fill in (1B, 3B) which would shift guys around anyways and Villar may be a regular player.

The Brewers will not get to hang an extra banner for winning the division or World Series that notes "we also did this with a $55 million payroll." Dubon at his current state is probably not going to be a good MLB player. He's not hitting very well in Colorado Springs so I'm not expecting him to do much in 2018 in the majors. Villar is a giant risk. Dubon may be a good player in the majors (I'm not too high on him) but it probably won't be in 2018. Paying Neil Walker or a similar veteran does not cost any draft picks or prospects, likely does not block a great player for 1-2 years, and if Dubon or Hiura look great in 2 years, they can step in front of him a la Happ and others taking Ben Zobrist's time in Chicago. And before you make the "well Chicago has more to spend" comparison...this will likely be the only big ticket item along with a couple of moderate salaries for relievers for the next 2 years.

The 3rd year could be an issue if somebody this offseason gets a big deal for 3 seasons. But I guess my question beyond that is, how will it hamper the franchise? There may be an unlikely situation where some ace is available at the deadline but we can't absorb a $25 million/year deal for 2 seasons but otherwise (again, strongly assuming Mark will spend his usual amount) I don't really know how it will hamper the franchise. I tried to think of a good word to use, and "hampered" was as good as I could come up with. I'll use the term "excess cash," by which I mean the difference between the amount of money available to spend on payroll less the amount of money actually committed to payroll. Excess cash is a tool, and it should be used wisely. In some cases, it makes sense to use the excess cash to sign a FA, while in other cases it's better to not spend the money and let a prospect get his shot. The Brewers should have plenty of excess cash over at least the next few seasons, and I hope they implement a strategy where they normally have excess cash. They could run out of "excess cash" if they commit themselves to too many contracts, so a couple of ways this hypothetical contract could do harm: 1) They sign multiple guys to deals like this, filling up all of their "excess cash." One of these deals may not seem like a lot, but it only takes three $15M deals to eat up $45M/year of "excess cash." That limits our flexibility for making deals going forward, and I'd rather not use up this money on aging vets who provide limited marginal upside. 2) At his age, he could hit the wall at any time. If he goes downhill in year two of the deal, we may not want to "eat" $17-$34M, so he could be kept on the roster even if he stinks while a better option sits in AAA waiting for the contract to run out. 3) Akin to #2 above, $17M may guarantee him a starting role beyond the time he deserves it. Even if Walker is still playing okay, if someone like Dubon is a better option in 2019, would we use Walker as a $17M bench bat? One 3 year / $17M per year contract would not cripple this franchise, but it could do harm. We would really be looking at Walker as an answer for one year, as we have prospects who should be ready to take over before too long, and Walker is almost 32. If we could get him on a one-year deal, which seems unlikely, I'd be all for it. I'd pass on a multi-year deal for him. Given that we have a lot of known or assumed commodities at C, 1B, SS, 3B, all OF spots, and the SP rotation, let me present this idea: Walker is a very good 2B (3.5 WAR, 3.5 WAR) then is more of a utility bat in 2020 (his 3rd year under contract) as Hiura takes over 2B. Villar ends up being closer to 2017 than 2016 and Dubon is a AAAA player. The Brewers still have room to add relief pitching, a random starter to fill in in the rotation, and lose zero free agents that they'd be concerned about losing (basically nobody is a free agent until after 2020 anyways). Is there anything wrong with this other than Walker is overpaid at $12 million/year as a utility player in 2020? The only way this goes sideways is if they sign Walker and jettison Villar and Villar returns to 2016 form or Huira shoots up the prospect rankings but is blocked for 2019 when he would have been a better option, which I doubt will even be an issue...and even if it is, I think Hiura could just take over. For the record, I'm not necessarily a giant fan of Neil Walker. I'm a big fan of plugging holes in competitive years when it does literally nothing to hamper your ability to maintain the players that you want to 3, 4, 5 years down the road and likely does not block anything substantial on your major league roster.

Villar played at an All-Star level for an entire season last year. That's not a hot streak for a month in 2014, that was for an entire season just last year. He's already shown signs recently of breaking out of his funk. Will he ever be close to the player he was in 2016? No, we don't know. But all the eggs wouldn't be in that basket, Dubon is an option. Not to mention other options they can pursue in the off-season. I hate to mostly be in Briggs' camp, but I am kinda on his side here and I'm a Villar fan. Not sure I agree that Walker will come so cheap, but there is some considerable risk at 2B next season and possibly 2019. Dubon looks like a younger version of Hernan Perez (that may be optimistic). I think Villar can sort it out but there is also a strong chance that he's going to put up another .680 OPS season with a ton of Ks in 2018. If Neil Walker signs a 2/$25 million deal and becomes a glorified infield utility guy with some pop because Villar catches fire and returns to 2016 I will not mind one bit. I say that above sentence because the chances are probably greater that Villar struggles or Dubon is just a guy and Walker is a 3-4 WAR player for 2 seasons. I'm willing to take that "risk" because looking at the Brewers' payroll and current roster, there is literally no risk.

If you look at this roster...where?

The 3rd year could be an issue if somebody this offseason gets a big deal for 3 seasons. But I guess my question beyond that is, how will it hamper the franchise? There may be an unlikely situation where some ace is available at the deadline but we can't absorb a $25 million/year deal for 2 seasons but otherwise (again, strongly assuming Mark will spend his usual amount) I don't really know how it will hamper the franchise.

I agree with a lot of this. I've been one of the people that was vocal asking for Villar to get all of 2017 to figure it out. I still think he can, but I've seen enough of his struggles where I'm not sure of it for 2018. I don't think Walker is "worth" that, though I continue to ask where, other than bullpen, where only so much money can be spent, would one want to spend the money? The detail about 3 years is the possible sticking point in this. I think they'll bring back Swarzak, buy another bullpen arm (maybe 2), and do something like sign Walker. Villar and Perez can both be super-utility guys off the bench and when there is an inevitable injury, basically any of it will be covered. Those praying for a $55 million payroll so that they have nobody besides Braun if he's hurt to be mad at for being overpaid will be...mad...at this offseason. It doesn't have to be Walker but they're going to spend on 2 or 3 veterans on shorter contracts.

All of Phillips, Brinson, and Hader have their warts and I could see them busting or being average players much more than I can other highly regarded prospects. Brinson and Phillips have done "all they can" in Colorado Springs as you've said, but their numbers are likely heavily inflated by facing pitchers that cannot strike batters out at such a high clip and hitting in literally the best environment that you can in baseball. To this point I agree that they may need more seasoning in the majors and they will get that beginning September 1 this coming year and every day beyond, but both of them strike out at a very high clip. Hader's command issues also probably have to do with the fact that he can't throw an offspeed pitch. He has to pinpoint his fastball and slider and they get fouled off a lot. Until he can master that 3rd pitch, he may be a 100 pitch in 4 innings guy with tons of walks a lot of nights as a starter.

I didn't realize until I just now looked how dreadfully thin our 2018 bullpen appears to be on paper. Knebel will close, Barnes will be in the back end somewhere, Suter likely will be a swing man if not traded. Ideally 2 of those spots will go to Webb, Wang, Derby, Scahill, Ventura, Lopez, etc...guys with options that can be rotated to AAA to keep fresh. Torres and Jeffress we can offer arbitration to, probably for close to 3 million each(I feel like we should keep 1 of these 2 at most). I don't even want to think about seeing Drake anymore, and Swarzak/Hughes I believe will be FA. Probably need to fill 1-3 spots with vets that can fill the back end. There seem to be a lot of quality RH relievers on the market, so we should be able to get a couple very good options...just a matter of price. I wouldn't worry too much about the bullpen. Those spots can be filled with waiver wire pickups etc. Its not hard to bring in 6-7 guys with MLB experience to compete for 3 spots in spring training. Brewers could also look internal with Suter/Ventura/Jungmann/Wang/Guerra. And that is not even getting into possible trades. The Brewers are going to need to figure out what they want to do with Broxton/Phillips/Brinson/Santana/Braun I generally like that method to building the bullpen (bringing in former starters, etc.), but given that it is a known weakness next year and that most of the rest of the roster is a known commodity, I'd like to use some of our extra money to bring some known vet commodities in on short contracts. We definitely will fill some of it in by trading Broxton, Garza, etc.