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bill hAll Star

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Everything posted by bill hAll Star

  1. bill hAll Star
    I think almost any Brewer fan not attached to some nostalgia of Braun or one that "shows up to the park to see Braun" would love to have traded Braun. The reality of it is that not a ton was being offered. A lot of people wanted Lucroy traded during his degraded/injured season 2 years ago or before he fully recouped his value. You win some, you lose some by waiting. The only thing is I don't think the Brewers "lost" this one yet or at the very least by a wide margin. Braun's contract doesn't inhibit the Brewers from doing anything they want over the next 3-4 years both 25-man roster payroll-wise or international signings-wise and he may still yet either generate value for the Brewers or get trade value down the road. If he ends up having to rot in an injured/bench role until the conclusion of 2020, I don't think it is going to be too consequential.
  2. bill hAll Star
    I totally get the scouting and international signings argument...but in reality if Mark wants to do that, Mark can do that. The payroll is probably $60 million under what Mark's max would be with Braun on the roster next year. I can't imagine they're going to go bonkers in free agency next year, so if Mark wants to do these things, he can. It could be deemed just as foolish to deal something of value for a nominal salary relief just so you can have the bird in hand. Some wanted to deal Lucroy at all costs when he was hurt/struggling 2 years ago just to get the wheels going on the rebuild. Maybe Stearns missed the window on Braun but I hold out for as much value as I can for as long as I can and that works the majority of the time. It's not like we're the 2013-era Phillies holding on to every single asset beyond his prime.
  3. bill hAll Star
    I'd like to get a very good prospect in that example. We're basically just cutting a year off of the contract if it is Braun for Sandoval straight up. Braun is paid $~20 million/year through 2020 with a '21 option of $4 million buyout and Sandoval is $18 million through '19 with a '20 option of $5 million buyout. We're basically giving Boston an All Star DH to save $20 million in a year that we'll barely need it. Let's say this rebuild is going pretty well and by 2019 we've got a playoff contending team with a deep farm system. Look at teams like Houston who have done this and to plug holes they'll sign an overpriced vet like Beltran to a 2-year deal because when you're contending, you might as well spend up to $100+ million instead of staying at the $55 million all of your young team fills up. We'll essentially just be signing Braun to one of those gap-filling deals for a 2 year deal. Beltran may be a bad example because they really signed him as he went over the hill, but there are plenty of good examples like John Lackey to fill out the Cubs rotation. We do have depth at OF, so maybe Braun is the overpriced 4th OF by then, maybe (unlikely) we'll be able to have a DH in '19/'20, or maybe we trade Braun for a similarly overpriced pitcher to be our #4 starter or for an overpriced 3B if we don't have a solution there.
  4. bill hAll Star
    Likely 2019 lineup: C: 700k 1B: 6mm 2B: 3mm SS: 3mm 3B: 700k LF: ? CF: 700k RF: 700k Bench: Combined 5mm The entire pitching staff will probably cost 20mm Your analysis of his value is astute, but in terms of what his contract means to us, it is very minimal. I know that isn't your main point and that maybe we can find something better, but the $ isn't a huge sticking point. I'm not dying to pencil him in at LF until his contract ends, but if he does end up staying with the Brewers all the way through 2020 or even 2021, the $ likely won't be a huge issue. I understand that the extra $ can be funneled elsewhere in the organization, but I think that if Mark wants to, he can do everything he wants to keep rebuilding the organizationand pay Braun for 3 more years after this. I'm sure we'll overpay some vets to fill holes by the above example in 2019, but we probably only have 40-50 million of guaranteed money not including Braun if most of the prospects come up by then.
  5. bill hAll Star
    Braun, even if injury prone, is way better than Sandoval or Zimmermann. Those guys are AAAA players at this point when healthy. I think Sandoval may be a decent hitter now that he's somewhat back in shape, but he can't stay healthy either. Braun, when healthy, is still a borderline All Star bat. He just is a negative value fielder and he's not the elite All Star hitter he once was. In regard to the Puig/McCarthy/2 (probably uninspiring) prospects deal, sure, I think in hindsight it's better to have bird in hand. At the very least, you're cutting off the final 2 years of Braun's deal which may be somewhat important years that we'd need money, but I still don't think Braun's contract will be very prohibitive. We probably won't need huge cash $ until 2021. I'd still call it a pessimistic wash given that Braun still has a better chance of giving us value either as a player in 2019/2020 or in trade value as opposed to McCarthy, Puig, and the prospects.
  6. bill hAll Star
    I more meant he'd be the centerpiece of a package we'd put together in order to get pitching. Right, but he'd have to be the 3rd or 4th best player/prospect in a trade for Quintana IMO. I'm not sure that Cordell or Erceg (time will tell) fit above Broxton by much.
  7. bill hAll Star
    As much as I like Broxton, I think that the White Sox will get more than that. They probably want a package that has 2 players that can/could become elite. 1. Cordell is playing in Colorado Springs right now. I think he'll be a nice piece eventually but take his numbers at the plate with a grain of salt. A .270/.330 (Cordell's career up until this year) line can turn into .320/.380 very easily in a spacious, high altitude home field. Just ask Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, or Mark Reynolds (or really anyone else that plays for the Rockies/Colorado Springs). 2. I think Erceg will turn it around but the pause button has been hit on his potential to be a top 100 player. Broxton is good but I don't think anyone is considering him a perennial All Star.
  8. bill hAll Star
    I guess I am conflating a little bit of the Diamondbacks' horrible relief pitching issues on to this season. I do think that bullpen may be an issue for them going forward, but they can buy if they need to. You're right that the Diamondbacks are probably a slightly better team at this point.
  9. bill hAll Star
    Yes and no. That's definitely the reason that I'm not buying the Brewers too much going forward, but right now on Fangraphs, the Pirates (mentioned as a better team in that list), Cardinals, Astros, Nats, and Mets are all "worse" in defensive rating. Cubs, Indians, Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles are not very far ahead of the Brewers. In terms of WAR for pitching (probably not the best, I know), the Brewers are 9th. I'd imagine that the bullpen has something to do with that. 20th in xFIP, which is probably more where they belong. I'd bet a lot of money on the Cubs at least being a top 5 (playoff) team, but I actually believe there is a sliver of a chance that they don't make it at this point. Maybe some callups will help, but with Heyward out right now (soon back), no Fowler, Schwarber back in, etc...their defense is much worse this year. I'm sure they'll go on a huge run and probably run away with the division, though, but I do see some holes in their team.
  10. bill hAll Star
    The Brewers should be squarely the #2 or #3 team on that list. We're only 25% of the way into the season and I know that one of the teams that are dead in the water always seem to surprise us and make a run, but... -Pirates have a really bad offense and they're without Marte for 2 more months, Polanco has been dinged up all year (DL10 right now), and Taillon might not be back this year. -The Giants could maybe hold on but their offense is also really, really bad and they may be out of it by the time Bumgarner comes back. -The Mets' pitching will probably get slightly back on track and add Cespedes back into the mix and I'd give them a shot...but they're also in trouble. They have probably the worst bullpen in the league and Familia is done. Matz/Wheeler/deGrom might be able to string some wins together, so you could maybe argue them as tied with the Brewers. -The Brewers and D-Backs are basically a clone of each other. I think the Rockies are legit so they'll get WC1 or maybe have a chance of winning that division.
  11. bill hAll Star
    There are only a handful of teams that are as behind the times as the Tigers in the majors. The Tigers wanted a guy with closer experience but they were probably only bidding in trade negotiations against at most 1 or 2 teams. Nobody else valued K-Rod at all. I was fine with the Brewers picking him up for cash only when they signed him but no team in their right mind should have been trying to acquire him at that age for any sort of valuable prospects. Other teams might have taken K-Rod as a salary dump, but most teams that understand how players age and how good of a reliever that K-Rod actually is and therefore realize there are probably 50+ other relievers in baseball that could have performed as well as 2016 K-Rod did with serious downside beyond that. Point being, I doubt there was much of a bidding war for K-Rod's services.
  12. bill hAll Star
    That $3-4 million in salary relief will likely just be offset in 3 or 4 years in arbitration costs for the guys knocking on the door that have to come up early. Of course, if this is the best you can get, then take it...I'd just bring some AAAA fodder in though to finish the majority of this year and then get the important guys up next year.
  13. bill hAll Star
    I'm not sure Reed is really majors ready, nor is he destined to be a good major league player. Lots of strikeouts and pedestrian minors stats. He's young so I'm not punting on him and I generally only follow our minors players statistically, so somebody can explain to me the hype about him, but the Pirates have plenty of mediocre MLB right-handed players on their roster that they can shuffle the defensive positions around to get on the field. They seem reluctant to call up Meadows who probably isn't ready, but they can probably get by with Frazier, Bell, and probably some scrap heap FA signing for a few more weeks before they can prep for Marte returning in mid-July.
  14. bill hAll Star
    +1. Dont get it. Unfortunately, sometimes 13 innings in spring does not a career make. I get that it's a weird situation where you claim to open competition and then the competition doesn't matter, but Hughes has had a solid career as a groundball pitcher. Cravy is just a guy. I'm not really stoked about Hughes given that he's a bit older but I'd bet on him being more successful than Cravy.
  15. bill hAll Star
    nice
  16. bill hAll Star
    Other than the longstanding "why didn't they protect Diaz" debate which obviously is not currently relevant, who is worth a 40-man spot right now and what is the value of it? Garza is a heavily sunk cost, but he has 2 forms of value to me: 1. The Rangers paid $2 million dollars for 2 weeks of Kyle Lohse last year. Contending teams will be dying for any sort of pitching late in the year. Garza may be able to squeeze an ounce of trade value out. Even a million bucks saved in a trade would be nice. 2. He's another arm to soak up innings to keep service clocks from starting.
  17. bill hAll Star
    I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you. Sorry, I get that way when digesting info in the moment. Adrian Gonzalez for 5years playing with Dodgers, being a year older than Braun and contract over 20mil paid yearly. Has only provided an .807 OPS at 1st base. Yet been valued as 14.2 BWAR. While BRef gives him a 0 type Def WAR value over those 5years. I'd think Braun could provide a 0 type Def WAR value at 1b. And if an .807OPS makes you a 3WAR 1b. Braun has 12-13WAR to give these 4years if not more. I'm not 100% sure what goes into bbref's WAR, but I'd imagine home park and where most of the divisional games are played probably factors in. He gets ~20 games in the friendly Coors and Chase, but he plays about 100 games at Dodger Stadium, AT&T, and Petco. If you look at Gonzalez's splits, his OPS is always .20-.30 points higher on the road in his Dodger years. I'd imagine that that is factored into BWAR, but I could be wrong. Coincidentally, Braun's career numbers in the cavernous NL West parks are really, really good over his career. All of that said, I'd imagine that Braun puts up about an .850-.860 OPS (full season home and away) playing out there when the numbers all settle out. He doesn't get his comfy .900+ home OPS to prop him up anymore if he goes out to LAD...I'm going to assume that he stops OPSing nearly 1.000 combined @LAD/@SF/@SD like he has for the 70 games he's played there in his career.
  18. bill hAll Star
    He's a solid pitcher but I do worry about even the post-injury cost given his Petco deflation of the opponent/ERA type numbers overall. At a very low cost, I'd bring him in.
  19. bill hAll Star
    I am having issues with the idea that so many people can't comprehend this Britton issue. Other baseball/statistical arguments actually have some leeway. This is just so straightforward. I won't really destroy him for using some pretty good relievers in matchups (though, really, Britton should have started the 9th)...but it is incomprehensible how somebody (so many former players, especially) cannot wrap their heads around this. EDIT: Sorry, I didn't mean people on this thread. Mostly former/current players and media that are either defending him or failing to explain the simple, clear percentages.
  20. bill hAll Star
    According to B-R, Reddick has a career WAR of 17.8 with 5.05 years of service time, which comes to be 3.52 WAR/year. Braun has a career WAR of 44.3 over 8.13 years of service time, or 5.44 WAR/year. If we want to look at just the last two years, Braun has a WAR of 8.1 and Reddick has a WAR of 5.4. Braun is more than slightly superior to Reddick. He's almost worth two more wins per year than Reddick, and I've seen calculations that estimate one WAR to be worth on average $7-8M in salary. Even if it is more like $5M, Braun, in theory, should be worth at least $8-10M/year more on the open market than Reddick. If Reddick can be had for 4/$80, then he is either grossly overpaid or Braun is an incredible bargain. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, leaning towards Braun being a bargain. It's kind of impossible to just throw a random name out there for "similar" player so I apologize. I'm just going to start saying "player A" when I make examples. I always make the mistake of actually using a name, exposing the post to be nitpicked if a player isn't exactly similar. Just imagine the pool of OFs that are free agents instead...there are some similarly valued, some slightly lower value. Regardless, there are maybe 10 OFs that you can sign to start without giving up a prospect and possibly for less money. Yeah, you may have to give up a draft pick to get them, but you may get one on the other end.
  21. bill hAll Star
    I've been one drumming up that Braun actually has value since last year, but I will say that the issue is the idea of a trade vs. signing. I'm not sure that anyone with the value of a Braun will be a free agent or also available via trade in 2017 or 2018, but here's the issue: Say I'm a team looking for an OF...I can sign Reddick on a "fair" contract at 4 years, $80 million, or I can acquire Braun at a similar fair contract. Even though one could argue that Braun is a slightly superior player, would you, as the Dodgers or Red Sox or whomever want to just pay the money, or would you want to give up 2 good prospects AND pay the money? Sure, the Brewers can meet these teams halfway and maybe pay a year of salary to get back a prospect or two, but that is where I worry that the market will stall, even though I think Braun is a very worthy player of his contract.
  22. bill hAll Star
    Do you really think if we don't have an abundance of SS, CF or pitching prospects that we couldn't trade one of them for a 1B prospect when we actually need one? What are you going to do? Trade Arcia/etc. and let some unknown play? Risky Trade a prospect for a prospect? Hard and unlikely idea Trade a bunch of high quality prospects for a short term proven MLB player? Meh Big money for a FA? Yikes Take a lesser player in a trade because he plays a position of need? Yikes. You just listed 5 avenues to fill 1B if we're still missing one. Given that in any occasion where those 5 scenarios would need to come in play, that means out of our abundance of SS/OF prospects, we have too many good ones. So for example, Arcia is a stud at SS, Villar is not a flash in the pan and is really good at 2B/3B, Diaz is arriving at 2B. Say Erceg is coming up for 3B or we have another stud SS that we had drafted/acquired coming up. "Overpaying" for an mid 30s Jose Abreu to play 1B (total example picked out of the sky, not meant to debate whether or not he'd be worth it in 2019 - and yes, I know he's a FA in 2020...too lazy to look up a better example) given the rest of the guys are all good and cheap. Or maybe Villar could be dealt for a 1B in a similar situation. Or maybe Erceg goes for another stud prospect about to become 1B. Or Erceg moves there for a few years. So many options.
  23. bill hAll Star
    While I'm generally a "save the service time" guy, I have chosen to be neutral on the Arcia news. All of that said, not saving him in the minors until May or June of 2017 cuts off a year of your negotiating for a long-term deal. Arcia knows that he now is a free agent in 2022 and not 2023 now, so he can negotiate as such. We'll probably still get one less year of him if we sign an extension.
  24. bill hAll Star
    Norris isn't a bounceback candidate. He's never hit righties in his entire career and I doubt he'll learn to now. He's Yuniesky Betancourt bad against RHP and unfortunately that makes up 2/3 to 3/4 of the pitchers that he'll face. One organization knew that and positioned him as such to mostly face lefties, then sold high. The other organization did not realize this and continues to play him against righties, where he is an automatic out. All of that said, he's supposedly a good defender...so if they had gone for him as a stopgap and all it cost was the $...sure? Doesn't really matter anymore, though.
  25. bill hAll Star
    In English, please.
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