bill hAll Star

I do not covet this trophy

It's possible that the Tigers just decline that option and he's available for less next year. Or that he's available for less in a trade in the winter. Highly unlikely they do that. Actually there is no chance they do that. Ian Kinsler's option is actually $12mil, but $5mil is already sunk cost in the $5mil buyout so picking it up is only an additional $7mil. They would pick it up just to trade him worst case. Ian Kinsler isn't having a great year, but still providing near average offense with good defense. Yeah, hadn't looked into the numbers. They won't dump him then but I'd still rather not try to acquire him unless it was basically a salary dump + low ceiling prospect.

It's possible that the Tigers just decline that option and he's available for less next year. Or that he's available for less in a trade in the winter.

I, too, have a bit of that concern but it is not necessarily as trade chips but rather just the pieces that we have going forward. If Hader can't develop a changeup and Brinson has holes in his swing, the flagships of our future aren't going to be as elite as we thought. One could argue that it's also hurting trade value but even if you told me that Hader and Brinson (and others) would not be as good as we would hope, I still would not deal them to put all of our chips on the table for 2018.

Brewers need starting pitching..... Gray would be an answer. Now, that probably isn't enough for playoffs, but next year would look a lot better. Also, this rebuild has to include some key trades every year to retool and upgrade talent. This could be one. All of this rebuilding has been with an eye towards the 2018-2025 timeframe. All of the controllable talent the Brewers have should be able to play together with depth (and plenty of money to spend around them) over that time. I think you and many are conceding that while Gray would help this year, it's probably not enough. "Controllable past this year" on Gray is somewhat misleading. We're watering down 2019 and beyond to probably take 2nd or 3rd place again against this stacked Cubs team that will probably have Yu Darvish in the rotation next season. The depressing part is that I think the Cubs are going to be better than the Brewers no matter what for the next 3-4 years, but I'd like to have a long window to try to beat them and at worst take the throne when the Cubs relinquish it in 3-4 years.

Add Sonny Gray, Straily, and Justin Wilson to the Brewers and I'm not sure we catch the Cubs or take a WC spot and I don't think it helps for the future either. The second best thing Stearns can do today (the first best would be to flip Swarzak and other pieces) is to stand pat.

I'd rather flip Swarzak this weekend, though I'd absolutely be listening on Knebel. Take a lower level prospect for Swarzak and you're in essence trading Cordell for a younger prospect.

I'd absolutely eat Zimmermann's deal for Fulmer. Reasonable buy low guy to have as your #5 starter and we can absolutely absorb it.

I've always been in the camp of holding our prospects but another part of me wonders if this exact same Cubs team (through their mid/late 20s) plus some cocktail of Darvish/Otani/Harper/etc. through 2021 or 2022 is going to be head-and-shoulders above the Brewers every year until then. Plus you've got good organizations in the Cards and Pirates and the Reds who are also rebuilding.

Can I just ask why you'd prefer to trade for the guy that is almost 7 years older, is insanely expensive and having a significantly worse season? Giving up few good prospects vs many good prospects. Also, to the original post: Taking on Verlander's deal probably won't affect the Brewers' ability to spend too much.

The reason why the Zimmermann/Verlander-type salary dumps interest me is the contract length and Brewers positioning. Right now, for the next 2 seasons, the Brewers probably will have about 20 of the 25 guys on their roster set next year and that collection of players is due a combined total of probably $40-$50 million. Assuming Mark is willing to pay $110+ million when the team is competing, and I think he's fired the starting gun on that, I'm not sure the Brewers will be able to fill that payroll even if they try. Of course they aren't required to, but if Mark is saying, "use this money now or lose it," then shorter deals are much more desirable. They may only have 5 or 6 acquisition spots to fill and those players would have to average $10 million/year at least. Given players that make that much money typically will require a 4-8 year contract and probably come with the same risk as a Verlander or Zimmermann, that is the one reason that I take a look at those deals assuming it is essentially a salary dump. If Mark has earmarked that money already, these are ways to bring in a decent player on a short-term deal. Again, those specific players may not be worth it even given the constraints, but that is why I will listen to these overpaid players that have 1-3 years remaining on their deals that are being offered in salary dumps.

I've said it on other threads but a lot of the Verlander stuff depends on the new ownership. I think they realize that they're on a 3-year rebuild. IF ownership is willing to have a $150 payroll next year and $120 the year after as they rebuild, I don't see the point of just giving away Verlander for nothing but salary relief. They can hold out for prospects.

He is owed $56M plus a possible $22M vesting option plus the remainder of 2017. To the Dodgers that is chump change but the Brewers have never taken on anything like that by many orders of magnitude. With the Brewers payroll being so low this is intriguing but does this hamper future moves? Right now the only guys we have under contract for next year are Braun and Thames so our payroll is gong to go way up whether we are winning or not. Yeah, the Brewers with Verlander, Braun, Thames, and the 15 other guys on the 25 that we're fairly certain about would add up to about $70 million for 2018 and 2019. I'd bet that Mark could spend up to $120 nowadays if he wanted to so there would be room for filling out the last 5 or so slots. The thing with the roster is that we don't have many spots where we'd be dropping a ton of money to upgrade. If the $22 million option vests - I'd call it a victory. That means he'd be a top 5 Cy Young candidate in 2019. This is like the Eric Gagne contract in my opinion. 80% of fans will be losing their mind when he has a 4.50 ERA next year because he's getting paid $28 million. However, it's not a "huge undertaking" because it's not like it's a 7-year deal. It's only a 2-year commitment unless he's really good, which then I'm fine taking the 3rd year. Same with Gagne. It was an "overpay" of $10 million but who cares? It was mostly a strikeout of a contract but it was off the books the following year. It won't set the Brewers back a ton unless they miss out on some big ticket trade or signing for 2019 that also has a massive contract. With the way he's pitching I'm not sure I really want him in the first place - but if Mark insists on spending $ at the major league level, this still won't really affect our ability to buy players or keep our own going forward so go ahead if he wishes.

I'd love to add Verlander to the deal to not give up many prospects but that feels too good to be true to me.

I'm pretty much at this. For those who pay a bit more attention: did Cooper still play a bit of OF and is a good defensive 1B? The only way you really downgrade here is if Cooper hits like Aguilar but is a better defender because given Aguilar's build he should probably be a DH.

Per Rosenthal. From Yankees.

The Cubs do have until 2022 to reload their farm system. They'll probably just fill any holes with $20 million dollar players each year until then. Rizzo, Hendricks, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, and Bryant are around through '21, Lester '20, Heyward '22, and Contreras is '23. The 2021-2022 years will be interesting. Will they have a farm to replenish things? Will they have Harper, Quintana, and Darvish on their roster all making $30+ million/year? Will those guys be earning their keep or just dead money?

In 2 starts in July he has a 5.59 ERA. If I had 2 starts and one was against a good (now relatively healthy) Rangers offense and the other was at Coors Field I may be happy with that ERA.

It affects the Brewers for sure, but *this sounds insane to say* the only major mismatch if lining those guys up in 2017 is Quintana is better than what we know of Guerra right now. He could return to '16 Guerra or Woodruff could hit the ground running and I'd call it mostly even...heck, I'd even maybe give the Brewers the edge in almost all of those matchups*. * - this probably does put a little bit too much early 2017 spin on things.

This basically puts the Cubs' next 5 years into how they spend their free agency money now. Their starting 8 will be pretty good and is all under control for pretty much that long plus Zobrist and Heyward. I'll split the difference and say that Hendricks/Lester/Quintana are all very solid mid-rotation guys at this point in their careers. If they can buy an ace, restock the bullpen, and add an elite bat at a spot of need that may come up then they still are going to be tough to beat over the next ~5 years.

Agreed. I can't spin this into a positive for us. If he were a rental, sure, but Quintana is a great move for the near future for them as well. Its exactly what their rotation needs. Jimenez and Cease are big losses for sure but for what they're getting, not a huge price to pay. I'm at the stage of "could be really good" or "could be really bad" so you can definitely spin it positively. Quintana isn't prime CC so it's possible that the Cubs will still not catch the Brewers this season. Beyond this year, yes this makes them better, but their rotation in general after this year is very in flux still and their farm system will not be easily replenishing the pros anymore.

Probably not much of a motivation for the Braves to make that deal but I think that's a ripoff. Both guys are "down" but Teheran has much more sustained success and he's more valuable when he's up.

I'm a bit more bullish than some on them. Polanco might be finally getting it going, Marte is back in a few days, Bell is good enough, and their pitching staff has been solidifying all around. The bullpen is not as much of a disaster as it was earlier this year and Taillon, Nova, Cole is good. I think that Kuhl and Williams are decent enough. I wouldn't bet on them to get anywhere near the Brewers but the team doesn't seem that much different than the 98 win team of 2 years ago.

I think given the situation ESPN is in I'd do exactly what they are doing. They're stretched too thin and Sunday/Monday/Wednesday Night Baseball is not exciting to people anymore. Everyone can watch their home team, stream if they are out-of-market, and MLB Network nudged ESPN out of any other sort of hardcore fan niche. It's crappy coverage but they have no choice on the financial end of things and most of it (beyond maybe not having foresight signing the deal) is now out of their control. They're riding it out until they can re-up a massive MLB rights deal (probably not) or just basically let it slide off.

Yeah, I think Kuhl and Williams are better than the numbers show. Throw more elite defense in there behind them and they can make a run. Polanco is also finally coming around.