bill hAll Star

My pessimism isn't even that Attanasio is dead-set on being competitive next year. He may think he can "rebuild" and compete in 2017 or 2018. The problem is, I feel as though he's willing to let Luc and Braun's value (heck, maybe even Gomez this year) sit on the shelf and devalue while he does that. "Yeah, I'll restock and still have the faces of my franchise in 2018!" I am worried they won't sell at the highest point with any of these guys and we'll be left with the 32 year-old version of Yadier Molina-level-value of Lucroy with $70 million left on his contract in 2018 and Braun continuing to depreciate.

I feel like a new era of futility is going to be opened up if they drop the dumptruck of money for Lucroy with not much else coming up the pike in the next few years.

Sorry to say it, but it's going to be either a 3 year rebuild with an incredibly low ceiling where they need to rebuild again -- or it's going to be a 3-year rebuild with just trading Braun or LuCroy with a chance for some promise. LuCroy or Braun 3 years from - I can almost guarantee that one of them at least is to be an albatross contract or completely gone via FA (Luc). Mark can either choose to appease the fans who come out to tailgate and enjoy seeing Luc in the lineup or he can try to rebuild his farm system.

Well, he probably will be worse on the field, but it doesn't hurt to take a flyer.

I guess Bethancourt has potential enough to have once been ranked in the top 100 prospects, but he hasn't really shown much of it on either side of the ball at any level so far. Yeah. Done deal.

I'm not signing Zimmerman for any large amount of money. Not a high K guy or major power guy (which could be good long-term) but he already has had plenty of arm issues. Could be DOA when he signs his next contract. Either that or he's going to be just "pretty good" in the middle of a high salary team's rotation. And yeah, that 2017 lineup tells you why Lucroy and Braun should be traded. Those guys would be the best bats in the lineup by a country mile unless Arcia really blows up...because by then Braun will be in the twilight of his career and Lucroy will have 1 year left on his contract.

As I had said on the other board - re: Garza getting on a roll - I'd have shuffled the rotation so he avoids Coors this weekend. Lohse as well, but he looks like his value is dead anyways.

Buxton is probably going to be more Cameron Maybin (earlier days) in his first few years than he will be McCutchen. I agree they are still sellers soon -- the only thing they have going for them is Detroit's crappy rotation, Cleveland's inexplicably bad record with that rotation and solid offense, the horrible White Sox offense, and KC not being that elite may keep them in the thing.

I think the Twins are hitting reality right now. Torii Hunter's "leadership" suddenly isn't winning them games. If we're going to trade with them, it has to be now.

Harrison started off slow (and has been cool the past week or so) but put up a .760 in May. I wasn't a huge fan of him as it was with limited power, but he's fine in there as the super-utility guy. Everyday 3B may be asking a bit much because he's a .700ish guy but plays good enough defense. I doubt they'd move Alvarez to 3B this year because he is always a -5 UZR/150 guy at 3B and last year was -19 UZR/150. They are sending in a late-game replacement of Sean Rodriguez at 1B for him...and that's 1B. Lind and Alvarez would be 2 bad defenders when they face righties. If they feel like a mid-season move of Alvarez back to 3B is OK, then maybe platooning Lind/Hart (or another RH pickup instead of Hart) and Alvarez with Kang/Harrison while Harrison plays super-utility, that would be a modest improvement. That said, I don't see that as what they'd be looking for. Finding a RH 1B for really cheap might be where they go if they think Hart is completely done at this point.

Also, depending on the details of the trade, Aramis has $6 million in deferred payments queued up for 2017 and 2018. If the Mets would just make a straight-up trade, it would essentially cost the Brewers nothing (or they'd save a bit) and other than the Niese buyout if they so choose and still have him, the money would end in 2016 with him. And then, again, you'd have Niese as a trade asset next year instead of just letting Aramis hang around and then having to pay him $3 million in 2017 and $3 million in 2018. I would present these as (realistic) options: A: Very, very small chance - A team is willing to take Aramis at full price and offer a flawed prospect. B: A team is willing to give a flawed prospect up, but the Brewers pay most of his contract. C: Another team sends a veteran (Niese) that has a year or two left. This player likely offers nothing but an opportunity to try to get "more" for next deadline. D: Let Aramis expire - pay him the deferred money in 2017/2018. I'd rank the options A, B, C, D. A is extremely unlikely. B and C are up for debate. D is OK but that deferred money is annoying. If they take on Aramis' deferred money in option C, I'd almost bump that up to 2nd in the list.

You can flip Niese later. I'm not one that cares about having a "filler" in the rotation during the lean/rebuilding years, but it pushes off a possible rehab project that you can flip for something better next year. I would expect to not spend any money on external FAs other than a few very cheap reclamation projects anyways and deal away more money. If Niese is really done for the long-term, then yeah, I'd just let Ramirez expire. But as Ramirez's current trade value stands, you're going to get zero out of him. Nobody is going to give up a player in the minors that has any chance of making the majors for Ramirez. You're pushing out the opportunity to get something for the asset at the cost of burning $9 million on an over-the-hill pitcher next year. It's Mark's call. He seems like a guy that will need to have some "stable" vet(s) at the top of his rotation anyways while they rebuild (again, not something I endorse). Is he willing to take a risk of a net of something like $7 million (getting out of Ramirez's money put paying Niese his) to maybe get something more out of this? If your projected payroll next year is $70 million once you deal Gomez, Broxton (buyout), Lind (buyout), and maybe maybe Segura, Luc, or Braun...You have very little committed beyond 2015 other than a few years of Garza and several more of Braun. Taking on salary in a trade just for next year as a risk to create more value becomes an option because the payroll could/would be low 2016-2017 as they rebuild. Now, if Mark wants to pocket the money after going "over-budget" the past few years or thinks that this would be good money to slot into international scouting or coaching salaries, then by all means, go ahead.

I'm one that has always fully supported building through the draft and not spending on some of these free agents, but I'd absolutely just take Niese or Gee back. I have my doubts that Aramis restores any sort of trade value and there is also the downside that he gets hurt between now and the deadline. I'm probably assuming too much of a firesale, but right now Cot's has the Brewers at $56 million next year (without some of the options) before some of the guys hit arby. That means probably $70 million when guys have arby factored in. Remove Gomez's salary from that among other things and add Niese and you're around $65-$70. That puts you down around where the Astros and Marlins are as the lowest in baseball. I would still look into dealing Braun and Luc as well which could put you down towards $50 with basically zero guaranteed other than Garza beyond 2016. Sign some Matt Joyce reclamation project contracts for 1 year/$2 million and prepare to deal them at the deadline in 2016. Deal Niese at the 2016 deadline. Call it a day.

Yeah, I love me some left-handed bats for platoons so somebody's going to want Parra. I was just noting a few teams that already have 3 guys at the LH spots in the OF and may not want to add another one. Injuries can change that, though. There will absolutely be a taker for Parra.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/trade-notes-sellers-dodgers-papelbon-jays-twins.html

FWIW - Lohse's xFIP is basically in line with where it was in previous seasons at about 4.05. Seems that the ball has just flown out a bit more than it should on him with a 17% HR/FB rate instead of his standard career rate which is a notch below 10%. His GB% has slowly gone down over the past few years and it continues to gradually drop this year. Is that the slight age loss allowing that or is it just a bit of bad luck? He's fared better in Citi Field and got throttled in Cincy which is what might seem to support that xFIP and HR/FB blip. Again, I don't know. Could be that he's just lost a touch or that 4 or 5 50/50 HRs have gone out due to where the games are being played. As it stands, Lohse and Garza are slotted to pitch at Coors field next week. I'd find a way to reshuffle the rotation so that the Coors rotation is Nelson, Cravy, Jungmann (or whoever the other 3 in the rotation are). Who cares if those guys get lit up there? I'd rather not see Garza/Lohse's #s balloon. Maybe other GMs can see through that but much harder to market it.

Betances will do just fine there. They probably have a handful of other capable arms if Betances gets hurt.

The point of your list is valid but there are a handful of teams on there where you've listed RH platoon options as the struggling players, which makes Parra not a fit. A handful of those teams have LH options across the board and need help on the RH side. TEX probably doesn't care too much to upgrade over Martin as a good defender and LH bat + Hamilton's possible return + Gallo playing OF along with Choo. The Twins are going to fall fast out of the race but they do have Arcia available as a LH bat if they want to make the call. The other guys are defensive players anyways (part of Parra's strength). Toronto might have Saunders back but they could use a lefty maybe. Yankees could platoon Chris Young/Garrett Jones if they grow sick of Beltran. Cubs and Braves you've listed RH struggling bats so I'm not sure they could use him really. That said, I agree that Parra will have some value, especially as the injury concerns start to clear up by the deadline.

I'm in MN, too, and hadn't heard that. I knew he wanted to come back a la Garnett but didn't know he was so set on staying. Well, it's not like Hunter is a terrible player but looks like if they extend him they can light another $10-15 million on fire unless Buxton/Sano really hit the ground running next year.

I dunno...Scooter as a platoon guy might get you a .650-.670 OPS in Citi and his defense isn't great for a 2B. With a possibility of Wright returning, Flores, Tejada, Campbell, and Murphy obviously coming back...they may need a short-term 2B, but I've gotta think they could go get one with a higher ceiling than Scooter. I'm not saying they wouldn't take him, but he's probably not at the top of the list.

I think that was the original plan it seemed with Hunter to maybe be dealt, and now he may stay. Their swoon has begun but I think it's going to be really hard for them now to fall so far out of contention that he should be dealt.

I don't mind the contract figures, to be honest. I hated the Suppan deal when it happened for other reasons, but any FA contract is known to be a dud in its final year. I'm much more disappointed in the inability to bring up any sort of impact from the minors in this time and when to sell high on what they have. #TradeLucroyNow

They can have Lucroy for a treasure trove of prospects. "All Star" Kurt Suzuki has surprisingly dropped back to career norms after the one BABIP-infused season and could stand to be replaced, even though they did sign him for I believe 2015/2016.

A reversion to the mean of some kind is surely in order at some point, but living here in Minnesota and watching them daily it is a completely different air. I would liken it to something we experienced with the Bucks this past season...a team that was in DIRE need of a new voice combined with a bunch of slightly overachieving players. I think they'll be in the race until September, but eventually will fade out of a postseason spot. Definitely Molitor (subtracting Gardy) and Torii have impacted the squad. It's the best of both worlds for the tightwad Pohlads...they can sell some hope right now while not starting the clocks on Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc and having the fans get mad at them. Sure...those guys helped but I think a lot less than people are giving them credit for. There are things moving up and things moving down like most do for a team in a given season. Mauer has been even worse in his decline, Santana is not having the luckiest BABIP season anymore, etc. The team as a whole may be giving it a bit more of a college try, but I think they're a 77-78ish win team on paper that is probably going to win 82-83 after this little surge of luck and Moliter early in the year. The difference is pitching - and I'm not sure how much new leadership really helps that on a yearly basis. I think they are going to hit a little rut here and fall to 3-4 games above .500 and slowly decline to .500 by year's end. Of course - trades/injuries can change that. Anyways, I'd trade with them - but I'm not sure we can get any of their big name prospects. The real question for their immediate future is - who will Buxton be? A lot of guys like Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin struggled early in their careers. The development may take awhile, which Twins fans don't really want to hear. He may just be a defensive stud that is a decent .270/.330/.410 guy at the plate until he starts hitting. Who knows, though.

Lefty 3B bat that profiled as an .800+ guy. I'd take him.