bill hAll Star

The Twins are in such an odd position right now. They are "rising" but other than Gibson, it isn't due to the next young wave of players. Guys that had some lucky hot streaks last year like Danny Santana and to an extend, Eduardo Escobar are being outed as frauds...Arcia was supposed to be a 25 HR, .800+ platoon bat and has provided nothing. Ervin Santana is out but Pelfrey has pitched with luck involved better than Santana might have. Everyone in MN is attributing it to Molitor and Hunter's new leadership. That can add a few wins but it's asinine to assume it's that big of a deal. Things will level out soon but maybe they can make a trade to stay in contention if they so choose. It's been "pretty good pitching across the board" and somehow finding a way to crush lefties and mediocre pitching, which they've seen a lot of.

What about the Greinke and K-Rod trades? I know they were giving up on that season but those were established vet sell-offs.

Define "high upside."

Segura for Matz? Really? They'd laugh and hang up. They've got Wilmer and Tejada, one if which is relegated to a bench role if they're fully healthy. I'll bet Segura rarely flirts with being better than .700 in his best years at Citi Field. 6 years of a projected top-end of the rotation pitcher for 3 years of a pretty good fielding SS (that may not project to stay that way for that long) that hovers around average with his bat which comes with zero patience.

This isn't going to help, looking at the bigger problems on the team... I feel sorry for Seattle fans that they have one of the handful of MLB managers who believe that the 9th inning is played on some strange planet where one must complete 3 outs, a skill that can only be achieved by a select few players... http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2015/06/03/mariners-notebook-mcclendon-sees-no-alternative-to-sticking-with-rodney/ I'd call and make an offer of K-Rod, as he is one of probably 30-35 guys in the league that have the special ability to get 3 9th inning outs.

You guys should compare Gallo's minor league numbers and progression to Russell Branyan's. Gallo will love playing in Texas, though, with that porch in RF. Could hit 40+ HR there.

I know they won one without him, but I think Boston is missing Theo a bit. They've had some bad luck with injuries the past year or two and Ortiz is just getting old, but I have no idea what they were doing with pitching this year. It seems like they actively targeted 3 or 4 #3/#4 type 6-7 K/9 starting pitchers that are in their mid-20s (30 for Masterson) and wanted to mold them into #2-types. So far, the returns are pretty sad. Kelly, Miley, Masterson, and Porcello are all getting hammered.

2012 was such an odd year. It was blown almost entirely by the bullpen early in the season. Wolf was pretty bad, too. Looking at the stats, Roenicke dubbed Loe his "7th inning guy" and let a heavy R/L splits guy face 40% LH batters. Axford was tipping pitches (supposedly), K-Rod struggled out of the gates. Greinke was having off-and-on elbow issues. They almost stormed back to the playoffs over the last month or two. It would have been interesting to see what that team would have done. Their pitching for the playoffs would not have been very good at all but that lineup was incredible by the end of the year.

I'm only half on board with you here. I think there was regression coming for McHugh, Keuchel has found an incredible ground ball pitch but he still has some regression due, Ramon Hernandez is very dicey at the bottom of that rotation. That said, Carter is one of the few guys in the league that need to be "seeing the ball well" (contrary to every announcer thinking that every player needs this) to succeed and he's just hit his stride. Springer is coming back around...Lowrie/Correa are not here/hitting. I see some good and bad signs for them. Who's going to catch them? The Angels, who are trotting out guys pitching way over their heads (Wilson, Santiago) and the uninspiring Weaver/Shoemaker 4 of every 5 days? Plus, the bottom of their lineup gets really dicey and beyond Trout, Poo Holes and Calhoun are not necessarily studs. Texas? They have a very nice lineup for that ballpark of slugging depth. Not sure if their pitching holds up as well as it has all year, though. Seattle does seem a bit dangerous but Paxton is out again and they are struggling to keep their pitching consistency beyond Felix. I really liked Oakland to hold on even after having to deal away a lot of their high-end players before the season, but they are dead in the water.

About the only thing exciting remaining in this season is for the Rosenthal, Heyman, etc. rumors to start flying in. I have almost zero interest in the game-to-game action other than seeing guys boost their trade value up. C'mon! I'm getting impatient, Mark/Doug!

Morneau and Lind are pretty much the same guy at this point so it'll be interesting. Lind has an affordable option for next year, is healthy today, and is younger so hopefully that pushes him up in the offer list. Morneau had a bit of fluky road success last year but if you take out the Coors adjustment, he's a .270/.330/.460 guy probably that platoons. I'd say that's basically what Lind is with a hair more slugging/OBP but even heavier splits.

I don't think the Mets trade Syndergaard, but Cuddyer is definitely a bench bat at this point. He's not hitting in Coors Field anymore.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I'd trade Braun right now. I think plenty of teams would take on the money.

Braun isn't an asset with his age, general frailness, and his extension unless he is hitting the way he is hitting right now. Right now, he has trade value, probably significant trade value. Who knows in 2016 or 2017? Since the Brewers are currently 16-31 with no sign of life. Anyone who can bring back young, elite, controllable assets should be moved. If Miguel Cabrera was available right now - 5/$100...would you sign him? I would if I was a competitive team fully knowing that he may not be valuable in 2019/2020. That's a steal. Braun and Cabrera, WAR-wise, were both 5-7 WAR guys until 2013/2014 when Braun's scandal/injury hit. Cabrera is a year older. This is the best comparison I can think of off the top of my head, but you get the idea. There will be a line of teams willing to take on 5/$100.

I think the manager matters a lot less than some do. I still think Yost is a dolt but his team is good enough - so they are winning. I would prefer they get a good manager that is good with the players and understands the modern game...Once that happens, I hope they stick with him but I really don't care about these deck chairs on the Titanic until the real problem of pitching talent and minor league depth is fixed.

I wonder how much Aramis would work there. To win in a pitcher's park like that, you get a bunch of good ptichers and fill in with pitchers that can pitch to contact. Put good defensive players out there that can hit for contact as well (hello, Padres, are you listening?). Duffy was a pretty good minor league hitter and good defender as noted above. I'll bet at Miller Park the guy could push a .750 OPS for the season and be a great defender. That's about what Aramis hits right now but Duffy is a young/good defender. Of course, now that the Giants have gotten this incredible stretch of their cushy road matchups out of the way, Duffy is going to sink down to a low .700s line maybe...which is fine with that stadium adjustment. For comparison...look at Belt and Crawford's All Star-worthy lines right now and watch them sink in the next few months now that they've gotten their Miller/Coors trips out of the way. McGehee would struggle almost anywhere but I'll bet Aramis struggles almost as much as Duffy there. Maybe a bit more power as that park is OK for righties but Aramis might not outproduce or be a better option than Duffy. Which brings me back to "why the heck did they go with McGehee?"

Miami is a pitcher's park and the NL East is a horrendously bad offensive division save for Bryce Harper and Stanton.

The Brewers are sitting at where the Cubs and Astros sat in 2008/2009ish. A 5-7 year stretch with 3 or 4 pretty good years. The Astros got to the World Series in 2005 and the Cubs were close in 2003. The Brewers almost got there in 2011. The Brewers are not in the Cardinals territory. In NFL equivalency, the Cardinals are somewhat in Patriots/Packers territory of organizations that are now in multiple decades of a working system. The Brewers' NFL equivalent is maybe the recent Vikings, Jets, or Bears surges. Maybe not the right way of doing things but some flashy/risky moves that worked but still find themselves looking up at the model organization save for maybe one year. That is longform way of saying "you cannot ask the Brewers to rebuild like the Cardinals." They can eventually become the Cardinals, but they'd still need a tear-down if that is going to happen anytime soon. Here are some similarities with the Astros/Cubs (obviously you have to adjust for market size) -2003 the Cubs fall just short of the World Series and 2007/2008 they have strong teams that don't show up in the playoffs. -In 2001 (after some good late 90s years as well) Houston makes the playoffs. In 2004/2005 they fall just short of the WS/then lose the WS The Brewers followed this same thing (Cubs were backwards) of a playoff appearance and WS/near WS appearance shortly after. -In 2009/2010 both the Cubs and Astros tried to push it with their veteran teams but they were beginning to leak. The Brewers are hitting this stage. 2009/2010 Astros had a back-end of prime Berkman. 2015 Brewers have back-end of prime Braun. 2009/2010 had back-end of prime Soriano. 2009/2010 Astros had over-the-hill Carlos Lee. The Cubs had over-the-hill (comparatively) Derrek Lee, the Brewers have over-the-hill Aramis. 2009/2010 had prime but soon-to-be FA Aramis Ramirez. Brewers have prime but soon-to-be FA Carlos Gomez. Astros had prime but soon-to-be FA Hunter Pence. There are many more comparisons to be made in that list (some of the ages are stretched here and there) but the point is that the Brewers are entering the point where the franchise falls off the cliff and isn't able to maximize the assets. The Cubs didn't get a ton for Soriano nor the Astros for Berkman. The 'stros got a decent package (at the time) for Oswalt. Point is: Sell now. Maybe the Brewers will only have to suffer through 2 years and not 4 like the Cubs and Astros did.

A sidenote here, but it boggles my mind that a recent 3-time champion would pin their 3B position to a guy that clearly had out-of-his mind luck last year. This sort of season seemed to be seen coming from miles away.

I've thought that Bleacher Report is an utter joke of fanboys that don't follow the game enough to be real writers but are assumed to be real writers due to the site's prominence. Not that there is anything wrong with people blogging, it is just that others that read it take it as more professional than it really is (not insinuating our poster above is, because Garza/Cecchini is not far-fetched). Here is an absolute gem of an LOL from that article about Garza: My goodness...how could they be winning with a LOW BATTING AVERAGE? Better trade for a solid, yet declining player to fill in for one of the top young players in baseball or a very solid hitter (eventually) in Gattis...because batting average.

Heck, if I was Moreno, I'd be getting impatient with the roidless Poo Holes who seems to be a low .700s OPS guy at this point of his career. I realize that one cannot expect a huge return in these deals, but how is Featherston's defense? I ask because I'm not enamored with his hitting potential going forward. He OPSed .760 in AA last year and he's already 25 years old. I agree with the rest of your post but I'd ask for something younger that is more boom/bust instead of Featherston in this deal. He seems like "nice RH utility hitter" like maybe a Gordon Beckham-type production. They do have Heaney waiting in the wings and their starters have righted the ship, but I still contend they have some use for Lohse. I'm still not trusting the recent Weaver recovery and Santiago/Wilson are not going to sustain this. Shoemaker is a HR machine and might get demoted soon.

The Brewers are smack-dab in the middle of a good stretch for the pitchers to improve their numbers. The Rockies, Cards, Pirates, Reds, Cubs, and Dodgers all have good hitters that tee off against RHP and they crushed the Brewers' staff to bad ERAs early. Now they've had the White Sox who can't hit RHP, a series against a mediocre offense in Citi Field, the slap-hitting Braves (those 11 runs were basically on all singles), the Giants (who are decent at hitting on the road). The Twins' offense has packed some punch this year but it's all been against LHP. Even the Tigers in the recent stretch sport a split of .823 OPS vs. LHP and .750 vs. RHP. Point being, this is the time to send that ERA back down for righties. If one believes that GMs want to see good current-season numbers when trading for guys like Garza and Lohse then I would strongly advise Mark to trade these guys before they head to Coors Field in 3 weeks. Hell, I'd shuffle my rotation so that those two trade chips missed Coors and got to face the punchless Phillies right after it instead.

But if you honestly think Luc can get all 3 of those guys (an ace/ a #3 starter/ and a very good corner OF bat) by himself and all of those guys have 6 years of control...the sure, take out the salary dump. I'd still take on a salary burden from somebody to fill my minors system even more (within reason - like Garza for McCann which is the difference of 1 year and 20-25 million (not paying Luc makes it nearly a wash $-wise) but I'm going super cheap and planning on selling off McCann in 2 years for pennies on the dollar).

It's possible McCann has that value, but even if he doesn't, it's kinda a crap for slightly less crap swap in value. Trade is basically 2.5 years of cheap LuCroy for Severinas - Ace potential - 6 years of control Judge - Potential great hitter - 6 years of control Oh, by the way, since you now really don't need McCann and need pitching, we'll swap Garza (3/$40) for McCann (either 3/51 or 4/68). As a cost of doing that, give us another young pitcher to add to our stable. Maybe the Yanks throw in $10 million. Even if McCabb ends up being completely dead money, I'm OK with taking on salary and filling my strategy is to be OK with taking on money (within reason) to nab players to fill my farm system. If I'm doing a full rebuild, the only signings I'm making are a 1 year, $3 million flyer on Matt Joyce to see if I can flip him next deadline for a Knebel-type player. I'm OK absorbing a few contracts to get value given that I'm adding no new money, shedding my current big deals, and all of my players will be pre-arbitration guys.

Why? The Brewers give up $13/year through 2018 in Garza's contract (plus Luc's $) in that trade and get one of the top pitching prospects in baseball as well as 2 good prospects. Brewers can try to work with McCann as a platoon 1B and try to flip him again later (in 2017 deal him and pay for 2018 for a prospect).