bill hAll Star

With McCann struggling as he ages and the Yankees needing some pitching depth near-term, how about this one? Yankees get: Jonathan Lucroy Matt Garza Brewers get: Brian McCann Luis Severino Aaron Judge Jacob Lindgren *Note* I may be asking for too much on the prospect side from the Yankees - I'm not extremely familiar with their system and could be talked down (or you guys could convince me we aren't getting enough) Why for the Yankees: -They clearly signed McCann thinking they were getting a catcher that was going to thrive hitting bombs over that short porch in RF. He seems to be not aging well. His money is dumped on the Brewers and can be offloaded into maybe extending Lucroy down the road. -They need some pitching depth short-term. They can have Lohse instead if they want to, but some of this motivation is that Garza can be the 4/5 this year as well as be the bottom of the rotation guy going forward. Why for the Brewers: -I don't care about McCann as a catcher going forward and am fully aware he's paid big until 2018. He catches as a stopgap for now in a platoon situation. As soon as Lind is dealt, McCann gets a 1B glove and rarely goes back behind the plate. He could be flipped again if the Brewers can freshen his legs at 1B and have him become a good platoon hitter there. If not, taking on his contract is the cost for getting stud prospects. -The package I have created has a potential ace (I'm not sure the Yankees are willing to part with him), a slugging OF, and a starting rotation prospect. I think this is somewhat fair for the Yankees getting an AS catcher in his prime. The Brewers eat what looks like to be a bad contract (he rots or is attempted to be groomed into a trade piece as they rebuild) and the Yankees eat a slightly better contract but get a functional pitcher in return. ETA: Looking at McCann's contract, the 2019 part does scare me but I'd still do it (assuming Mark is less likely to). It is a deal that may likely vest and also might need to be reworded if the Brewers move his position. Plus, he has a full no-trade clause, so this thing becomes tougher to see happening.

Lucroy was the second-best offensive catcher in the majors in 2014, and would have been the second best in 2012 had he qualified. He was 4th best in 2013. I wouldn't let him walk after 2017 - I'd try to get an extension and keep that sort of asset on the Brewers. And it'd take a huge offer to pry him away from the Brewers if I were GM. I would advise most GMs against signing 32-year-old catchers to 5+ year, 100+ million dollar contracts. I can't imagine that those guys age well into their late 30s. I can almost guarantee that thing is going to be a massive burden about 2 years into the deal. Molina and Mauer (not catching anymore) have much more wear and tear in the majors, but those guys are beginning to majorly decline at 32. Russel Martin is still going strong at 32 but this is just the beginning of his mega-deal. Jason Kendall was really good and fell off around age 30. McCann has gone to a much better hitting park and he's declining at 30. Pudge fell off the cliff at 34-35. Piazza and Posada were good until their late 30s, but (especially in Piazza's case)...there's the whole steroids era thing. I'd rather save that money into extending the 2-3 stud prospects that we receive for him on his current excellent contract. I've been living with the "win now" mantra of Mark even though I prefer more of a youth movement the past few years. I've liked the value on a ton of the moves they've made at the MLB level lately. I would be livid if they gave Lucroy a big contract after this one unless they are somehow in a competitive window and they can keep the thing under 4 or 5 years. That contract seems like it would be horrendous for them.

Plus, 2017 will likely be Lucroy's last season as a Brewer (also Gomez being gone as you've noted). I think they could open up the pocketbook and keep Lucroy, but I would advise the Brewers against it.

I mostly agree with you, though I'm not sure anyone was calling Davis and Gennett studs. I also don't think they are "desperately" trying to get rid of Garza. If you're rebuilding, a "league average" veteran pitcher with slightly below market value contract is someone that you're going to try to deal away, though. If the Brewers were theoretically forced to try to "win now" again next year, I'd like to keep Garza. There is probably a special set of teams that is willing to trade for Garza. If the Brewers are rebuilding, 3 years/$40 million remaining is probably a complete waste. For a competing team, 3/$40 is below what it costs to get somebody like Garza. However, they'd have to throw in some prospects. If the Brewers were theoretically giving him away to save money, I'll bet there would be a line of teams willing just to pay his contract. His splits are .968 vs RHP and .584 against LHP. Are you sure about that?

Isn't Spieth one of the better golfers in the world? Sardinas has a lot of work to do to be a good hitter. I'm assuming the scouts imagine that he has some of that ability, but as of right now, he's a defense-only guy. Outside of his games in Colorado Springs, Sardinas has looked horrendous as a hitter thus far in his career.

The thing is - I think with a shrewd management team, they could still be "2015 Braves-esque" competitive next year if they want to finally unload some of the big-name players. Try to buy low on some guys like Chris Young (OF), Stephen Drew, Joyce, De Aza, David Murphy, etc. and see if you can't make some nice platoons out of it. If so, you can deal them at the deadline to a contender. Given that probably both (I wish one or zero) of Braun/Lucroy will still be around and in a Gomez (and Braun or Lucroy) deal you may get a pitcher that's close to the majors among other things, you could be semi-competitive and have trade pieces at the deadline.

Probably...unless we plan to flip those guys later and think we can do better (we likely wouldn't). Just take the flawed prospects because those guys will be relatively meaningless by the next time we are competing.

Both are 28 and Guerrero and has a good window to produce, so I wouldn't mind him, but in general, no thanks to Van Slyke and Guerrero. Both bat right-handed (get some lefties in the system), both are 28 (and we're rebuilding). Guerrero only has "control" for 2 more years, while Van Slyke has 4 (but I don't care that much about his).

Simply put: No. To the initial idea: I'm thinking that the Dodgers could have a platoon system of Puig alone in RF when he's healthy, Ethier/Guerrero in LF, and Pederson/Van Slyke in CF. The only thing they're lacking is the elite defense that Gomez brings, but I'm not sure they're willing to give up Seager to acquire that.

You've just listed one (and there are rumors of Suppan actually) of the most likely PED users ever, actually. How do you think Hammonds got the contract? Some think that Suppan was the way he was throwing at the end with the Cards as well. Also, Coors Field helped Hammonds.

Fair enough - I was looking at the baseball-reference data and it only lists him at 33 in his last MVP year.

Can go all sorts of directions with hitters. Poo Holes (making a strong assumption he was on the juice) fell off the face of the earth from 1.100 OPS guy to .750ish over the past 3 years. Cruz has kept it going. Melky's power has been hit or miss. It's going to be a shame that Poo Holes will forever be considered a guy that did it the "right way" like the rest of his franchise (and to his credit, maybe he did) and Braun will forever be tainted. I dunno, call me crazy, but a guy that drops from 1.100 in his 20s, has a year or 2 at .850 at 30/31, and then basically becomes a $25 million/year .700-.750 OPS guy is insane.

Are you saying he isn't "Yount/Molitor" because of the off-the-field stuff? If one assumes that he is at least somewhat back to his old self, Yount and Molitor both put up about 65 Fangraphs WAR over their career. Braun has 33 and he's just turned 31. Seems reasonable that he could be ticketed for about 60-65 wins over his career. If Braun averages 4 WAR/year the rest of his career (let's say he has 2 more years with 6-7 WAR and is otherwise a 3 WAR guy through his 30s) then he's going to almost hit 70 if he plays until he's 40. I am referring to marketability, face of the franchise stuff. That is over for Braun. I would never disagree that the Braun pre 2013 was fantastic and absolutely the best player in Franchise history. Those days are over. You can't project those stats going forward because he isn't that guy anymore. Can he be a good hitter and passable RF? Possibly. Will he be the guy that you can build a team and fanbase around? No. "Face of the franchise stuff" - Like a cocaine user (Molitor)? "Those days are over" - Like when Yount fell off a cliff at age 33 - sometimes that is a risk of taking on a franchise player contract. We're at the crossroads for 2015 with Braun. Either he's healthy on his way to being a .900 guy for a few more years, he's a .780 "overpaid former star," or he's a .700 washed-up roid user. Time will tell, but I'll live with the middle option and hope for the return of the .900 guy (the .990 guy will never be back).

I would absolutely take the Shelby Miller side in that Heyward deal, especially given what Heyward may command in a contract soon and the Miller control-ability. That said, everything smells rosy right now with Miller...but I wonder if playing the Phillies, Marlins, and Reds all 2x has something to do with this honeymoon. He has a 3.30 FIP still and is only allowing 4.8 hits/9 as compared to 8 hits/9 with the Cards. Also only .5 HR/9. Either he's gotten the ball on the ground more and turned a career corner, or the numbers are going to jolt up soon.

Are you saying he isn't "Yount/Molitor" because of the off-the-field stuff? If one assumes that he is at least somewhat back to his old self, Yount and Molitor both put up about 65 Fangraphs WAR over their career. Braun has 33 and he's just turned 31. Seems reasonable that he could be ticketed for about 60-65 wins over his career. If Braun averages 4 WAR/year the rest of his career (let's say he has 2 more years with 6-7 WAR and is otherwise a 3 WAR guy through his 30s) then he's going to almost hit 70 if he plays until he's 40.

Yelich has been dealing with back issues this year (only 80 plate appearances) and is a guy that put up an .860 minors OPS (not in the inflated PCL) at age 21. He's another guy that may never hit lefties that well, but he'll be a plus hitter against righties. I think his issue is more of dealing with a back injury and just getting more time to straighten out his sample. I think Scooter probably does deserve to straighten out the sample, but he was a low .700s guy in his mid-20s. I know you aren't comparing the two players and realize that Yelich > Scooter on the whole, but I think Yelich just needs a few healthy weeks to straighten the numbers out. Scooter may be a flawed player that if he can't get over his weakness, may not ever be functional. I don't think it's a "pressure" thing. How the heck do you know if Scooter or Yelich are pressing? Seems to be an excuse that is used for a sample against a bunch of tough pitchers or if the ball is just not finding green grass.

He absolutely is a 1-2 WAR player right now. That is what he has been since 2013 and two micro streaks hardly change that. Assuming he wasn't suspended/hurt in 2013, he was about a 4-5 WAR guy if he plays the whole season. He produced a 1.6 WAR in 62 games. 2014 is the contention point. Was he hurt? That's what we hope. With all of that he was a 1-2 WAR guy last year, no doubt. However, from the beginning of his career until the point he was suspended in 2013 he was a 5+ WAR guy. In 2014 he claims he was hurt for a great deal of it and trailed off. I wouldn't be surprised if he went back to matching what he was for the first 6ish years of his career with a little bit of a downward adjustment for being off the juice and just being a little bit older.

Ryan Braun without a doubt. Prince can't play defense for them because he's horrible at it and he's going to keep facing injuries due to the fact that he's pretty large (so is Braun, I guess). Also, while Braun gets to play in an all-around hitter-friendly park, Prince gets arguably the best hitter for lefties in the majors right now. Take that away and he isn't mashing this year. He's got a .750 road OPS. If I'm Texas and have the DH and that short porch, I take Prince. If I'm almost anybody else, I take Braun. If Braun were to theoretically be a free agent this offseason...many teams would probably take a 5/$100 risk on him (which is what he effectively has left). Maybe 20 was a stretch, but there are plenty of teams that probably would just take on the money itself. The rest of this season will be the telling factor. The deferred money thing is a bit annoying. I'm sure Braun wouldn't mind if a team was willing to bundle the deferred money back to "up front" which a franchise with a bit more $ laying around could do if they didn't want the annoying $2 million/year or whatever it is sitting on the books for 11 years.

I can guarantee you probably 20 teams would take him today if the Brewers were just looking to "shed" his contract that isn't even that bad.

I'd hesitate to call him a 1-2 WAR guy right now. He was hitting pretty well in a shortened 2013 season, last year he was hurt all year...if you buy that he isn't hurt now, he could still be a 5-6 WAR guy. He hasn't gotten a rash of lefties (he may not given the division this year) to beef up his numbers. He's only a little low on RHP OPS compared to career this year...he's only had 26 AB vs. LHP. He may destroy some upcoming lefties and get those numbers further up.

I am OK with maybe one of Segura/Sardinas/Gomez (throw in Scooter) sticking in the future and I'd lean towards Sardinas if he is really the versatile defensive wizard that he is. Unless Segura really turns it around, you're talking about a bunch of guys that can't hit in your infield. Scooter can maybe be a flawed/decent hitter that is pretty good against RHP, but he doesn't have the positional flexibility or defensive prowess of the rest. Otherwise, while those guys can keep the seats warm and maybe bring back value in trades, I am not going to be watching them on the edge of my seat to see if they are the 3B, 2B, or SS of the future, because I know that none of them will be able to hit (again, unless Segura does a 180) ever. Gomez or Sardinas could be a decent super-utility player or maybe fill one slot.

I'd say Betancourt had a 1.000 OPS over 17 games at some point. It is way too small a sample to say anything. It is very nice to see regardless. That's a pretty extreme example to use for the "small sample" argument. I kinda agree with the rest on here. Maybe he's just back to being the high .800s guy of his "down" years, but you still can't throw a streak away like one did for Yuni. Braun's past success was propped up with many streaks like this. Betancourt probably had 1, maybe 2 streaks like this in his career.

A 36-year-old Michael Cuddyer playing in Coors Field no-less. Obviously, they may have seen the Coors inflation and maybe tried to take it for what it is, but you can subtract about 10 HR going from Coors to Citi field and also an underrated factor is subtracting probably at least 30-60 batting average points not playing in Coors. For anyone that cares/follows the "batting title chase" anymore (not for me), you'll love anyone hitting at Coors. So much room in that outfield, most .275 career guys can put up a nice .315 there.

Not really. He isn't hitting anything right now. It could be he just isn't good enough or it could be he needs to go down and regroup. If he does regroup it will still be up for debate if he can learn to hit lefties. Well, I dunno. I know that he's not hitting anything but I would trust him to maybe find his way back to above-average at hitting RHP. Seems like a chasm to leap over for him to be able to also improve the LHP splits.

I think we have our answer to the "I think he can learn to hit left-handed pitching" debate.