topper09er

Gameday still doesn't have the replay of Braun getting thrown out yet. Who is in charge of the video clips over there? Get rid of em

go push your shopping cart back to the dugout Blackmon

If they made a movie and had the star player go on the run Yelich has been on people would think the movie was stupid and totally unrealistic

Is this for real?

Nice to see Anderson congratulate him

Woody faced the minimum. Great start to his postseason career

well just got home and sounds like Braun made a horrible decision to go. Uek seemed to think it was "close"

100% true, no one can. The best analytics and math can never ensure an outcome. But I can tell you as certain fact, the math says - if you can't have your best pitcher pitch in 162 games, you'll get the most value using him in the ones you have a lead and keeping him out of the ones you're losing. The best any pitcher can do is hold the other team at zero additional runs. No pitcher has the ability to take runs already scored off the board. If you have to pick and choose when to use your best bullets, use them in situations where no matter what your offense does the rest of the way, you can still win. Using Hader in games the Brewers trail, where the odds still say they're more likely to lose, is not the best allotment of innings. You can't say this at all. You get the most value out him by maximizing the inning he pitches at a highly effective level. For example, if Hader was on the Orioles and only had 40 appearances this season it would not be the most valuable usage of him.

No, its just being done in an intelligent way. Trying to judge a manager by looking at every single decision individually would never work. Of course it isn't perfect but it doesn't need to be. The question of whether a great manager is worth 5 wins or 10 wins or 30 wins doesn't require perfection. The ballpark answer is most likely 5 wins while I'm sure there are those who believe in the 30. Most likely based on what? A model that already goes into it with the assumption that individual decisions do not matter. Macro level. Context ignored, which I think makes it fundamentally useless in this exercise. I get how it works, you just look at the whole season, and conclude using a different reliever here or there may save a few runs but a win is worth 9.5 runs etc. The model that treats decision in a 1-1 game the same as decisions in a 12-2 game. A model that assumes if the game is 1-1 in the 9th then the whole team needs to share the blame for failing so score those other 3.5 runs they score on average so if the manager can generate 1 more run in that game its nothing special. It is not an intelligent way, its just the best way we can realistically do now. Exactly like player projections, useful on the whole, useless at the individual level.

Um you do not know that. Maybe that is a great hypothesis, but you cannot be sure You're right, there's no way to prove how things would've worked out differently had CC used his best guys more in games the Brewers trailed. Sometimes the only means to quantify different scenarios is with common sense. The Brewers wound up winning their last 8 games and finished with the most NL wins by a razor thin margin. Those final 8 games included 5 that were decided by 2 runs or less. The bullpen has been outstanding in September and a big reason they won those 8 straight. If the Brewers bullpen had been used differently and not been somewhat managed/limited throughout the season, do you think they win all 8 games? Because they needed every one of them. We've seen previous managers use the best arms throughout the season in games the Brewers trailed but were close. Those teams had a recurring theme of having the bullpen fade towards the end of the season. It's up to each individual to decide if there's a correlation. To some it's obvious. To others its not. I am not saying you are wrong, just that you cannot present this as some known fact. If Christian Yelich didn't hit a HR every other AB in September the bullpen usage doesn't matter. Despite saving Hader so often all season long he gave up back to back HRs on last Monday, so I don't see how CC should credit for his bullpen usage winning that game. Pretty broad generalization here, what is your evidence? 2008 - offensive collapse 2011 - starting pitching collapse 2014 - offensive collapse Let see John Axford 2012, 75 appearances, only 12 where the Brewers were trailing. In 2011 when he was lights out he made 74 appearances with 6 where the Brewers were trailing. I guess those extra 6 innings over 6 months is the obvious correlation I am missing.

You do it at a macro level not a micro level. The truth is fans think the manager makes or breaks a team but it is hard to find any evidence that they have even as much impact as a single good player. OK, so its not being done at all then. Its like projections, they are only useful on the average, but for an given individual player they are worthless. Even at a macro level, I don't see how you can compare what actually vs what might have happened in some alternate universe in order to conclude that in both universe you get the same outcomes anyways so it doesn't matter.

True, but during the course of a season, CC does make some head scratching decisions, that can not be argued. He is not untouchable, and questioning certain moves is ok to do as a fan. Arizona had a season recently where their record was something like 20 games better than their Pythagorean. It was because they refused to use their best relievers in games they were trailing. Drove fans nuts, but it worked. Much the same happened here. That's 100% the manager's call. Other managers would have done things differently. It likely would've led a burnt out bullpen. Um you do not know that. Maybe that is a great hypothesis, but you cannot be sure

Well Braun has played back into the 3 spot just in time for the playoffs, let's see some of that swagger today. 1.060 OPS in 64 postseason PA

How could you study this? What is the control? There is no way to compare the outcomes of what the manager did vs what he did not do. Its like analyzing the 3rd base coach. Maybe we know the times he gave the wrong send and the runner was out, but there is no way to know if he gave the correct hold call. Great example this year on April 10. Bottom 10, 2 outs Brewers up 1 lefty at bat with Jennings and Hader in the bullpen. CC leaves in Hoover who gives up the tying run, how can you analyze whether that was the right move or not?

They should bring in Cecil Cooper and Plush to do a combo first pitch - the only 2 guys responsible for playoff series winning hits in franchise history.

ouch, that is like hating Willie Mays Hayes. Picked up of the scrap heap, .357 OBP batting ahead of Braun and Fielder, 3.0 WAR as our primary CF, playoff series walk-off hit.

Let's hope not

I agree unless it is for the ultimate championship. If my house is on fire I am saving my non hooded grey Superbowl 31 sweatshirt before my cat.

hahahahahhahah. the bros thought easy world series like 4 days ago and now its over. YYYYYYEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSS

The only thing that was egregious was that Arenado hugged back. Fighting for your season and you dont try to force your way out of that hug?

Thats at least roughing the passer, 15 yards penalty, next pitcher can throw from 15 ft 6 inches

TAG MASTER, offense or defense

TAG MASTER, offense or defense

Oh no