marty22

X, do you really think they'll non-tender Bush?

X, do you really think they'll non-tender Bush?

Seems like Kawakami's name pops up as a candidate to be moved among braves fans when they discuss their "surplus" of starting pitching. He's at a 3.98 ERA on the year, 4.22 FIP, and his ERA has improved to 3.43 in the 2nd half (9 starts, 13 total appearances). His contract is also not prohibitive: 6.67 MM each of the next 2 years. Essentially he's Looper's contract with better numbers, and in my opinion perhaps a little bit of upside; although he's 34, it's his first year in MLB and he's shown imrpovement in the 2nd half after a shaky start. Here are his ERA's by month: April: 7.06 May: 3.03 June: 3.33 July: 4.87 August: 2.87 September: 3.00 When Braves people talk about him, they sound like the cost wouldn't be very high, as they feel they just can't afford to pay a 6th starter, and basically just want to get rid of him. I have a hard time coming up with a match for the braves...maybe Hart for Kawakami and Jeff Locke or Jordan Schafer, although this leaves us without a RF...like I said I'm having a hard time with finding a match. Thoughts?

Blackburn is no "top of the rotation starter". i like slowey, and wanted to trade for him last year. But no way do we give up casey and JJ for blackburn

and why not Liriano? JJ for Liriano? or am i dreaming?

Colby, I was thinking they should try Farris at SS, too, as he obviously gains a ton of value if he's a capable SS. After being named best defensive 2B in the FSL (i think-correct me if i'm wrong), you'd think it would be worth a try. You're probably right about Arnett not skipping Wisconsin; like I said I'm not very familiar with promotions and placement as I've only followed the minors for 2 or 3 years. However, I would be surprised if Schafer skips AA altogether (apart from his 2 weeks there this year), just because I've always heard the A+ to AA jump is the toughest apart from AAA to MLB.

Bored in class today, I tried to figure out what next year's minor league rosters will look like. There are a few interesting logjams and position choices, and I thought it would be a good way to distract us from the big league crew. I'm sure I'm way off on some of this, but I figured I'd give it a shot and let you guys fill in the blanks; there will be a lot of blanks, as I'm not very familiar with the non-prospect filler in the system. Nashville C-Lucroy/Salome (I think they'll put both at AAA and try and keep them both in the lineup as much as possible thru DH and 1B) 1B-Koshansky 2B-Justis 3B-Gamel (if not MLB) SS- LF-Drew Anderson CF- RF-Katin SP1-Mike Jones SP2-Butler SP3-Dillard SP4-Burns SP5-Cody RP-Smith RP-Axford RP-Houston RP-Braddock (I wish they'd let him start in AA, but maybe they know something we don't) HUNTSVILLE C-Corporan 1B-Wilson 2B-**LAWRIE or FARRIS?** - I was really unsure what they'll do here. Doubt they send Lawrie back down, but they have to move Farris up, right? I'm not aware of Farris being able to play any other position. 3B-Green SS-Wheeler or Brewer? LF-Gindl CF-Schafer RF-Cain -- Really interesting here...3 guys who can play any OF position, Cain and Schafer natural CF's and Gindl has more value as CF. SP1-Rogers SP2-Rivas SP3-Anundsen SP4-Kintzler SP5-Bowman Swingmen-Holliman/Hand RP-Ritchie RP-Aguilar I thought about Scarpetta here, but figured they'd start him and Peralta at A+ with an eye towards a quick move up if warranted. BREVARD COUNTY-I'm really not sure here, no one from WI really warranted a jump C-Kemp 1B-Kjeldgaard (sp?) 2B- 3B- SS- LF- CF- RF-Komatsu SP1-Scarpetta SP2-Peralta SP3-Watten SP4-Arnett WISCONSIN C-Garfield/Roberts 1B-Halton 2B-Dykstra 3B- SS-Prince LF- CF-Kentrail Davis RF-Dennis SP1-Odorizzi SP2-Del Howell SP3-Heckathorn SP4-Bucci SP5-Lasker The interesting ones to watch, for me, are the Farris/Lawrie placement, the FO's treatment of Brent Brewer, and Arnett's placement. I sure hope they let Howell start at A-Wisconsin; I would think they would but I haven't followed the minors long enough to know how that works. Also, what do you guys think they'll do with D'Vontrey Richardson, Brooks Hall and Scooter Gennett? Instrux league and then Helena?

Count me in X. A 3.86 FIP MLE this year in about 100 MiLB innings? He's still only 26. Obviously everyone wants the next Jackson, its just so hard to find. I think Liz is a good candidate for the reasons you stated. A whole thread about the next Jackson could be fun... EDIT: His walk rate was down under 3 this year, too. It's gone down consistently over the last 3-4 years

definitely agree. I just thought it was nice to see gindl up there. But like rambling al said, he definitely has moved up this year; the biggest thing for me is cutting down the k's. Sure it's still about 25%, but he went from 144 (i think) to 86 and retained his power in a power-sapping park

Did anyone else see that project prospect had Gindl as the 25th best prospect in the game? It's not BP, but I like what I've read of their stuff. Here's the link: http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2009/09/01/top-25-position-prospects EDIT: Activated link...

Where did you see that Homer?

Gennett sounds a heck of a lot like a lefty Dustin Pedroia...? Pedroia was originally a SS, too.

at what point can we get a little excited about Jhonatan Javier. I know he's 21 playing in the DSL, and we know nothing about him, but he is raking...

Some good ideas, but i think you're way off on some other ones. First of all, I looked at the salaries the other day and came up with about 66 million committed when you account for arbitration raises (I used the 40/60/80% of Market Value used by Fangraphs). Paying Felipe Lopez 5-6 Million to be a backup for Escobar/McGehee/Weeks wouldn't make sense financially for the brew crew, and i also think it would be hard to get lopez to agree to this anyways. Next, I don't think that package is near enough to get King Felix; go look at the package supposedly proposed to the Mariners by the Red Sox and you'll realize it would take more than we could offer, unless you're willing to put gamel, escobar, AND lawrie in the deal. On the other hand, I really like your trade idea of Hardy to the Red Sox. I'd rather do Hardy for Tazawa/Bowden + Delcarmen and hang on to Rogers and Anundsen. I think the Sox would part with Delcarmen before Bard. I would propose signing Kelvim Escobar or Tim Hudson (if his option is declined) along with the aforementioned Hardy trade. Signing both of these players would be fabulous in my opinion, provided they'll sign cheaply enough for us to afford both. Escobar could slot nicely into the bullpen and be ready upon injury to a starting pitcher. This would give us a rotation of Yo, Hudson, Bush, Parra, Suppan/Bowden with Escobar in the pen to start the year. Whether or not escobar would agree to sign as a reliever is another story. As for salary, we'd save about 6 Million by trading hardy, which would be spent on Hudson (should be plenty with him coming off of injury). 10 million to Cameron, and 1.5 with incentives to Escobar takes us to 77.5 Million, with some room to sign Hoffman if Hudson takes less money. I'd also try to get kendall for about 2 million, taking us to about 80. Signing Counsell is key, but it would mean leaving out Hoff, most likely Lineup: Weeks, Gamel, Braun, Fielder, Cameron, Hart, Escobar, Kendall/Salome Rotation: Yo, Hudson, Bush, Parra, Bowden/Suppan Bullpen: Hoffman (if affordable), Delcarmen (closer if can't sign Hoff), Stetter, Escobar, Villanueva, Difelice, Coffey, Suppan/Bowden Bench: Counsell, Hall, McGehee, Catalanotto, Gerut

I'd go after Bedard, Hudson, and Escobar. I think we'll get outbid on Bedard, but its worth a try on a one-year $10ish MM deal. I'd really like to sign Hudson and Escobar to incentive-laden deals (i think someone already mentioned this). The nice thing is you can put Escobar in the pen if he doesn't win a spot out of ST (although we'd probably have to sign him as a starter) and stretch him out to start when someone gets hurt. As for Hardy, i still think boston makes a lot of sense, with them using lowrie as a utility player. I think a package of Tazawa/Bowden + Manny Delcarmen would work, more likely with Bowden as the pitching prospect. A rotation like this could be very competitive Yo Hudson Bush Parra Suppan/Bowden (loser of Rotation spot to 'pen) Delcarmen could close for us and save money on Hoffman, too.

Following THaudricourt's article in Sunday's paper, I was trying to come up with come possible trade targets for a bad-contract swap as proposed by TH. We'd obviously be looking for someone whose contract expires after next year, as Hall's does, otherwise the trade wouldn't match up financially. A few of my ideas: Eric Byrnes - owed 11MM next year, FA in 2011 Kenji Johjima - owed 8MM next year, FA in 2011 Jose Guillen - owed 12MM next year, FA in 2011 Jeremy Bonderman - owed 12.5MM next year, FA in 2011 Nate Robertson - owed 10MM next year, FA in 2011 Kei Igawa - owed 4MM in 2010 and 2011, FA in 2012

Nice outing for Lasker again tonight....he's gotten off to a good start

6 groundouts, 4 strikeouts, 2 flyouts for Rogers. That's dominant

no walks for any hitters in Nashville, except Katin who had 3...i thought that was quite comical

scarpetta....yikes

as Nate82 pointed out, people fail to realize that any trade bringing back halladay (or cliff lee) would have to include Manny Parra. So, we'd be going from Parra to Halladay, while still having Burns out there every fifth day. Think about this: lets say halladay is a 2.8 ERA pitcher for the brewers, and Parra is a 4.5 from here on out (obviously this is very rough, but it's the principle i'm trying to illustrate thats important). Now lets say burns is a 5.5 ERA pitcher from here on out. If we go get someone like Carl Pavano, who projects at about a 3.8-4.0 ERA for the rest of the year (not to mention that's in the AL - 3.8 FIP), it WOULDNT cost manny parra, so we'd be replacing burns with Pavano. So, we'd replace the 5.5 ERA Burns with the 4.0 ERA Pavano for a much cheaper price than replacing the 4.5 ERA Parra with the 2.8 ERA Halladay. I know this ignores the fact that Halladay works very deep into games, but Pavano would obviously work deeper than burns as well. This is a very rough illustration with off-the-cuff numbers, but its a very important thing to think about.

Battlekow, I know you've noted escobar's extreme platoon splits, and I found an interesting wrinkle in those numbers today. Looking at his MLSplits page, I saw the OPS advantage against lefties has been consistent over the last 3 years as you pointed out. BUT, did you also notice that his BABIP against lefties has been over .400 each of the last three years? When you neutralize for luck, the numbers are much closer, but is it really lucky if it's been consistent for 3 years? I know the BABIP tends to depend on LD/GB/FB percentages, but this seems to be a very interesting case, and I was wondering if anyone had an explanation.

wasn't davis a sandwich pick? IIRC, if we fail to sign those picks, we don't get them back next year

Although the Sawx could probably resign him if they wanted to, you have to consider the fact that hardy will likely be a Type A FA after next year, and therefore must consider the value of the two picks in the trade.

The terry steinbach one has been thrown out by the 'Stache himself. Also i really like the Jeff Kent comp for Lawrie, i couldnt peg one for him.