HiAndTight

People have been tinkering with an expected BABIP based on batted ball profiles for several years now...No reasonable SABR guy would ever tell you Yuni B should expect the same BABIP as Miguel Cabrera. I suspect Segura's .266 is a bit lower than it will be going forward, but his batted ball profile seems pretty poor, so despite his speed I'm not too optimistic about balls finding open space. http://www.hardballtimes.com/simple-xbabip-calculator/ http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/xbabip-spreadsheet/ Based on what? What makes you say that? His BABIP is down about 60 points despite hitting almost the exact same LD pct, more GB's, fewer pop up's. What about his profile do you mean? And those are interesting ideas that they're experimenting with, but it's really just an idea he's trying to develop right now.

Well....I didn't say they were old, I just said they were older than Turner, but actually I think that is starting to get old for a major league pitcher. Starting to. Pitchers see pretty substantial drops in their velocity around 31. At best it's an age where pitchers tend to really start to break down, or struggle as they have to change how they pitch. Marco Estrada can't rear back and fire a 93 MPH fastball anymore. He could at times when he first game here. Now he's 88 MPH and maybe hits 90.

This isn't 1998 anymore. First of all, OPS isn't as important for certain players. But beyond that, a .644 OPS from a very good defensive SS is really not that bad. But for your 9th hitter, if you're getting a great glove at SS and a decent batting average(.293 BA two years ago, .278 this year to go along with 80 SB's in 88 attempts the last 3 years) I don't see you giving up on that player. Same goes for Brantley who by the way has played more CF than LF. One, just about every team has to "wait through," players not putting up huge numbers at the age of 22, 23. Brantley was at 22 years old came up as a Sept callup and put up a .707 OPS in 28 games. He hit .313/.356 that year. Struggled at 23 years of age and was up and down. At 24, it was his first full year starting. At 25 he had a .750 OPS with a .288 BA and .348 OBP. At what point exactly do you believe the Brewers would have given up on him? And saying they waited 4 years of low .700 OPS before he exploded this year is disingenuous. He was a Sept callup in the first "year," you're talking about, then had two average years at 23 and 24 playing CENTER and LF. In other words, he was a 2 WAR player in his 2nd season, a 3.2 WAR player in his 3rd year and is now on pace to be about a 6 WAR player. Unless you believe the Brewers are going to find a new SS and LF'er, then I find it highly unlikely that they wouldn't have waited for him to develop, which didn't take nearly as long as you suggested to become a good player.

That's a big assumption, isn't it? Odorizzi is striking out on average 10 per 9 innings and has an FIP of about .7 runs a game lower than Peralta. But I don't know why only one could be in the rotation. If you want to play that type of hypothetical, MAYBE we offer Abreu even more money and don't sign Garza. I also see no reason they would have given up on Gomez in favor of Brantley AND Cain. Cain is a very good player, solid player. But Gomez emerged before Cain played a full season. And Brantley and Gomez really started to ascend at the same time. I think the Brewers would have gladly made room on the roster for him. I think it's 50/50 that Ramirez is signed. Lawrie was 21 years old when we signed Aram. But.....lets say we had to go with Lawrie this year. He has been in and out of the line up, but he's also played just 20 fewer games than Aram and has a 1.5 WAR to ARam's 2.1. Just saying, that's a LOT of money we are saving. Lineup CF-Gomez 1B-Braun RF-Brantley 3B-Ramirez C-Lurcoy LF-Cain 2B-Gennett SS-Escobar I'm putting Braun at 1st base. I think the argument that he was a really bad 3rd basemen means he'd be a really bad 1st basemen is ridiculous. He struggled with his throws. Braun made some extraordinary plays with his range. Now instead of having to get to his feet and rush a throw all the way across the diamond, he has to flip it to the pitcher. He's more than capable of doing that adequately. We're better defensively in RF, LF, and SS(arguably). The lowest BA in that lineup would be Escobar's .278. I'd probably be more inclined to start Davis, but Cain would give us a great defensive OF. Rotation- Lohse Gallardo Peralta Garza Odorizzi Nelson Nelson would probably go to the BP this year...and we could certainly use him out there. Odorizzi might be a better fit in the pen with that splitter he throws and his ability to get the K. Bench- I know Maldy would be on the bench. We'd probably still have Weeks and Lawrie would give us nice depth, but we're still really RH'ed heavy. BP-Assuming we signed Garza, Odorrizi or Nelson would likely be in the pen giving it a nice boost, but relatively unchanged beyond that. Obviously how the team is built would have changed, BUT if you just take the players that we traded away, I think we'd have a better defense. One that would not only have the same power(perhaps a bit more) but also would be deeper. I think this team would be a much tougher team to beat in a playoff series.

That wasn't and isn't the question. It's a purely hypothetical question about how would this team look if they still had all the players they'd traded away. And you seem to be awfully dismissive of the players the Brewers traded away and I'm not sure why. None of them complained about the Brewers, none of them had a say, and they helped get the pitchers you so clearly are thrilled we got. Calling guys like Lorenzo Cain a nobody is just...ridiculous. Cain has a 3.1 WAR this year, is hitting over .300, 16 SB's, and a VERY good defender. That's a nobody? Alcides Escobar is a very good SS. He's an outstanding defender like Cain, and is hitting about .280/.315. Not Arod, but really-really valuable player. Odorizzi's "crime," here is that he hasn't yet put together a dominating season? HE'S 24 YEARS OLD!!! He was good as a 23 year old in the AL East and this year has a FIP of 3.46, has a K/9 of 10.06. What the heck do you want from him? Remember when you called Peralta an ace and said it was an "insult," to him to suggest that Jimmy Nelson is very similar to him? Well, sorry to break it to you, but last year when Peralta was 24(same age as Odorizzi) he wasn't nearly as good as Odorizzi. In fact THIS YEAR he's has a FIP of 4.20 to Odorizzi's 3.46, about 3.5 fewer K's per 9 IP. And then there's the one you did concede was alright, Brantley...who by the way has been more valuable than anyone on this Brewers team and is a borderline superstar. So...nobody said that we shouln't have made the trades, rather, how would this team look with the Players we traded away. But trying to diminish the value of every player we traded away....I don't get the point there. Does that make you feel better if the players we traded fail? Don't we still have a historic 2nd half from CC and a couple playoff runs? So no need to distort how good the players we traded actually are. I think this all goes back to your mantra about prospects are unproven(which is like saying water is wet to me, but I digress).

He has...in 13 innings. I'm not confident he's going to be able to keep that up as he's lost a couple MPH on his fastball from last year(on all his pitches). I wouldn't count on him doing that for the rest of the year. Meanwhile nearly every contender has been looking for left handed relievers. So while we have two of them, another team with an extra right handed reliever would be ideal. I remember when the "small sample police" used to be all over this site. Now I seem to see a lot of posters who feel that hot streaks will go on forever, making the player untouchable, while a cold streak means we should get rid of the bum while making a drastic move to replace him. Gorzelanny is a capable MLB reliever, and that has value. We're after the trade deadline, so it is unlikely a MLB-player-for-MLB-player deal is done, and since we're not trading him for prospects I'm fine with the likely scenario that he pitches for the Brewers for the rest of the season. However, seeing as how teams always seem to be looking for lefty relievers, if we could use him in a trade that would significantly upgrade somewhere else (RH reliever, 1B) then we should be willing to make the deal. I agree...there seems to be far less importance placed upon sample sizes lately. A MLB player for player trade is unlikely, and there certainly aren't many contenders with an extra right handed power arm that's passed through waivers, and even fewer who would be willing to give that player up. But with so many players being put on waivers....who knows? I'm not actively looking to get rid of him, but he is our 3rd best lefty in the BP so it'd certainly be worth it for a RH'ed reliever.

How is that what we need as opposed to a good right handed pitcher who can some in and provide some stability late in games? And the way you're talking about using him...what makes him a better option to be used in this way than Jeffress? Finally, it amazes you that the Brewers even keep Kintzler on their team.....but you're advocating for a player who has worse numbers in AAA than Kintzler and then saying, "last year he had an ERA under 3 as a reliever." Well...it still was worse than Kintzler. We've seen Figaro. He's not that good. We've seen Kintzler at least be good before. If I'm betting on one of the two guys who are roughly the same age, I'll bet on the guy who was very-very good for us last year as opposed to the guy who's never really been very good for anyone before(And are roughly the same age).

I don't see one guy on that AA list that is a young prospect that has been "blocked," by going with some veterans on the AAA roster. Every year, every team has a AAA team that is more experienced and if a player in AA is really good enough, he'll get a shot as there is so much turnover. Going with too many veterans in Nashville has hardly been the problem( especially when you use the example of Tim Dillard as one of those in AA worthy of a promotion....not like we haven't seen that show before). The fact of the matter with Kintzler is that we desperately need him actually keep some of this momentum going and keep throwing the ball well. He had been throwing the ball REALLY well in July, and then another poor outing. Just when it looks like he's starting to get that 94 MPH sinker that dives down and gets swings and misses or induces ground balls and he throws that slider well, he comes up with a ugly inning where he starts leaving the ball up and giving up base hits.

When Bonds played was there testing? Maybe at the end. MLB profited from the cheating for years. The only reason they went after these guys is to help the Yankees get out of Arods contract and suspend Braun because he got out of the felled test. You HONESTLY believe Bud Selig who pushed for testing long before the players union agreed to it ONLY started to go after these guys to "save," the New York Yankees from having to pay Arod's contract? Which by the way....he did not accomplish. There are conspiracies and then there are conspiracies. This is the first time I've heard this one.

"Perfectly safe" is a big stretch for just about any drug. The can of Pandora's boxes you want to open just isn't worth it. First how would you be able to tell a person using it under relatively safe protocols vs one who is pushing things to get any sort of edge possible? Second since they do provide an advantage, if you allow them you essentially make them mandatory. Banning them completely may not be the perfect solution, but it is the best and safest option there is right now. No, it's not really a stretch. You're putting words into my mouth. A-I didn't say I advocated it, I simply said that under doctor supervision they are perfectly save. B-How would you tell what a player is using them for? Because they'd be under doctors supervision. C-I never said I was in favor. So please don't say the "Pandora's box YOU want to open." D-Making them acceptable in certain situations, the way they grant some waivers for some drugs would not make them "Mandatory," It's a complex debate and I simply relayed what those smarter than myself had said.

He has...in 13 innings. I'm not confident he's going to be able to keep that up as he's lost a couple MPH on his fastball from last year(on all his pitches). I wouldn't count on him doing that for the rest of the year. Meanwhile nearly every contender has been looking for left handed relievers. So while we have two of them, another team with an extra right handed reliever would be ideal.

Vs expecting an older guy who's struggled mightily to come in and be that guy(Estrada) or another older guy(Fiers) who has struggled to be that guy? I also mentioned that was ONE of two potential routes. The other would be to use him out of the pen. Power arm and he's more of a two pitch pitcher. It's a moot point now however.

Nor would I. And the idea of playing Rollins everyday next year in his late 30's while platooning or having Segura play in AAA strikes me as a terrible idea. But it's easy to see why others may disagree given the fact that he has performed poorly up to this point(though again, had his BABIP not been around .200 for about half his PA's, his numbers would look a lot differently).

I don't think scouts views him as the idea 2B so much as they questioned his arm and his defensive ability at SS, a question that has been answered in no uncertain terms. Rollins and Segura have been pretty similar since the start of last year defensively. His option has already vested...and while Segura has looked bad, I think he's looking better at the plate, squaring up the ball more and he's not flying open as much. Of course that's just my opinion. Segura has also had a BABIP of .209 and .207. Otherwise his OPS was ~650 the first two months(and .850 so far this month...FWIW which is very little). I still like him, and if we're going to take back a bad contract, I'd rather we take a bad contract back for a right handed reliever.

I've heard the same as well. I wonder if the Brewers could coax him into it if he realizes that he's got a chance to potentially close some post-season games, and would easily be the closer moving forward. Remember though, we all feared the same things about K-rod, an equally accomplished closer when we traded for him. The first thing he said was that he expected to be the closer in '11. Now I saw that reported. I didn't see quotes that Papelbon said that. Papelbon DID however say to Milwaukee reporters that he was hoping to be traded to a contender and was surprised by Chase Utley wanting to stay in Philly wondering aloud; Why not just do the same thing we did with Axford and K-rod, tell them that they'll decide on a game by game basis who the closer will be? IIRC, K-rod got a few save chances early on before settling into the SU role. Perhaps a big difference being he was due to become a FA while Papelbon is not.

Yeah, and some guys pull their hamstrings and are out for a week. Others miss the season like Casey Heyward did last year. It goes without saying that muscle strains vary a GREAT DEAL from player to play. How long one person was out has almost no affect on how long another is out. Plus, a minor league player is going to be treated differently than a major league player. And yes, Segura and Gennett are needed in the lineup. I didn't take his post to suggest that Falu would be taking either players starting spot. Simply that given the injuries that have hampered the two, we might need some coverage there. Especially since Gennett has been multiple injuries and looks really hobbled out there right now.

The thing is, Papelbon has been so good for so long, that if we could just get Philly to pay 3-4 million over the life of the contract(2 million more if the option vests) I think he'd be worth it. We're so close to having a really dominant bullpen. Just one really good right handed reliever. Kintzler does look better to me, but I've said that before this year. Jeffress looks great, but not as a SU guy just yet, more as a 6th-7th inning guy. And if Henderson came back.... I think the losses that we've suffered late in games, especially given who some of them were to in other years would have already crushed this team. We're lucky to be where we are right now and still fighting, but losing leads late in games to the Cards or other teams with really good starting pitchers who we've managed to get a lead on, that does more damage than just a single loss. I would have claimed Papelbon. Worst case scenario you have an elite closer this off-season who is owed 13 million dollars with a vesting option that a team could work around. I think you would be able to trade that. Even if you had to then eat a little bit of the deal.

You realize of course that he had TJ and didn't have any consistent command before the procedure and most players struggle with their command coming out rehab? He may figure it out, but he's also out of options so it might not even be with the Brewers. Ariel Pena is in the same boat option wise, he may ultimately be a BP guy. Actually, one of the benefits many pitchers find from Tommy John is that during their rehab, such an emphasis is placed upon repeating your delivery and your mechanics, that having TJ for a young pitcher very often HELPS improve their control and command. Far from a guarantee, but I don't know why we'd be ruling Hellweg out of a future role in the BP....and late in the BP if in fact his command does indeed improve.

It's starting to look like this is going to be more and more of a platoon. Parra's OPS is about 30 points lower, but his BA was significantly higher. Still, vs a guy like Vogelsong, a fly ball pitcher at Miller Park, I think I might have gone with him tonight. Of course Parra made it tough for RR to give Davis the nod after last nights game. Edit-I didn't read through and see that Davis has a sore elbow. [sarcasm]Must be the strain from all those darts he's throwing from the OF to.....well...pretty close to the cutoff guy usually.[/sarcasm]

They actually have. I can't give you the exact stat, but I thought the Brewers were like 29-30 vs the current playoff teams so far this year? They have had some heartbreaking losses to some teams at a time when t hey could have really put their foot on the necks of some of these teams and haven't, but they don't struggle as much against the top teams as it feels like they do.

Ok, but is that convincing evidence he would be a good defensive CENTER fielder? Remember when he barely beat out Ryan Braun for the GG in 2011? And his playing time hasn't really been irregular this year. I would agree that his defensive numbers probably don't truly represent his actual value. But last years numbers are probably also outliers as well. In reality he's probably an above average defensive corner OF'er. I think it's a stretch to argue he's just a step below Carlos Gomez in terms of his defensive capability in CENTERFIELD.

A-I disagree, I thought you could see pretty clearly that his foot was off the bag when the ball goes in the glove; B-I would probably have a more blurry vision if I was a Giants fan and am SHOCKED they actually overturned that call.

I didn't know anything I said was ambiguous. He has won two gold gloves. In the past, neither were in CF and he's rated as a negative defender this year. If you need any further explanation as to "what I'm talking about," I'd be happy to clarify. But for the time being, I'm just happy they actually overturned that call.

ANY CHANCE they overturn this call here even though it's obvious it was an out. No way they end the game on a call this close between two division leaders.