HiAndTight

That's because he didn't say there HAS been a time. He said IF Nelson, Peralta, Burgos develop and combine with Gallardo, Lohse and Estrada THEN we wouldn't "need," and it would take pressure off guys like Jungman, Bradley and Thornburg in the near future.... I would say that statement is 100 pct true. It would give Bradley and Jungman in particular more time to develop and hopefully live up to their promise. So basically, if we have 6 pichers, 3 already solid proven pitchers and 3 young, very talented pitchers produce, we won't have a need for starting pitchers in the NEAR future.....

It's hesitance to believe that he's suddenly going to develop the command of a Halladay-in-his-prime, or whatever other bona fide MLB #1 you want to use as an example. The stuff is undeniably #1-caliber. But his command has been lacking at every level, so it's a bit much to say that he's realistically got a shot at turning into a MLB #1. If he winds up as a legit #2 type, I'll be over the moon. He doesn't seem to repeat his mechanics very consistently, and that leads to a lot of command issues. That directly contradicts the entire concept of what "ceiling," means. Roy Halladay if you'll recall had issues with his mechanics when he was the EXACT same age at Peralta and sporting a 10+ ERA. He was sent down to AAA to refine his delivery and...the rest is history. There's simply no question he has the upside to be a #1. The suggestion here is that command can't be improved. He's a 23 year old who's flashed signs of dominance this year. And further using Doc Hallday as an example, he had BB/9 rates of 4.8 and 5.6 in his 22 and 23 year old seasons. If a pitchers stuff has the ceiling of a #1, he has the ceiling of a #1. There are a lot of young guys who's pitches move SO much(as Peralta's fastball does, even at 96 it looks like it's a split finger fastball at times) that it takes them a while to harness it. I wouldn't expect it. But I don't see how it can be argue that's his ceiling. Same with Nelson...

That made me laugh. Carlos is playing really well. I'm sure there will be some ups and downs, but I've always loved watching him. It's like he drinks a case of red bull before every game. Just fired up to be out there. He approaches the game of baseball the same way my dog does when I got into the other room and get ready to fill her bowl of food and then put my shoes on to take her outside to run in the fields. Just hopping, jumping, non-stop energy. But while I understand the hesitation, he seems like it started last year and it's continued on this year, a fundamental change in the way he plays the game.

I can see that. But I actually think losing some of the "spaziness" is what has helped him. Don't get me wrong, he's still 100%, all effort, all energy. But I think the fact that he's been able to settle down and harness the energy at the plate a little bit more and not be so anxious has really been the key. It was never a question of his talent. You mean like being able to hit line drives to RF with 2 strikes instead of swining out of his shoes? He's become a smarter hitter. It SEEMS like he's gotten more 2base STRIKE hits this year than he had all of last year(I'm sure that's not true, just seems like it), especially to right field. And he really is swinging at his pitch more. I thought this deal had the chance to be a BIG time steal if he could get his OBP up to the .320 range and continue to hit for some power, steal bases and play defense. If he can manage to put up a .290/.335 line and hit 25 HR's/40 SB's, that's just a great deal for the team. Maybe he finally doesn't feel the pressure of having to worry about his job, his financial security, and he's just grown as a baseball player. People forget how much he was rushed to the big leagues. So after all the dust has settled, we've got a CF'er who will be around for 4 years and think is capable of putting up a 6 WAR season, Segura a 4-5 WAR season this year given their starts. So....Melvin who was much maligned might deserve some credit here for identifying Gomez' and his improvements and pulling the trigger for Segura when the scouting report said that he might not stick at SS(which just sounds foolish after watching him). Certainly better than what Gomez appeared to be after the trade and what Yuni B was when he got here. By the way, anyone else think he can carve out a little niche as a Juan Uribe TYPE player for another few years in this league? He's got some power, he's a guy you like to see up there with a man on 3rd and less than 2 down, and he can play all 4 IF spots....

Lets *edit you're objection to that low risk/high reward signing(though I can only say high reward in retrospect, at the time it was strictly a security signing) works out the same as yours to K-Rod. I don't get how a whole board who as a rule believe that relievers generally have huge fluctuations from year to year, and who put as much stock into K's/9, FIP, xFIP and look at his career as a whole would possibly be against this move. And again, I don't believe K-Rod couldn't have gotten 2 million from any number of teams. He's made his money. I believe he wants a job where he can earn a closers job, and Milwaukee fits that bill, despite Henderson's brilliance early in the year.

At what point are we going to keep on questioning Gennett's ability to hit the ball and become an everyday big leaguer? He just keeps on hitting at every single level, and every year I hear(read) how his skills won't translate to the next level. And as a guy who's been Weeks biggest fan, how many years can we afford to have a complete blackhole in the lineup for the first several months of the season...2-3-4 months how many times? I love everything about the guy his talent, toughness, power from 2nd base, worth ethic, leadership....but it's not longer a fluke that he's going to be god awful the first few months of the season. The guy can hit the ball, hit for a good average and is an ideal #8 hitter in the future, and Weeks half years of excellence and half year of absolute abysmal play(defensively this year as well as offensively). I love Weeks, and I really hope he can get hot, have great half a season or 4 months, whatever it may be, but I don't trust him up in a big spot anymore, I don't believe he's ever going to be the player his talent suggests and I think we need to stop searching for reasons why a minor leaguer who's moved up and performed at every single level won't be a good, above average starting 2nd basemen. He's a guy I think will be a lot closer to a .280/.340/.420 type guy with good D who hits 30 doubles and 8-10 HR's. Saves the money to spend elsewhere or better yet...NOT SPEND IT!! I know it's totally different, and I was pleasantly surprised the Brewers didn't overspend this year just for the sake of spending, but I'd like to see them build up a Packers like fund for when the opportunity arises. Bottom line, people have doubted Gennett at every single level, and we keep using Weeks season ending totals to justify his terrible, atrocious first 2-3 months of sub .200 hitting every year(seemingly). Sometimes players play above their measurables and I don't with there was minor league sabermetrics as the game is totally different. It's already analyzed to death. Gennett can hit the ball and he has a little power and should add more. Leave it at that without trying to break down why he's not really as good as his consistently good numbers suggest.

I realize that it's unlikely that if the Brewers are within contention or even just over .500 that it's highly unlikely that the Brewers would deal Kyle Lohse. I'm just curious what people think his value might be if we get to July for example and he's got a 3.10-ish ERA, he's health and pitching deep into games and perf, orming as he has the last two years? Teams were obviously skiddish about Lohse because of the draft pick, because of concerns that he was overrated, but if he can come to Milwaukee and still produce at the same level he has been, could this actually end up being a guy that we end up dealing? I would have to think there would be a plethora of teams who would love to have a guy like Lohse at a relatively cheap price the next two years given how he's produced the previous two and think we might actually end up getting more in return for him than the 17th pick was worth. Would seem to be a very good fit in Texas with the way he keeps the ball down and with the bigger ball parks in the division(though his home division obviously isn't). Very exciting how this team has bounced back and how they're performing extremely well....that said, a big part of the reason this team is looking good is because they have a guy named Jean Segura playing SS for them(and we have two light hitting SS's playing cornear IF spots somehow getting by). Remember, projections for Lohse were 5 years 75 million dollars. Would the Yankees come calling if they're in contention? The O's? Another great fit. Bring Fiers back up, or Jimmy Nelson for a few starts, Rogers if he can get his velocity up, or even a guy like Hellweg to see what he has. I know, I know, it doesn't fit the bill of how the Brewers do things. I'm glad they didn't go out and overspend on an Anibal Sanchez type guy and was actually impressed by their fiscal restraint this past off-season, but it'd be even nicer in a year in which we're almost certainly not going to make the playoffs to increase the value of Lohse and then turn him for a nice prospect.

Yeah, but by the time everyone gets back and is healthy, Yuni B will be....well...Yuni B again, and Weeks will be in the midst of bringing his .155 BA up to around .230. I'm over Weeks, my favorite player. You can't just put out a player that terrible for 65-70 games a year and hit him atop the lineup. But when everyone gets back healthy; Aoki-RF Segura-SS Braun-LF Aram-3rd Hart-1B Gomez-CF(he keeps hitting, that's a GREAT top 6) Lucroy-C Weeks-2B Weeks is best suited to hit 1st, 2nd or 8th IMO. And too many people want to try and argue that where you are in a lineup, or what inning you pitch doesn't matter, but baseball is such a mental game that I just don't buy that.

Just out of curiosity, what's the rationale behind having Braun batting second? I've always thought he was the perfect #3 hitter, and typically that's where a team's best hitter will sit in the lineup. Because sabermetics and Bill James tells you that. The argument is locial on paper and makes sense, but I just don't agree with it. I like having two talented guys with speed ahead of Braun. How many AB's are you adding to his season vs how many opportunities are you taking away from him hitting with runners in scoring position. I don't think moving him up one spot, especially when you have Aoki and Segura makes any significant difference. If we're talking about TODAY my lineup would be; Aoki(RF)-He still finds a way to get on base and his bunt hit yesterday was a HUGE play obviously with the HR that followed. Segura(SS)-perfect #2 hitter IMO Braun(LF) Lucroy© Yuni B(3B)-A shudder just went down my spine for even typing that. Gomez(CF)-He could be #2 and Segura #1 Maldanado/Gonzalez (1st)- Weeks-He's not hitting anything, not hitting for power. He's taking every first pitch fastball that comes his way. He'd fit in the 8 spot better than anyone else at this point IMO just to turnover the lineup. To be honest...and I've been beating this drum hard, I'd be fine with bringing up Gennett and giving him some AB's at 2nd base.

Yes we do have a team option for very cheap next year for 1.5 Million, the crazy thing he is arbitration eligible after next year and we can retain his rights for 3 more years if we want to. Highway robbery if you ask me. I don't believe we control Aoki after our team option. I'm fairly certain(not 100 pct, but close) that when you sign big on a Japanese player and sign them to a contract, you don't get 6 years of team control, just the contract you signed him for. That doesn't diminish what a great deal he's been. I think the Brewers kinda blindly took a chance on Aoki and they hit big. Gallardo is a great deal, and I always love signing young, top prospects to long term deals after they've shown they're capable. And I totally disagree with the 8.5+Schaefer over Gomez next year. Gomez has just continued to get better. I certainly don't expect a .338 BA(I don't even expect a .338 OBP, but if he could manage that, it becomes an even better deal). I love Weeks, and I understand he comes out well when you compare him to 2nd basemen around the league, but you have to look at consistency and he's off to his second straight season in which he's gone an extended period of time hitting .160-ish. Of course he had a great 2nd half last year, but you have to look at how a guy gets to his season numbers. Being as bad as Weeks has been early on recently skews his value IMO. By the way, to whoever asked or suggested that Lucroy doesn't get respect outside of Wisconsin, he was on the USA would baseball team.

I agree that any extension should be discussed this offseason and not right now, but the fact that Segura isn't in the Tulo/Braun category is why I don't think it would take 8 years / $40MM to extend him. He's not an elite player, but he and Peralta are by far the best young players we have. There's not even a close third. Barring something unforeseen happening, we aren't going to have many other pre-arby players who are worthy of an early extension for quite a while. Assuming he stays healthy and looks decent this year, if we can sign an extension which would buy out a couple of FA years and would give us a discount for assuming the risk, I'd do it. Just watching the way he goes about playing SS...the simple things, the first two outs of the Dodgers games...both seem insignificant, but both were very difficult plays that younger players tend to have trouble with. After reading my post, I didn't intend for it to be nearly as bullish as it was. That said, I think people using the 8 year 40 million dollar figure and saying, "that's too much, he's not in the Braun, Longo, Tulo category," are overlooking just how absurdly team friendly those deals really were, and the money that is now flowing into the game. Just take a 7 billion dollar TV deal from the Dodgers through the revenue sharing is going to provide the Brewers with a significant chunk of money. These new TV deals, the luxury tax revenue...smaller market teams are getting a bigger and bigger piece of the pie. So I realize the natural inclination to say, "no, he's not as good as the other players who signed similar contracts," but those contracts were signed 6 years ago and are outdated. And again, when I initially started this thread I was thinking about signing him NEXT year next off-season.

I'm sorry, the guy has been my favorite player...since he was drafted. I've constantly been convinced that once he got past THIS...the wrist injuries, the ankle injuries, the terrible starts...and then each year he does. He this great stretch, you put it all together and he ends up putting up very good numbers for a 2nd basemen and you're fooled into thinking he's a solid defensive 2nd basemen. I don't want to sound like I'm hyper reactive and I see a guy off to a slow start after a month and want him gone. I've just seen him disappear for too long for too many years and NOT make too many plays that a 2nd basemen should make that I think I'm finally off the Weeks bandwagon. He's an ideal team player, hard worker, everything about him as a person you love and want in your clubhouse and you can never quantify his impact on young players as a leader, how his toughness rubs off on people. But provided he ends up having the season I expect him to have, a .240-.250/.340/.460-ish line(which might even be high) and hit 20-25 HR's by the end of the season. Anyone else ready to move on and go with Scooter Gennett, or are we going to sit back and look at his cumulative OPS the last 5-6 years, see that he's in a group of probably 5-6 2nd basemen with a .800+ OPS and just deal with his progressively worse hot/cold streaks? Again, nobody has been a bigger Weeks fan than I, but Gennett has consistently proven he can rise to the level despite people constantly saying, "he'll struggle at the next level...he'll struggle when he sees more off-speed stuff...he won't hit for as much power once he hits this level," and yet he just consistently goes out and performs very well every year. When all is said and done, I think that Weeks will have the numbers and teams will look as his career and salary and be willing to give up a solid B prospect. He's going to be 31 years old, he'll have two more years on his contract and I just think it's time to move on. Thoughts?

And this is what sucks. We'll end up losing the better player and a guy who could be a vital backup this year and next year(if we decided to re-sign him) because Yuni B is off to such a hot start. I'd rather see Lalli get sent back down and keep Gonzalez until the real Yuni B shows up....

It is and yet somehow Yuni B has 17 RBI's already(I don't place a high emphasis on RBI's, but....just over 20 games into the season, that's telling you something). And I would argue that having Yuni B playing at 1st, Gonzalez playing at 3rd and Segura you've probably really helped out the pitching with a LOT more range than normal. Yuni B has looked AWESOME at 1st and 3rd as a whole. I get he's terrible at SS and player just...in general.....just awful. But he's actually replacing the production you'd be HOPING for from Ramirez early in the year! God I'd be a rich man if I'd have bet on something like that before the season. Throw out WAR 22 games into the year, he might be the 3rd/4th most valuable player on this team(Braun/Gomez/Segura). The only downside is that we're going to be seeing him on the roster either the rest of the year or until he is SOOO terrible for SOOO long that Melvin and Ronnie are convinced that this is just a fluke. Which means I doubt even when Aram and Hart come back we'll capitalize on his hot start and trade him to a team that could really use him.

At this point, any time I see someone question his defense, I want to bash my head against the wall. You don't find a better arm at SS in MLB, and his athleticism, glovework, and instincts are more than 'good enough.' He's certainly still a work in progress at the plate, but he's showing all the ability/potential we read about him having as a minor leaguer. I would also tender him a long-term extension right now. Offer the kid a life-changing amount of money when he's set to earn roughly a cumulative $1.35M over the next three seasons. I agree. And it's getting more and more frustrating to hear the "lets just wait and temper our expectations, he's probably not going to maintain this level of play/this is a short sample size." None of that changes my mind. I don't need every single I's dotted and T's crossed before I can come to the conclusion that he's a very talented hitter. Plus, nobody is saying he's Tulo. But lets also not act like he's just some guy that came up this year and all the sudden had a big start to the season. He's hit every and you can see his skills. Sometimes the eye test is actually...more important than the "2 years of sample size before discussing it," test. When someone says we don't have to even worry about his free agency for 6 years, did we wait 6 years before we started to think about Prince Fielder becoming a FA? Gallardo? No, if he's a good player, you have to start thinking about trying to buy out FA years a LOT earlier than the year he becomes a FA and we're bidding against everyone else. Bottom line, he could literally be hitting .250/.300/.325 right now and I'd absolutely be on board with signing him long term just from watching him play, his range, his approach, his bat speed, base running. And this is a big side note, but with all the money flowing into baseball, what do you think a FA is going to get in 2019 as compared to today? What's the inflation going to be? Give this kid some cash in hand to take care of himself for the rest of his life, buy out two years at 10 or so million and an option year. Again, not that he'll be Ryan Braun, but what would Braun be earning in the next two years had we not signed him? Probably a bit more than we'll end up paying for the first EIGHT years of his career.

Agreed. Being bad doesn't need to be confused for being lazy. Especially when you take his defensive contributions this year.

I was going to say the same thing... I think the fact that he is on a hot streak tends to make people forget what a lazy fielder he is, and how he rarely runs the bases at 100% either. When he comes back down to earth offensively, people will take a closer notice to his lazy fielding technique, and when he doesn't run a ball out, that will become more noticeable as well. The smoke screen he is laying down right now is nice, but it will end, and it will end hard. I think once people start watching him actually playing the game right NOW and start watching his defense at 3rd and at 1st, they'll stop suggesting that he's not putting forth effort defensively. He's been fantastic defensively and I'm as far from a Yuni fan as you can get, but there are just some people who refuse to watch a game, 7 games, 20 games and form an opinion on that rather than rely on their preconceived notions. Anyone who doesn't think he's been a very good defender this year at the corner IF positions...not sure what you're watching. Or anyone questioning his defense. He's a terrible player overall, but that doesn't mean you ignore the facts and evidence right in front of you.

How often does a prospect who hasn't played above A ball and is moved over from 2nd base to SS end up becoming a sensational defender at short, and a exceptional offensive player? I DESPISE the "prospects are just that, prospects," line when people talk about trading proven players for prospects, but you've now gone and taken it a step further suggesting, (paraphrasing)'well, if we got a player like Segura for Greinke, why not trade high priced veterans to teams for their young stars as well.' We got lucky on Segura. Or you can say we hit on Segura. He could have ended up hitting around .200 this year and struggled defensively and then we'd be hoping that Hellweg would develop into a frontline pitcher in order to justify the trade. And we're trying to win. Now I've advocated in the past trading Corey Hart. At one point when Bumgarner was rumored to be available, but if you're attempting to draw fans and bring players to the park, you can't just trade your best offensive players not named Braun. And if you do, you're asking teams to take back a lot of money for a guy like Aram in particular, but also Weeks. Teams don't get into bidding wars for position players in-season like they do for starting pitching. So for a lot of reasons. But again, the biggest two is because if teams know a player is going to give them 6 years of "AS potential for that much less money," why would THEY do it, and the demand isn't as strong for those players. You want to trade for another top prospect and a couple of elite young arms, Gallardo would be more likely. You't get higher prosepcts back, but even then you might not get a player who ends up as good as it APPEARS Segura will be.

Absolutely. I've been extremely bullish on Profar since well before the trade last year. I proposed actually giving up Greinke AND K-Rod or if need be Axford(when he was going well again) for Profar and many thought that was ridiculous. I see Profar as being a transcendent player. The premier SS for the next 15 years potentially. He a switch hitter with power already at 6'0 165, speed, a cannon for an arm, and VERY good defense who also has a good eye and can draw walks. I think Segura is a great player and I am on board with locking him up to a long term deal as early as next year or this off-season to buy out a couple free agency years as we did with Braun. I've seen enough of him and he passes every eye test. Quick hands, good gap power, very good speed, he has been surprisingly good at short(makes you wonder why you ever put him at 2nd to begin with). But I'd also take Evan Longoria over Ryan Zimmerman. And I think that's a close analogy to the types of players each are going to be relative to their position. Having a hitter who could put up a line of .300/.385/.450 with 20 HR's, 40 SB's and play great defense at short is a game changer and as highly as I think of Segura, I don't think he has the upside that Profar does, nor the floor. Nor does he have the injury history of Segura. That certainly isn't a huge factor, but it's just another check in Segura's collumn.

Exactly. And if this is an organizational philosophy, then you have the chance to make that decision with several young players in mind. If Segura works out, but Lucroy doesn't, you still come out well ahead. And if along the way an Orlando Arcia comes along, it's not real hard to trade talented SS who have the physical attributes that Segura does. I fully expect him to hit .200 or worse for a long stretch this season, to struggle in the field, but just watching his natural ability, quick hands, feet, ability to hit for some power and range/arm at short I'm convinced he's going to be a core player for a long time.

Yeah, I'd like to echo what Monty has said. And if you have a star SS who can do everything pretty well and effectively and you let him get close to free agency, you're going to pay in 2 years what you could have paid him over 8 years. Again, I understand the waiting a year, but the more I see him play, I don't see how you can ignore the talent the kid has. Again, it's the cumulative effect for me. Braun, Gallardo, Lucroy, Segura.....Hall. How much money did we save by buying out the FA years we did? Waiting until a guy is arbitration eligible, if Segura continues to perform well is going to mean he's going to be earning 6-7+ million dollars and the whole reason to sign an extension on his end is greatly minimized. Lock up your young position players as soon as possible and work to develop as many power arms as you can. That's the only way I can see the Brewers are currently constructed NOT becoming a 65-75 win team in the next several years.

So 98 MPH is the magic number for Axford? He can't be effective unless he's throwing 98 MPH? His velocity has been a fraction of the problem in his 3 outings he's struggled(two of which he was brought back out for another inning). With his slider or curve depending on which he can throw reliably, he has plenty of heat on his fastball to thrive in the closing role. Axford has now had 4 straight 7th/8th inning outings that have been very strong and clean. With Henderson humming along, I'd keep him in the closers role, but give Axford the SU position.

Well, setting aside the fact that he already signed with the Brewers, his 2012 seasons failures are being greatly exaggerated. He still struck out a batter per inning and had a FIP and XFIP in the 3.60-3.80 range. People can't constantly talk about how volatile relievers are and then write a guy off who hasn't been his entire career because of one season in which he wasn't outstanding. 72 IP, 72 K and an inflated HR ratio. He didn't fall apart of deal with a serious injury, or deal with a significant loss of velocity. And in reference to your last sentence, I suspect he wasn't willing to accept 2 million dollars on a team with an established, entrenched reliever earlier on in free agency. It's still just 2 million for a guy who was absolutely lights out last year despite having a couple of blow up outings.

I don't worry about it even a tiny bit, there is no way they can suspend him without him failing a test. This is such a complete non issue. The players union is too strong for you to spend even a second worrying about this. At worst MLB could put them in a legal battle for 5 or so years. If he does fail a test it would be 50 games too not 100. Yeah, I'm at a completely loss where this suspension talk is coming from in the first place, much less the nonsense of 100 games. Just kinda snatched out of the air like a balloon? It's ridiculous.

Same here, it was the pool money, the pick that really hurt. But Lohse has come in and pitched exceptionally well. He does have a pretty substantial history of pitching well to go off of now. And you can never tell what that "final piece," is going to be in building a WS winner. Year after year teams become more than the sum of their parts. Who's to say Gallardo won't have his best year this year as he's in the prime of his career, and that we won't have that one player who busts out that we really didn't expect to coming into the season. Peralta for example could just as easily put together a run like he did last year as he seems like a slow starter. Get Aram, Hart back, the BP has looked much better and there are definitely options in the minors in Hellweg, Thornburg, Nelson, Burgos and others where it's hardly beyond the scope that we could end up as an 87 win team, 85 win team. Or like the Cardinals who won the WS with what..83 wins? ON the flip side of that, if Lohse continues to pitch as well as he has and shows the type of command that he had, those teams that were interested, but didn't want to go 5 years 75 million or didn't want to give up the draft pick may find themselves in a position where they're contending and they lose a starting pitcher, or just need to add one and we end up getting more in return for him than we likely would have gotten from the 17th pick. You're looking at a pitcher that since the start of 2011 has a record of 30-11;3.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, as well as a 3.30 BB/K ratio. Clearly a guy who if not for the draft pick compensation would have easily eclipsed 3/33. In fact would have likely gotten 15 over 4-5 years.