HiAndTight

Joey Hamilton, farm system, trade for a Shields type, sign Greinke, and hope Lester and company can come around, and perhaps a Nick Swisher. Also re-sign Ellsbury. If they have Hamtilton in RF, Ells in CF, Swisher at 1B Rotation of Lester/Greinke/Shields/Buccholz/-they got two really good pitching prospects. They still have some nice pieces. Salty is a nice catcher, Pedroia as well as others.

I feel weird in delighting in their overall collapse in the past year. I've always been a Yankee-hater and moderate BoSox fan (spent a half-dozen summers in western Mass., lived in southern NH for three years). But the whole franchise just seems to have become semi-loathsome, starting with the first WS title. Same here. My greatest non-Brewer related experience was the 2004 ALCS just because I hated the Yankees. There was a time when I actually rooted for the Cubs and the Red Sox('03). I can't believe I actually ever did that....

Wow, no kidding. I think the Dodgers are going to be back in terrible shape in another two or three seasons, if it even takes that long. Ownership had to Make A Statement™... they're Committed To Winning™! I can't see how they'll be under the luxury tax by 2013 when it kicks in at 189. As I've been saying, this will come into play more and more and more with teams as so many big market teams will be bumping up against this, and they may not be willing to give a Rafiel Soriano 28 million dollars a year(1 million per 1 million over the 189 million). Or a million other examples. Just another team committing long term money to contracts that are inflated. I've said to those who think contracts are just going to keep rising, they're going to be the Hamilton type deals in which he gets 200-250 or whatever, but the other big FA's are going level off just as they have when you've had other clusters of big signings, and even more so with this luxury tax. Big market teams will have to start worrying about the bottom line, while the smaller market teams will continue to increase revenue from revenue sharing, the TV/Internet rights...etc..etc.... Again, Selig is just amazing in how he's worked this for the long haul to try and do what he can to create some semblance of equity in the sport. It won't be the NFL or even the NBA, but it'll be a lot closer to the later than it has been when you have 210 million dollar payrolls for the Yankees(which would result in 21 million in revenue sharing, which is why they've said they're not likely to re-sign Swisher and have to make big decisions on Cano and Granderson....no longer can they hand them blank checks). And the Dodgers will have Kershaw to pay, I imagine they'll give Ethier a at least a 7/100 type deal....and to me that's the best thing that could happen to the Brewers. We're doing better and better in this tiny market. When Wendy sold this team we had a payroll of 28 million. Now it was pushing 110 this year BEFORE the 20 million additional TV from our own deal and the 10 from MLB(plus other revenue sources that have increased). You'll see the Pirates, Royals, Brewers closing the gap significantly on the big market teams. We'll still lose out more times than not, but it won't just be a given. Right now I see the LAA, LAD, NYY, Philly, Tex as 5 teams at least that will be looking at that luxury tax in another year or at LEAST won't be able to throw money around to spend on every player they want. Other teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, CHW, SF,NYM, Wash..among others will also have to contend with that as well in the future..maybe not the first year, but in coming years. Please big market teams, continue to make TERRIBLE deals. The only thing that sucks is that the Red Sox where the team in this case that got out from under some of those contracts. It may not keep the contracts of Strausburg, Harper, Trout down, but it'll keep the other type deals down a bit...IMO. Which is part of the reason I've been so optimistic of the Brewers financial future for the last 2-3+ years.

Well the players the Dodgers are supposedly giving up are not all that great especially for what the Dodgers are getting. Even with the salaries that are involved with this move if all of the players truly are involved it seems like the Red Sox are getting a rather bad deal. As for free agency after this season who exactly would be better than Adrian Gonzalez and Crawford? Other than Josh Hamilton who would the Dodgers be interested in? Beckett and Punto there would be better options but the Dodgers really don't need another starter really and Punto is only going to cost $1.5m which is fine for a utility player. I would rather have Crawford and Gonzalez over Hamilton. Anyone is better than Carl Crawford. I'm guessing the Red Sox said if you want Gonzalez, you HAVE to take Crawford. He's getting paid 20+ million a year, and he won't play likely until the end of next year after TJ surgery. The Dodgers could have gone out and signed Josh Hamilton(A much better player than Agon) and played him with Kemp and Ethier to make the best OF trio in baseball by a LONG shot, and then signed Greinke to what seems to be a diminishing contract and been so much better off than having to give up your top prospects. Hell, you could have then packaged your top propsects for Felix Hernandez or whatever. I don't know. I just know giving Beckett 16 million over '13,'14, giving Crawford 21 million for the next 5 years when he has been injured constantly and to pay Gonzalez over 20 as well for another 5 years, you've really handcuffed yourself. This is a deal that I love as a Brewers fan. Please Dodgers, Phillies and the rest of the big market teams in the NL, keep spending a ton of money so that you eventually bump up against that luxury tax. The way Bud sorta slid that in there so that it appeared it would only impact the Yankees was masterful. And I question if the Red Sox would want to pay Greinke to pitch in Fenway, and equally important, if HE would want to pitch in Boston which I think is even more pressure packed than New York. I see this deal as a deal that is going to completely handcuff the Dodgers in the future. They'll be good, but they'll also be in a very difficult position to do a whole lot. The big TV deal is great, but they still vastly overpaid for the team, didn't get the full parking rights, and will have a luxury tax to deal with. Plus, have they re-signed Kershaw yet? That's going to be a MONSTER deal for probably a record for pitchers if he reaches Free Agency, and if it's signed in his final year of arbitration, it should at least match Hamel's deal. Kemp 8 years 160, they want to re-sign Ethier, Hanley for 16 or so for the next two years.... They've coined themselves(or their fans have), the Yankees of the West, but Yankees fans are a lot less fickle than Dodgers fans(and don't leave in the 7th because of traffic).

I think one of the biggest mysteries surrounding the Brewers minor league system to me right now is what the hell is the deal with Gian Rizzo? He's absolutely dominated in nearly every outing, but is he a guy who throws 85 and is just simply an advanced pitcher in a pitchers league, or is he a guy who throws 96 and can blow away hitters? I haven't heard anything in regard to what type of stuff he has. Do we have the next Pedro Martinez, or Tony Butler...

I started a thread about this, but what happens with Scarpetta? Due to the unique situation surrounding his signing and re-signing after he was drafted, is he due to become a FA this off-season? I was under the impression because he was actually injured, that his initial contract was negated, and then due to MLB rules, we had to sign him to an Major League contract...which is why the 4th option year last year was so important. Where does he fit into this equation?

I started a thread about this, but what happens with Scarpetta? Due to the unique situation surrounding his signing and re-signing after he was drafted, is he due to become a FA this off-season? I was under the impression because he was actually injured, that his initial contract was negated, and then due to MLB rules, we had to sign him to an Major League contract...which is why the 4th option year last year was so important. Where does he fit into this equation?

I started a thread about this, but what happens with Scarpetta? Due to the unique situation surrounding his signing and re-signing after he was drafted, is he due to become a FA this off-season? I was under the impression because he was actually injured, that his initial contract was negated, and then due to MLB rules, we had to sign him to an Major League contract...which is why the 4th option year last year was so important. Where does he fit into this equation?

Yeah, I was sorta hedging my bets there. Could he add a tick FROM Tommy John like many do, or will his velocity just spike in shorter stints? Before the TJ surgery it would have been logical to suggest he could hit 96-97 in the pen and probably average maybe 93.5-94-ish. Maybe he gets 2-3 MPH with TJ and the shorter stints and he's a 97-98 guy. With his hammer curve, he'd be pretty similar to Axford. In a perfect world, I'd like to see him spend next year as a starter working his way back to AA by starting him off in A ball, and then when he feels good again, a move up to AA. Then you just kinda see how he pitches. If he warrants a look at the big league club which I'd have to say is unlikely outside of a Sept. callup, or if you just move him up the next logical level to AAA. But if you put him on waivers I just wonder what'll happen to him. A team like KC for example claims him, puts him on the 60 day, then they max out his rehab....at which time they're likely out of the race and they can see what he can do. It could end up hurting him in the long run, not getting another two years of development. But again, I'm not even certain how this would work. Would he have to sign a minor league deal?? I'm just not certain what situation we're in with him moving forward.....

I'd be all for it. If you look at his game log, it's been groupings here and there, about three of them in total that has really led to such an inflated ERA. And he's a guy who's been a good reliever for his entire career. It's not like he came over last year, had half a good year, then had the type of year he's had this year. I think if he looks good the rest of the way, a 2/6 type deal should be offered, and he has to know that this is a place he will at least have a chance to compete again for the closers role should he perform well. It's the BP. It's just as likely the two of them return to their 2011 form as it is they perform like they did this year, worse than this year, one is great, the other is terrible. But with a guy like K-rod who has two very good secondary pitches, I think you'll see a little revival to his career where he pitches backwards a little bit more to help him hang around for another 7-8 years barring injury and get people out. I think he'd test the FA market, but, you're right, I don't think there will be a team that will offer even half of what he made this year(which would be 4.25). And I'd either go 2/6 or 1/4. I think spending 5 million on your CL/SU man is well within reason. The thing is, after that, it's just so baffling. You could argue that Parra should be brought back because he may be the most unhittable pitcher NOW on the roster when he's on and ahead in the count, but he's too often not ahead in the count. Still, I could see him going elsewhere next year and putting up a 2.25 type ERA. Loe-Again, by himself, I'd like to see him back cheap as I really like him when his ball is moving and when he can get on top of that sinker. But too often he hasn't been able to do that this year. My opinion differs with others on this, but I think with the 10 million they're supposed to be getting from MLB from TV and internet deals, the new TV contract that kicks in that adds 20+ million and the increased ticket prices, the Brewers will not only be able to stay where they where last year payroll wise, but add to it, at least in the short term. Their lineup is rock solid IMO with the only questions being what to do with Carlos Gomez/LoganSchafe and then Mat Gamel/Aoki as I think Hart's locked up 1st base. So I could see Greinke being brought back, MAYBE another cheaper FA Starter who cano 200 innings and then some money on the BP. Maybe bring back K-Rod, or maybe a couple guys like Randy Choate to give us a legit Loogy and a guy like Grant Balfour. Though Balfour may be a little too costly for a BP arm and might require a 3 year commitment at 4-5 million.

I continue to pine for Greinke and am actually rooting for him to fail lin LAA so the Angels aren't interested in investing big in him. It's almost like an ex that I'm not over. And since I am of the belief that free agency is changing with the looming luxury tax and that teams are becoming more cognizant of the luxury tax and will be less likely to go nuts in Free Agency(though I know everyone will point to last year, there have always been outliers in the FA market, I don't think we're seeing the inflation that others believe. I think just like other periods when guys like Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Albert Belle, Derek Jeter, Darren Driefort, Chan Ho Park, then Arod, and so on, the market then settles down a bit. Pujols and Prince where excetions in MY opinion. So I think our competition for Greinke will likely come from teams that traditionally wouldn't be interested. The Tigers, Angels and Dodgers(unless they go through with that...ridiculous deal in which they take on Crawford and Beckett's deal) will be the bigger market teams with the Rangers focussed on Hamilton or perhaps trading for Shields. After that, I think KC is a legit threat...I could see him going home as some of their young guys are hitting their stride, Pitt I think would be wise to spend on a rock for their rotation as they could easily be a WS contender if Cole makes the jump next year and they dangle Taillon and Marte to the D-backs for Upton and then spend on Greinke with McDonald, Burnett, Cole and a number of #5 options. But I remained convinced his experiance in Milwaukee, and the Brewers opinion of him is high enough that unless the old pizza man from Detroit goes nuts, we'll be competitive with the other teams in on him. So with all that said... Greinke Gallardo(though if there was any truth to the rumors that we could get two of Bauer, Skaggs or Bradley for him, I'd do that in a second) Edwin Jackson-2/22 rather than Marcum if he has as much trouble signing next year as he did this past year. Tyler Thornburg-Not sure about him yet. Not very impressed in him at the big league level but that was like a flash. Just didn't have that "wow," secondary pitch that Rogers did or the explosion on his fastball. But I think he's a safer bet. Mike Fiers-I think he could be a great #5 Wily Peralta-In case my obsession with Greinke doesn't come to fruition. Estrada-Swing Rogers-could also be a swing, still like to see a little more work on his command in AAA. Narveson is a huge question mark. Nelson's still a full year away I think. I'd like to see him dominate the first half at AA and then move up and be a call away. Burgos-Still don't know what to make of him. That's 8 pretty viable in house options without using Free Agency we have to go to next year that are all pretty viable with Nelson knocking on the door and not counting Marcum(who is probably more realistic at 1/10 than Jackson is). And with younger talent that looks like it COULD contribute in Jungman, Bradley(still haven't lost confidence), Hall, Ross will be back next year as will Scarpetta hopefully, Lopez, Miller and others hopefully the Brewers inability to produce from within has been rectified as it'll have to be with such a large number starters from this year gone. Makes you appreciate what an absolute ROCK Gallardo has been in that rotation over the last several years....but I'd still take my chances on that proposed D-backs trade that'd give us two guys with higher ceilings, though unproven.

I still like him a lot, and if it wasn't for the issue with him signing, he'd still be under control, but keeping him on the 25 man at this point would likely be akin to keeping a rule 5 pick. There are just so many guys ahead of him in the pecking order, and this was the worst time for him to suffer an injury that cost him a season. I thought he was on course for a Peralta like 2011 type season. He'd missed a whole lot of bats throughout the minors with a 10 K/9 ratio at age 21 in A+ before seeing that number dip significantly to 7.5 in AA at 22. Overall he's still at 9.5 for his minor league career, but he's also at 4.6 BB/9 which has been a pretty consistent problem. In situations like these, do we just offer him more than you'd offer your average minor leaguer and start him back off in A ball next year to get his feet wet in May or whenever he's ready to throw again(he had TJ surgery early last May, so I think him starting on the 25 man is out of the question either way). Just wonder what our options are. Obviously everyone here knows TJ is almost routie to come back from now, and hell, if he could be a guy to add a tick and be able to hit 96-97 as a reliever, with his fastball-curve combo, he could be a very useful BP arm in '14. I'm just hoping we don't lose him after this year without ever really finding out what he's capable of. I know it's unlikely, but he may be one of the hopefully two or three guys from our wide assortment of minor league arms to figure it out and impact the team at the next level. We'll see though.

Minus Coultier? He's 1 for 2 with a BB and 2 RBI's. I'd like to see more power out of him, but I suspect the 6'3 220 pound former HS State Wrestling Champ will add the power. It's awesome to see him hit for some average and draw some walks though.

I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. Baldelli very well may have been a superstar if not for an illness that ultimately ended his career. Soto was never an elite prospect and didn't start out his career with back to back AS type seasons, so if they'd have signed him after his ROY season, you wouldn't be talking about a contract nearly this big, and if they'd have signed him after his third season, they'd have regretted it. But I think that's still a smarter way to go about it. If Rizzo continues to hit well this year and then puts up another big year next year, he'd be another guy if I where the Cubs I'd sign. But what I don't understand if why you're talking about prospects. When you have 405 games played and a WAR of 8 in about 2 1/2 seasons, you're not a prospect anymore. The only prospect you mentioned was Covey, and there you're talking about a 2 million dollar risk, hardly a big deal, and he certainly doesn't fit into this discussion IMO. And as far as Boras spreading out the risk, so to can the Clubs if you have enough impact talent coming up together.

I'm not sure what you're referring to specifically with Vitters throwing the ball into RF as I didn't see it, but it's very possible he's got ADHD. Or he's just 22 and gets bored when the stakes aren't very high, or he's just not that mature yet....it's something he obviously has to fix. But I think the .270/.310/420 line someone posted as though they'd be thrilled to have that, I think we're going to have that in Segura by the way, but I think that's the floor on Castro(which may have been the point being made). I think he has the skills to be a solid defender at SS and a .310/.355/.475 hitter. Lets keep in mind, again, he's still just 22. But I agree with the premise. Even if he doesn't perform like he did his first two seasons, with the SS position the way it is right now, he's certainly a very valuable player.

Well, he's 22 years old, a two time all-star, a .300 career hitter in three full seasons, and still has a lot of room to grow. He's struggled a little bit this year, but his age 20 and 21 seasons combined he hit .304/.343 and a .766 OPS in about 285 games. When you look around at SS play right now, I'd place him in that elite category overall. I remember when arguing for Profar was a SS who had a set of skills no other SS in the game had, argued vehemently that Castro did and was a better bet and it seemed like others agreed. Either way, the comment regarding Soto for the Cubs, If you have enough really high ceiling young players and you sign them to these types of deals, the amount of money they're leaving on the table makes up for a player or two not "hitting." For instance when we had Hardy, Hart, Weeks, Prince, Braun and Gallardo. We signed Gallardo and Braun(I left Prince out as he wasn't going to sign) if we signed all of them to long term deals(not for 7/60, but early on in their careers like with Braun) then we'd still have saved money despite losing out on Hall and McGehee(had he signed). If I was the Rays, I'd be trying to sign Moore, Hellickson, Jennings and perhaps a couple others to long term contracts now and risk a couple becoming a bust because if a guy like Moore pans out, you could have a player who is one of the most overpowering and more dominant pitchers in the game locked up if he pans out while Hellickson and Jennings could both become regular all-star types.

He was issued an additional option year this past season, his 4th, correct? And after missing out on much of the year, he's certainly not a guy who's likely to be in any contention to make the Brewers roster next year. I'm just curious if he's a guy that's going to be back next year, or if he'll likely be gone. He's a guy I'm a pretty big fan of...reminds me a bit of Sheets with the 95 MPH fastball and the hammer curve, though obviously lacking the command. Anyone have any thoughts?

By the way, just to add, I don't hear people banging down the door suggesting that he's a MVP candidate. In fact, I don't hear a whole lot about him. I think unless McCutch has a Hart-Hardy-Weeks(any RH'er on the Brewers team other than Braun) circa 2008 type Sept, you're pretty much looking at your MVP with Beltran and a couple others(Braun) settling in pretty distantly behind him.

Yeah, you certainly dominated him in that discussion if he didn't come back with this type of logical and reasoned response. I do believe in Milwaukee for instance, he'd be a .290 hitter with 25-28 HR's and a great #2 hitter, and a very good CF'er. He's a helluva player. His numbers are just inflated. But as has already been stated, he plays most of his away games in Petco the biggest pitchers park, SF a miserable park for lefties, and Dodger stadium, another pitchers park. I'm with Brew on this one..or close. I think he's an .850-.900 OPS guy elsewhere.

is that really what you hope for? a 4ish ERA? He's capable of maintaining a mid 3's ERA with a K per inning k9. Ok, I'm hoping for a 2.3 ERA, but I'd be very satisfied with a 4ish. I think I realize the push behind spappzilla's negativity towards the Brewers. His expectations are so insanely high that of course they're not going to meet them. Of course on the flip side, he's got extremely low expectations such as for their payroll management. Which brings me to MLS1965's comment; It really is. Pitchers generally don't go through the shoulder surgeries, the missed seasons...which if added up have to equal..what, 3 full seasons now? The struggles in the lower minors before the injuries and then finally after MORE than 8 years full years from the time they were drafted all the sudden make it to the big leagues and show the type of just plain FILTHY stuff that he showed last night vs the Cubs. But, again, in keeping it in perspective, despite the fact that he had as nasty a slider as any Brewer has had this year currently on the roster, he still gave up 3 ER's over 5 IP and his ERA is still 5.02. Because rookie pitchers take a little while extra.

I think you meant to say Rogers, not Gallardo. There's 2 guys in Oakland named Parker and Blackly that sort of disprove your theory though. I'd count this as Fiers first year also. All those guys in Washington, while not rookies, aren't exactly veterans either. You are right about the bullpen though. They could have 3 or 4 starters with ERA's under 4, and if the bullpen isn't fixed, it will all be for naught. Really? How do they disprove his theory? If Logan Schafer is brought up, I would say it's not fair to expect him to hit .345, steal 39 of 42 bases, play exceptional defense at a extremely important defensive position while hitting for 30-35 HR's and posting an WAR of about 9.0 just because a guy in the same division you reference has done it. Mark Rogers has been through hell and back. I'll say it right now, if he throws 160 innings, makes 30 starts, and has a 4.50 ERA next year, I'll be happy. Fiers on the other hand, I think there's something a little special about the way the ball comes out of his hand, and I think he'll be more in the 3.50-ish range. But even as I say that, I know that's a lot to ask. Rookie pitchers get figured out relatively fast in major league baseball. Which is why I don't think, even with the lineup we have on the field not performing well that we'll be contenders next year...even if we have a BP like we did last year. It'll be Gallardo and 4 unproven guys, or a couple of "proven," #4 starters. Now if I happened to get off topic and we ended up re-signing a certain pitcher than I think you'd have two proven arms, you could hope for one guy to break the mold and have enough between the rest to contend. But that's only with Greinke back and that's obviously unlikely(though IMO getting much-much more likely everyday...I'm predicting either Detroit, LAA or small market team making a splash, Pitt, KC....or us). Anyway, unless you're talking about just super elite pitchers, they usually don't maintain excellence throughout a season, they struggle. Simple as that. Fiers if he made 35 starts this year or 33..whatever would probably have a bad second half, just as Cal Eldred would have, just as most anyone not named Lincecum, Strausburg of players of like will early on. .......but I'm certainly hoping Ender's wrong.

This is only true for comparisons between players with the same number of chances. Ozzie Smith was in the top 10 for most errors by a shortstop more times (5) than Derek Jeter has been (3) No, a lot of errors is bad for pretty much every single player and very few errors is good for pretty much every single player. Far be it for me to come to Briggs "rescue," but my god this is nitpicking. His point was simple and pretty clear, and when it wasn't absolute, there was no need to literally bring up the greatest defensive SS of all time. On to a more important point, I would argue that having Corey Hart at 1st base has helped him as I think he's helped the IF in general, but of course Aram had a better version of Hart defensively in Lee. Just by the eye test, Aram has been a really good defender this year, and while I know a lot of times the eye test tells you what you want it to, I think in this case, he has had a much better year at 3rd than he normally has.

No, Tom H. isn't the weird one, people who consider FIP and xFIP and..well just all the advanced metrics are the "weird," ones. I try to argue with some friends why pitcher A is better than pitcher B...or hell, just with Greinke last year(though I've come to accept his peripherals will always be a little mis-leading) and they just utterly dismiss it. Don't know it, don't understand it, don't care, it's Wins, ERA, Batting Average, HR's, RBI's, OBP is even somewhat dismissed. I remember arguing with people when Weeks was hitting .239 or whatever, but his OBP was .135 points higher that he was doing good as a leadoff hitter and getting outright laughed at. What's more, look at the list of GG winners in a given year? Is the standard improving? Sure, no doubt. Is it still mainly fielding pct, and name recognition? Without a doubt. Do I hate asking questions in my post and then answering them? Yes. Anyway, he's a good offensive player who's had a very solid season defensively and has very few errors. Ergo....GG candidate. Christ...didn't the finger waggler win a GG at 1st base with the O's in the late 90's with like 30 games played in the field and the rest as a DH? Again, getting better, but it's tough to win a GG hitting .250/.290. Ask Carlos Gomez...

Why? Is the AL Central THAT difficult? I think sometimes these moves are exaggerated. It didn't really do Greinke "wonders," as he didn't see a huge spike in numbers making that same move. I don't think the Royals, Twins, White Sox, and Tigers are a whole lot more dangerous than the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates and the Cubs. In fact the first three of those teams are pretty damn good, and the Cubs have some young pieces they're starting to bring up. Well someone mentioned ERA, which obviously will look betting in the NL facing a pitcher instead of a DH. With the Astros moving out and the Pirates improvement, I assume there will be less mentioning of an NL Central "effect" in the future. Yeah, obviously not having to face a DH is nice, but I think the idea that you take a 4.00 ERA pitcher in the AL and move him to the NL and he's going to see this huge improvement can be a bit overblown. Marcum who came from the AL East saw almost an identical ERA and his peripherals where a touch worse. There is the issue of not having to face a DH, but that's because you now have to hit. Which can have an impact on pitchers as well. I think in the end my just off the wall guess is you'd see a .2 ERA difference between the leagues and less than that from the AL Central to the NL Central. In fact, I think the NL Central's going to be better in the very near future.

Why? Is the AL Central THAT difficult? I think sometimes these moves are exaggerated. It didn't really do Greinke "wonders," as he didn't see a huge spike in numbers making that same move. I don't think the Royals, Twins, White Sox, and Tigers are a whole lot more dangerous than the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates and the Cubs. In fact the first three of those teams are pretty damn good, and the Cubs have some young pieces they're starting to bring up.