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HiAndTight

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Everything posted by HiAndTight

  1. HiAndTight
    $6 million dollars. That is a useful stat. $6 million dollars for a .809 OPS and great leadership? It could be argued that the money could have been better spent but we did make the playoffs and Cameron was a big part of that team. I think most here would be thrilled if Gomez posted an .809 OPS this seasonThe most telling stat in '08 for Cameron was his .507 postseason OPS (extremely small sample, though I'll note that his career postseason OPS is .581, with a career .174 batting average in 92 postseason at-bats) $6m is a steal for good defense and a .809 OPS in CF. You can safely ignore the rest. Postseason stats are about the same as taking a random series from the season. Means nothing. If you don't believe strikeouts and BA are not good for evaluating hitters by now, I don't know what else to say. They are not useful at all unless you are comparing 2 players who are otherwise very similar. Gomez so far and Cameron 2008 are not. We have drastically different ways of evaluating players and I think you are using very bad stats as the base for your evaluation. Not useful at ALL is pushing it quite a bit. There are much better stats out there, but ignoring that they have any value is equally ridiculous.
  2. HiAndTight
    I'm not talking about "WAR" or relative value, I'm talking real life value. Over 3 games of Marco Estrda, I think there's more than a good chance Zach Greinke would lead us to another win. Games aren't played with players earning 7.1 wins over a replacement player, or whatever number you want to assign to a guy. Those are nice numbers to compare players and evaluate them.
  3. HiAndTight
    Waaaait a second. You're predicting 83 wins, but over the course of 162 games, knowing baseball as well as you do, you'd be "shocked" to see that win total move to 85? That's like saying there's no WAY Greinke will get 17 wins...I think he'll get 16. Anyway, to your points, Lucroy and Hart may well start on the DL, and both should be back very soon. Grienke's injury is a short term deal and not one that should linger for any reason. Marcum's a little more concerning, but he's confident it's not a big deal.
  4. HiAndTight
    Why would the Cubs concede the division at this point and operate under the assumption they are only played for 3rd? Fukudome is a very solid RF'er and that team is talented enough that if they have some guys bounce back, they could be a very good team. A 1-3 of Zambrano, Dempster and Garza could be very good. Lineup of Aram, Soriano, Soto, Pena, Fukudome/Colvin, Castro and Byrd COULD very well provide a lot of pop, and they've got a loaded back of their pen. What's more, Fukudome, as I said is a positive player. I'd welcome him in Milwaukee right now. Suppan was bad. I would never equate the two.
  5. HiAndTight
    "I told you so" would have been easier.
  6. HiAndTight
    Everyone seems to assume that the starts he misses are a guaranteed loss that would have been a guaranteed win had he started them. Would it help if he was there? Of course, that's why the farm was decimated for him. It's not a binary type of situation however. Well obviously I said that in jest, and nobody's claiming it's a "binary" type situation. I think it's reasonable to assume that over 3 starts, there is a high probability that throwing...whomever we throw over Zach Greinke could cost us a win.
  7. HiAndTight
    I would have. Narveson is a much better bet moving forward to be a productive and reliable starting pitcher. I appreciate what Capuano did for us, and I think he got a lot of unjustified criticism in the last year+ he was healthy in Milwaukee, but he's had two TJ surgeries, and there are huge questions about his ability to pitch a full season. I also think at this point Narveson has better stuff. I just don't think it'd have been a wise to promise the spot to a guy with considerable questions when we're trying to put together the best possible team. We did a similar thing last year with Jeff Suppan, and while that was obviously different with regard to the financial considerations, the fact of the matter is that we basically promised a pitcher a starting spot to try and maintain our depth. I don't think Capuano deserved that type of consideration. I think Melvin did the right thing by being honest with such a respected former Brewer and I think things ended about as well as they could have.
  8. HiAndTight
    I completely agree. We've put ourselves in a situation this year where we've got a lot of high end, blue chip talent on this roster, but in order to acquire that talent, rather than trotting out the Randy Wolf, Doug Davis and Braden Looper types as, we've got top end starting pitchers. Obviously Wolf is still there, but he's there as our #4 now, not #2. I think it was a fantastic strategy, in particular because I think Greinke's a guy who is as talented as any pitcher in the last 10 years, but as you say, we cannot afford to lose any of the top 7-8 players on this roster. Not only in terms of replacing that talent from within, but in terms of having the minor league talent to trade for in the event that someone went down. All we can do is cross our fingers, hope things go well, and hope that we can take the departure of Prince next year and try to pick up 3-4 other players in an attempt to try and improve our depth a bit despite the big loss atop the roster.
  9. HiAndTight
    Not me. They tend to do this with a player who had an injury that lingered. It's a broken rib, this isn't some obscure injury that nobody's had before. That Ellsbury struggled to come back strong is of little consequence to me. I agree that I don't see this being an injury that's going to linger all season. We're not talking about a muscle in which there is no clear cut way to identify when it's healed, ie, Sheets shoulder muscle that he hurt a couple times the last couple years in Milwaukee. I think he'll be back strong after he misses his 3 starts and this will soon be forgotten.....unless we miss the playoffs by one game..........
  10. HiAndTight
    Do you have a link to that? I've heard just the opposite. That they have room in the budget to add some salaries. The last I've seen/heard the payroll was around 85-86 million. If so, I'd think we'd have some room to work with. Especially given the commitment they've made this year and the looming TV deal that will kick in shortly providing us with a significant boost in revenue.
  11. HiAndTight
    Doesn't the meds he's taking now take care of chemical imbalance?
  12. HiAndTight
    I disagree. Kendall interpreted the question exactly right and gave the honest, if not politically correct, response. Of course any minor leaguer worth his salt hopes to make the team out of Spring Training and doesn't want to get sent down because of service time considerations. If the prospect answers honestly, he gets blowback for not being a team player. Or he can lie and give the cliche' response. Either way, it puts the onus on the prospect instead of management where it belongs. The manner of Kendall's response wasn't proportional to the question, but he probably said what every prospect in a similar situation was thinking. Robert Except the question wasn't do you want to make the team, the question was basically how do you feel about the fact that you won't because of service time rules.
  13. HiAndTight
    Obviously you always want front-line starters. But with the failure rate of those guys and the place the Brewers are in right now, a lot of pitchers in the upper levels and almost no sticks, I'd just assume go for the guys who are safer bets and see if we can't get a couple of impact bats. If one's a SS, all the better. A SS and a corner stick would be nice. Not that I can't understand those who'd just draft top end pitching(almost)every year...lot of validity to that as well.
  14. HiAndTight
    I think you're overestimating the average fan. I think a lot of them see the 16/78 and they'll easily give him.....a week..maybe two..
  15. HiAndTight
    It's a helluva lot easier to get a read on a guys pitching using numbers than it is to get a read on a guys defense. Betancourt is a a bad offensive player who at least hits for some power, and we'll see just how bad he is defensively. He was also a guy with a lot of tools when he came up, so perhaps a contender will help him rededicate himself.
  16. HiAndTight
    My mistake, I did read through it clearly and I combined the negativity toward Lawrie's response with your post. I don't believe that Lawrie was traded at all because of his future position however. I think the Brewers would have been thrilled to hold onto him and traded any other two prospects(from our current system). I think it's as simple as he was their best trade chip, they needed pitching. I think it was a bad trade...but in light of the Greinke trade(Which was amazing) I don't have near the problem with it.
  17. HiAndTight
    I don't see this as being the case at all. Otherwise wouldn't you have to assume that Odorizzi, Cain, Escobar and Jef....(err...maybe you've got one there) all had attitude problems as well and the organization wasn't a good fit for them? He was by far our most valuable prospect and we used him to get a #2/3 pitcher. I don't look at it as much more than that.
  18. HiAndTight
    Seriously...if the Brewers were willing to give Prince 20 million....30 million for Pujols? Though that righteous....."person" to avoid breaking any rules...wouldn't likely come to Milwaukee even if we offered him 300.
  19. HiAndTight
    Great analogy.
  20. HiAndTight
    I can't imagine the Indians would have any trouble finding teams willing to take on his salary. If he were a FA I'd have to imagine there would be a line of teams willing to sign him for his '11 salary. Sizemore was one of the most valuable players in the game, and the prospects of him returning to that value has more appeal to the Brewers than just about any other team given how weak we are in CF. I think the Indians would want one top prospect in return for him.
  21. HiAndTight
    I used to be of the belief that closers were overrated, but being able to lock down the 9th inning is pretty damn big and not every pitcher can do it. I question that Axford will be able to do it and worry he may be another Turnbow type, but we'll see.
  22. HiAndTight
    That would be interesting. We spent about 95 million last year and with the complete gutting of the farm system, we'll see where they are willing to go this year. I would think at least that high should the opportunity to add a player who could put us over the top arise.
  23. HiAndTight
    Except with the NFL draft you're simply guessing who will be successful. Here you're getting legit MLB players, 3 of them, all pitchers, all having a lot of past success.
  24. HiAndTight
    Funny, I looked at the list and he was one of the guys I figured the Yankee's or another big market team would eventually sign him and he was out of our budget. I was zeroing in on a reclamation project like Juan Cruz or someone of his ilk. I would have guessed Saito would have signed for 5 million this year. Not that far off what he COULD make, but still quite a bit more.
  25. HiAndTight
    Like I said, Japanese players are willing to play in the Midwest. Saito isn't the 1st, and won't be the last. No, but I think the point is they're far more likely to play in a area with a higher Asian population. The Bucks ran into this issue with Yi(yes, I realize he's not from Japan). It's one thing when they've got the posting system, then they're pretty much destined to go to those places either way, but given the choice why would a Asian player choose Milwaukee over Seattle? LAD? Boston, NYY? Of course they WILL play in Milwaukee when they're generating little interest and are 41 years old(not to diminish how much I love this move), but we've yet to see the same interest from the better players.
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