HiAndTight
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Everything posted by HiAndTight
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I can count no less than 10 guys in this system and probably every other who have the POTENTIAL to be legit aces. But as you look around MLB....there's a reason why there are so few aces. Mark Rogers can be an ace. I can't fathom anyone arguing that based on his pure ability. But, he's missed two full season, has control problems, still has some, some mechanical issues repeating his delivery, his secondary pitchers aren't where they need to be and he's pitched very little relatively speaking to a budding 1/2 type pitcher. He could be a super 4/5 who has some great games and then goes 3 2/3 with 6 BB's 3 K's and gives up 5 runs, and he could do both fairly often as it stands now. Jeffress, Odorizzi, Heckahtorn, Peralta, Scarpetta, Arnett(even with his struggles), Hell Parra....and others. We've got lots of "potential aces". I don't have much faith in any of them save for Odorizzi and he'd have to become a pitcher like Gallardo, a questionable ace in somes minds to make it to that status. So I don't think we're down on him, we just see what he's done and don't see a future ace. That could EASILY change. Hope it does.
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GREAT post and echo's my points very well. I'd prefer to start with a guy who has the same numbers but a little more margin of error, especially if we're giving away a guy I value as highly as I do Lawrie.
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94.894.7 90.9 91.7 93.7-two years after TJ He's lost over a MPH, so if you want to argue that he hasn't lost much velocity, fine, dismiss 1 MPH as it's not that significant, but he's certainly not gaining velocity.
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How is Liriano not back to pre-TJ status? Because he didn't match the 2.16 ERA he logged in his 2nd season when he pitched only121 innings? He still put up a 3.62 ERA (even with an unlucky .340 on BABIP) during a full season rather than 2/3rds of one. Carpenter, Hudson, Liriano, Rafael Soriano, Billy Wagner......... Just a few guys off the top of my head that have had TJ surgery and have come back just as good or better. It's a pretty common surgery now and with Marcum pitching as well as he did last season, it's pretty evident he is recovered and it should not be a major concern. Because the context of the discussion was his fastball and he was throwing 94-95 before the surgery. The argument's being made that he's added a tick. He has not. That's all.
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Maybe he slept through through the playoffs. Or maybe he looks at his two rookie pitchers, plus Cueto, Bailey and Volquez along with Arroyo and thinks they MIGHT just stand to improve with seasoning.
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And he's still not back to pre-TJ status, so he's not a good example of TJ actually helping him.
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Pretty much perfect for the Cubs to make a play on Prince next year......
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Man I'd love to add him. Completely unrealistic, but it's difficult to understand just why the Cardinals don't like him....or don't seem to like him anyway.
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Fair enough, but it amazes me when people allow their personal biases to turn into "concrete" facts. You like Lawrie, a lot, we get that, but show me something that shows we just gave up the next Ryan Braun. I haven't seen anything out there that suggests this. I haven't ever seen a tool that allows to compensate age when comparing players and what they have done at certain levels or I would have used it. He has played good, but could just as easily fall off the face of the earth. Yup, that's GOT to be it. If you don't agree, well then it MUST be a personal bias, not an opinion as a Brewer fans. That's asinine. I've never met the kid and I don't know him. I wouldn't want Gallardo traded either. I suppose that's a "personal bias" as well? Look, Lawrie was the 15th ranked prospect in baseball at the mid-season point last year, and I suspect he's moving up at least a few spots when the next list comes out. Where was Braun ranked? But because Braun a couple years older put up better numbers, to compare the two leads you down the road that the only one way one could think Lawrie would be a comparable hitter is having a biased? Great argument....
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Pirates sign Kevin Correia - 2/8m deal
HiAndTight replied to jjkoestler's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This was exactly the amount I said I thought would be worth giving to Correia. I must say, I don't understand why some are SO down on Correia. He wouldn't be a bad option for the backend at all. I'm not going to shed a tear because we didn't sign him as he's just a guy to me, but I wouldn't have been too disappointed to see him added for 4 million to round out the rotation. I'd certainly prefer that to 10 million a year for 2-3 to Pavano which I still fear may be coming. -
"On a scale of 1 to 5 tool playaz, this guy is definitely a 5" That had me laughing. I do feel a little bit bad for the guy. In the interviews I've heard with him he seems like a nice kid. Who of us didn't have a 40 in our hands at one point in our teenage years. Fortunately facebook didn't exist when I was doing stupid things. He also got his first taste of the big leagues today, when the Milwaukee-based blog MillerParkDrunk.com posted a handful of embarrassing pictures from his Facebook page. The more embarrassing possibility, of course, is that these pictures do not embarrass him. This part had me laughing.....and I do wonder if there is a bit of truth to it. Still, I can't fathom what my facebook page would look like if I had one when I was 17-18-19..... Anyway, you obviously prefer a guy to be like Weeks, but for a 20 year old kid I don't think these are really all that damning. The biggest difference between his personality and Braun's is that Braun seems to be a lot more intelligent when it comes to his PR. There have certainly been some stories about his "shenanigans" while out on the town in Milwaukee. And incidentally, his personality was what Lawrie was compared to immediately after getting drafted.
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Which meant that he was either going to be moved off 2B now so he could play at AAA which would ding his value or he would stay at 2B at AA behind Farris at AAA and ding his value.Or it means they were going to move him over to 3rd as they suggested last season. I get some like this trade more than others, but I don't get this need to try and make every comment about him as negative as possible. I don't think anyone truly believes he was staying in AA in favor of Farris this year. That seems rather absurd. I also don't get why the part where Melvin talks about how versatile he is and how he is capable of moving and fitting in to a lot of positions is glossed over in favor of the "return to AA" idea.
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C'mon. We've been over this. Braun had 3 years of college. Lawrie is now 2 years out of high school and already in AA. It amazes me how often people just blindly compare minor league stats without taking into consideration the ages of players at each level.
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I agree Lawrie could become a great player. However I'm curious what makes you think he'll reach this level, since the OBP and SLG numbers you project are significantly higher than any of his minor league numbers. Because usually hitters add power as they grow, and Lawrie as a 20 year old in AA showed pretty good plate discipline.
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I believe I said a better version of Dave Bush. But lets try to look at the Dave Bush we got. Everyone was raving about his previous season, and peripherals in the vaunted AL East. And I think you will be stunned then.
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He did skip the AFL correct?That's enough to cement his status as lazy, or lacking work ethic? I'm not sure many guys in this organization have played as many games as Lawrie over the last 18+ months.
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I'm pretty sure Gamel hits lefties better than righties, actually. He wouldn't need a platoon partner, he just needs to be able to play defense. I didn't want to go off topic so I was trying to avoid responding, but you are correct about Gamel. I don't get why people assume he should be platooned. Because people don't believe that his platoon splits will maintain and frankly don't know that he's such a good hitter vs lefties. I was guilty of the same logic(or lack thereof) when he came up. He really is a fantastic hitter vs lefties though.
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Is his value likely to go up anymore though? Everyone knows he can hit - the only way it could go up is if he sticks at 2b and he rakes this next season. Even if he hits well this next season, but has to move to a different position - I'd say his value takes a hit.I suppose it's obvious I think so. I think he's a far better fit at 3rd base than he is at 2nd, I think he's going to be a guy who hits 30-35 a year with a .290+/.380/.900 OPS. I think what you saw as a guy getting pushed as a 20 year old in AA suggests that he may not have topped out just yet.
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And I think it's pretty "silly" to argue that his value has peaked as a 20 year old. So there you go. And I think 3rd base is far more likely than a Corner OF for him.
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I just don't get why everyone is talking about him losing a few MPH on his fastball. What out there suggests this is going to happen? He's 29 years old and his arm is recovering from TJ surgery. It usually takes over a year to get the arm completely back. Who says he couldn't gain a MPH on his fastball. First of all, who's "everyone"? I mentioned it to point out there is very little margin for error for a guy like Marcum, much like Bush. And nobody said he can't gain MPH on his fastball, but it's pretty unlikely at this point that he's going to start throwing 90. Losing MPH as you age is a bit more likely than gaining them.
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I'm with you on the 2nd part. Wang's a guy I wanted to take a flier on last year. I always like the Smoltz, Webb type ideas. As for the Gamel and McGehee over Lawrie....that's one I don't think I'll ever get behind. And again, I'm a very big Gamel fan. Not so much a Casey Fan, but I think Lawrie's a unique talent. As I've said, a Ryan Braun type talent. Gamel's still iffy to make it in the big leagues...though I believe he will, and McGehee just seems like he's come off a prolonged career season(s). But those are impossible to prove at this point, so we're just going to have to wait and see. I certainly hope Gamel ends up better than Lawrie however. Especially now.
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For a guy who's best pitch is his change, losing a few MPH on his fastball is the most devastating. He starts throwing his fastball at 85, that change is going to become a LOT less effective. At least that's the case for 99 pct of the pitchers out there.
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David Eckstien plays SS. I'm just talking about in a utility role. And 3rd usually requires a stronger arm than short. I have no idea what type of arm he has, but I have to imagine he's got a good enough one to spell Escobar from time to time.
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Throwing 87 rather than 95 isn't an issue? It sure is when you lose 2-3 MPH on that fastball. Also I guess maybe I'm stubborn. I think huge injuries to pitchers arms the year before we trade for them is KIIINDA a negative and not a plus. Would you like me to get James Andrews to write a published article proclaiming it's better to not have been hurt than to have been hurt? Provide me with evidence that having TJ is a plus? Not just that pitchers can come back from it, but that it's a good thing. And I guess we disagree on the 2 years. I don't know, but you've asked me a couple times now what his issues are. I've given my opinion on what I view them to be. If you don't agree, so be it, but by asking me again, my answer isn't going to change. He's a very solid pitcher. But he's not a guy I'd have given up this ONE player for(actually two, throw in Yo).
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I might not have been referring to you. The Melvin thread was heated all summer. And who on earth would prefer Gomez/Dickerson over LoCain? ??? I'm not sure if that Gomez/Dickerson comment was directed at me or not, but since you're quoting me I have to assume it was. Sure as hell not me. Nor have I ever said that. But look at this ENTIRE thread. Everyone who wants to trade Lawrie, does that automatically mean you "prefer" whoever to Lawrie? Gamel, McGehee? No, I think they're saying they are alright with trading him for pitching help. Obviously I'd rather have Cain than those two.